Reasons for optimism, has needle moved at an improved roster this year?

[mannc]

6 hours ago, gobills404 said:

There’s dozens of specific reasons we could be better and dozens why we could be worse than last year. Too many for me to want to list all of them. The general factors will be:

 

- How much our young players develop throughout the course of the season 

- If we’re healthier on defense and/or less healthy on offense compared to last year

- How well our free agent signings gel (or don’t gel) in a new system 

- Unforeseen regressions from players that were on the team last year (e.g. Kincaid, Oliver, Rasul last year)

- An underrated one is how much Babich and Brady improve after their first full seasons as coordinators 

 

Im trending more towards us being better than last year, but I’ve also told myself that before 4 of the last 5 seasons. And the one season I thought we would be worse was last year and it ended up being our best season of the McBeane/Allen era. The truth is we really won’t have a good idea until a few months into the season at least.

Last year the Bills had one of the highest (positive) turnover differentials in NFL history, including almost no offensive turnovers (not a single lost fumble by a receiver or RB).  It’s not clear how much of that was luck, but it’s going to be almost impossible to repeat.

Edited August 28 by mannc

[WNYFAN1]

13 minutes ago, mannc said:

Last year the Bills had one of the highest (positive) turnover differentials in NFL history, including almost no offensive turnovers (not a single lost fumble by a receiver or RB).  It’s not clear how much of that was luck, but it’s going to be almost impossible to repeat.

This. It would be astonishing if they could repeat this feat. Just way too much luck involved.

[DCofNC]

12 hours ago, Lost said:

It's essentially the same team as last year.   If they can perform at the same level then theoretically they should get back to the AFCCG

 

Reasons for optimism.   

-Keon looks like he might make a second year leap after his great camp.

-Matt Milano is healthy to start the season and is playing well.

 

Reasons for concern

-Rookies unlikely to make much of an impact this year allowing other teams to gain ground.  

-Cole Bishop is still a big question mark going into the season.  

-It's still the same team that hasn't beaten the Chiefs in the playoffs.  

 

End thread

[Sierra Foothills]

25 minutes ago, mannc said:

Last year the Bills had one of the highest (positive) turnover differentials in NFL history, including almost no offensive turnovers (not a single lost fumble by a receiver or RB).  It’s not clear how much of that was luck, but it’s going to be almost impossible to repeat.

 

11 minutes ago, WNYFAN1 said:

This. It would be astonishing if they could repeat this feat. Just way too much luck involved.

 

What you guys say about turnover differential is true and there's bound to be a regression to the mean average but... since McDermott became Head Coach, the Bills lead the NFL in defensive takeaways with 252. The next closest teams are the Steelers with 240 and the Vikings with 229.

 

The Bills will again have a positive turnover ratio and will likely be among the league leaders because McDermott has a proven track record of being able to take the ball away and Josh has really embraced protecting possession.

 

[mannc]

15 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

What you guys say about turnover differential is true and there's bound to be a regression to the mean average but... since McDermott became Head Coach, the Bills lead the NFL in defensive takeaways with 252. The next closest teams are the Steelers with 240 and the Vikings with 229.

 

The Bills will again have a positive turnover ratio and will likely be among the league leaders because McDermott has a proven track record of being able to take the ball away and Josh has really embraced protecting possession.

 

As I recall, there were quite a few fumbles, but all were recovered by the Bills.  That’s what will be hard to duplicate.  But what you say is true…much of the positive turnover differential is the result of design, on both sides of the ball.

[Lost]

8 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Below is a rough breakdown of the initial 53 man rosters from the last two years. It doesn't include Maxwell Hairston and Michael Hoecht who should both contribute significantly and are inarguably big talent upgrades to the roster.

