Gabe Davis - deep stat improvement

[FireChans]

Just now, Mango said:

 

I'm not your buddy, pal!

I understand that completely. But it doesn't change the fact that when the bill comes due paying Kupp the remainder of his deal costs the team in other places. There is a reason teams win championships when guys like Kupp or Evans have low cap hits and they lose them when they take a greater percentage of allocated cap dollars. The Rams are a great example of that. They have sucked since they won a championship and the bill came due. 

 

You can't say that the SB winners weren't paying big money for their SB's then say their bill came due for big money!  It's one or the other!

 

Tyreek was also on a $54M deal.

 

By this argument, we could pay Gabe $50M and extend it out so his cap hit is $3M next year and we would still be a "we don't pay big money to weapons" SB winner.

 

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Your premise is somewhat valid, ... your first line there.  

 

I would strongly argue that we had our best receiving weapons in '20, IMO this season is notably better if Kincaid is what everyone thinks he is.  

 

The difference is that Allen leaned on Beasley much more than he has on any other short-yardage WR, largely because Beasley had the talent of being able to find the soft spots in coverage.  

 

Kincaid is supposed to be doing that now.  Davis was a rookie that season, which explains why he might be viewed as WR4.   Brown was little more than a known role-player, and let's be honest, with a skillset not much different than Davis', with the primary difference being that Brown was 5'11"/180 to Davis' 6'2"/210.  

 

Davis was second among WRs, even in that rookie season, for snap counts at 73%.  Diggs was 89%, Beasley 63%, Brown 42%, McKenzie 25%.  

 

That puts Davis as the "other wide WR" with Beasley in the slot.  

 

Getting back to your premise, see my post above, but this all seems to fit the understanding of McBeane, namely that Josh is a strong-armed QB and needs a solid target downfield that is capable of making those big-plays that he tries to make.  

 

Again, that could also be why Davis doesn't post bigger numbers than he has, because think about it, everyone complains that Allen goes deep instead of taking what the D gives us, well great, but that means of Allen's average of 36 attempts/game over the past three seasons, how many are going to be deep.  

 

If half of those are deeper balls, largely to Davis more often, is that really what helps the team the most?  At the same time, when Davis goes deep, opposing Ss and DBs need to respect that or Allen will go deep.  

 

 

IRT his rookie year, Brown was hurt for the majority of the year (which lends credence to why having a deep stable is important.)

 

Davis has a boom or bust skillset. He was never gonna be a chain-mover short route guy.

 

I think that's biggest thing folks dislike about him IMO. Folks want their WR2 to be a mini WR1, a guy who can do it all. Gabe will never be that.

[Mango]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

You can't say that the SB winners weren't paying big money for their SB's then say their bill came due for big money!  It's one or the other!

 

Tyreek was also on a $54M deal.

 

By this argument, we could pay Gabe $50M and extend it out so his cap hit is $3M next year and we would still be a "we don't pay big money to weapons" SB winner.

 

IRT his rookie year, Brown was hurt for the majority of the year (which lends credence to why having a deep stable is important.)

 

You can definitely speak to cap hit in a SB year. WTF are you talking about? AAV is useless. Not being on the hook for big contract is paramount to signing high level players across your roster. The cost effectiveness of the roster right now is about as good as it’s ever been. That is a super important part of the Bills journey for a SB. 

 

Nobody is winning SB’s with a huge QB and WR bill due in the same year because it pulls from other positions. That’s a very valid and true topic of conversation however inconvenient for you. 
 

The cap is only accounting to a point. You can only kick the can so long. It’s a big part of why LAR is struggling right now.
 

[WyoAZBillfan]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah and I think that Patriots team today wouldn't come close to winning it all. That was the end of an era for the NFL where a strong running game and a good defense was enough to win a Super Bowl. Then in quick succession Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert all came onto the scene. The NFL collectively decided to let offensive lines hold. We're in a new era now. If you don't have the horses on offense, you're on the outside track.

 

And that Patriots team probably wouldn't have made it to the Super Bowl to begin with if Dee Ford hadn't jumped Offside. I know you can find those examples in every game, but that year was a good example of the transition I'm talking about. A young Mahomes with an elite offensive supporting cast almost knocked off a dynasty at the end of its run.

Going to have to disagree a tad here, which is alright we all can have our opinions. 
Ford did jump Offside, or so the call was. can’t change that. 

The penchant for more offense, more points and pleasure for a “I want it more society”, I would argue that in fact a strong running game is what helped the eagles last season to a SB, helped KC prior years reach the SB. Be it to kill the clock, get that much needed 1st down or a string goal line push. A string run game has opened up Buffalos victories (coupled with outstanding defensive play) the last 3 weeks.

