Deep dive ( McDermott )

[Doc Brown]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Beane is good but far from perfect 

 

He literally didn’t draft Tre , Dawkins or Milano … cornerstones … hitting on Allen IS his godsend 

 

he’s made head scratcher’s and good decisions 

Plus, without the controversial moves at the time (trading Watkins, Darby, and then Glenn) Beane doesn't have enough draft ammunition to go up and draft Allen.

[Buffalo716]

6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Plus, without the controversial moves at the time (trading Watkins, Darby, and then Glenn) Beane doesn't have enough draft ammunition to go up and draft Allen.

Absolutely he made some decisions that had to be made

 

his last few drafts will be up for debate … it’s too early to completely judge 

 

[PBF81]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Absolutely he made some decisions that had to be made

 

his last few drafts will be up for debate … it’s too early to completely judge 

 

It may be too early to judge the last draft, maybe the 2021 Draft as well, but there's a clear pattern in his drafting and it's anything but good.  

 

It shouldn't be hyperbole to suggest that unless that trend takes a serious turn upwards re: his 2021 & 2022 Drafts, then it will be problematic for his career.  

 

 

[Beck Water]

21 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

It may be too early to judge the last draft, maybe the 2021 Draft as well, but there's a clear pattern in his drafting and it's anything but good.  

 

It shouldn't be hyperbole to suggest that unless that trend takes a serious turn upwards re: his 2021 & 2022 Drafts, then it will be problematic for his career.  

 

 

 

What is that pattern?

 

Keep in mind you can't look at a GM's drafting in the abstract and say "it's bad"

It has to be viewed in context - the overall success rate league-wide for finding a guy who can play (not a stud superstar, just a quality NFL player) is something like 30-50% in the 1st and 2nd round, 20%-30% in the 3rd round and by the 4th and beyond something like 10%.

 

You can confirm this if you go to a site like pro-football-reference, scroll back to a draft that's got enough data to decide like 2020 or earlier, and look at the AV.  AV isn't perfect as an evaluation of a player's contributions, but it tracks pretty well. 

 

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Beck Water

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

The role of the coach is to see to it that two individual players post career days on offense while the rest of the team sorely underachieves?  

 

Well, OK.  I guess we'll have to agree to disagree then.  

 

And what game plan?  LOL  Can you identify what the game plan was in that game?   What, play worse with your #1 D than 80% of KC's opponents, don't run the ball well at all, and tell Allen to simply fling it to Davis all game for all the passing TDs?  

 

If that was the game plan, then why haven't they done it since?  It was a fantastic game plan, who would disagree.   

 

It's foolish not to use that game plan again.  I mean if it's that easy to get Allen to play like that, ... and Davis.  I'd love to seen our $96M WR have a playoff game even half of what that was on a regular basis.  Why can't McD get that into a game plan?  

 

Allen was simply hot that postseason.  If it was a gameplan, he'd have done the same in any of the other postseasons, which he hasn't done.  Either that or McD doesn't think it was that great a game plan I suppose.  

 

Just sayin' 

 

 

BTW, Allen had more passing TDs in those two games than he's had in 7 other playoff games total.  

 

That doesn't have game plan written on it.  

Oh, I misunderstood.

 

I see now.  McDermott gets blamed for everything that goes wrong and no credit for anything that goes right.  Guy should have been fired midway through his first season.

 

 

 

 

[PBF81]

14 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

What is that pattern?

 

Keep in mind you can't look at a GM's drafting in the abstract and say "it's bad"

It has to be viewed in context - the overall success rate league-wide for finding a guy who can play (not a stud superstar, just a quality NFL player) is something like 30-50% in the 1st and 2nd round, 20%-30% in the 3rd round and by the 4th and beyond something like 10%.

 

You can confirm this if you go to a site like pro-football-reference, scroll back to a draft that's got enough data to decide like 2020 or earlier, and look at the AV.

 

 

 

Well, OK, I won't say that it's bad.  Why don't you tell me what's good?  I've already asked this once from someone, nothing came back.  

 

People cannot simply keep screaming over and over that it's not bad, without pointing out why not.  

 

So again, what's the good?  What are the above-average much more impact draft picks that Beane's made, besides the obvious one of Allen, which many claim is carrying the team?  

 

13-3 and "made the playoffs" are not draft picks.  

 

Let's start there.  Doesn't matter the round, the percentages, etc.  Who's good?  

 

I'll let you prove me wrong, that there is no concerning trend or pattern here.  

