How many wins do the Bills get without Josh?

[folz]

As far as how the Bills would fare without Josh, well you first have to define your terms. Is it if Josh got injured early and we had to play Trubisky all year? Or is it because Josh left Buffalo or was injured in the offseason and Beane had either, or both, free agency and the draft to replace him? The OP set the terms at average QB play. Well, last year, the most average QBs were Matthew Stafford and C.J. Stroud.

 

Player     Total Yards rank    TDs rank         INTs rank          

Stafford           17th                   16th              16th most INTs

Stroud             16th                   17th               8th most INTs    

 

So, how would the Bills fare with average QB play? Well Stafford and Stroud both led their teams to 10 wins last year. 

No question, the Bills currently have a better RB room, TE room, and offensive line than the Texans or Rams. While the Texans and Rams have the better WR rooms (provided they stay healthy). The Texans and Rams defenses both gave up more points than the Bills defense (and that was a down year for Buffalo). So, I see no reason why either of those two QBs couldn't still have at least 10 wins with this Bills roster.

 

And if you think Stafford and Stroud were only average last year due to their WR injuries, well the next few guys on the list (ranking ~18-22, which would be slightly below average) and their 2024 records were: Jayden Daniels (12 wins), Caleb Williams (5 wins), Kirk Cousins (7 wins), Jordan Love (11 wins), and Jalen Hurts (14 wins). I still think most of those guys could get us to at least 9 wins.

 

Last year, the Bills defense was 12th in points allowed. It was definitely a down year for the defense, but we should be much improved this season (imo). But, of the 7 QBs noted above, only 3 of their teams allowed fewer points than the Bills. So, our defense is stronger than most of those teams...meaning that would actually help at least 4 of those QBs to fare better in Buffalo---or at least it would even out if you think their WRs or whatever are better). But how many of those teams are overall more talented than the Bills, position-by-position? Philly and ...who?

 

Plus McDermott took a much, much less-talented team with Tyrod Taylor as the QB (who I wouldn't even say was average) to 9 wins. Yes, it was an easier schedule than 2025 will be, but he was a first year head coach at the time and just look at the difference in overall talent between the 2017 team and the 2025 team. Our top receiver that year was Charles Clay with 558 yards. The receiving leaders in order of yards were: Clay, LeSean McCoy, Deonte Thompson, Nick O'Leary, Zay Jones, Jordan Matthews, Kelvin Benjamin, and Andre Holmes. I don't know about you, but Shakir, Palmer, Coleman, Moore, Samuel, Kincaid, Knox, Cook, Davis, Johnson, etc. looks a hell of a lot better than that 2017 mess. Yes, we had Shady, but our #2 RB was Mike Tolbert. How about Jordan Mills vs. Spencer Brown? Etc. Etc. Even on defense, a lot of the good players (Tre, Milano, Hyde, Poyer, Alexander) were rookies or in their first year with the Bills. And it was a new defense (and offense) for everyone. All new coaches, a new GM, no culture established yet, supposed star players jettisoned (Watkins, Dareus), etc. If he could make 9 wins with that mess, what's to say he couldn't do the same with a significantly better roster?

 

Let's face it guys. The Bills are a very talented team beyond just Josh Allen. A quick look at a few 2025 O-line rankings had Bills as S-tier (elite), #2, #4, #8. Our RB room is top 5-7 in the league. Our TEs are above-average. In my opinion, this is easy a 9+ win team with or without Josh (as long as the QB play is at least league average). Now if you say we had to run the year with Trubisky...well, it would depend on if he played at league average or not. If he did, again, probably a 9- or 10-win team. If he stunk up the joint, yeah, we'd probably have a below .500 record, but that wouldn't be based on team talent, but on poor QB play. But, if the defense improves to a normal McDermott standard, even with poor-quarterbacking (provided it's not Peterman-esque 5 INTs/game) we would still at least be competitive in more than half of our games. 

 

And as others have said, what team that has a generational, future-HOF QB wouldn't see a drop-off if he were out. You can only really compare the situation to a Mahomes-, or Rodgers-type of player in their prime. The drop-off from many QBs to their backup will never be as significant as the drop-off from a HOF-type QB to his backup. And seriously, the Patriots with Matt Cassell is the exception to the rule, not the norm by any means. Cassel had 10 wins and 5 losses. He also had Belichick as his coach, with Randy Moss and Wes Welker as his top receivers, with a defense that allowed the 8th fewest points that year, on a team coming off an 18-1 year and a Super Bowl appearance (losing by 3 points to the Giants in the SB). So, looking at it that way, yes, the team still had 11 wins total in 2008 (Brady got 1 before being injured), but the drop-off from the previous year was still 7 or 8 games. A significant drop-off, despite 11-wins still being a decent season.

 

[Gunsgoodtime]

This roster is not hitting on much, I think about it often.  It's Josh Allen and then it's all the other guys playing, no eliteness anywhere else on this roster.

[Peace Frog]

Without Josh, the Bills would have a perfect record.

[GoBills!]

don’t you put that negativity out there… only answer is we suck!