Is Cook worth it?

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

It’s not like a lot of RBs couldn’t be successful in those situations with Allen at QB. 

 

Folks keep saying this...

 

Here are our last 3 drives in the AFC Championship game when it was close and we needed Offensive production the most. I didnt do the whole game because we all already know Cook had a great game and was playing lights out the whole time.

 

Check this for comparision...

 

 

 

 

How'd Ray and Ty do on the big stage when it mattered most?

[ScottishBills]

9 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Folks keep saying this...

 

Here are our last 3 drives in the AFC Championship game when it was close and we needed Offensive production the most. I didnt do the whole game because we all already know Cook had a great game and was playing lights out the whole time.

 

Check this for comparision...

 

How'd Ray and Ty do on the big stage when it mattered most?

 

Fair. Albeit a very small sample size. 

Plenty good things that could be found through the season from those 2 though. And Cook would be replaced by someone, so that's more on top.

 

Says something about what the Bills think of Cook that he wasnt on the field, despite playing well. Not saying they were right, but it gives a certain insight on where they are at

 

[Chicken Boo]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

BS. He shouldn’t be paid based on your (or his) fantasy about how much he’s grown. He’s proven only what he’s proven and that’s what his contract should reflect. It’s not difficult.

 

I would not have minded if the Bills had allowed Cook’s agent to look for a trade partner before the draft. He could have really seen what his market was. But I do not see where they asked to do so and I would not want them to allow it now. That’s not a precedent a GM should set.

 

At this point I’d want this: either the two sides come to an agreement prior to the season starting or he plays his deal out. In the future agents would understand that the time to request permission to seek a trade would be prior to the draft. If he goes the fake injury route, then I’d play hardball and seek to fine/suspend him. 

 

I fail to see how the Bills choosing not to fully utilize Cook's talent is his problem? 

 

If I'm Cook, I take the hit and let the team suffer.  It's a bigger loss for this franchise than many realize.

 

You all just may find out.

17 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Folks keep saying this...

 

Here are our last 3 drives in the AFC Championship game when it was close and we needed Offensive production the most. I didnt do the whole game because we all already know Cook had a great game and was playing lights out the whole time.

 

Check this for comparision...

 

 

 

 

How'd Ray and Ty do on the big stage when it mattered most?

 

Short memories.

Edited August 5 by Chicken Boo

[BarleyNY]

9 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

I fail to see how the Bills choosing not to fully utilize Cook's talent is his problem? 

 

If I'm Cook, I take the hit and let the team suffer.  It's a bigger loss for this franchise than many realize.

 

You all just may find out.

 

Short memories.

 

That’s been covered. He has shown the workload he is capable of and that limits his touches. That limits what the team can ask him to do. So they’re getting as much out of him as he is capable of. 

[BarleyNY]

29 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Folks keep saying this...

 

Here are our last 3 drives in the AFC Championship game when it was close and we needed Offensive production the most. I didnt do the whole game because we all already know Cook had a great game and was playing lights out the whole time.

 

Check this for comparision...

 

 

 

 

How'd Ray and Ty do on the big stage when it mattered most?

 

The Bills put the players on the field that had played in those situations all season. If Cook could carry a bigger workload then maybe  he’d have seen time in them and they’d have played him. But that wasn’t the case.

 

Maybe he’d have fared better if they’d have put him in, but that’s speculation. All season the coaches didn’t feel comfortable playing him when the defense knew we’d be running. I’d wager that they had their reasons for not starting in the AFCC game. 

[HamptonBillsfan]

5 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

My evaluation is in line with Spotrac’s and, apparently, Beane’s. I’ve done the work on it and posted it here in the original Cook thread. I came up with $10.5M AAV. Spotrac has $10.2M AAV over 4 seasons. Yours is the outlier.

