4 drives ended by dropped passes

[Mr. WEO]

22 minutes ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

In a one possession game, every mistake is magnified, and each and every drive killing play is huge.

 

 

That may be true, but Gabe balled out in the 4th.  The game wasn't over in the beginning of the second half....

[Billsfan1972]

24 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

That may be true, but Gabe balled out in the 4th.  The game wasn't over in the beginning of the second half....

What is "balled out".  A nice sideline catch, which 95% of NFL #2 receivers catch and catching balls that hit him perfectly in two hands when thrown to them?  

 

I love receivers and the love they get when catching simple balls.  It is the tough receptions that warrant mention, or taking the hit and holding on, or a real good toe tap.  

 

Gabe made the catches he should have and dropped a very easy one at a bad time.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

What is "balled out".  A nice sideline catch, which 95% of NFL #2 receivers catch and catching balls that hit him perfectly in two hands when thrown to them?  

 

I love receivers and the love they get when catching simple balls.  It is the tough receptions that warrant mention, or taking the hit and holding on, or a real good toe tap.  

 

Gabe made the catches he should have and dropped a very easy one at a bad time.

 

you can repeat this over and over--won't be more true.  11-7 beginning of the half. 

 

"balled out" in that those catches set up/were TDs.  I posted this already, but you seem not to comprehend what happened: Davis had 3 receptions for 72 yards on 2 drives in the last 8 minutes--including TDs of 9 and 9 yards back to back after the OPI by Diggs. 

 

That catch at the 3 was fantastic and the TD that was nullified was through smothering coverage while falling backwards--calling them "simple balls" is proof that you either didn't watch the game, or you just have a hard on for Davis. 

 

But.....Because I'm not a cruel man, I will now help you:

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/gabe-davis-climbs-way-upstairs-for-29-yard-toe-tap-catch-bills-vs-jaguars-london

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/every-gabe-davis-catch-from-100-yard-game-week-5

 

Diggs was nowhere in that 4th Q--1 catch for a 1st down, OPI, lost an catch for an INT, fumbled at the end. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Mr. WEO

[PBF81]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No. I think you need 4 or 5 elite players to win a Superbowl. I think that matters more than where you O or D ranks statistically. Traditionally that is what Superbowl winners have had. Almost always one of those is your QB. The positions of the rest don't matter as much but you need them. I worry we just lost one of ours and potentially a second of them (if the last game and 3/4s of Tre was really him back to his best). I don't know if Von can get back to elite level this season off an ACL. Which leaves us with two healthy elite players - Allen and Diggs. History tells you to win a Superbowl you need more than 2. Maybe Ed Oliver or Greg Rousseau keep up their fantastic starts and by the playoffs we are talking about them in that category. Maybe Von gets back there. Not sure I see anyone else on the roster who we might talk about in that way by January. Feels like we are now light on elite players compared to the norm for Superbowl winners.

 

 

 

Well, perhaps you're right, we'll see.  

 

But it also helps if your coaching staff can make optimal use of the offensive players that you do have.  We haven't seen that on McD's watch.  

 

Having said that however, Jones isn't elite and neither Milano nor White were drafted by Beane.

 

While you're loathe to criticize Beane, that sounds 100% like #Beanethingz.  

 

We can't keep claiming what you just said, then insulating Beane from the discussion about it.  

 

That makes zero sense.  

 

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by PBF81

[Billsfan1972]

16 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

you can repeat this over and over--won't be more true.  11-7 beginning of the half. 

 

"balled out" in that those catches set up/were TDs.  I posted this already, but you seem not to comprehend what happened: Davis had 3 receptions for 72 yards on 2 drives in the last 8 minutes--including TDs of 9 and 9 yards back to back after the OPI by Diggs. 

 

That catch at the 3 was fantastic and the TD that was nullified was through smothering coverage while falling backwards--calling them "simple balls" is proof that you either didn't watch the game, or you just have a hard on for Davis. 

 

But.....Because I'm not a cruel man, I will now help you:

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/gabe-davis-climbs-way-upstairs-for-29-yard-toe-tap-catch-bills-vs-jaguars-london

 

https://www.buffalobills.com/video/every-gabe-davis-catch-from-100-yard-game-week-5

 

Diggs was nowhere in that 4th Q--1 catch for a 1st down, OPI, lost an catch for an INT, fumbled at the end. 