 For the new generation of QBs you named, only one has hosted the desired trophy. 
Parody is king still. 

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

I notice a lot of your stats are averages and not totals, in particular yardage. Higgins has almost 1k more yards that Davis in his career, both through 4 years. Jaylen Waddle has more yards than Davis in 1 year less.  That's not exactly a marginal difference imo.

 

You also seem to dismiss the fact that Davis has more TDs than all of them however and that his rate of logging 1st-Downs and TDs on his catches is significantly better than those peers.  

 

 

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

I notice a lot of your stats are averages and not totals, in particular yardage. Higgins has almost 1k more yards that Davis in his career, both through 4 years. Jaylen Waddle has more yards than Davis in 1 year less.  That's not exactly a marginal difference imo.

 

You also seem to dismiss the fact that Davis has more TDs than all of them however and that his rate of logging 1st-Downs and TDs on his catches is significantly better than those peers.  

 

And again, he was a 4th round pick while the others were all high 1sts, early 2nd, and 3rd.  

 

The point being that the solution, for a marginal gain, is to either overpay via free-agency or consume a 1st-round pick likely, and either with risks.  

 

 

[NoSaint]

4 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

OK, but how high of a bar is it?  

 

I already posted the teams that put up dual 1,000-yard WRs and it was hardly impressive.  

 

I'll post it again.  So which of the "#2" WRs below does everyone believe he should be mimicking if he's "any good?"  

 

I'll take 900/10 or so over any second-best on that entire list any day of the week.  

 

A 1st-Down is a 1st-Down and a TD is a TD, I don't care if Davis walks downfield on his hands with no pants on and catches the ball in his buttcheeks.  

 

It appears to me that his detractors are obsessed with the way that he does it rather than simply with the results.  

 

OK, and the question is open to all, but which of the "second-best" WRs  below would we be happier with?  ... and why?  

 

... and every single one had decent QBs throwing the ball to them.  Burrow, Tua, Hurts, Smith, and Brady.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

it’s not a terribly complicated point I’m making. 
 

essentially that our qb does have butt crack  throw level arm talent. That we could let darn near anyone get 3 catches a game as a 4th to 5th option on the field. You don’t pay 10m+ a year for that player unless he’s a guy that on 3rd and 8 in a big moment you are willing to call his number intentionally 

 

where we are though is definitely in the draft a guy high that replaces diggs in like 3 years phase, which coincidentally upgrades  WR2 at the same time.

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Davis has a boom or bust skillset. He was never gonna be a chain-mover short route guy.

 

I think that's biggest thing folks dislike about him IMO. Folks want their WR2 to be a mini WR1, a guy who can do it all. Gabe will never be that.

 

LOL, but he does move the chains.  We just proved that.  

 

Otherwise, I think we've said all that we can here.  It's beyond clear that you don't care for Davis.  Let's see how this season goes and go from there.  

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

it’s not a terribly complicated point I’m making. 
 

essentially that our qb does have butt crack  throw level arm talent. That we could let darn near anyone get 3 catches a game as a 4th to 5th option on the field. You don’t pay 10m+ a year for that player unless he’s a guy that on 3rd and 8 in a big moment you are willing to call his number intentionally 

 

where we are though is definitely in the draft a guy high that replaces diggs in like 3 years phase, which coincidentally upgrades  WR2 at the same time.

 

Two things.  

 

First, you're conflating two separate discussions.  One is regarding how good Davis is.  The other is how much he's worth.  

 

My point is that the longer we wait, the more expensive he becomes.  So either extent him or plan on letting him walk.  

 

Secondly, drafting a WR is a little more difficult than simply saying you're going to do it.  Given Beane's track record with WRs, Davis being the best, ironically, I'm not convinced that happens.  Also, as pointed out, Waddle and Higgins were top-10 picks.  We won't be picking until the low 20s.  

 

Otherwise it's a GM issue.  

 

 

[NoSaint]

7 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

LOL, but he does move the chains.  We just proved that.  

 

Otherwise, I think we've said all that we can here.  It's beyond clear that you don't care for Davis.  Let's see how this season goes and go from there.  

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

 

Two things.  

 

First, you're conflating two separate discussions.  One is regarding how good Davis is.  The other is how much he's worth.  

 

My point is that the longer we wait, the more expensive he becomes.  So either extent him or plan on letting him walk.  

 

Secondly, drafting a WR is a little more difficult than simply saying you're going to do it.  Given Beane's track record with WRs, Davis being the best, ironically, I'm not convinced that happens.  Also, as pointed out, Waddle and Higgins were top-10 picks.  We won't be picking until the low 20s.  

 

Otherwise it's a GM issue.  