 

Bills Season Opening 53 Man Rosters

2024	2025
Mack Hollins	Joshua Palmer
M Valdes-Scantling	Elijah Moore
	Tyrell Shavers
Quintin Morris	Jackson Hawes
Von Miller	Joey Bosa
Casey Toohill	Landon Jackson
Dawuane Smoot	TJ Sanders
Austin Johnson	Deone Walker
Edefuan Ulofoshio	Shaq Thompson
Nicholas Morrow
Baylon Spector
Rasul Douglas	Tre’Davious White
Kaiir Elam	Dorian Strong
Mike Edwards	Jordan Hancock
Sam Martin	Brad Robbins

 

It looks to me like over the course of the season:

• WR: Even without the presumed improvement of Keon Coleman that the Bills WRs will be improved
• TE: Kincaid can only be better than last year and Hawes is an upgrade over Q. Morris
• D-line: Will be better than last year's, especially with Michael Hoecht returning
• LB: Will depend on the health of Milano and Bernard, Thompson can't be worse than Spector, et al
• CB: Should be better... Douglas and Elam were terrible last year.
• Safety: Should be better because Bishop can't be worse than Hamlin and has a good ceiling. I have high hopes for Hancock

The Bills invested heavily in defense with 6 draft picks, 3 significant free agent signings, and the hiring of Senior Defensive Assistant Ryan Nielsen and Co-DL Coach Jason Rebrovich. Based solely on the roster and coaching staff (not factoring in injuries, strength of schedule and improvement of opponents) I'm certainly expecting improvement this year... especially defensively.

 

Also with the presumed upgrade at Special Teams Coordinator (Chris Tabor over Matthew Smiley), I expect last year's 28th ranked special teams unit (Rick Gosselin Ranking) to be improved.

 

7 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

I don’t think its the same team.

Sanders, healthy Milano, Bosa, Walker, Hoecht and Ogun make a very different front 7.

Then in the secondary, 2 of the 4 starters are new.

 

 

I hear your arguments but Hoecht and Ogunjobi wont even be here for a third of the season.   Our 1st round draft pick isn't gonna be available for a third of the season.    The rest of our rookie D-lineman are at this point rotational depth guys.   The ravens drafted what is going to be a day 1 starter at safety in Starks and another 2nd rd steal in Mike Green who certainly has elite traits.  The Chiefs have drafted two day 1 starters in Simmons and Lott.   I think it's safe to say our competition's rookies have a leg up on us at least in terms of playing time.  

 

We still don't know what we're gonna get with Bosa.   He looked good in camp but has an injury history.   Hopefully he doesn't flame out like Von did.  That's why I'm keeping my expectations low for him.   Same with Tre White.  Last year everyone was saying he was washed.   He did have a decent camp this year but can he carry it over to the regular season?  Can he stay healthy til we get the rookie back and up to speed?   Bishop has had an up and down camp but it appears he's earned the starting job over Hamlin for now.  Until he shows some quality safety play on the field however I would consider it a sidegrade.   Maybe we had it too good with Hyde and Poyer all those years because everything we've had since then has been milquetoast.

 

I'm reserving judgement on Josh Palmer.   Despite all the separator talk, he has yet to light the league on fire.   If he were to surpass the 5 TD catches Mack Hollins had with us last season I would be impressed.   At the end of the day we're still trying to replicate Digg's production.  Our WR group was bottom 5 in the league last year so it would be hard not improve on that.   I'm sure one of our guys is gonna step up and have a big time year, not quite sure who but my money is on Keon.  

 

I'm excited for the season, just trying to keep my expectations tempered.   We got pretty lucky with turnover differential last year which helped our offense get more points on the board but that will be tough to replicate.  

[chris heff]

12 hours ago, Walking Tall said:

Bosa, Hoecht, Hairston, a full year of Cole, the two rookie DT’s, Palmer and Moore and this is essentially the same team as last year? There are other things like a (knock on wood) healthy Milano and possible a full year of Samuel as well.

 

 

 

 

This is exactly what I wanted to write. 

[Sierra Foothills]

3 minutes ago, Lost said:

I hear your arguments but Hoecht and Ogunjobi wont even be here for a third of the season.   Our 1st round draft pick isn't gonna be available for a third of the season.    The rest of our rookie D-lineman are at this point rotational depth guys.   The ravens drafted what is going to be a day 1 starter at safety in Starks and another 2nd rd steal in Mike Green who certainly has elite traits.  The Chiefs have drafted two day 1 starters in Simmons and Lott.   I think it's safe to say our competition's rookies have a leg up on us at least in terms of playing time.  

 

We still don't know what we're gonna get with Bosa.   He looked good in camp but has an injury history.   Hopefully he doesn't flame out like Von did.  That's why I'm keeping my expectations low for him.   Same with Tre White.  Last year everyone was saying he was washed.   He did have a decent camp this year but can he carry it over to the regular season?  Can he stay healthy til we get the rookie back and up to speed?   Bishop has had an up and down camp but it appears he's earned the starting job over Hamlin for now.  Until he shows some quality safety play on the field however I would consider it a sidegrade.   Maybe we had it too good with Hyde and Poyer all those years because everything we've had since then has been milquetoast.

