Keon Coleman success by route - Not pretty

[Einstein]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

C'mon now @Einstein

 

2nd and 9 was simply one of the worst play calls in Buffalo Bills history.

 

Damned if it worked and Damned if it didn't.

 

The Chiefs offense is AVERAGING 8 yards per play at this point........and Brady wants to give them the ball back with 2 minutes left so they can casually walk down the field.....playing 4 down offense this time.......and win the game instead of running out the clock and pushing an exhausted Chiefs defense over the goal line?

 

The Chiefs defense has been on the field for almost 40 minutes and their tongues are hanging out.  

 

There was no logical reason to go to a one-read,  30+ air yard TD throw in the middle to a downfield receiver like Diggs........let alone a small catch radius slot receiver. 

 

Your offense has gotten to this position by averaging less than 5 yards per play all game.   You've even failed to connect on a long throw earlier in this drive.

 

Why even let their defense off the hook with some low % bullsh!t?

 

It's brutally obvious........keep taking the underneath stuff and make them tackle their way out of this dilemma.

 

Run the clock out,  take their soul and escape with a Parcells/Belichick style win.

 

But no.   Allen and Brady had other plans.  

 

Allen would have been getting lauded for leaving the field with the lead like in 13 seconds except this time he ACTUALLY left too much time on the clock.

 

Brady would have been interviewing for HC jobs with his last play call having been a long TD pass and 40 minutes of possession against the eventual champs.

 

 

 

 

 

Oh if we are talking about the play call itself, I agree with you. Brady has sucked twice in the playoffs against the Chiefs.

I am talking about Allen only.

[3rdand12]

On 6/7/2025 at 4:09 PM, Einstein said:

 

I think it’s a good question, but I also think it’s important to remember that whenever we answer questions like this, we should take into account what is theoretically possible for a player to do better and seperate it from what is actually probable, in a game situation, for a player to do better. Some posters, for example, want to defy physics to make a suggestion for what a player should have done differently. Others simply ignore fatigue on what is possible for a player to do late in a game.

 

Anyway, I think you could make the argument that if he took one more step backwards in his dropback (or readjusted one step back after), he gets the throw off. 

 

But then we have to ask ourselves - what are we really doing by making these suggestions? And the undeniable answer is that we are clawing to find ways to cast blame on anyone other than the person at fault, Dion Dawkins.

 

Dawkins got blown up. That is what happened. All the nuanced takes of what Allen could have done with a step in this or that direction is simply deflection from the fact that Dawkins got blown up. 

 

 

Also, as I mentioned in a previous post that you may not have seen because it is a couple pages back now, Josh could’ve decided to throw to Diggs and just take the first down. But I will never ever blame a player for going end zone in that situation. It was the right decision. Mathematically it is 100% the right decision.

I myself and not looking to cast blame anywhere. Not my thing.

Always , what could we have done better. Realistically

 I am sure players and Coaches looked at a few plays late last year with similar thoughts

at least some of your players are going to beat or broken down within their assignment each play. So each player needs an option or 3 to compensate

Josh know Dion like brother. When he saw Jones was going to mess him up lol

 They both might have had a teachable moment 🙂

[3rdand12]

On 6/7/2025 at 5:03 PM, SoonerBillsFan said:

I wonder if that is a scheme issue, Receivers or what?  It might be something I alluded to in a video someone posted of his throws over 20 yards. He seems to get happy feet and lose his technique on some throws.  As a side note, most successful deep ball throwers have a slightly more "over the top" throwing motion when going deep. He cant do his 3/4 motion and throw flat and be that successful deep.

 

I hope he sees this and works on it this offseason. If he can start hitting the deeper ball more successfully, whew, we will be tough to stop.

Good point about Josh on the deeper throws. He has the arm to throw a bullet 50 yards and knows it

But struggles to lead his receiver open still , on the long ball at least.

Maybe he is surprised when a player breaks into open field and he has time in the pocket  lol and gets giddy 😇

[3rdand12]

21 hours ago, T.E. said:

I am someone who wasn't particularly charmed by his opening press conference like most people seemingly were. He seemed like a total space cadet.

 

That being said, he made enough plays his rookie year to make me bullish on his future. Let's give this guy a chance before we start burying him.

I am all about this guy coming back focused and better conditioned for full NFL season. More focused on how he can 

avoid the abuse he took when teams wanted to shut him down early. Fix his mind over matter. Smoother with his get offs from the block and extend his arms with purpose to pull the ball down while being wrastled by Dbs ha ha

 Keon has a purty good sized upside imho.

1b perhaps

[3rdand12]

7 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

First off......we need to stop looking at him as some modest second round pick.  