 

Let me recap some of the reasons he’s not worth close to top of market:

- workload: he’s a 50% snap player. players like Barkley play nearly 100% of the offensive snaps in close games

- he is poor in pass pro and is pedestrian catching out of the backfield

- usage: Cook plays a lot of first and second down snaps. he doesn’t play in the higher leverage situations a 3rd downs, obvious passing situations, short yardage or in obvious rushing situations. so he isn’t on the field to close out games where we’re ahead. he’s not on the field late in games when we have to throw. Or at the goal line. Or 3rd/4th &  1. Or any 3rd down. 

 

What he does do well is that he helps Allen on most first and second downs. He really did take some of the load off of him, which keeps him healthy. That’s worth something. But not anything close to what you think he’s worth. It’s not like a lot of RBs couldn’t be successful in those situations with Allen at QB. 

You’re hung up on silly statistical evaluations (Sportrac)that can be manipulated by GMs in negotiations. You’re not being objective when you diminish Cook’s production on just over 200 carries. How could you say he’s not on the field on obvious rushing situations when he had 16 TDs. Why wasn’t he on the field the last 2 series against KC when Brady, Josh and company kept failing to control the game with predictable QB tush  pushes. Brady’s lack of creativity and stubborn refusal to use Cook, killed our SB chances. You’re confusing what Brady has designed for our offense with Cook’s shortcomings. He can be a matchup nightmare in the passing game against LBs and safeties, and with 50 more carries 1250. to 1400 yds is more than possible. You forgot to mention in your efforts to discredit Cook , how durable he’s been and how we haven’t had anyone close to his production in the Allen era. More importantly where are we getting his replacement drafting when we do. I’m begging you self styled capologists, just judge Cook by the eye test. How many backs score that TD at the goal line on 4th down to keep us in the game?

[BarleyNY]

5 minutes ago, HamptonBillsfan said:

You’re hung up on silly statistical evaluations (Sportrac)that can be manipulated by GMs in negotiations. You’re not being objective when you diminish Cook’s production on just over 200 carries. How could you say he’s not on the field on obvious rushing situations when he had 16 TDs. Why wasn’t he on the field the last 2 series against KC when Brady, Josh and company kept failing to control the game with predictable QB tush  pushes. Brady’s lack of creativity and stubborn refusal to use Cook, killed our SB chances. You’re confusing what Brady has designed for our offense with Cook’s shortcomings. He can be a matchup nightmare in the passing game against LBs and safeties, and with 50 more carries 1250. to 1400 yds is more than possible. You forgot to mention in your efforts to discredit Cook , how durable he’s been and how we haven’t had anyone close to his production in the Allen era. More importantly where are we getting his replacement drafting when we do. I’m begging you self styled capologists, just judge Cook by the eye test. How many backs score that TD at the goal line on 4th down to keep us in the game?

 

You have no idea what you’re talking about. I’m going to drop out of this convo. I can keep explaining this to you, but I can’t understand it for you. 

[HamptonBillsfan]

44 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

My evaluation is in line with Spotrac’s and, apparently, Beane’s. I’ve done the work on it and posted it here in the original Cook thread. I came up with $10.5M AAV. Spotrac has $10.2M AAV over 4 seasons. Yours is the outlier.

 

Let me recap some of the reasons he’s not worth close to top of market:

- workload: he’s a 50% snap player. players like Barkley play nearly 100% of the offensive snaps in close games

- he is poor in pass pro and is pedestrian catching out of the backfield

- usage: Cook plays a lot of first and second down snaps. he doesn’t play in the higher leverage situations a 3rd downs, obvious passing situations, short yardage or in obvious rushing situations. so he isn’t on the field to close out games where we’re ahead. he’s not on the field late in games when we have to throw. Or at the goal line. Or 3rd/4th &  1. Or any 3rd down. 

 

What he does do well is that he helps Allen on most first and second downs. He really did take some of the load off of him, which keeps him healthy. That’s worth something. But not anything close to what you think he’s worth. It’s not like a lot of RBs couldn’t be successful in those situations with Allen at QB. 

