Gotta Go with KC Over Texans

[SoCal Deek]

Has anyone looked at some of the remaining schedules? Indy and the Chargers both face a gauntlet going forward. Those two teams are almost certainly going to fall out of the playoff race. Which means BOTH Houston and KC could make it in. 

[Kelly to Allen]

19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's almost impossible for them to miss at 11-6. As I say 10-7 is dicey. 

 

Ai says if they just beat the browns and jets, and go 10-7, it's 95% chance buffalo is in. If they just beat Cincinnati this week, they'll be 95% probability at the moment. 

 

If we can't get the 1 seed I'm hoping we keep winning but it sets up perfectly for us to rest everyone against the jets

 

Similar to KC in 23 

Edited 48 minutes ago by Kelly to Allen

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

Ai says if they just beat the browns and jets, and go 10-7, it's 95% chance buffalo is in. 

 

If we can't get the 1 seed I'm hoping we keep winning but it sets up perfectly for us to rest everyone against the jets

 

Similar to KC in 23 

 

Im willing to go with the numbers. My playing with the playoff machine it felt dicier than that. I ran about 5 versions the other night we made it twice and missed 3 times with just wins v CLE and NYJ. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Has anyone looked at some of the remaining schedules? Indy and the Chargers both face a gauntlet going forward. Those two teams are almost certainly going to fall out of the playoff race. Which means BOTH Houston and KC could make it in. 

 

I posted elsewhere but:

 

LAC - 8-4 - PHI, @KC, @DAL, HOU, @DEN - Absolutely brutal schedule - 10-7? Maybe?

IND - 8-4 - @JAX, @SEA, SF, JAX, @HOU - Another tough slate - Also 10-7.  

JAX - 8-4 - IND, NYJ, @DEN, @IND, Tenn - Couple easy home games, 3 tough games - 11-6 best case which would probably take the division

HOU - 7-5 - @KC, ARI, LVR, @LAC, IND - Couple easier games at home, but 3 tough games - 10-7 best case - indy week 18 might be win and in

KC - 6-6 -HOU, LAC, @TEN, DEN, @LVR - Easy road games, and 3 teams they can beat at home - I'd guess 10-7 and if the loss is to denver they're very much in the mix.

BAL - 6-6 - PIT, @CIN, NE, @GB, @PIT - 3 wins would get them to 9-8

PIT - 6-6 - @BAL, MIA, @DET, @CLE, BAL - Could see them splitting and both finishing 9-8, another interesting week 18 scenario. 

[harryS]

The division seems like an extreme longshot so I agree with OP.

 

We're not going to win 3 consecutive road games to make the Super Bowl.  The only way we can play a home game as a wild card is if KC is in the playoffs with us taking out higher seeds so Buffalo can host an AFCG.

[Big Blitz]

Not happening 

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

One bonus I just thought of to Houston winning - we ideally want to be the 6 seed if we're assuming Baltimore wins the AFCN. For that to happen we ideally want Houston tying or beating our record. That means we travel probably to Indy or maybe Jacksonville in the wildcard round. That's a preferable outcome to traveling to Baltimore IMO.

[LEBills]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Im willing to go with the numbers. My playing with the playoff machine it felt dicier than that. I ran about 5 versions the other night we made it twice and missed 3 times with just wins v CLE and NYJ. 

yea per New York Times if we just win the Browns and Jets games we have a 50% chance of making the playoffs. If we win just one more game than that, our odds go up to 77% or more depending on the opponent. 

 

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

One bonus I just thought of to Houston winning - we ideally want to be the 6 seed if we're assuming Baltimore wins the AFCN. For that to happen we ideally want Houston tying or beating our record. That means we travel probably to Indy or maybe Jacksonville in the wildcard round. That's a preferable outcome to traveling to Baltimore IMO.

Honestly, I could see a Chiefs at Bills, or Bills at Ravens AFCCG. It’s still an “I have to see it to believe it” scenario that Bo Nix, CJ Stroud/TLaw/Indiana Jones, Drake Maye could beat an Allen, Mahomes or Lamar in a single elimination game.

[GunnerBill]

29 minutes ago, LEBills said:

yea per New York Times if we just win the Browns and Jets games we have a 50% chance of making the playoffs. If we win just one more game than that, our odds go up to 77% or more depending on the opponent. 

 

 

Yep THAT is more in line with what the playoff machine gives me.

 

11-6 we almost never miss. 10-7 is 50/50. It is dicey.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Im willing to go with the numbers. My playing with the playoff machine it felt dicier than that. I ran about 5 versions the other night we made it twice and missed 3 times with just wins v CLE and NYJ. 

I think it’s 75% ish getting in with 10 the way you’re thinking of it.  It’s 90+% chance if you give us the browns and jets games and leave the other three up in the air which isn’t quite the same thing because probabilistically we’d probably be expected to win one of those other 3 if they’re left blank 

Edited 8 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

yea per New York Times if we just win the Browns and Jets games we have a 50% chance of making the playoffs. If we win just one more game than that, our odds go up to 77% or more depending on the 

That’s interesting I’m getting 76% when I do just the jets and browns wins and all losses for the rest. I gave us Philly because I figure an nfc win is the least impactful and it goes up to 99% with 11 wins 

 

do you have wins filled in for other teams too?  The probability of 10 wins getting us in is hard to conceptualize right now haha but 77% for 11 wins seems wayyyy too low to me..  it’s nearly impossible to get three other wildcard competitors to 11 wins with how many games they have against eachother and on top of that there’s also the angle where the Texans win the division if they get 11 

Edited 8 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

That’s interesting I’m getting 76% when I do just the jets and browns wins and all losses for the rest. I gave us Philly because I figure an nfc win is the least impactful and it goes up to 99% with 11 wins 

 

do you have wins filled in for other teams too?  The probability of 10 wins getting us in is hard to conceptualize right now haha but 77% for 11 wins seems wayyyy too low to me..  it’s nearly impossible to get three other wildcard competitors to 11 wins with how many games they have against eachother and on top of that there’s also the angle where the Texans win the division if they get 11 

 

I actually agree 77% for 11 wins seems low. There seems almost nothing realistic you can do with the playoff machine to get the Bills to 11 AND have them miss out. 

