Rank Allen’s receiving options

[Billsfed1]

Lots of good takes in here.  My order would mirror quite a few mentioned already but the only thing I’ll say is I’ve been really impressed with Shakir.

 

His trajectory has been similar to Allens and I think he easily cracks 1200 yards this year.

 

No one guy is gonna have crazy stats in this offense because of the rotation and deliberate use of everybody…but to me Shakir stands out and the starting running back, whomever it may be will have plenty of opportunity.

[Victory Formation]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah I think it's very unlikely that Palmer is "great" though.   Because he has already played 4 years in the NFL and hasn't showed any inkling of great.   You don't see many WR's go from his type of production for 4 seasons to stacking up "great" seasons.    

 

Coleman, on the other hand, showed flashes of big play ability until his terrible finish down the stretch.   19.2 yards per catch and 18.8 yards per target.   Ideally, for the Bills(and Beane's draft hit/miss ratio) Coleman elevates to being the top boundary WR for the Bills this season.   

 

I could not agree more. Well said buddy…

[NewEra]

14 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah I think it's very unlikely that Palmer is "great" though.   Because he has already played 4 years in the NFL and hasn't showed any inkling of great.   You don't see many WR's go from his type of production for 4 seasons to stacking up "great" seasons.    

 

Coleman, on the other hand, showed flashes of big play ability until his terrible finish down the stretch.   19.2 yards per catch and 18.8 yards per target.   Ideally, for the Bills(and Beane's draft hit/miss ratio) Coleman elevates to being the top boundary WR for the Bills this season.   

 

Ideally, of course.  Most likely?  🤷🏻‍♂️ 

 

I think it’ll come down to how Josh And Joshua gel.  Some guys have natural chemistry (see Josh and Shakir).  Some guys don’t (see Josh and Kincaid).  

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Based on passer rating when targeted in 2024(pro football reference)

 

108.8  Khalil Shakir

 93.9   Keon Coleman

 88.2   Josh Palmer 

 84.7    Dalton Kincaid 

 79.3    Curtis Samuel

 44.5    Elijah Moore (191 of 192 NFL pass catchers)

PFF Receiving Grades FWIW.  They factor in passer rating plus more variables (DOT, YPR, Drops, etc.).  Pretty much the same but they give Kincaid a little more love.  Knox didn't have enough targets to qualify.

 

Shakir - 77.85 (27th of 98 WR's)

Kincaid - 76.6 (8th of 37 TE's)

Coleman - 69.4 (60th of 98)

Palmer -68.3 (62nd of 98)

Samuel - 62.6 (85th of 98)

Moore - 58.6 (93rd of 98)

 

[Victory Formation]

Just now, Doc Brown said:

PFF Receiving Grades FWIW.  They factor in passer rating plus more variables (DOT, YPR, Drops, etc.).  Pretty much the same but they give Kincaid a little more love.  Knox didn't have enough targets to qualify.

 

Shakir - 77.85 (27th of 98 WR's)

Kincaid - 76.6 (8th of 37 TE's)

Coleman - 69.4 (60th of 98)

Palmer -68.3 (62nd of 98)

Samuel - 62.6 (85th of 98)

Moore - 58.6 (93rd of 98)

 

Knox has been a disappointment. I was convinced that he was going to be a top 10 TE at one point, but now I lament that we gave him such a big contract.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

6 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Since when?  Most people wanted knox gone pre-extension simply because of his unreliable hands.  

I definitely wasn’t one of those people. Knox first 4 years were adequate. I can definitely can see why Beane wanted to upgrade, but I still think Kincaid was an absolute luxury pick at the time and would’ve I been absolutely fine rolling w/ Knox. 
 

Kincaid went from an 80% catch rate in his rookie year to 58% in his sophomore. Longest catch was 23 yards. A grand total of 2 TDs on the year matching the total of the last. He’s been an absolute joke. Now I could look past some of this stuff if he was a vicious blocker, but judging on recent photos he is built closer to a place kicker than an NFL TE. All I know is we better see a decent improvement or he’s going to have the media & fans after him sooner rather than later. 

[Buffalo716]

9 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Ideally, of course.  Most likely?  🤷🏻‍♂️ 

 

I think it’ll come down to how Josh And Joshua gel.  Some guys have natural chemistry (see Josh and Shakir).  Some guys don’t (see Josh and Kincaid).  

I don't even think that's a fair assumption to say Josh and Kincaid don't have good chemistry 

 

he was banged up most the last year.. and in his rookie year put up a Bills record for most receiving yards by a rookie tight end 

 

60 years of an organization and he was the best rookie output .. I think he's in line for a big year

1 minute ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

I definitely wasn’t one of those people. Knox first 4 years were adequate. I can definitely can see why Beane wanted to upgrade, but I still think Kincaid was an absolute luxury pick at the time and would’ve I been absolutely fine rolling w/ Knox. 
 

Kincaid went from an 80% catch rate in his rookie year to 58% in his sophomore. Longest catch was 23 yards. A grand total of 2 TDs on the year matching the total of the last. He’s been an absolute joke. Now I could look past some of this stuff if he was a vicious blocker, but judging on recent photos he is built closer to a place kicker than an NFL TE. All I know is we better see a decent improvement or he’s going to have the media & fans after him sooner rather than later. 