 

In making the trade-backs the Bills were saying that they would have been fine picking him at 28.

 

And the lower the bulk numbers are then how he gets those numbers will be more important.

 

If Coleman has a Gabe-like one-off 200+ yard game against the Saints.........but otherwise averages a paltry 37 yards per game the rest of the season..........then 800 yards is likely going to be seen as a failure.

 

They need him to be consistent and come up big against the likes of Baltimore, KC, Philly etc..

 

I like Coleman's ceiling more than some but at some point either in 2025 or 2026 they need him to be producing at least at WR1 level to make the pick a real success story.

 

That said,  about half of first round picks fail to be seen as worthy of a 5th year extension so the potential for failure late in round 1 or early round 2 is inherently pretty high.

 

That doesn't really alter fan or organizational expectations much though.   You are never going to presume that a near 50% hit/miss rate applies to you.

You covered a lot of ground again here .

I struggle evaluating current players by draft pick.

 I do watch whom  Beanes picks to fill the needs. Immediate need , is my #1 measure to be critical of.

 The bolded finished my though.

 Bills really needed a 1A and we very possibly could have acquired if passionate enough. As out BADOL suggests. Bills must thought they had a guy in their sights

 I suggest in another post that I am hopeful. But 1B is his ceiling

[Alphadawg7]

On 6/7/2025 at 2:23 PM, Einstein said:

I refuse to entertain your trolling. You know what I and others are saying and you are purposefully attempting to twist it. You read what Simon said. You also read what I have said (unless your responding without actually reading which is worse). Yet instead of responding to what we write, you simply regurgitate the same point without any additional nuance or clarification. I don't know why you are acting like this, because in general you haven't done this. But today, you are trolling for some reason. Its bad enough when our own fans do it, but downright miserable when a Chiefs fan does it. Its not interesting and I can only assume that if you keep it up, sooner or later, you will be tossed. 
 

 

No disrespect - but - He isn't trolling, you are just not correct in absolving Allen from any responsibility.

 

You have made several incorrect statements in all your posts now. 

• You incorrectly attributed blame to Shakir not getting to his spot fast enough making Allen hold the ball longer, which the film shows is 100% wrong.  Shakir is a 4.45 WR with a free release in a 20 yard straight line sprint before he even encounters a defender and where the ball was already in the air before any defender even was near his route.  He has literally ZERO impact on this play not succeeding. 
  • Futhermore, Shakir makes Reid bite on a move and ends up wide open for the would be TD exactly where the ball was headed had Allen not been hit.  
• You have incorrectly described the rush from the D to be different than it was
• You seem to refuse to acknowledge the massive amount of time and space Allen had in the pocket outside the one exact spot he stood like a statue in. 
• You dont want to seem to acknowledge that Allen bounced in place multiple times, even pump faked, before making the throw which on any one of those he could have bounced even a half step back or to the right and made the same throw, except this time clean, to Shakir. 
• And you have refused to even accept that any OTHER result would have been acceptable such as sliding to the right and throwing to Diggs instead for an easy first down or even running to the right and either getting the first or making the 3rd down attempt shorter/easier.

This obsession people have to accuse people of "trolling" just because they don't agree is over the top around here.  Don't get me wrong, plenty of people do troll, but just because he doesn't agree with you on this play doesn't make him a troll.  

 

Dion lost a rep to one of the best pass rushers and clutch defenders of his era in Jones was the primary cause of the play.  BUT - Allen didn't see/recognize that Dion was getting dominated and stood in place like a statue despite the time to make even a subtle adjustment to get a clean pass off to Shakir or simply make a different play if it wasn't there.  He also shares some responsibility in the result of that play.

 

Is attempting to hit a wide open Shakir for a TD a mistake?  No.  But it also doesn't mean its the ONLY choice either, and a case can be made it still leaves too much time on the clock for KC who always dog walks us with the game on the line.

 

But IT IS absolutely a mistake if you can't actually complete the play due to pressure.  So if he wasn't going to be able to avoid the pressure, then the correct decision then becomes move right and either hit Diggs for the sure first down or keep running if the lanes are there for either the first or a shorter 3rd down attempt.  But like I said, the space and time were there for Allen to make a subtle adjustment to get that pass off clean, he just failed to recognize he needed to and the tape confirms that.

 

 

Edited 17 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[Simon]

24 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Dion lost a rep to one of the best pass rushers and clutch defenders of his era in Jones was the primary cause of the play.  BUT - Allen didn't see/recognize that Dion was getting dominated and stood in place like a statue despite the time to make even a subtle adjustment to get a clean pass off to Shakir or simply make a different play if it wasn't there.  He also shares some responsibility in the result of that play.