They were nice catches on perfect passes from Allen.  A professional football player should be able to jump up and catch a football (part of the reason you have tall receivers).  The TD pass was on closer look just a perfect pass by Allen and yep Gabe made the catch.

 

I want him to succeed, but to me he just made catches and good for him (the one drop came at a bad time too).

[Straight Hucklebuck]

The Bills ran the ball 3 times in the second half. 

 

The score was 11-7 for over a quarter of the game.  

 

And McDermott wants to talk about how they didn't establish the line of scrimmage? 

 

They didn't try to help the defense at all as the time of possession became more and more lopsided as the game went on. 

 

We get these lip-service answers from the Coach. 

 

 

[Tisker A Tasker]

Dropping passes is what happens when you're sleepy.

[PBF81]

On 10/8/2023 at 1:21 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Cook, Knox, Diggs, Davis all dropped passes that killed our drives which would have been first downs, with Davis having a second drop for a first down erased off the stat sheet by a penalty.

 

Which drive was it that ended on a Davis drop, I can't find it?  Was just looking.  

 

He's got one drop this season, I'm assuming, per this, that it was in this game.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

49 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

neither Milano nor White were drafted by Beane.

 

While you're loathe to criticize Beane, that sounds 100% like #Beanethingz.  

 

We can't keep claiming what you just said, then insulating Beane from the discussion about it.  

 

That makes zero sense.  

 

No I am not loathe to criticise Beane. Indeed the Milano and White being the only two difference makers (beyond Josh) drafted by this regime and neither of them were drafted by Beane is a point I have made multiple times on this board. I was making that point before you even showed up around here. 

 

The point I am loathe to criticise Beane on is "we lost yesterday because of depth." We didn't. We lost because we were down starters at 5 spots on defense by the 11th play of the game and among those 5 are two first team all pro level guys. By the end of the game (when the Jags scored 14 points) we were down a further starter and two further backups at DE (and we were a key backup down before the game too) and our nickel was hobbled. That isn't a GM problem. That's an injury problem. 

 

If you want to criticise Brandon Beane for:

1. Missing on Kaiir Elam;

2. Trusting two old safeties coming off injuries to get back to their best;

3. Not, to this point, having drafted any proven elite level difference makers beyond Josh Allen in six drafts as GM;

 

Then I wouldn't dispute ANY of those points. But they are wider points. They don't go to Sunday specifically which was a perfect storm of injury issues that no team in the NFL against a decent standard of opposition would be able to overcome. 

[Billsfan1972]

46 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Which drive was it that ended on a Davis drop, I can't find it?  Was just looking.  

 

He's got one drop this season, I'm assuming, per this, that it was in this game.  

 

 

Second half, second down and would have been in FG range.  Pretty sure this sequennce.

 

1st & 10 at BUF 10

(9:30 - 3rd) J.Allen pass deep right to S.Diggs to JAX 42 for 48 yards (A.Cisco).

1st & 10 at JAX 42

(8:56 - 3rd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to J.Cook pushed ob at JAX 42 for no gain (F.Oluokun).

2nd & 10 at JAX 42

(8:16 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short right to G.Davis.

3rd & 10 at JAX 42

(8:10 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to D.Knox. Penalty on BUF-C.McGovern, Offensive Holding, declined.

4th & 10 at JAX 42

(8:03 - 3rd) S.Martin punts 34 yards to JAX 8, Center-R.Ferguson, fair catch by J.Agnew.

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

No I am not loathe to criticise Beane. Indeed the Milano and White being the only two difference makers (beyond Josh) drafted by this regime and neither of them were drafted by Beane is a point I have made multiple times on this board. I was making that point before you even showed up around here. 

 

The point I am loathe to criticise Beane on is "we lost yesterday because of depth." We didn't. We lost because we were down starters at 5 spots on defense by the 11th play of the game and among those 5 are two first team all pro level guys. By the end of the game (when the Jags scored 14 points) we were down a further starter and two further backups at DE (and we were a key backup down before the game too) and our nickel was hobbled. That isn't a GM problem. That's an injury problem. 

