Rookie Playing Time in McDermott Era

[bigK14094]

14 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

My concern with Elam is the fact that McDermott usually does start his first round rookies their rookie season.  The fact that he was benched for the corpse of Xavier Rhodes against the Pats last year was concerning.  The fact that a fifth round rookie the same year split time with him last year is concerning.  That he's not the clear cut starting CB opposite Tre White going into this year is concerning.  If you can't tell I'm concerned.

I think that Jackson, Elam and Benford are all in play to be starters.  I also think the brain trust saw how bad Tre White was last year and it has crossed their mind that Tre might not ever get back to the all Pro form he got paid for.

[WhoTom]

7 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

If we trotted out Fitzpatrick for a year.. Josh absolutely could have learned from the bench

 

Fitz would have been the perfect mentor for Josh. They have the same gunslinger mentality and they're both good at improvising. My first impression of Josh, and it holds true today, is that he's a more talented version of Fitz.

 

 

[Augie]

Just now, WhoTom said:

 

Fitz would have been the perfect mentor for Josh. They have the same gunslinger mentality and they're both good at improvising. My first impression of Josh, and it holds true today, is that he's a more talented version of Fitz.

 

 

 

They should do a shaving commercial together. You could take that in so many directions!  😂 

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

Fitz would have been the perfect mentor for Josh. They have the same gunslinger mentality and they're both good at improvising. My first impression of Josh, and it holds true today, is that he's a more talented version of Fitz.

 

 

Well they do have a slightly similar style ..  gutsy tough slingers 

 

And yea fitz is like josh ... If Fitz was 6'5 240 pounds with a howitzer and can jump like a small forward 

 

Basically Superman Fitz on every Mexican steroid 

Edited August 7, 2023 by Buffalo716

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Well I am telling you for a fact that Dennison lobbied for the 2017 switch. I don't know for definite what happened in 2018. I was told Daboll wanted to start Josh and there were people in the building who felt he intentionally exposed Peterman (rather than giving him a babying gameplan to hide his flaws) but that was from a far less reputable source then the Dennison information which I would stake my reputation on being true. 

 

Whatever happened, but we all know that McD didn't have too many people in his corner on the decision, and whatever happened, McD put his stamp of approval on it and he's the HC and makes the final decisions.  I think.  Depends upon whom we ask I suppose.  LOL  

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

3 hours ago, Augie said:

 

I know he doesn’t have breakaway speed, but Singletary can make guys miss and has a career 4.7 YPC. That ain’t too shabby and I don’t think he got enough credit during his time here. 

 

Motor had some talent, for sure.  But neither his vision, elusiveness, nor power were elite.   I personally think his 4.7 YPC was primarily a result of the Bills system.  Defenses knew the Bills are a passing offense.   OCs schemed for Josh.  Opposing DE's set their sights on Josh.  LBs took a backward step first, expecting pass.  The D was probably aligned in a pass defense of some kind, nickel or dime.  And they were only worried about one thing: stopping Allen.  Not only was Josh's arm a threat, but so were his legs.  In fact, Josh was the only running threat opponents took seriously when Motor was here.   Motor was an afterthought.  We were never going to win a game on the strength of his running, so defenses didn't prioritize him.  

 

I liked Motor for his eponymous motor.  But I guess you can count me as one of the people who didn't give him enough credit.  

 

I hope Motor does well, post-Buffalo, but we'll see.   Here in Buffalo, I think the backfield is better this year than last - though I'm bummed Nyheim got hurt.  

[Augie]

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

Motor had some talent, for sure.  But neither his vision, elusiveness, nor power were elite.   I personally think his 4.7 YPC was primarily a result of the Bills system.  Defenses knew the Bills are a passing offense.   OCs schemed for Josh.  Opposing DE's set their sights on Josh.  LBs took a backward step first, expecting pass.  The D was probably aligned in a pass defense of some kind, nickel or dime.  And they were only worried about one thing: stopping Allen.  Not only was Josh's arm a threat, but so were his legs.  In fact, Josh was the only running threat opponents took seriously when Motor was here.   Motor was an afterthought.  We were never going to win a game on the strength of his running, so defenses didn't prioritize him.  

 

I liked Motor for his eponymous motor.  But I guess you can count me as one of the people who didn't give him enough credit.  

 

I hope Motor does well, post-Buffalo, but we'll see.   Here in Buffalo, I think the backfield is better this year than last - though I'm bummed Nyheim got hurt.  

 

Don’t get me wrong, I was all for upgrading with more speed, but I think some people didn’t appreciate that he’s no chump. And yes, the Hines injury BLOWS. Especially with something so senseless and freaky. 

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

You Can't intentionally expose Nathan Peterman

 

That means there was something good there in the first spot ... Like he was masking being good

 

 

Ha. I agree. I watched his college film and thought he was undraftable. But the rumour in the Bills building was Daboll was all about making sure people realised quite quickly and there was no danger of him being asked to polish a turd for more than a half.