 

If you want to suggest he made a mistake by holding the ball waiting for the hole shot to Shakir to come open instead of coming down to Diggs, there is indeed a debate to be had there.

But Josh Allen has spent his entire career learning that his backside is rock solid and playing accordingly.

Nobody should give him an ounce of grief for trusting Dawkins enough to keep his eyes downfield instead of resetting.

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

 

If you want to suggest he made a mistake by holding the ball waiting for the hole shot to Shakir to come open instead of coming down to Diggs, there is indeed a debate to be had there.

But Josh Allen has spent his entire career learning that his backside is rock solid and playing accordingly.

Nobody should give him an ounce of grief for trusting Dawkins enough to keep his eyes downfield instead of resetting.

You're a better man than me for responding to that 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, 3rdand12 said:

You covered a lot of ground again here .

I struggle evaluating current players by draft pick.

 I do watch whom  Beanes picks to fill the needs. Immediate need , is my #1 measure to be critical of.

 The bolded finished my though.

 Bills really needed a 1A and we very possibly could have acquired if passionate enough. As out BADOL suggests. Bills must thought they had a guy in their sights

 I suggest in another post that I am hopeful. But 1B is his ceiling

-Can you explain how you came to this conclusion?  

-Can you give us some examples of a 1B?

Edited 15 hours ago by NewEra

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

-Can you explain how you came to this conclusion?  

-Can you give us some examples of a 1B?

When ichiro Suzuki hit a line drive down the right field line and comes to first base 

 

That's a 1B or a single ✌️

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, Simon said:

 

If you want to suggest he made a mistake by holding the ball waiting for the hole shot to Shakir to come open instead of coming down to Diggs, there is indeed a debate to be had there.

But Josh Allen has spent his entire career learning that his backside is rock solid and playing accordingly.

Nobody should give him an ounce of grief for trusting Dawkins enough to keep his eyes downfield instead of resetting.

 

No disrespect my friend, but if you truly believe this then that in itself would be a complete and total failure by Allen on that fact alone.  For the record, I don't think Allen thought that at all, but if he did then that is without question a critical failure by him.  

 

You are stating that Allen has no responsibility to check the pressure coming from what is probably the best and most clutch game wrecker in the league...And on a play where Allen knows:

• That is Chris Jones on the other side - again one of the best game wreckers of Allens era (and maybe the most clutch in big moments)
• Its one on one as he isn't being doubled
• We are taking a deep shot and by default Allen has to hold the ball a little longer
• We either score on this drive or KC ends our season again

Sorry...what you just wrote here just doesn't make sense IMHO, nor is it something I suspect a coach would agree with, nor do I think Allen would.  And as much as I love Dion, he isn't better than Chris Jones and isn't so good you can just completely ignore Chris Jones in a game on the line moment as a QB.  

 

And quite honestly, our lack of handling the defensive pressure is what ended our last 2 seasons.  

 

 

 

 

Edited 12 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[Simon]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect my friend, but if you truly believe this then that in itself would be a complete and total failure by Allen on that fact alone.  For the record, I don't think Allen thought that at all, but if he did then that is without question a critical failure by him.  

 

You are stating that Allen has no responsibility to check the pressure coming from what is probably the best and most clutch game wrecker in the league...And on a play where Allen knows:

• That is Chris Jones on the other side - again one of the best game wreckers of Allens era (and maybe the most clutch in big moments)
• Its one on one as he isn't being doubled
• We are taking a deep shot and by default Allen has to hold the ball a little longer
• We either score on this drive or KC ends our season again

Sorry...what you just wrote here just doesn't make sense IMHO, nor is it something I suspect a coach would agree with, nor do I think Allen would.  And as much as I love Dion, he isn't better than Chris Jones and isn't so good you can just completely ignore Chris Jones in a game on the line moment as a QB.  

 

And quite honestly, our lack of handling the defensive pressure is what ended our last 2 seasons.  

 

 

 

 

 

I want my QB with his eyes down the field, not watching the pass rush.

[Alphadawg7]

33 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

I want my QB with his eyes down the field, not watching the pass rush.

And it’s unfortunately why the play failed and our season ultimately ended on that drive.  

[FireChans]

On 6/6/2025 at 6:43 PM, MasterStrategist said:

Like I said, you just repeated my exact comments --- both sides underperform.

 

And in big moments, we have ZERO defens8ve players up to the challenge/elite.

