Winning the toss and deferring

[Simon]

3 hours ago, JMM said:

I understand why McDermott likes to do this. Hopeful of making an early statement and double dipping at the end of the half and start of 3rd. BUT, this year's D is so bad, so putrid, it's simply a poor decision now. They tend to allow a long td drive. Gives the other team and their crowd hope, puts immediate pressure on the O and just gives a bad vibe to start the games. At this point if we win the toss I think we should take the ball!

 

No vibe that exists is worth more than an extra possession in the 2nd half of a football game.

[BuffaloRebound]

2 hours ago, Low Positive said:

 

This is right as the snap is occurring, LoS in the 31:

shouldn’t the Tight end be up on the LOS?  or does the guy coming in motion count as covering up the Tackle?  

[Simon]

1 minute ago, BuffaloRebound said:

shouldn’t the Tight end be up on the LOS?

 

If that TE's helmet is in front of or aligned with the Center's hip, he's considered to be on the LoS.

[Cash]

3 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

That i still haven't scene a replay on it.

Really? They showed one on the broadcast. If the unofficial TV line was accurate, he was clearly offside. I stopped being mad at the refs the second I saw it. (Don’t worry, I got mad at them again later.)

[ChrisWatson#21]

Most games are decided in the second half.  First half is meaningless other than for betting purposes in today’s NFL.  

[BuffaloRebound]

2 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

If that TE's helmet is in front of or aligned with the Center's hip, he's considered to be on the LoS.

The Tackle’s helmet is aligned with the Centers hip.  The tight End is at least a foot behind the Tackle .  The Tight End looks like he’s aligned with the Guards hip not the Center.  Perhaps that’s why Rousseau was lined up in the neutral zone.  

[The Jokeman]

3 hours ago, Low Positive said:

 

This is right as the snap is occurring, LoS in the 31:

Based on that photo I can't tell as would appear the who Dline is in neutral zone.

[Thurman#1]

7 hours ago, JMM said:

I understand why McDermott likes to do this. Hopeful of making an early statement and double dipping at the end of the half and start of 3rd. BUT, this year's D is so bad, so putrid, it's simply a poor decision now. They tend to allow a long td drive. Gives the other team and their crowd hope, puts immediate pressure on the O and just gives a bad vibe to start the games. At this point if we win the toss I think we should take the ball!

 

 

First, the defense is better than the offense the past couple of games.

 

Second, your conclusion doesn't follow from the premise, IMO.

 

It's understood within the framework of deferring to double dip at the half that the other team having the ball first is valuable to them and potentially consequential. It's a tradeoff. A reasonable one, IMO.

3 hours ago, ChrisWatson#21 said:

Most games are decided in the second half.  First half is meaningless other than for betting purposes in today’s NFL.  

 

Um, not at all.

 

The first half puts your team ahead, or behind. It frames the second half. It's very very very meaningful.

[Doc Brown]

I always like the idea of double dipping and stealing a possession.  It's a tiny advantage in a game of inches.  The exception for me is if the weather is supposed to be worse in the 2nd half.

[harryS]

9 hours ago, JMM said:

I understand why McDermott likes to do this. Hopeful of making an early statement and double dipping at the end of the half and start of 3rd. BUT, this year's D is so bad, so putrid, it's simply a poor decision now. They tend to allow a long td drive. Gives the other team and their crowd hope, puts immediate pressure on the O and just gives a bad vibe to start the games. At this point if we win the toss I think we should take the ball!

 

Did you watch the Lions-Chiefs game?  Detroit thought similar to you since they have a banged up secondary.  Won the toss, got the ball, and kicked a FG.  The Chiefs eventually double-dipped for a two score lead that KC never came close to relinquishing.

 

Deferring is almost always the correct play.  (I'm leaving room for exceptions because one should not speak in absolutes, but I'm talking ~98% of the time, deferring is correct).  It's not just about giving yourself a chance to double-dip.  It's to guarantee that the opponent doesn't double-dip against us (barring a miracle on-side kick after halftime).

 

McDermott has lots of issues.  LOTS of issues.  But deferring isn't one of them.

[reddogblitz]

Deffering on the road also gives the visiting offense a possession without a loud crowd since a lot of the crowd are not back in their seats and ready to howl on the first possession of the 2nd half.

 

However I think the OPs argument makes sense too.  Our defense is the weaker of the 2 units hands down. Keep them off the field as much as possible. One way to do this is to keep them at the start of the game and give them a lead to hold.

 

Normally I like getting the football 1st on the 2nd half but since our defense can't stop anybody I might reconsider.

 

Get our best unit out there first. I like it. We want the ball and we're gonna score.

[Dan]

This issue has been discussed before… it’s always better to defer and “double dip” if possible.  The only reason this is still an issue here is because our defense, seemingly, always gives up an opening drive score!  
 

So I ask, would it be better to take the ball and score first.  Then let the other team score.  And be 7-7.   Or is it better the let them score first, then we score. And be 7-7.  ..but in the second scenario, we’re assured to get the ball to start the 3rd quarter. 
 

You just have to accept the fact that our opponents will score on their opening drive.  It’s just part of the game plan.  I’m not sure why?  But it sure seems to be. 

[2003Contenders]

The funny thing about this argument is that you never know the flow of the game. In fact, there was no "double dip" Monday night as the Falcons ended the first half with the ball -- where the Bills (as we all remember) were very fortunate not to have given up a TD there. In essence, it was the Falcons who had the extra possession -- in the first half!

 

I know Bill Bellichick always said he liked getting the ball first in the 2nd half (especially when he was on the road) because many fans are still in the bathroom or getting refreshments, so the stadium is often much quieter then.

 

[Jauronimo]

13 hours ago, bubba2018 said:

the bills defense played better in the second half, might as well take the ball

The offense consistently sucked for all 60 minutes.  Might as well forfeit.