23 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Whatever happened, but we all know that McD didn't have too many people in his corner on the decision, and whatever happened, McD put his stamp of approval on it and he's the HC and makes the final decisions.  I think.  Depends upon whom we ask I suppose.  LOL  

 

 

Of course it was McDermott's final decision. And he never shirked it at all. Both times he chose to start Peterman over other options he owned it and accepted the mistake. 

 

The 2018 mistake I do partly blame Beane for. His "wait out the first couple of days of FA and take the scraps" strategy resulted in our "true vet" option being AJ McCarron. Once it was apparent he sucked (no surprise) they were on to start Josh vs start Nate and I think what happened is they were trying to protect Josh rather than ask "who is the better guy?" But it should have been apparent to everyone in that building that Nate Peterman sucked. I can't think of a worse NFL QB who has started for multiple teams in my 20 years of watching the league.

[mrags]

5 hours ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

This is what he said about Bernard just one year ago.  

 

I really feel like you cherry picked from full topic there. The first link I said I thought he would be in on situational downs. And the 2nd one I not only reiterated that, but I also ended it by saying I liked him as a player but also hoped I would be proven wrong. Fact is he’s too small to play LB in the league. He was then and he still is as it looks like he hasn’t gained any weight or muscle in his first offseason. The fact is he’s better suited to play WLB in this league. He’s actually more like a safety than LB. Which is where I thought we would use him, In certain situations. The fact is we didn’t. The fact is that (as the OP stated) he played a seriously low amount of snaps. McDermott didn’t find ways to get him on the field and use him the way he should have been. Even if you don’t consider a 3rd round pick to a a sure thing for any impact, the fact is he earned almost zero playing time. And it’s shown so far in this camp. Can’t beat out Dodson or even Spector for that matter. he was a wasted pick. 
 

It may be too soon to call it that on Williams. But the facts are he’s like a mirror image of Bernard. And they’ve already admitted that he’s not going to play MLB by not giving him any reps there. By filling him in to a backup WLB role. 
 

 

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Think it is early to call that on Williams. A more legit criticism of that pick is that they knew when they drafted him he was a WILL in their system... and their current WILL is one of their best players. I think Williams has a chance to be an NFL player. Bernard, however..... I agree with your analysis. 

I agree somewhat with this. They seem to be wanting to use Williams as WLB. But it doesn’t help with their serious need at MLB. 

[mrags]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Glad to know you can predict their future already.  Got any stock picks or lottery numbers?

Well I mean Bernard got on the field for a seriously low number of snaps last year. And he can’t seem to ensure a starting spot over an undrafted MLB and a 7th round pick so far. So I’d say it’s a long shot. 

[Chaos]

16 hours ago, jwhit34 said:

It seems that it has been said so many times that Sean McDermott does not usually give substantial playing time to rookies that this is accepted as fact. I looked at the snap counts of all draft picks that made the roster in their rookie year from 2017-2022. Here is what I found, grouping by round:

 

First Round

Player                          # Snaps          % Snaps

T. White                     1,093                  99%

J. Allen                          719                  68%

T. Edmunds                  926                  91%

E. Oliver                        556                  54% (most by a DT, only behind Hughes and Murphy on DL who had 64% and 65%)

G. Rousseau                 531                  49% (3rd most behind Oliver and Hughes, 58% and 52%)

K. Elam                         477                  45% (3rd behind D. Jackson and T. Johnson)

 

2nd Round

Player                          # Snaps          % Snaps

Z. Jones                      792                    75%

D. Dawkins                  781                    74%

C. Ford                        739                    69%  (5th on OL)

A. Epenesa                 291                     27%

B. Basham                   201                    19%

J. Cook                        269                    25%

 

3rd Round

Player                           # Snaps             % Snaps

H. Phillips                    389                    38% (3rd for DT behind K. Williams and Star)

D. Singletary               530                     50% (most by RB, Gore 2nd with 35%)

D. Knox                        646                     60% (more than double any TE)

Z. Moss                        403                     37% (2nd to Singletary)

S. Brown                       726                     61%

T. Bernard                    110                       11%

 

4th Round

Player                             # Snaps               % Snaps

T. Johnson                    405                    40% (only behind White and Wallace)

G. Davis                         797                     73%

 

Notables - Rounds 5-7

Matt Milano  (5th) played 41% of snaps but started last half of season

Wyatt Teller (5th) played 45% of snaps and had 3rd highest # for guards

Darryl Johnson (7th) played 22% of snaps

Tyler Bass (6th) has been their kicker since his rookie year

Dane Jackson (7th) played 18% of snaps

Christian Benford (6tth) played 34% of snaps despite his injuries 

 

Conclusions:

• First rounders have all started their rookie year with Elam the only one that was a part time starter.
• 2nd rounders have played less as the team has gotten better.
• Bernard has been the only 3rd rounder who did not get significant playing time as a rookie. The 3rd round has been pretty good for them. 
• Beane likes to trade his 4th round picks but given the success of Davis and Johnson maybe he should hang onto them more often.
• Rounds 5-7 you don't expect contributions right away but it seems just about every year they find someone who can get on the field.
• Opinion seems to be influenced by the last 2-3 draft classes. The reality is that as the team has gotten better it is more difficult for rookies to play a lot in their first year, it's not necessarily that the coaches don't want to play rookies.                 