 

I'm reserving judgement on Josh Palmer.   Despite all the separator talk, he has yet to light the league on fire.   If he were to surpass the 5 TD catches Mack Hollins had with us last season I would be impressed.   At the end of the day we're still trying to replicate Digg's production.  Our WR group was bottom 5 in the league last year so it would be hard not improve on that.   I'm sure one of our guys is gonna step up and have a big time year, not quite sure who but my money is on Keon.  

 

I'm excited for the season, just trying to keep my expectations tempered.   We got pretty lucky with turnover differential last year which helped our offense get more points on the board but that will be tough to replicate.  

 

I agree with most of what you say.

 

I did say that I expected to be better "not factoring in injuries, strength of schedule and improvement of opponents" and I would also say that the performance of young players is highly unpredictable... and that goes for the opposition as well.

 

[chris heff]

9 hours ago, NickelCity said:

 

We are not a great week 1 team, and the Ravens are a hell of a matchup. Definite possibility we get smoked

And the Ravens are not a good playoff team, so there is that.

[JP51]

My feelings/nonprofessional assessment:

 

Reasons for optimism 

 

IF Keon translates what the hype has been to production

IF Milano stays healthy

IF Bosa regains form AND stays healthy

IF Kincaid gets over sophomore slump and turns into a top 10 receiving TE

IF one or two of our new picks click and surprise us

 

Reasons to not

 

Current Injury situation

DB's look like a fire drill

Lack of apparent progress by Bishop

Lack of apparent improvement in interior DL

 

TBD in the regular season cause pre season judgement/performance don't cut it

 

Concern with overall defensive scheme, philosophy and coaching...  Pre Season is not the time to unveil major changes, but will it

Tyler Bass looks shaky to me not sure what to think

Special teams again looked shaky 

Shavers looked really good but will he have a chance to make an impact and then translate

Will Samuel produce or sit in an ice bath

Does Bosa help Rousseau

 

Lots of if's here as well as "fan who really wants to win it all and tends to over react" things too lol... in the end, we have Josh and as long as we have Josh we have a chance... lets hope our concerns are unfounded and the IFs come to fruition... 

Edited August 28 by JP51

[Mat68]

14 hours ago, Jistafan said:

Other than a heavy defensive draft, and no eye popping free agent’s acquired. What’s changed to make you hopeful for up coming season?

Top 5 offense improved outside.  Defensive line revamped and a healthy second level improves the overall defense. 

[MJS]

Receivers are better. DBs are better. Interior defensive line is better. Pass rushers are better. Linebackers are healthy. The roster looks better to me, and has more upside with younger and more athletic players. But with the youth comes more variance.

[Sierra Foothills]

14 hours ago, Lost said:

It's essentially the same team as last year.

 

12 hours ago, Walking Tall said:

Bosa, Hoecht, Hairston, a full year of Cole, the two rookie DT’s, Palmer and Moore and this is essentially the same team as last year? There are other things like a (knock on wood) healthy Milano and possible a full year of Samuel as well.

 

10 minutes ago, chris heff said:

This is exactly what I wanted to write. 

 

Per the chart below I think the Bills have significantly changed their roster:

 

9 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Bills Season Opening 53 Man Rosters

2024	2025
Mack Hollins	Joshua Palmer
M Valdes-Scantling	Elijah Moore
	Tyrell Shavers
Quintin Morris	Jackson Hawes
Von Miller	Joey Bosa
Casey Toohill	Landon Jackson
Dawuane Smoot	TJ Sanders
Austin Johnson	Deone Walker
Edefuan Ulofoshio	Shaq Thompson
Nicholas Morrow
Baylon Spector
Rasul Douglas	Tre’Davious White
Kaiir Elam	Dorian Strong
Mike Edwards	Jordan Hancock
Sam Martin	Brad Robbins

 

 

[chris heff]

2 hours ago, H2o said:

Any time you have JA17, you have a reason for optimism. 

