Westside Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 13 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said: That’s bidenomics for you! You must depend on the government! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 If this economy is really as strong as the lefties say. Why isn't the fed raising rates again as inflation is still over target and unemployment is at target. That's the mandate of the fed 7 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said: That's the danger here for the administration, They're telling us, whether the numbers are reflective of actual conditions or fake. the economy is humming along in great shape but its not translating to good times for the working person that has work multiple jobs, tap savings, and assume debt just to make ends meet. So the Fed holds off on rate cuts because of the job market numbers. Expect no rate cut in March. My expectation is the straw that breaks the Camel's back is going to be stress in Commercial Real Estate (it was housing last time, are we seeing a pattern yet?) which has been brewing below the surface for about a year now that erupts into a banking crisis which forces the Fed to once again move in to rescue the banks from loan defaults, lower property values, bankruptcies, and high vacancy rates. Per the fed mandate. Inflation is still over goal. Unemployment is at goal. Wouldn't that point to raising rates? And wouldn't that then speed up what you are referencing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 (edited) Can't wait to see this at the pump. Edited February 2 by Tommy Callahan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillStime Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 It’s absolutely killing these nutters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 8 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said: I was watching the job market "experts" on the financial networks this morning and when the 353K number was released most of them starting laughing because it was so obviously fake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 4 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said: I was watching the job market "experts" on the financial networks this morning and when the 353K number was released most of them starting laughing because it was so obviously fake. Fox? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 13 minutes ago, Tiberius said: Fox? Do you understand the job numbers are not a count? I'm not sure how anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of statistics can examine the methodology employed by the BLS and come away with anything but skepticism. Its nothing new mind you, they've been doing it for years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiberius Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 1 minute ago, All_Pro_Bills said: Do you understand the job numbers are not a count? I'm not sure how anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of statistics can examine the methodology employed by the BLS and come away with anything but skepticism. Its nothing new mind you, they've been doing it for years. I see all the help wanted signs every where. The stats are accurate Deal with it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 17 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said: Do you understand the job numbers are not a count? I'm not sure how anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of statistics can examine the methodology employed by the BLS and come away with anything but skepticism. Its nothing new mind you, they've been doing it for years. You are from the Nixon school of "let's kill the messenger." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_Jew_count#:~:text=The "Nixon Jew count" of,of Labor Statistics (BLS). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coffeesforclosers Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 Looking at past economic downturns, they usually have a combination of signs like: Cratering stock prices, spiking inflation, high unemployment, collapsing wages, low to no economic growth. Is any of that happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 26 minutes ago, All_Pro_Bills said: Do you understand the job numbers are not a count? I'm not sure how anyone with a rudimentary knowledge of statistics can examine the methodology employed by the BLS and come away with anything but skepticism. Its nothing new mind you, they've been doing it for years. They dont have a clue. its telling how the one tried to imply any digging into the details is "Antisemitic." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Coffeesforclosers said: Looking at past economic downturns, they usually have a combination of signs like: Cratering stock prices, spiking inflation, high unemployment, collapsing wages, low to no economic growth. Is any of that happening? No. No such thing happening. I'm still not convinced that we'll have a "soft landing." That is, no recession. But it's enjoyable watching Trump and his ilk in a panic that Biden (and congressional Dems) may very well be able to run on a platform of a strong economy. We are still in the denial phase: "The numbers, they must be wrong!" 3 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said: They dont have a clue. its telling how the one tried to imply any digging into the details is "Antisemitic." I'm waiting for you to start the count of Jewish - sounding surnames at the BLS. The moral here: Nixon was wrong. He tried to deny that the economic numbers were awful, and then he tried to find a scapegoat by issuing one of the most repugnant orders any President has ever issued. Oh, and yeah: his henchmen went ahead and carried out that order. Edited February 2 by The Frankish Reich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 I see someone has the MSM talking points down pat. While attempting to insult anyone thats not a brain dead MSM parrot. I know the story, I also know what you were pretty pathetically trying to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thurmal34 Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 another 3.3% growth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFanNC Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Then shouldn't they be raising rates. Especially with full employment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 But gdp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 23 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said: But gdp Tommy Boy Freaks Out; S&P Shrugs Off Retail Sales News, Opens Up .15% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 28 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Tommy Boy Freaks Out; S&P Shrugs Off Retail Sales News, Opens Up .15% He doesn't care. It only affects the "investor class" which as a supposed engineer, he's somehow not a part of?