 

If you want to criticise Brandon Beane for:

1. Missing on Kaiir Elam;

2. Trusting two old safeties coming off injuries to get back to their best;

3. Not, to this point, having drafted any proven elite level difference makers beyond Josh Allen in six drafts as GM;

 

Then I wouldn't dispute ANY of those points. But they are wider points. They don't go to Sunday specifically which was a perfect storm of injury issues that no team in the NFL against a decent standard of opposition would be able to overcome. 

 

OK, then let's take this discussion a little further. 

 

You originally said, leading to my post above, that a team typically needs 4-5 elite players to win a Super Bowl.  

 

Quote

I think you need 4 or 5 elite players to win a Superbowl. ... Almost always one of those is your QB.

 

Given that neither Milano nor White were drafted by Beane, and those are the two players that everyone's crying about the most, and given that Jones wasn't a Beane draftee either, who then are the players that Beane has drafted, apart from Allen of course, that are elite and that therefore we'd need to win a Super Bowl?  

 

Because if one looks through our list of draftees by Beane, none match your description of being "elite."  

 

So the follow-on question is then, at what point does one suggest that Beane simply isn't cutting it in that way and that perhaps it's time for a change?  

 

You are not entirely loathe to criticize Beane, you should know me well enough to recognize sarcasm, but I've also never heard you suggest that perhaps he's not up to the task at hand.  

 

What many people see is a team that is in fact succeeding largely due to the very high-risk/high-reward drafting of Allen, an expensive market-priced WR as a free agent, and draftees that were here upon Beane's arrival.  

 

I'm curious what your answers to those questions are, without hedging.  ... in all sincerety.  

 

And by all means, if you think that he's drafted an elite player since his very first selection upon arriving, who is that player?  

 

The most successful teams in the league are drafting them.  Why aren't we.  (rhetorical)   It seems like an obvious answer to me.  

 

 

2 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Second half, second down and would have been in FG range.  Pretty sure this sequennce.

 

1st & 10 at BUF 10

(9:30 - 3rd) J.Allen pass deep right to S.Diggs to JAX 42 for 48 yards (A.Cisco).

1st & 10 at JAX 42

(8:56 - 3rd) (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Allen pass short right to J.Cook pushed ob at JAX 42 for no gain (F.Oluokun).

2nd & 10 at JAX 42

(8:16 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete short right to G.Davis.

3rd & 10 at JAX 42

(8:10 - 3rd) (Shotgun) J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to D.Knox. Penalty on BUF-C.McGovern, Offensive Holding, declined.

4th & 10 at JAX 42

(8:03 - 3rd) S.Martin punts 34 yards to JAX 8, Center-R.Ferguson, fair catch by J.Agnew.

 

Gotta be another, that one didn't end the drive though.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Given that neither Milano nor White were drafted by Beane, and those are the two players that everyone's crying about the most, and given that Jones wasn't a Beane draftee either, who then are the players that Beane has drafted, apart from Allen of course, that are elite and that therefore we'd need to win a Super Bowl?  

Because if one looks through our list of draftees by Beane, none match your description of being "elite."  

And by all means, if you think that he's drafted an elite player since his very first selection upon arriving, who is that player?  

 

 

Grouped these together because they are, essentially, the same question. I have been abundantly clear multiple times that I think the answer is he hasn't (well, Tyler Bass, but I don't count kickers).

 

I think there are two guys though on the roster that he has drafted (excluding rookies for now) who could still make it to that category and who have always had the talent to do so - Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau. Ed would be a 1st team all pro this year based on the first 5 weeks, no question about it. Groot would get all pro votes. I think his future reputation depends as much on those guys delivering on their potential as it does on guys he hasn't picked yet. 

 

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

So the follow-on question is then, at what point does one suggest that Beane simply isn't cutting it in that way and that perhaps it's time for a change?  

 

This isn't straightforward because a) there is more to being a General Manager than drafting players - though no question it is a critical part of the job and b) because what Beane drafts very few of is outright busts. Elam looks like his first day 1 bust. Cody Ford was a day 2 bust. But he has avoided them for the most part. He drafts a lot of guys that can play and can be starters in the NFL. When compared to his peers that means he grades out pretty well overall... but has it been a factor in us being near and yet so far in terms of a championship? Yea it has. Would I fire him now? No I wouldn't. But then I am a stability guy and a patience guy. I think if in two years we are still saying after the 2023 class and a year of the 2024 class "man he hasn't found an elite player except Josh" then you have to either move him on or clear house below him and bring in a new scouting structure. 