Even PFF which sucks had Kincaid as a top 12 tight end via grade 

 

 his role in the offense is a lot more than just getting targets

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

I don't even think that's a fair assumption to say Josh and Kincaid don't have good chemistry 

 

he was banged up most the last year.. and in his rookie year put up a Bills record for most receiving yards by a rookie tight end 

 

60 years of an organization and he was the best rookie output .. I think he's in line for a big year

Even PFF which sucks had Kincaid as a top 12 tight end via grade 

 

 his role in the offense is a lot more than just getting targets

And then last year - 39% of the passes his way past 10 yards were uncatchable, including the pass that dalton had to dive for in which he was injured. I’m as big a Kincaid as you’ll find…..last year was painful to watch. Maybe they can figure it out again this year.  But last year was gross as a Kincaid-a-holic.  

[DJB]

12 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

In other words they suck 

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, NewEra said:

And then last year - 39% of the passes his way past 10 yards were uncatchable, including the pass that dalton had to dive for in which he was injured. I’m as big a Kincaid as you’ll find…..last year was painful to watch. Maybe they can figure it out again this year.  But last year was gross as a Kincaid-a-holic.  

His yards after catch top 5 NFL TEs..  average depth of target top 10... Top 20 ypc being banged up .. pff ranked him 6th overall TE

 

We have a very complicated offense that does not focus on one guy..  he had multiple stats in the top 10 TE being a second year guy

 

That's the problem with the NFL you take a guy first round that your team historically doesn't take in 60 years.. a tight end.. and people expect Tony Gonzalez out the gate 

 

He's literally been top 10 and he's only been in the league 2 years

Edited 16 hours ago by Buffalo716

[Doc Brown]

22 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Knox has been a disappointment. I was convinced that he was going to be a top 10 TE at one point, but now I lament that we gave him such a big contract.

How much of that is the addition of Kincaid though?  He had 49 catches for 587 yards in 2021 and 48 receptions for 517 yards in 2022.  Last two years he only had 22 receptions.  In the four games Kincaid missed last year he had 11 catches for 141 yards. 

 

Extend that to the whole season it's 47 catches for 599 yards.  Similar to what he had the non Kincaid years.

Edited 16 hours ago by Doc Brown

[Victory Formation]

8 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

How much of that is the addition of Kincaid though?  He had 49 catches for 587 yards and 48 receptions for 517 yards in 2022.  Last two years he only had 22.  In the four games Kincaid missed last year he had 11 catches for 141 yards. 

 

Extend that to the whole season it's 47 catches for 599 yards.  Similar to what he had the non Kincaid years.

Knox has only done that two times in his six seasons here. The dude got paid and disappeared, that’s not Kincaid’s fault.

Kincaid reached that benchmark twice in his first two seasons here and his PR in his rookie year has not been matched once by Knox in his entire career.

 

I love Knox when he shows up but the problem is he doesn’t play up to his ability.

[LEBills]

47 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Why so low on Palmer?  Maybe you’ve explained previously, but I missed it.  The guy knows how to get open.  I don’t why how anyone could out Keon over him (and I like Keon more than most).  Palmer is a MUCH better route while also being faster.  Similar hands

I will preface this by saying I hope I am wrong on Palmer and he is great. 
 

But he has been the definition of mid for 4 years, 8 if you include college. I remember when he lit up the senior bowl because he is a good route runner. That propelled him all the way to a third round pick despite middling stats in Tennessee. 
 

With the Chargers, he was given many opportunities in his first three years due to injuries to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He was an ok fill in for them but his yprr and win rate were substandard. He then entered this last year as the most seasoned WR on the Chargers and was easily displaced by Ladd and QJ. 
 

Basically, he is a WR3 level player at best imo. He is able to get separation and make some vertical plays. He is not someone who is going to create a ton after the catch. And I think his route running ability gets minimized as the field condenses which is why he doesn’t score many touchdowns.

 

I have him ranked basically as a Mack Hollins replacement which, if Samuel was healthy last year, would have been the 5th most targeted player on the Bills last year. Maybe he winds up as #4 but I don’t think he will especially if injuries get him again this year. 
 

Keon had an up and down year last year. But he has upside I don’t think Palmer has. If the Bills let him operate from the slot a bit more I think that will help his production. Even if they force him into the X-role a lot, I think he will make a few more downfield plays in year two.

[Doc Brown]

11 minutes ago, Victory Formation said:

Knox has only done that two times in his six seasons here. The dude got paid and disappeared, that’s not Kincaid’s fault.

Kincaid reached that benchmark twice in his first two seasons here and his PR in his rookie year has not been matched once by Knox in his entire career.

 

I love Knox when he shows up but the problem is he doesn’t play up to his ability.