 

 

Christian Watson being the wr off the board after elam

 

JSN, zay flowers, Addison all right ahead of Kincaid

 

it’s not like it’s a wasteland around our usual picks. 
 

if he’s not a guy you want to pay as a good WR2, maybe he’s not that good of a WR2. 

 

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

Christian Watson being the wr off the board after elam

 

JSN, zay flowers, Addison all right ahead of Kincaid

 

it’s not like it’s a wasteland around our usual picks. 
 

if he’s not a guy you want to pay as a good WR2, maybe he’s not that good of a WR2. 

 

We'll see what they do.  Neither you nor I nor Firechans etc. have any say in the matter.  LOL 

 

 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Mango said:

You can definitely speak to cap hit in a SB year. WTF are you talking about? AAV is useless. Not being on the hook for big contract is paramount to signing high level players across your roster. The cost effectiveness of the roster right now is about as good as it’s ever been. That is a super important part of the Bills journey for a SB. 

 

Nobody is winning SB’s with a huge QB and WR bill due in the same year because it pulls from other positions. That’s a very valid and true topic of conversation however inconvenient for you. 
 

The cap is only accounting to a point. You can only kick the can so long. It’s a big part of why LAR is struggling right now.
 

So we could’ve signed DHop, kicked the can down the road in terms of cap hit with some dummy years, and still met your criteria of “low cap hits.”

 

yes?

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

LOL, but he does move the chains.  We just proved that.  

 

Otherwise, I think we've said all that we can here.  It's beyond clear that you don't care for Davis.  Let's see how this season goes and go from there.  

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

 

 

Two things.  

 

First, you're conflating two separate discussions.  One is regarding how good Davis is.  The other is how much he's worth.  

 

My point is that the longer we wait, the more expensive he becomes.  So either extent him or plan on letting him walk.  

 

Secondly, drafting a WR is a little more difficult than simply saying you're going to do it.  Given Beane's track record with WRs, Davis being the best, ironically, I'm not convinced that happens.  Also, as pointed out, Waddle and Higgins were top-10 picks.  We won't be picking until the low 20s.  

 

Otherwise it's a GM issue.  

 

 

I’m not saying he doesn’t get first downs. I’m just saying his play style. He isn’t particularly adept at the short stuff, intermediate to deep passes are his game.

 

It’s why his ADOT is so high. Folks don’t like that. 

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

It's arguable -- and I'd in fact argue it -- that the 2018 Patriots had neither a #1 nor a #2 receiver. They had a slot receiver, an aging TE who had lost a step, a troubled former #1 who didn't last the season, and a bunch of jags. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2018.htm

 

 

Oh c'mon now dave........you don't think Edelman and Gronk were stars?

 

What we are talking about is that having two top receiving talents has been critical to teams having success deep into the playoffs.

 

And Edelman and Gronk played like the stars that they were in that AFCCG and SB and Edelman had a buck and half himself in the divisional round.

 

The Rams didn't have a top WR behind "slot receiver" Cooper Kupp in 2021 either...........unless you count OBJ playing up to his considerable ability in the playoffs as having a top WR2.........which I do because that's ultimately the point.

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, NoSaint said:

it’s not a terribly complicated point I’m making. 
 

essentially that our qb does have butt crack  throw level arm talent. That we could let darn near anyone get 3 catches a game as a 4th to 5th option on the field. You don’t pay 10m+ a year for that player unless he’s a guy that on 3rd and 8 in a big moment you are willing to call his number intentionally 

 

where we are though is definitely in the draft a guy high that replaces diggs in like 3 years phase, which coincidentally upgrades  WR2 at the same time.

Mcbeanes cant sit on their muffet , or tuffet ? in this matter.

Shakir might already have found his fate. And Kincaid is still a TE.
ideally , its time to bring in a Rookie/drafted WR who can learn from Diggs and carry the scepter as well.

Sooner than later is ideal.

[Mango]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

You can't say that the SB winners weren't paying big money for their SB's then say their bill came due for big money!  It's one or the other!

 

Tyreek was also on a $54M deal.

 

By this argument, we could pay Gabe $50M and extend it out so his cap hit is $3M next year and we would still be a "we don't pay big money to weapons" SB winner.

 

There is a space in between your very extreme example. The Rams managed the cap in a way maybe only one other team in history has (Saints).  It’s a terrible historical example.

 

So sure we can talk about Kupp. And we can also say “yes they won that Super Bowl” but until they straighten their cap out, partially because of that contact, they’ll continue to suck balls. They risked their entire future for one shot. They’re lucky it worked out, it doesn’t make it best practices..