 

And yeah, Josh made some mistakes---  his talent gets away with it.  That picture shows a player with a torn PCL diving....what if Josh didnt adjust the protection to the left and actually looked playside/with the motion....we are talking a 1st down.

Agree, clutch is clutch.  Meaning whoever makes the last big play in these close games become the victor....

 

We're saying the same thing.  Key thing is we have 1 elite player on offense and zero on defense, my point is we need to find a difference maker on that side of the ball--- or get alot more from DL and secondary units.

I think more broad strokes is sure, elite defender would be nice. Another elite offensive player would also be nice. 

 

The difference between "enough to win" or "almost won" is a handful of offensive or defensive plays. Having as many players as possible to make them is the goal. 

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think more broad strokes is sure, elite defender would be nice. Another elite offensive player would also be nice. 

 

The difference between "enough to win" or "almost won" is a handful of offensive or defensive plays. Having as many players as possible to make them is the goal. 

 

This is the point. There is a debate here based on the final two offensive plays of the last two years on whether Josh was partly to blame or not at all to blame but that kind of misses the crux of this. Whichever of those camps you are in the conclusion is the same - we don't have enough guys around Josh to make those handful of clutch plays and so it always feels as though he has to be perfect in those scenarios.

 

If you have an elite receiver maybe they catch a ball that isn't perfectly thrown. If you have an elite defender maybe they force a sack that knocks the Chiefs out of FG range rather than just a pressure that gets a stop and holds them to 3. It is ALWAYS those kinds of margins at the end of Bills - Chiefs games. And the Bills have got it done in the regular season but not the playoffs. Another elite guy or two would definitely help. 

[Simon]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

And it’s unfortunately why the play failed and our season ultimately ended on that drive.  

 

They missed an opportunity on 2nd down by 12".

The season ended on the following drive because their injury-ravaged defense couldn't get a stop.

[Allen2Moulds]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

And it’s unfortunately why the play failed and our season ultimately ended on that drive.  

Sorry, I have to disagree on this one. Chris Jones made a great play at a key moment, and that's that. Can't fault Allen for trusting his guy (Dion) who typically wins that battle. It's hard for any QB to play the position, if they can't trust the blindside. Had the pressure come from anywhere else, then I would agree, that Allen should of made a move in the pocket.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is the point. There is a debate here based on the final two offensive plays of the last two years on whether Josh was partly to blame or not at all to blame but that kind of misses the crux of this. Whichever of those camps you are in the conclusion is the same - we don't have enough guys around Josh to make those handful of clutch plays and so it always feels as though he has to be perfect in those scenarios.

 

If you have an elite receiver maybe they catch a ball that isn't perfectly thrown. If you have an elite defender maybe they force a sack that knocks the Chiefs out of FG range rather than just a pressure that gets a stop and holds them to 3. It is ALWAYS those kinds of margins at the end of Bills - Chiefs games. And the Bills have got it done in the regular season but not the playoffs. Another elite guy or two would definitely help. 

I just don't think it's an either/or proposition.

 

Yes, imo, the defense has been crappier overall in the postseason if I had to assign a blame pie. 

 

I think a lot of folks like @Alphadawg7 and @NewEra and @MasterStrategist see that as there's more room for improvement/impact if we add a star there. I think that's a reasonable take.

 

The problem is I have next to zero confidence that we would see that significant impact due to the apparent coaching mismatch. 

 

Do I think adding a Myles Garrett may help us make an extra play or two to beat the Chiefs?  Yes, I do.

 

Do I think adding a Myles Garrett is going to help us put up a 2020 Bucs or 2024 Eagles defensive performance against the Chiefs? I really do not.

 

So when it comes to beating the Chiefs (and beyond because that's not going to be the Superbowl), I don't really a vast distinction between adding an elite defensive player vs an elite offensive player. In fact, I think it's a reasonable take that adding a player who can catch 10+ balls from Josh Allen against the Chiefs will have more impact than a player coached by McD and schemed against by Reid to make an impact. 

 

And to bring it back to Keon Coleman. I hated the pick, because I didn't see the vision of the ceiling. I'm not convinced he is going to be anything more than a Mike Williams type player. Now, Mike Williams was a fine player, but a player like that is never the "answer" at WR. 

 

Ultimately, Keon's stretch of good play mid-season last year made me feel much BETTER about him. If he can be that player more consistently, I will feel much better about the offensive side overall. 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is the point. There is a debate here based on the final two offensive plays of the last two years on whether Josh was partly to blame or not at all to blame but that kind of misses the crux of this. Whichever of those camps you are in the conclusion is the same - we don't have enough guys around Josh to make those handful of clutch plays and so it always feels as though he has to be perfect in those scenarios.