One more thing, the idea of punishing Cook because of pass protection when Josh was sacked 8 times is silly. You keep insisting on the fact you know what Cook is worth. He’s better each year and the Bills went to the AFC championship last season. Josh loves him and he represents a tremendous threat in the running game, giving Josh a great opportunity to dominate in  the passing game. .

 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, BarleyNY said:

 

The Bills put the players on the field that had played in those situations all season. If Cook could carry a bigger workload then maybe  he’d have seen time in them and they’d have played him. But that wasn’t the case.

 

Maybe he’d have fared better if they’d have put him in, but that’s speculation. All season the coaches didn’t feel comfortable playing him when the defense knew we’d be running. I’d wager that they had their reasons for not starting in the AFCC game. 

 

He could have, especially in the AFC Championship. The coaches botching the decision making is par for the course, especially when playing KC. Got too cute and over thought it instead of sticking with the hot hand and the basics.

[gobills404]

4 hours ago, balln said:

Rumor from Rickey? Yaaaaaaaaa furrrr surrrrrre

Yes. For sure.

 

[RoscoeParrish]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

My evaluation is in line with Spotrac’s and, apparently, Beane’s. I’ve done the work on it and posted it here in the original Cook thread. I came up with $10.5M AAV. Spotrac has $10.2M AAV over 4 seasons. Yours is the outlier.

 

Let me recap some of the reasons he’s not worth close to top of market:

- workload: he’s a 50% snap player. players like Barkley play nearly 100% of the offensive snaps in close games

- he is poor in pass pro and is pedestrian catching out of the backfield

- usage: Cook plays a lot of first and second down snaps. he doesn’t play in the higher leverage situations a 3rd downs, obvious passing situations, short yardage or in obvious rushing situations. so he isn’t on the field to close out games where we’re ahead. he’s not on the field late in games when we have to throw. Or at the goal line. Or 3rd/4th &  1. Or any 3rd down. 

 

What he does do well is that he helps Allen on most first and second downs. He really did take some of the load off of him, which keeps him healthy. That’s worth something. But not anything close to what you think he’s worth. It’s not like a lot of RBs couldn’t be successful in those situations with Allen at QB. 

I have a question for you.

 

do you think this phenomenon is why some players get wildly overpaid in FA and disappoint?

 

Like the Jags throw $49M at Cook and realize that he was used out way in Buffalo for a reason and it becomes a bad contract?

[HamptonBillsfan]

10 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

You have no idea what you’re talking about. I’m going to drop out of this convo. I can keep explaining this to you, but I can’t understand it for you. 

Thank you, when they sign him to 13 to 15 for three, just admit you didn’t accept what was right  in front of you. Just a partisan efficiency expert.

[PoundingDog]

Listen to Beane. There is little conversation according to him.  It is interesting at around 2:35 mark where Beane went onto talking about agents he has dealt with (not asked by Brown). And he said he has never done a deal with Cook's agent and need to "feel out".  Then he went on to say "when you do a deal, it got be right for the player and right for the club." The underlying statement is obvious. 

 

I don't know where the story that the 2 sides are close came from. It sounds to me Beane is waiting for the Cook's side to move some before any further conversation. 

 

 

[GoBills808]

43 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

He could have, especially in the AFC Championship. The coaches botching the decision making is par for the course, especially when playing KC. Got too cute and over thought it instead of sticking with the hot hand and the basics.

it's certainly possible. but if you look at success rate among our RBs it's pretty clear why they don't go to Cook in those moments

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

 

I fail to see how the Bills choosing not to fully utilize Cook's talent is his problem? 

 

If I'm Cook, I take the hit and let the team suffer.  It's a bigger loss for this franchise than many realize.

 

You all just may find out.

 

Short memories.

So what do you want?   To pay him 15M and lose McGovern or Torrence?

 

We also have much more potential on offense this year with Coleman Year 2, Kincaid Year 3, Palmer & Moore vs Rookie Coleman, injured Kincaid, Cooper and Hollins.  
 