 

So no, I don’t want to sign Adams even if his cap hit is $3M this year if it means him, Allen, and Diggs account for us being -$60M over the cap going forward.

And to an extent I don’t want Davis at anything more than $3-5M next year (he wont). I’m all for drafting a WR high to fill the gap in 24 and keep cost low. That’s the model that has sustained success for franchises that have won multiple SB’s. I prefer to follow that one.  We have enough long term pieces to do this thing more than once. 

Edited October 4, 2023 by Mango

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

I’m not saying he doesn’t get first downs. I’m just saying his play style. He isn’t particularly adept at the short stuff, intermediate to deep passes are his game.

 

It’s why his ADOT is so high. Folks don’t like that. 

 

No doubt, but those haven't been the arguments against him.  

 

 

[dave mcbride]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Oh c'mon now dave........you don't think Edelman and Gronk were stars?

 

What we are talking about is that having two top receiving talents has been critical to teams having success deep into the playoffs.

 

And Edelman and Gronk played like the stars that they were in that AFCCG and SB and Edelman had a buck and half himself in the divisional round.

 

The Rams didn't have a top WR behind "slot receiver" Cooper Kupp in 2021 either...........unless you count OBJ playing up to his considerable ability in the playoffs as having a top WR2.........which I do because that's ultimately the point.

Gronk was a significantly slower player in 2018 after a couple of ACL tears and the numbers bear it out. Edelman was a product of Brady — full stop.

[DCofNC]

On 10/2/2023 at 10:55 PM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

If he continues to catch the ball like he has a lot of his critics would disappear. 
 

I think a lot of his stats are because he gets to play with Josh Allen.

I think he is entirely a product of playing w Allen.  He’s just a guy, he’s NFL talent with iffy hands.  Put him with a less than great QB, nobody has heard of him.  That said, the talent level at WR for the Bills gives him a chance to get more targets than he should.

[Since1981]

18 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I think he is entirely a product of playing w Allen.  He’s just a guy, he’s NFL talent with iffy hands.  Put him with a less than great QB, nobody has heard of him.  That said, the talent level at WR for the Bills gives him a chance to get more targets than he should.

This is totally on point. On 20 NFL teams, the ball never even gets there. 
Beane wanted a new WR2 but draft circumstance got TE1.

[mjt328]

Gabe Davis is a good #2.  He's had some drop problems.  He's made some very impressive catches.  Overall, not on the same level is Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, Devonte Smith, etc.  But when healthy, he's better than what most teams have in that spot.

 

The key for our offense is... if teams put the extra focus on Stefon Diggs, do we have other options that are capable of stepping up and producing?  A couple years ago, the answer was mostly yes (with Cole Beasley working the slot).  Last year, the answer was mostly no.  That's one of the main reasons we struggled in the second half of the season.

 

So far this season, we have a strong running game.  We have several short options in Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, etc.  The times we've called on Davis, he's done well.  We've gotten a few nice plays from the #3-5 guys too.  Outside of Week 1, Josh Allen is spreading the ball around and taking what the defense gives him.  It's working pretty well.

 

Right now, I'm satisfied with Davis as #2.  Now if Diggs gets hurt, it may be a completely different story.  But right now, I think we have enough weapons to continue playing well on offense.  As far as signing an extension, I think Beane would be able to find similar production at a cheaper price.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Gronk was a significantly slower player in 2018 after a couple of ACL tears and the numbers bear it out. Edelman was a product of Brady — full stop.

 

 

They caught like 17 of 19 combined targets for 220 yards in the SB win over the Rams..........absurdly good performance by a star receiver who was in the middle of 3 straight years where he was a legit WR1 and a HOF TE who is basically the same age as Travis Kelce........he wasn't some washed out player.

 

Terrible take, dave.

[dave mcbride]

53 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

They caught like 17 of 19 combined targets for 220 yards in the SB win over the Rams..........absurdly good performance by a star receiver who was in the middle of 3 straight years where he was a legit WR1 and a HOF TE who is basically the same age as Travis Kelce........he wasn't some washed out player.

 

Terrible take, dave.

You're arguing stats in a game where they had only 3 points over halfway through the 4th quarter? If the Rams had any semblance of an offense in that game, they would have won easily. Gronk was still good, yeah, but he was nowhere near as productive -- and as importantly, as fast -- at that point as earlier in his career. I view him as the best TE ever, but he wasn't the same by that point. And Cole Beasley likely would have put up the same numbers as Edelman if he had the GOAT throwing to him. I am convinced of that.  James White was their leader in receptions that year. People don't give Brady the credit he deserves. He's the best ever, and he made receivers rather than the reverse. He had only two studs over the course of his career - Moss for a short window and Gronk. 

Edited October 4, 2023 by dave mcbride