🙄 How sad is it to be cheering for the economy to tank and simultaneously complaining that one can't afford necessities. kinda schizophrenic.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, Joe Ferguson forever said: He doesn't care. It only affects the "investor class" which as a supposed engineer, he's somehow not a part of?🙄 How sad is it to be cheering for the economy to tank and simultaneously complaining that one can't afford necessities. kinda schizophrenic.... But there's a method to such madness. When the economy tanks, he'll be able to buy a pound of bacon again. Until he loses his civil engineering job and has to drive for Instacart delivering that pound of bacon to someone else. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 (edited) 5 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: But there's a metod to such madness. When the economy tanks, he'll be able to buy a pound of bacon again. Until he loses his civil engineering job and has to drive for Instacart delivering that pound of bacon to someone else. Rent free moron, rent free Edited February 15 by Tommy Callahan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Precision Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 22 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said: Tommy Boy Freaks Out; S&P Shrugs Off Retail Sales News, Opens Up .15% Markets typically peak immediately prior to a recession (see below). The general consensus is that a recession or "soft landing" will occur in the Q2/Q3 timeframe of this year. The rise in markets was due to more confirmation of the upcoming recession (retail sales data) and the subsequent cut to interest rates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 17 hours ago, Tommy Callahan said: Rent free moron, rent free Yes, because being part of the "investor class" allows one to own a residence or 2....no rent 36 minutes ago, Precision said: Markets typically peak immediately prior to a recession (see below). The general consensus is that a recession or "soft landing" will occur in the Q2/Q3 timeframe of this year. The rise in markets was due to more confirmation of the upcoming recession (retail sales data) and the subsequent cut to interest rates. source? I'm certain that you didn't compose this. btw, anyone that can predict what the market is going to do is wildly wealthy. Nobody can. This could be correct or terribly wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDHillFan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said: source? I'm certain that you didn't compose this. As some of your board mates like to say “every accusation is a confession”. This is something that is in your repertoire as you recently claimed you always provide a source - less than an hour after you didn’t provide a source for a cut and paste. You should consider searching the internet for the passage you take issue with. Be careful though as it will make you look like even more of a tool. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 56 minutes ago, JDHillFan said: Be careful though as it will make you look like even more of a too At this point. That's impossible. What would a rate raise do? What would no cuts do? Fed has a mandate. Unemployment is good on the books. Inflation is still over target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said: At this point. That's impossible. Don’t worry about it. It only affects the “ investor class”. Marx would be proud of you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Dumb strawman even for you. Comprehension is key. Your reply proved my comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Good economy means rates stay high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) What is it. If the economy is hot, it would be moronic to lower rates. A disaster for main Street and the majority of people. Edited February 16 by Tommy Callahan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daz28 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said: What is it. If the economy is hot, it would be moronic to lower rates. A disaster for main Street and the majority of people. You honestly have little clue as to how economics works. I don't know a lot, but I know enough to know that you know very little. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Precision Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 4 hours ago, Joe Ferguson forever said: Yes, because being part of the "investor class" allows one to own a residence or 2....no rent source? I'm certain that you didn't compose this. btw, anyone that can predict what the market is going to do is wildly wealthy. Nobody can. This could be correct or terribly wrong. No one can predict the market on a daily basis, but it historically has repeated itself around events such as recessions. It's unfortunate that you are unaware of this phenomenon. My advisor and the people with whom I discuss investing consider it common knowledge. Even annually the market tends to repeat itself around holidays and seasons (hence the term "sell in May and go away"). I'm sure many will disagree but that's ok. Then again, due to my investing prowess I'm the one in my 50's who is retired while most of those who would disagree are not. Here are a couple of references as requested. Visualizing 60 Years of Stock Market Cycles "In many cases, stock market peaks happen before a recession begins. Consider how in 2007, the S&P 500 hit a high in October before the recession officially began in December. Similarly, the S&P 500 peaked in September 2000, six months before the 2001 recession officially started." What to Expect in a Bear Market for Global Stocks "Stocks peak about six months (26 weeks) ahead of the start of the recession. Stocks bottom about a year after the recession starts. After bottoming, stocks take about 3.5 years to return to near their prior peak." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daz28 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Precision said: No one can predict the market on a daily basis, but it historically has repeated itself around events such as recessions. It's unfortunate that you are unaware of this phenomenon. My advisor and the people with whom I discuss investing consider it common knowledge. Even annually the market tends to repeat itself around holidays and seasons (hence the term "sell in May and go away"). I'm sure many will disagree but that's ok. Then again, due to my investing prowess I'm the one in my 50's who is retired while most of those who would disagree are not. Here are a couple of references as requested. Visualizing 60 Years of Stock Market Cycles "In many cases, stock market peaks happen before a recession begins. Consider how in 2007, the S&P 500 hit a high in October before the recession officially began in December. Similarly, the S&P 500 peaked in September 2000, six months before the 2001 recession officially started." What to Expect in a Bear Market for Global Stocks "Stocks peak about six months (26 weeks) ahead of the start of the recession. Stocks bottom about a year after the recession starts. After bottoming, stocks take about 3.5 years to return to near their prior peak." It's great that you're sharing your investing prowess with us, and I hope you're enjoying your retirement here in the PP dungeon, but if people were good at predicting bubbles, there wouldn't ever be any bubbles. Usually there's maybe a handful of guys who claim to have properly predicted them after the fact, while there's always a ton of them predicting one tomorrow, because they want you selling instead of buying. The whole idea of one person telling another about a bubble is counter-intuitive anyways. The last thing you'd EVER want to do as an investor is tell everyone else what's going to happen and why. Do you play poker this way, too? If you do, then I'm all in Edited February 16 by daz28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Ferguson forever Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 18 minutes ago, Precision said: No one can predict the market on a daily basis, but it historically has repeated itself around events such as recessions. It's unfortunate that you are unaware of this phenomenon. My advisor and the people with whom I discuss investing consider it common knowledge. Even annually the market tends to repeat itself around holidays and seasons (hence the term "sell in May and go away"). I'm sure many will disagree but that's ok. Then again, due to my investing prowess I'm the one in my 50's who is retired while most of those who would disagree are not. Here are a couple of references as requested. Visualizing 60 Years of Stock Market Cycles "In many cases, stock market peaks happen before a recession begins. Consider how in 2007, the S&P 500 hit a high in October before the recession officially began in December. Similarly, the S&P 500 peaked in September 2000, six months before the 2001 recession officially started." What to Expect in a Bear Market for Global Stocks "Stocks peak about six months (26 weeks) ahead of the start of the recession. Stocks bottom about a year after the recession starts. After bottoming, stocks take about 3.5 years to return to near their prior peak." No one can regularly time the market. I'd expect you to know that. How many investors predicted the great depression let alone 2008? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 36 minutes ago, daz28 said: You honestly have little clue as to how economics works. I don't know a lot, but I know enough to know that you know very little. The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to achieve maximum employment and keep prices stable. It does this by controlling the money supply, and raising or lowering interest rates when the economy is slowing down or growing too fast. And the data says unemployment is full, and CPI edged up..... So fed does what with rates? Never mind. You don't/can't comprehend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daz28 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Tommy Callahan said: The Federal Reserve's dual mandate is to achieve maximum employment and keep prices stable. It does this by controlling the money supply, and raising or lowering interest rates when the economy is slowing down or growing too fast. And the data says unemployment is full, and CPI edged up..... So fed does what with rates? Never mind. You don't/can't comprehend. Oh look, you can read the first line of chapter 1. Amazing. Now try reading the rest of the book. I could go through this whole thread and trash tons of things you've claimed. I'm not going to bother, because ultimately you're just here to bash what you'd call a rocketship economy if it belonged to Trump. You're one of the useful idiots NC always talks about. Well, you're all useful idiots. Anyone that ignores facts, and does nothing but provide uncorroborated crap and whatabouts to protect their cult leader is by definition a useful idiot. Do you see me protecting Biden from facts? Hell no. Will you see me ignoring uncorroborated crap? Yup. Do I bait and switch, whatabout, and ignore the truth? Nope. Edited February 16 by daz28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tommy Callahan Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, daz28 said: Oh look, you can read the first line of chapter 1. Amazing. Now try reading the rest of the book. I could go through this whole thread and trash tons of things you've claimed. I'm not going to bother, because ultimately you're just here to bash what you'd call a rocketship economy if it belonged to Trump. You're one of the useful idiots NC always talks about. Well, you're all useful idiots. Anyone that ignores facts, and does nothing but provide uncorroborated crap and whatabouts to protect their cult leader is by definition a useful idiot. Do you see me protecting Biden from facts? Hell no. Will you see me ignoring uncorroborated crap? Yup. Do I bait and switch, whatabout, and ignore the truth? Nope. But you don't, cause you can't. Then Some rant/projection like our feathered profiles. Thank you for again proving the iron law of lefty projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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