 

This data would indicate that McDermott does not hesitate to use rookies in meaningful roles in their first year. 

 

 

Compare this to the last couple of Super Bowl winners. 

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, mrags said:

 

I agree somewhat with this. They seem to be wanting to use Williams as WLB. But it doesn’t help with their serious need at MLB. 

 

It doesn't. But it isn't fair to say he can't play in the NFL.

[mrags]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It doesn't. But it isn't fair to say he can't play in the NFL.

Well. I mean I’m factually incorrect considering he IS IN THE NFL now. Bit imo he will never get significant playing time. The most he will we be is a special teamer and at best a backup.  He’s too small to play the position in the League. Of course I’ll continue to hear and see evidence of players being similar sizes and blah blah blah. I guess I’ll hope I’m going to be wrong but I’d put money on it that I’m right. 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

The 2018 mistake I do partly blame Beane for. His "wait out the first couple of days of FA and take the scraps" strategy resulted in our "true vet" option being AJ McCarron. Once it was apparent he sucked (no surprise) they were on to start Josh vs start Nate and I think what happened is they were trying to protect Josh rather than ask "who is the better guy?" But it should have been apparent to everyone in that building that Nate Peterman sucked. I can't think of a worse NFL QB who has started for multiple teams in my 20 years of watching the league.

 

As usual, what bothered me is the statements made to the public as if some of us are stupid.  Peterman giving us the best chance to win ... whatever.  Taylor would have been much better.  I realize that they have to play the media game, but there's often a fine line between humiliating yourself and looking like a buffoon and couching statements to try and deflect.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, mrags said:

Well. I mean I’m factually incorrect considering he IS IN THE NFL now. Bit imo he will never get significant playing time. The most he will we be is a special teamer and at best a backup.  He’s too small to play the position in the League. Of course I’ll continue to hear and see evidence of players being similar sizes and blah blah blah. I guess I’ll hope I’m going to be wrong but I’d put money on it that I’m right. 

 

He isn't too small to be a WILL.

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

As usual, what bothered me is the statements made to the public as if some of us are stupid.  Peterman giving us the best chance to win ... whatever.  Taylor would have been much better.  I realize that they have to play the media game, but there's often a fine line between humiliating yourself and looking like a buffoon and couching statements to try and deflect.  

 

 

I don't get super wound up by what sports coaches say to the media. It's all a game. And I say that as a former member of said media. Media members ask questions we know the answer to to try and elicit a headline for our story. Coaches give us stock answers we all know are half truths to try and prevent what one great soccer coach once described to me as "the fires of chaos" descending. It's a game. We know both times he owned it to the team and accepted accountability for his error. That is all that really matters. 

[mrags]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He isn't too small to be a WILL.

Look at him side by side next to Milano and say that 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, mrags said:

Look at him side by side next to Milano and say that 

 

I'd still say that.

[PBF81]

We'll know very soon what's going on at MLB. 

 

I wouldn't consider that they don't try to eliminate the position altogether in favor of two OLBs.  They're always so giddy about versatile players and confusing D looks, they may try something like that.  I wouldn't do it, but it may be better than using an undersized MLB that simply doesn't have the umph to get the job done.  

 

You know MO, that it's going to be an issue.  As with rags, we hope we're wrong.  But there's nothing in the draft profiles of any of those two recent draftees that suggests they're capable of playing the position.  Bernard was a reach in the 3rd according to most draft profiles.  

 

We'll see what happens.  

 

 

Edited August 7, 2023 by PBF81

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

We'll know very soon what's going on at MLB. 

 

I wouldn't consider that they try to eliminate the position altogether in favor of two OLBs.  They're always so giddy about versatile players and confusing D looks, they may try something like that.  I wouldn't do it, but it may be better than using an undersized MLB that simply doesn't have the umph to get the job done.  

 

You know MO, that it's going to be an issue.  As with rags, we hope we're wrong.  But there's nothing in the draft profiles of any of those two recent draftees that suggests they're capable of playing the position.  Bernard was a reach in the 3rd according to most draft profiles.  

 

We'll see what happens.  

 

 

 

I did consider the "they will plug Williams in at WILL and slide Milano into the middle" option and go with two undersized guys right after the draft. That is on record. Because I thought throughout the draft process that Williams was a WILL not a MIKE. But Beane immediately dismissed it as an idea. It wouldn't be my ideal look but I do think it might be the best way of maximising the talent they have at some stage.

 

Dodson is a backup level talent and I am not sure Bernard belongs in the league.