Edited August 5 by SCBills

[Solomon Grundy]

Chris Cantu just said it best on ECM, get on board or get gone!! Ray Davis and Ty Johnson can get it done. Trade for Etienne 

[BeastMaster]

50 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Chris Cantu just said it best on ECM, get on board or get gone!! Ray Davis and Ty Johnson can get it done. Trade for Etienne 

This would probably make the most sense, actually.

 

If the Bills can trade for a player with a similar skill set to Cook like Etienne, he would likely enjoy similar success as Cook.

 

I also believe this is what the Bills think, and it's why they are only going to go so far with Cook in terms of contract extension.

 

Travis Etienne is actually a perfect target that would give us an explosive back with pass catching chops to boot

[Ballsy]

18 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

No. I said "You guys are expecting him to leave generational wealth on the table".

 

As in, the difference between taking $12M/yr and $15M/yr on a 4yr contract is $12M left on the table. That $12M alone is generational wealth if managed properly.

 

It's one thing if the sides are less than a million apart. Easy to argue either side should meet the other one.

 

But if/when I have one shot to get paid, I'm not going to be happy leaving $10M-$15M behind just to please the people of Buffalo, NY.

 

That's 12M before taxes.  The $6M after tax is a lot of money, but most folks wouldn't call that generational wealth.  Sure if well managed it might turn into generational wealth, but so can $1M.  If you invested $1M in the Nasdaq 100 index 30 years ago, it'd be worth over $15M today....

No one is asking him to take a discount to please the fans.  I think these are his options:

1. Play out the reminder of the existing contract (he gets $5M this year).  If he has another great season, his worse case scenario is the franchise tag and a one year contract.  The franchise tag one year contract for running backs next year is probably $14M-$16M.   $20Mish over two years, but the big downside is year-to-year guarantees.  If he has a down year or misses time due to injury, he risks 3/4 of that $20M.

2. Accept the Bills offer, which he clearly feels is less than he is worth.  I'll assume the Bills have offered him at least $10M/year for 4 years with 3 years guaranteed, but we have no information on their offer.  It's probably at least $30M guaranteed.  This greatly reduces his financial exposure and the downside risk of bad season or a major injury.

3. Try to get more money.  He can agitate (Hold out, hold in, request trade, etc).  If this becomes annoying enough (or a big enough distraction), the Bills might do something to get him more money (increase their offer, trade him, promise not to franchise him next year, etc).

Since he has nothing to lose because he can always choose #1, or #2, why not try #3?  Hold in seems to fit all his goals in ensuring he does not get injured during camp and possibly getting him more money, but he doesn't really have a lot of choices once the season starts.  If the Bills don't change their offer and don't trade him, once the season starts he has to play a lot of football for the Bills if he wants to get paid in the future.

[Solomon Grundy]

51 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

This would probably make the most sense, actually.

 

If the Bills can trade for a player with a similar skill set to Cook like Etienne, he would likely enjoy similar success as Cook.

 

I also believe this is what the Bills think, and it's why they are only going to go so far with Cook in terms of contract extension.

 

Travis Etienne is actually a perfect target that would give us an explosive back with pass catching chops to boot

Totally agree with this 

[DrDawkinstein]

11 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

it's certainly possible. but if you look at success rate among our RBs it's pretty clear why they don't go to Cook in those moments

 

I mean, check out my post at the top of this page as far as what it looks like when they go to the other RBs. The coaches moving away from Cook is more bad coaching (again) than anything to do with Cook.

47 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

This would probably make the most sense, actually.

 

If the Bills can trade for a player with a similar skill set to Cook like Etienne, he would likely enjoy similar success as Cook.

 

I also believe this is what the Bills think, and it's why they are only going to go so far with Cook in terms of contract extension.

 

Travis Etienne is actually a perfect target that would give us an explosive back with pass catching chops to boot

 

Why would Etienne, a blue chip 1st round pick from a top program in his contract year, take less than Cook? They are literally in the same situation. Except Etienne can blame the Jags organization for his lack of production.

 

You're just right back where you were. This is Cook with extra steps.

 

Sign the guy you drafted and who has been in the locker room the last 3 years.