 

QB - MVP (should be at least 2 times by now, but still that dude) 

RB - Same group that complemented each other well last year. Cook is explosive and Ty is one of the best 3rd down backs in the NFL.

WR - I see the sum of these parts being greater than the sum of the parts from last year. We need a healthy Shakir though.

TE - Hopefully Kincaid is fully healthy and finally makes that leap. Knox is ole reliable at this point. Hawes, well, who knows, but I heard he can block. 

OL - Same top end group, and Josh still makes an OL look even better than they are. 

DE - Bosa is a clear upgrade over Von. Not sold on Lattimer, but we'll see when he returns from suspension. Jackson is another mammoth human in the fold. I think we're better overall. 

DT - The additions of Sanders and Walker upgrade this group. A healthy DaQuan should help too. We're better. 

LB - A healthy Milano focused and flying all over the place again is a massive upgrade. Hopefully Williams takes a step forward. Andreesen is about the same as Spector, just healthy. As long as Milano is that dude and healthy, we'll be better. 

CB - We have Benford, a true lock down type of CB. Then, we have question marks. Hopefully White can make it back and be somewhat effective. I'm not expecting much out of Hairston with the injury and IR thing. He's missed too much time. McD won't trust him with big minutes, if he comes back this year at all. That being said, I really like the prospects of Dorian Stong in this scheme. I just think he fits what we do and will grow as the year progresses. Still, big question marks at CB2 right now and the Chiefs are getting their felon back this year.

S - Rapp is injury prone and gambles too much. Can Bishop put if together? I can hear an Eminem song in the background. Hamlin will be out there taking bad angles, blowing coverages, and missing tackles. We have Cam Lewis, a McD favorite. I REALLY like the prospects of Hancock on this team. It will just take time and reps to get him acclimated. Another question mark group. 

 

Our Secondary outside of Benford is the weakest link on this team. Hopefully the DL can pressure the QB this year so the opposing teams can't pick us apart. 

 

P - Seemingly improved 

K - Bass. Will we get Bass-O- Matic or Run-His-Bass-Out-Of-Town? Same. 

Who is Lattimer?

[I'm Spartacus]

3 minutes ago, chris heff said:

Who is Lattimer?

He's the guy in the movie "The Program". Steroid freak.

[thurst44]

Given they went 13-4 in a season that seemed like at least a reset, and it's hard not to believe they quietly had a season of improvement, I'm optimistic...

 

Optimism:

- Coleman and Kincaid more likely to improve than regress and Kincaid's second season was just weird

- One of the best O-lines in football (and perfectly paired with Allen) and they quietly have a lot of great depth

- Thoughtfully paired WR room: Shakir (high YAC, catches everything), Coleman (Contested catch dude), Palmer (separation), Moore/Samuel (speed), Shavers (big, reliable target)

- D-line very promising: Sanders and Walker look great, Jackson might be slower to start, Bosa looked like dominant self in small flashes, additions should push Rousseau and Oliver to another level, Solomon could be a secret stud (or could be gone week 7), Hoecht has looked amazing and his swiss army knife-ness could change the whole defensive dynamic

- On that note, Rousseau is poised for a breakout

- Sneakily strong and deep LB room: we've never seen Milano/Bernard together for long stretch and Milano looked great in pre-season, Williams could be a future solid starter, Thompson is a former solid starter and Andreessen plays with fire in games making for some impressive depth. And Jenkins and Ciarlo on PS even looked great.

- Christian Benford just keeps getting better and better and may jump to all-pro level (if not already there... a lot of his metrics were off the charts)

- Jackson Hawes could add to both the run and pass game with his blocking ability

- ST coverage plus Codrington on returns led by well-respected new ST coach could be huge, especially with this year's changes.

- Babich's plans could take flight in year 2

- Oh, right, that guy wearing 17 is likely to still be pretty damn good

 

Pessimism:

- Secondary Beyond Benford: I feel confident about Tre's return, but he is 30 coming off multiple injuries, we don't know Hairston's NFL career and even if he comes back it could be a lost season, Taron had a relatively down year so is it just an anomaly, Rapp is a great tackler, but can he stay healthy, Bishop's a question mark, Hamlin is overly maligned here, but would prefer he not have to start...