[Billsfan1972]

26 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

 

 

Gotta be another, that one didn't end the drive though.  

 

 

That's the one.  Not third down, but a crucial play as the Bills would have been 1st down and in fg range at worst.  Regardless a drop.

[Boatdrinks]

3 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The Bills ran the ball 3 times in the second half. 

 

The score was 11-7 for over a quarter of the game.  

 

And McDermott wants to talk about how they didn't establish the line of scrimmage? 

 

They didn't try to help the defense at all as the time of possession became more and more lopsided as the game went on. 

 

We get these lip-service answers from the Coach. 

 

 

Well, he’s not wrong. They didn’t establish it. They got beat on the LOS, which is why many of the plays were unsuccessful. There were other errors as well, ( drops etc ) but the line was not as impressive as they were vs MIA. 

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

Well, he’s not wrong. They didn’t establish it. They got beat on the LOS, which is why many of the plays were unsuccessful. There were other errors as well, ( drops etc ) but the line was not as impressive as they were vs MIA. 

And every week after a winnable game is lost, this will be discussed.

 

The Bills need to simply approach every game as if they are going to hang 60 on the opposition.

[BigDingus]

The penalties suck, but I want to know how many were caused by injury replacements.

 

I wasn't paying attention during the game, but if you're missing your 2 best CBs, starting pass rusher, DT, and your best defender period, it'd be easy to see how they'd be a bit less disciplined.

 

Then again, we may have had very few penalties from those guys, and I'm just reaching. 

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

And every week after a winnable game is lost, this will be discussed.

 

The Bills need to simply approach every game as if they are going to hang 60 on the opposition.

Oh , it certainly will. Going forward they will definitely need to rely more on the offense. That’s probably the best approach as the defense has  lost too many key parts to stay among the leagues best. 

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

2. Trusting two old safeties coming off injuries to get back to their best;

 

 

I mean we did sign Rapp, so I don't think its fair to say we "trusted 2 old safeties" as they did bring in more depth and help there and Rapp would start on several teams.  

 

Also, hard to fault any of Beanes decisions on the defense when after 4 weeks we were first in Interceptions, takeaways and sacks plus 2nd in points allowed.  This included being the only D that held the Miami offense in check all season.  

 

Injuries like you said are outside of his control, but even after being down those guys early, this defense still had only surrendered 11 points late into the 4th quarter while playing a fresher team in London.  So the depth and quality of the players on this team is a credit to Beane.  

 

I know you are not knocking Beane, just expanding on these comments.  

 

PS:  Not directed at you per se...but to those upset he "missed" on Elam...I mean is that even a fair assessment this soon?  Elam was solid and contributed down the stretch last year...so everyone is now saying we missed on him is based on him not being active yet this year and off his first game since last January.  But there is plenty of time for Elam to continue to develop and to call him a miss this early is premature IMHO.  

 

Go back a few weeks ago and most people were still saying we missed on AJE...yet here he is playing at a high level finally getting some chances to get real reps and get out from being buried.  For all we know, as the season goes on Elam may do just the same as she showed plenty of potential as a rookie last year and then got buried behind some pretty good corners in Tre, Benford, and Dane coming into this season as he still had some stuff to work on.  

[Billsfan1972]

24 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Oh , it certainly will. Going forward they will definitely need to rely more on the offense. That’s probably the best approach as the defense has  lost too many key parts to stay among the leagues best. 

No we have McD as coach and he thinks the D will win it.  I've stated this over and over and until proven otherwise it remains a concern.

[PBF81]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Grouped these together because they are, essentially, the same question. I have been abundantly clear multiple times that I think the answer is he hasn't (well, Tyler Bass, but I don't count kickers).

 

I think there are two guys though on the roster that he has drafted (excluding rookies for now) who could still make it to that category and who have always had the talent to do so - Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau. Ed would be a 1st team all pro this year based on the first 5 weeks, no question about it. Groot would get all pro votes. I think his future reputation depends as much on those guys delivering on their potential as it does on guys he hasn't picked yet. 

