Rubes Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Since we're almost upon the draft, I thought I'd bring up this annual topic: First rounders are believed, by most, to have the best chance of success in the NFL, on average. But as we all know, the draft is largely a crapshoot, and first rounders fail to live up to expectations all the time (looking at you, Elam). Sometimes we chalk it up to poor player evaluation, or poor player adjustment to the NFL, among other things. In some cases, we also think the specific situation they're drafted into is the cause, whether it's poor coaching, poor team culture, lack of supporting cast, and so on. If that latter point is the case it stands to reason those players could be successful in a different situation, on a different team. I'm wondering how often we see that this is the case with 1st rounders. That is, how many first rounders fail on the teams that drafted them, only to be released or traded to another team to become as successful as originally projected when they were drafted? Is the specific drafting team situation really a thing that has been proven by those who have changed teams? Or is it mostly a convenient excuse? What are some strong examples of first rounders who failed to live up to expectations on their drafting team, and then left to go to another team and achieved the success that eluded them? Does Jerry Hughes fit this? Are there others? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akcash Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Ahhhhhh I was going to say Jerry Hughes!! Well played! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiracleAtRich1393 Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Leonard Floyd? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 Just now, MiracleAtRich1393 said: Leonard Floyd? Was he really a failed first rounder? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Claude Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 (edited) Steve Young obviously. Not a new team but a new coach, Alex Smith was a bust until Jim Harbaugh. Geno Smith? Edited April 17 by Billy Claude 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 6 minutes ago, Rubes said: Since we're almost upon the draft, I thought I'd bring up this annual topic: First rounders are believed, by most, to have the best chance of success in the NFL, on average. But as we all know, the draft is largely a crapshoot, and first rounders fail to live up to expectations all the time (looking at you, Elam). Sometimes we chalk it up to poor player evaluation, or poor player adjustment to the NFL, among other things. In some cases, we also think the specific situation they're drafted into is the cause, whether it's poor coaching, poor team culture, lack of supporting cast, and so on. If that latter point is the case it stands to reason those players could be successful in a different situation, on a different team. I'm wondering how often we see that this is the case with 1st rounders. That is, how many first rounders fail on the teams that drafted them, only to be released or traded to another team to become as successful as originally projected when they were drafted? Is the specific drafting team situation really a thing that has been proven by those who have changed teams? Or is it mostly a convenient excuse? What are some strong examples of first rounders who failed to live up to expectations on their drafting team, and then left to go to another team and achieved the success that eluded them? Does Jerry Hughes fit this? Are there others? Jim Plunkett. 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 Just now, oldmanfan said: Jim Plunkett. Definitely a good one. But also, that's going back like what, 40 years ago? Any others? 1 minute ago, Billy Claude said: Steve Young obviously. Not a new team but a new coach, Alex Smith was a bust until Jim Harbaugh. That's a good one, I think. That fits the argument since the Bucs were a hot mess back then. Still seems like a rarity, though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akcash Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Ryan Tannehill (I cheated) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Claude Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Ryan Tannehill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfanmiamioh Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Ricky Williams? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 5 minutes ago, Augie said: I am from the future. A man named Elam. They have alcohol in the future. EDIT: And present. 🤷♂️ . augie used to drink a lot he still does, but he used to too (and will in the future) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 1 minute ago, akcash said: Ryan Tannehill (I cheated) Cheated how? Not a bad choice, though I don't know if I'd say he achieved the success expected of an 8th overall pick. 1 minute ago, billsfanmiamioh said: Ricky Williams? Ew. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Virgil Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Drew Brees? 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akcash Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Just now, Rubes said: Cheated how? Not a bad choice, though I don't know if I'd say he achieved the success expected of an 8th overall pick. Ew. That’s true. Went to pro football reference and scanned ever first round pick for every draft back to 2006 before I found tannehill in whatever year he was drafted 😂 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DapperCam Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 I think Maybin became an artist. Oh, you meant football career? 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Just now, Virgil said: Drew Brees? 2nd rounder. So was Geno Smith. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 8 minutes ago, Rubes said: Since we're almost upon the draft, I thought I'd bring up this annual topic: First rounders are believed, by most, to have the best chance of success in the NFL, on average. But as we all know, the draft is largely a crapshoot, and first rounders fail to live up to expectations all the time (looking at you, Elam). Sometimes we chalk it up to poor player evaluation, or poor player adjustment to the NFL, among other things. In some cases, we also think the specific situation they're drafted into is the cause, whether it's poor coaching, poor team culture, lack of supporting cast, and so on. If that latter point is the case it stands to reason those players could be successful in a different situation, on a different team. I'm wondering how often we see that this is the case with 1st rounders. That is, how many first rounders fail on the teams that drafted them, only to be released or traded to another team to become as successful as originally projected when they were drafted? Is the specific drafting team situation really a thing that has been proven by those who have changed teams? Or is it mostly a convenient excuse? What are some strong examples of first rounders who failed to live up to expectations on their drafting team, and then left to go to another team and achieved the success that eluded them? Does Jerry Hughes fit this? Are there others? Do they have to have moved to another team before they succeeded? The classic recent case is Alex Smith, #1 overall pick of the 2005 draft. At one point, he was on a list of "top 5 draft busts of all time". He's splitting starts with the like of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith. Then Harbaugh takes over as HC, the team goes 13-3, and Smith is playing in the conference championship. But wait, there's a twist - he gets benched for Colin Kaepernick, rides out the SB loss on the pine, gets traded to KC and his quality QB play resumes. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akcash Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 2 minutes ago, Beck Water said: Do they have to have moved to another team before they succeeded? The classic recent case is Alex Smith, #1 overall pick of the 2005 draft. At one point, he was on a list of "top 5 draft busts of all time". He's splitting starts with the like of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith. Then Harbaugh takes over as HC, the team goes 13-3, and Smith is playing in the conference championship. But wait, there's a twist - he gets benched for Colin Kaepernick, rides out the SB loss on the pine, gets traded to KC and his quality QB play resumes. That’s a good one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Claude Posted April 17 Share Posted April 17 Would Jared Goff count? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubes Posted April 17 Author Share Posted April 17 3 minutes ago, Beck Water said: Do they have to have moved to another team before they succeeded? The classic recent case is Alex Smith, #1 overall pick of the 2005 draft. At one point, he was on a list of "top 5 draft busts of all time". He's splitting starts with the like of Shaun Hill and Troy Smith. Then Harbaugh takes over as HC, the team goes 13-3, and Smith is playing in the conference championship. But wait, there's a twist - he gets benched for Colin Kaepernick, rides out the SB loss on the pine, gets traded to KC and his quality QB play resumes. Yeah, @Billy Claude mentioned Alex Smith earlier, but I didn't remember his story until you mentioned it. That's a really good one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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