Knox was always a developmental prospect though as he was extremely raw coming out of Ole Miss where they barely used their TE's in the passing games. It seems more to look at his 3rd and 4th year because of that.  Not that dissimilar to Allen as far as a project goes.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

PFF Receiving Grades FWIW.  They factor in passer rating plus more variables (DOT, YPR, Drops, etc.).  Pretty much the same but they give Kincaid a little more love.  Knox didn't have enough targets to qualify.

 

Shakir - 77.85 (27th of 98 WR's)

Kincaid - 76.6 (8th of 37 TE's)

Coleman - 69.4 (60th of 98)

Palmer -68.3 (62nd of 98)

Samuel - 62.6 (85th of 98)

Moore - 58.6 (93rd of 98)

 

 

 

Yeah using this kind of data removes the vague "feels" aspect that vastly favors the unfamiliar.    Sharty-Sherfield syndrome.

 

 

[Victory Formation]

41 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Knox was always a developmental prospect though as he was extremely raw coming out of Ole Miss where they barely used their TE's in the passing games. It seems more to look at his 3rd and 4th year because of that.  Not that dissimilar to Allen as far as a project goes.

I’m okay with the player but not the price. Unless Knox has a breakout year, he’s gone, there’s an out in his contract after this year.. Factor in that we drafted a TE this year, it’s more than likely that Knox is playing his last year in Buffalo.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

Ideally, of course.  Most likely?  🤷🏻‍♂️ 

 

I think it’ll come down to how Josh And Joshua gel.  Some guys have natural chemistry (see Josh and Shakir).  Some guys don’t (see Josh and Kincaid).  

 

 

So you think gelling is going to turn Palmer into what level of producer though?

 

I mean, I wouldn't be "shocked" if he averaged 50 yards receiving per game over 17 games but I think that's probably the higher end.   What's "most likely" is what I always say with these free agent signings..... that they finish with a season not far from their career norms.   Look at Mack Hollins.   Despite all the PT he got receiving the most snaps of any Bills WR......he put up just 378 yards.   His career range is mostly 200's with a high in the 600 range so falling in a bit south of 400 tracked.    

 

 

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

I will preface this by saying I hope I am wrong on Palmer and he is great. 
 

But he has been the definition of mid for 4 years, 8 if you include college. I remember when he lit up the senior bowl because he is a good route runner. That propelled him all the way to a third round pick despite middling stats in Tennessee. 
 

With the Chargers, he was given many opportunities in his first three years due to injuries to Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. He was an ok fill in for them but his yprr and win rate were substandard. He then entered this last year as the most seasoned WR on the Chargers and was easily displaced by Ladd and QJ. 
 

Basically, he is a WR3 level player at best imo. He is able to get separation and make some vertical plays. He is not someone who is going to create a ton after the catch. And I think his route running ability gets minimized as the field condenses which is why he doesn’t score many touchdowns.

 

I have him ranked basically as a Mack Hollins replacement which, if Samuel was healthy last year, would have been the 5th most targeted player on the Bills last year. Maybe he winds up as #4 but I don’t think he will especially if injuries get him again this year. 
 

Keon had an up and down year last year. But he has upside I don’t think Palmer has. If the Bills let him operate from the slot a bit more I think that will help his production. Even if they force him into the X-role a lot, I think he will make a few more downfield plays in year two.

Hard to call someone mid when they LED Tennessee in yards and catches in 2020

 

Every single offense is different I don't care if he had 500 yards or 1200 yards.. he was on an SEC team and was the leading receiver

 

There's literally 900 Plus FBS receivers.. he had the 40th best stats over his 4 years in college

 

That's in the 95th percentile.. far from mid if I'm just being honest

[LABILLBACKER]

14 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

1. Shakir

2. Palmer (drop-off after this)

3. Moore

4. Kincaid

5. Knox

6. Coleman

7. Samuel

I'd like to see Coleman take a step or two up this season and be a reliable WR #3. Same for Kincaid: be a consistent target. Love Knox as a teammate and he makes some acrobatic catches but I don't think he's a consistent threat. Samuel has a lot to prove later in his career. Moore I think can get use 600 yards of so because he's done around there many times before.

I think we have two good and reliable options right now; would like to see four.

I might flip Coleman & Knox, but this will be a pretty accurate prediction. 

[Doc Brown]

Just now, Victory Formation said:

I’m okay with the player but not the price. Unless Knox has a breakout year, he’s gone, there’s an out in his contract after this year.. Factor in that we drafted a TE this year, it’s more than likely that Knox is playing his last year in Buffalo.

The Bills pry value Knox more than fans do as he does a lot of little things that go unnoticed.  Knox is our most complete TE and he's a much better blocker than I thought he'd be coming out of college.  In theory he should be the perfect compliment to Kincaid who is more of a finesse TE that is a better route runner but relies less on physicality to get open.  Hawes was drafted to fill the Quintin Morris TE3 role.  Nothing more.  You're right that Knox is overpaid given his receiving production but if I was Beane I'd need to have a replacement plan in mind before just cutting him after next season.  A lot can change in a a year though.

44 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah using this kind of data removes the vague "feels" aspect that vastly favors the unfamiliar.    Sharty-Sherfield syndrome.

 

 

That's funny.  It took me about ten seconds to realize that's not some psychological syndrome I haven't heard about.