 

Again, my question was ...  

Quote

who then are the players that Beane has drafted, apart from Allen of course, that are elite and that therefore we'd need to win a Super Bowl?  

 

Your response above. 

 

OK then, from what I'm reading, to date, the answer to the question is zero, barring the K, right?  

 

As to Groot, had his play over the first four games last season continued he'd have been not only a 1st-team, but All-Pro as well, and would have finished tied for 2nd in sacks a mere 2.5 sacks behind Bosa, 2nd in TFLs and tied for 14th in QBHits.  But he waned and went the opposite direction over the last dozen games, even in his next four before his injury.  AKA, ... didn't even approach happening.  

 

If Oliver continues his play linearly, then he'll have exceeded Aaron Donald's 2nd best season, and logged more TFLs than Donald ever logged, by 5, and will have exceeded Donald's QBHits numbers in all but 3 seasons.  Are you truly optimistic that that even comes close to occurring?  

 

While I'd be as excited as you to see this, the reality is that it's very unlikely to occur.  Oliver's had four seasons to post elite numbers and he's never come close.  Both players have been plagued with significant inconsistency in their game-to-game play.  In fairness Groot is only in his second season and did suffer an injury last season, but having said that, the phrase "injury prone" shouldn't be not of a concern re: him.  

 

And frankly, if they do, then that takes care of your hesitation regarding the requisite "elite players required to win the Super Bowl," right?   

 

In fact, given their level of play to date, why do concerns even exist then if they're both playing at elite levels?   I mean to date an "elite DT" and an "elite DE"?   That's what the going opinion here is now.  

 

 

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

This isn't straightforward because a) there is more to being a General Manager than drafting players - though no question it is a critical part of the job and b) because what Beane drafts very few of is outright busts. Elam looks like his first day 1 bust. Cody Ford was a day 2 bust. But he has avoided them for the most part. He drafts a lot of guys that can play and can be starters in the NFL. When compared to his peers that means he grades out pretty well overall... but has it been a factor in us being near and yet so far in terms of a championship? Yea it has. Would I fire him now? No I wouldn't. But then I am a stability guy and a patience guy. I think if in two years we are still saying after the 2023 class and a year of the 2024 class "man he hasn't found an elite player except Josh" then you have to either move him on or clear house below him and bring in a new scouting structure. 

 

So you'd give a GM 8 seasons, AFTER drafting a generational talent like Allen, who would then be 30 going into that next season, with an entirely new GM? 

 

"Starters in the NFL" isn't the standard here, by your definition it's "elite players."   Moss is a starter.  Zay Jones is a starter.  Brown is a starter.  Cook's a starter.  Davis is a starter and he's persona non grata here.  LOL  

 

We definitely have two different standards.  I would never even consider keeping a GM beyond five years if he hasn't produced a single elite player, the likes of which you state that we need 4-5 of to win a Super Bowl, particularly with a generational talent like Allen then merely rotting on the vine.  

 

To wit, if 4-5 elite players are needed, and if you want to avoid serious cap issues, you'll need to draft at least 3 of them.  One every 7 or 8 seasons will never see more than 2 on the field at the same time.  

 

You said this;  

Quote

When compared to his peers that means he grades out pretty well overall

 

Since our discussion revolves around his drafts, how so?  

 

I include his peers as the GMs of the teams that have been the most uniformly competitive over the past several seasons, not the GM of the Falcons, Texans, or Broncos.  

 

He's produced absolutely zero "elite players" in his drafts after his very first pick of Allen, which was a successful poke-n-hope for Allen, pending Groot & Oliver.  

 

Which GMs havent produced more than a single elite player in the last five drafts of theirs from '18 to '22?  

 

And for peers," again, let's consider the teams that have been our primary rivals over the past three seasons, namely KC, Philly, the Rams, Bengals, Niners for example.  AKA, teams that we'd need to beat if we want our elusive Lombardi.  

 

 

48 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

That's the one.  Not third down, but a crucial play as the Bills would have been 1st down and in fg range at worst.  Regardless a drop.

 

OK, but not fair to Davis to credit it as a drop then either given the stigma that exists for him, and in that game, particularly given his very significant contributions to 2 TD drives.  

 

Just sayin'.