- Babich could just be a bad defensive coach

- Kicking game is a question mark: Bass looks like he's out of his yipsy phase, but still has too many bad moments. Robbins was the worst punter in his one healthy season

- Maybe Allen and Kincaid just have zero on-field chemistry

- Can O-line stay incredibly healthy for THREE seasons and depth, while promising, has very little experience

- Injuries can happen at any time and if we're talking Super Bowl, as much as we want to say "Super Bowl or Bust," Dion is right... 31/32 teams go home sad. You can have an amazing team and one bad day or just bad luck (i.e. a delayed wild card game meaning two days fewer rest combined with the entire middle of defense hurt against the best QB/TE combo in the game)... or as great as your team is, one other team could just be better

 

[Sierra Foothills]

Roster Changes 2024 to 2025

Player	Age	2025	Age
Mack Hollins	31	Joshua Palmer	25
M Valdes-Scantling	30	Elijah Moore	25
		Tyrell Shavers	26
Quintin Morris	26	Jackson Hawes	24
Von Miller	36	Joey Bosa	30
Casey Toohill	29	Landon Jackson	22
Dawuane Smoot	30	TJ Sanders	22
Austin Johnson	31	Deone Walker	21
Edefuan Ulofoshio	25	Shaq Thompson	31
Nicholas Morrow	30
Baylon Spector	26
Rasul Douglas	29	Tre’Davious White	30
Kaiir Elam	24	Dorian Strong	23
Mike Edwards	29	Jordan Hancock	22
Sam Martin	35	Brad Robbins	26
		Chase Lundt	25
Average Age	29.36	Average Age	25.14

 

To all those whining (crying?) about the Jordan Phillips and Jordan Poyer additions to the PRACTICE SQUAD, if you compare the 14 roster spots that changed from 2024 to 2025, you can see that the Bills significantly moved towards younger players with the average age of those 14 players 4.22 years younger.

 

This means that the Bills have lots of developmental players on the active roster so they balanced that out with proven veterans on the practice squad.

 

But even though there was a large influx of rookies and younger players, let's cry about adding veteran leadership.

 

Edited August 28 by Sierra Foothills

[Gregg]

Nice breakdown of the AFC.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/ranking-2025-afc-contenders-by-tiers-here-s-who-could-challenge-patrick-mahomes-travis-kelce-chiefs-in-afc/ar-AA1LpLtr?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=1d8e37a8f36240699f8156ca2c2ece39&ei=13

[Jerome007]

I was totally psyched out when McGovern was signed and then they drafted O'Torrence. Fans might not care about OLine, but we all know how they make a HUGE difference. When they click, they make others look good, and  that's what happened.

 

Well, I feel the same with the new DLinemen. Sure, the secondary is suspect, but that DLine is way stronger now... especially come week 7. Just having Bosa and Rousseau at the same time is quite the scare for opponents.

[billsfan89]

I think the offense will likely be about as good as it was last year. I think if Keon could take a step up and Kincaid return to his rookie year form that's gonna even out any natural regression this team might have provided reasonable health. Even if the offense is 5% less potent it's still a top 5 offense in the league. Special Teams is where I think some positive improvements will happen. I think the new ST coach is going to get this ST until back to pushing a top 10 unit as opposed to the 20th or so ranked unit it has been. 

 

Defense is where the positive improvement I think will be the difference. I think the defensive line will be massively improved. I think the pass rush will be a tick better but I think the D-line esp when the PED Twins come back will be a much more physical force. The D-line last year against better more physical offensive lines (besides Detroit for some reason) did get run on consistently. I think that happens less this year along with an improved pass rush. The LB core is mostly the same a top 10 unit there but with Milano there from the start that could be a difference in production at the second level. 

 

It's the secondary where I am still not sold that the team's moves will be enough. I am not going to say this team didn't do anything in the secondary because that's dishonest. But the biggest piece they added in Mad Max is on IR to start the season. Tre over 2024 Douglas I am a little shaky on how much of an upgrade that is and it is mostly due to durability. Then safety I liked that they drafted a mid-rounder there and signed Forrest to try to add some depth/competition. But Forrest was a complete bust and now we are counting on Cole Bishop to be an improvement over Hamlin. Luckily Hamlin is still here for depth but I don't want to go into a season needing to start him. 

 

TLDR: Offense even with slight regression should still be top notch but the progression in Special Teams and hopefully the defense should get the Bills to be overall improved but the secondary remains a concern despite some attempts to improve it.