 

But I have had another play with us at 10-7.... I repeat.... 10 wins is dicey.

[LEBills]

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

That’s interesting I’m getting 76% when I do just the jets and browns wins and all losses for the rest. I gave us Philly because I figure an nfc win is the least impactful and it goes up to 99% with 11 wins 

 

do you have wins filled in for other teams too?  The probability of 10 wins getting us in is hard to conceptualize right now haha but 77% for 11 wins seems wayyyy too low to me..  it’s nearly impossible to get three other wildcard competitors to 11 wins with how many games they have against eachother and on top of that there’s also the angle where the Texans win the division if they get 11 

Nah I just did the Bills games and that’s what you get. 50% for 10 wins. 77% if the other win is the Bengals actually, I guess because we really aren’t competing with the Bengals for a wildcard.
 

Honestly I think 10 wins gets us in easy, I’m not too worried about missing the playoffs this year which is why I want the Chiefs dead haha.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 hours ago, LEBills said:

Nah I just did the Bills games and that’s what you get. 50% for 10 wins. 77% if the other win is the Bengals actually, I guess because we really aren’t competing with the Bengals for a wildcard.
 

Honestly I think 10 wins gets us in easy, I’m not too worried about missing the playoffs this year which is why I want the Chiefs dead haha.

So weird I’ve tried that many times and that’s just not what I get from the same site 😂 I’m getting 76 every time and 99 for an 11th win if it’s eagles and >99% if it’s an afc win 

 

funny enough the chiefs Texans game has almost zero impact on the odds and the eagles chargers game is huge which nobody is really talking about 

Edited 3 hours ago by Generic_Bills_Fan

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

8 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Has anyone looked at some of the remaining schedules? Indy and the Chargers both face a gauntlet going forward. Those two teams are almost certainly going to fall out of the playoff race. Which means BOTH Houston and KC could make it in. 

Colts definitely will make it in and i want them in because they are very beatable. Their strong start will propel them into the postseason. They just need to go 3-2 (and outside shot of 2-3 will have them at 10 wins.) 

[HappyDays]

41 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Nah I just did the Bills games and that’s what you get. 50% for 10 wins. 77% if the other win is the Bengals actually, I guess because we really aren’t competing with the Bengals for a wildcard.
 

Honestly I think 10 wins gets us in easy, I’m not too worried about missing the playoffs this year which is why I want the Chiefs dead haha.

 

I'm getting a different result with the NYT playoff simulator through the Athletic. If we beat Browns and Jets and lose the other 3 games, they have us 75% to make the playoffs. Add any other win and it shows >99%. So to guarantee ourselves a spot we need to handle our business against the two clearly inferior opponents left on our schedule, and beat 1 of Bengals, Pats, or Eagles. Ideally we'll beat 2 of them and then can rest starters against the Jets.

 

Edited 6 hours ago by HappyDays

[B-Man]

 

 

The Texans can lose to the Chargers or the Colts,  we NEVER want the Chiefs to win.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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[Kelly to Allen]

9 hours ago, LEBills said:

yea per New York Times if we just win the Browns and Jets games we have a 50% chance of making the playoffs. If we win just one more game than that, our odds go up to 77% or more depending on the opponent. 

 

Honestly, I could see a Chiefs at Bills, or Bills at Ravens AFCCG. It’s still an “I have to see it to believe it” scenario that Bo Nix, CJ Stroud/TLaw/Indiana Jones, Drake Maye could beat an Allen, Mahomes or Lamar in a single elimination game.

 

When I asked ai it said 95 %... So maybe I'm wrong. My mistake. 

 

 

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm getting a different result with the NYT playoff simulator through the Athletic. If we beat Browns and Jets and lose the other 3 games, they have us 75% to make the playoffs. Add any other win and it shows >99%. So to guarantee ourselves a spot we need to handle our business against the two clearly inferior opponents left on our schedule, and beat 1 of Bengals, Pats, or Eagles. Ideally we'll beat 2 of them and then can rest starters against the Jets.

 

 

I think the ai is going by favorites in isolation of a given outcome 

 

So if you isolated Cleveland & the jets as wins already. The algorithm is probably going to say it's x % likely you'll win 1 of those other 3, then calculates the other favorites and that's why AI says buffalo is 95% probability if they just beat Cincinnati ( in that moment) or you already give 10 wins with Cleveland and the jets.

 

There's probably somebody here more competent in stats/ probability that can explain it better than me here

 

I played with the machine for about 20 minutes. Just gave wins for the jets and browns, and there was a couple games before week 18, and one week 18 game that kept Buffalo out. 

 

Beating KC , Steelers & Ravens was critical based on how the bracket came out. The KC game was way bigger than I realized at the time given how things unfolded. Gotta wonder if the bills staff saw the bracket at the time and saw how bigger that game was. They seemed highly prepared mentally 

 

But KC doesn't care and is holding stuff back in the regular season according to Matt verderame and nick wright so I understand why they lost 😂 

 

Edited 35 minutes ago by Kelly to Allen