 

If you have an elite receiver maybe they catch a ball that isn't perfectly thrown. If you have an elite defender maybe they force a sack that knocks the Chiefs out of FG range rather than just a pressure that gets a stop and holds them to 3. It is ALWAYS those kinds of margins at the end of Bills - Chiefs games. And the Bills have got it done in the regular season but not the playoffs. Another elite guy or two would definitely help. 

 

But the problem is...Josh had multiple WR's wide open that last series, including the 4th down play...and also Kincaid at TE. The route Allen threw too though was the TE, so who the other WR's were on the field on that play are totally irrelevant because the pass still went to the TE even though there were WR's wide open we did have were open, including off the snap. 

 

Those WR's could have been Jerry Rice and Randy Moss, it makes no difference to the play because Allen didn't have the ability to throw to any of the WR's we had, who again were open.  Because we cheated the protection to the wrong direction, Allen had to bail to his right immediately off the snap and heave a prayer ball to the only guy he could which was a TE running wide open down field.  Unfortunately, Kincaid didn't make the play...but unless you are advocating to draft a better TE, then who the WR's were on this play do not change the outcome of this play.

 

No one is arguing against having a better WR for Allen...but, this false narrative that our WR's are why the Shakir TD attempt failed in 2023 or why we didn't convert a first on our final series in 2024 isn't accurate to those respective plays.  

 

If someone wants to make a case an upgrade in the WR room helps Josh score more points in a game we lost by 3, then fair case to present.  But the WR's are not the reason we didn't convert these plays, they were wide open in each instance and things that happened on the OL or with Allen (including getting his pass batted at LOS) are why we didn't convert.  We failed to get the ball to the wide open guys on the field to even give the WR's to make the play.  WRs can’t catch balls not thrown to them, dont reach them, or that get deflected at the LOS.
 

3 hours ago, Simon said:

 

They missed an opportunity on 2nd down by 12".

The season ended on the following drive because their injury-ravaged defense couldn't get a stop.

 

Come on...lol...we gave them the ball back while we were still losing the game with them needing 1 first down to end it

Edited 47 minutes ago by Alphadawg7

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I just don't think it's an either/or proposition.

 

Yes, imo, the defense has been crappier overall in the postseason if I had to assign a blame pie. 

 

I think a lot of folks like @Alphadawg7 and @NewEra and @MasterStrategist see that as there's more room for improvement/impact if we add a star there. I think that's a reasonable take.

 

The problem is I have next to zero confidence that we would see that significant impact due to the apparent coaching mismatch. 

 

Do I think adding a Myles Garrett may help us make an extra play or two to beat the Chiefs?  Yes, I do.

 

Do I think adding a Myles Garrett is going to help us put up a 2020 Bucs or 2024 Eagles defensive performance against the Chiefs? I really do not.

 

So when it comes to beating the Chiefs (and beyond because that's not going to be the Superbowl), I don't really a vast distinction between adding an elite defensive player vs an elite offensive player. In fact, I think it's a reasonable take that adding a player who can catch 10+ balls from Josh Allen against the Chiefs will have more impact than a player coached by McD and schemed against by Reid to make an impact. 

 

And to bring it back to Keon Coleman. I hated the pick, because I didn't see the vision of the ceiling. I'm not convinced he is going to be anything more than a Mike Williams type player. Now, Mike Williams was a fine player, but a player like that is never the "answer" at WR. 

 

Ultimately, Keon's stretch of good play mid-season last year made me feel much BETTER about him. If he can be that player more consistently, I will feel much better about the offensive side overall. 

Fair assessment. 👍🏻 

 

edit:  I guess where we differ most is regarding our belief in McD.  I think he’s capable.  He’s regularly shown that he can devise game plans to stifle Mahomes in the regular season.  Then the playoffs come around and we can’t stop them.  I would attribute some of this due to injury- not strictly McD.  Looking at the corners we’ve run out there in the playoffs compared to the regular season is a stark contract.  Benford has missed 95% of the snaps in the last two loses- which left us with Douglas/Elam and Douglas(on a sprained ankle)/Dane.  Neither pairing is Lombardi quality and hurt our D dramatically imo.  If Benford plays both games- I think we win at least 1.  Throw in AJ Klein playing and the investment in Von Miller yielding us nothing for 3 years in the playoffs.  
 

maybe that contributes to your lack of confidence in McD -  and that’s fair as well.  Does he need his D to be injury free in order to beat them?  Maybe so.  Will the D ever be healthy come playoffs?  Doubtful.  I get it.  
 

 

 

Edited 40 minutes ago by NewEra