 

 

 

 

12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Oh, I misunderstood.

 

I see now.  McDermott gets blamed for everything that goes wrong and no credit for anything that goes right.  Guy should have been fired midway through his first season.

 

Well that makes perfect sense if the reason why Allen & Davis went off, pretty much only in that particular game, was due to coaching. 

 

Are you signifying that what Allen and Davis did in that game was due to McD's coaching?  Daboll's?  Anyone's?  

If that's it simply say so.  If not, I guess I've got a point, right?   

 

I don't know where else this goes.  Help me out here ... 

 

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by PBF81

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, OK, I won't say that it's bad.  Why don't you tell me what's good?  I've already asked this once from someone, nothing came back.  

 

People cannot simply keep screaming over and over that it's not bad, without pointing out why not.  

 

So again, what's the good?  What are the above-average much more impact draft picks that Beane's made, besides the obvious one of Allen, which many claim is carrying the team?  

 

Let's start there.  Doesn't matter the round, the percentages, etc.  Who's good?  

 

I'll let you prove me wrong, that there is no concerning trend or pattern here. 

 

No offense, Mate, but I just let go of conversing with you in another thread where you didn't seem willing or able to process or acknowledge any points I made, and trivialized the actual argument I was making (whether deliberately or thru misunderstanding, I don't know.  I found it a somewhat frustrating interaction.

 

So I'll have to politely decline to take up your challenge

 

I do think, if you want to claim it's bad, you really ought to put forth some effort in objectively demonstrating that it's worse than the rest of the league, or worse than the top, say, 8 teams for the last 3 years.

If you want to claim a concerning pattern, there ought to be some "skin in your game" for stating what you believe that pattern to be, and again, demonstrating that it's there vs. how other top teams are drafting.

Edited June 18, 2023 by Beck Water

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

I do think, if you want to claim it's bad, you really ought to put forth some effort in objectively demonstrating that it's worse than the rest of the league, or worse than the top, say, 8 teams for the last 3 years.

 

I've done that, several times.  Just not in this thread.  Sorry you've missed it.  

 

I understand however.  Sleep well!   

 

 

By the way, I'm guessing that by the end of this forthcoming season the narrative around here is going to be quite a bit different.  If it is, then hopefully it'll shed a little more light on "where I've been wrong."  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Can we stop using the 2017 playoffs as proof McDermott is some kind of great coach lol, he was what one game better than Rex Ryan

 

Two games better than Rex's final season actually. 7-9 in 2016. The 2015 roster than went 8-8 is, without doubt in my mind, the most talented 53 (excluding QB) that the Bills have had in my fandom. Going .500 with that roster when our scheduled division cross overs had two winning records between them was an absolute travesty. I think there is an argument to say Rex actually did a slightly better job in his 7-8 (fired with one game to play) 2016 season than he did in 2015. The 2015 team came in at LEAST two wins under par.

[Toyo321]

Do you truly believe McD is on the same level as the following coaches, this is not in any particular order.

* = Denotes Superbowl appearance as a coach

• McVey  *
• Reid *
• Pederson *
• Belichick *
• Peyton *
• Taylor *
• Shanahan *
• Sirianni *
• Carroll *
• Tomlin *

I cant honestly put him on this list at all.   Every one of these coaches has gotten their team to a superbowl and they are IMO better coaches than McD.

Winning the regular season is the only aspect that McD excels at.  It's in the playoffs where he is a utter failure.

 

Do you really believe that the incident with Digg's this week does not show there are underlying problems with McD and this team.   Something is up and it is a big mystery right now.  Some how, some way it will eventually will come out what truly happened,  but there is no telling when.

 

No one knows what really went on behind closed doors this week, but I really believe Digg's is fed up with McD because he doesn't know how to win in the post season and utilize the talent the team has,  and "The Process"  in the locker room.   Diggs, Josh, Dorsey, and McD are not as solid as we were all led to believe and it spilled out into the open at the end of the Cincy game.  It does concern me that McD has issues when the season is on the line and you need to make changes or your done, its an obstacle he still to this day has not been able to get over. 

 

I just don't see McD coming up with a gameplan this year that would break us through to the SB, or that would beat KC or Cincy in the playoffs.  Hell even Miami & Jacksonville now has to be thrown into the mix this year as obstacles. 

 

The writing is on the wall with McD, Daboll left, Frazier gone, to many similarities and traits pointing to the Panthers.  The comparisons are to coincidental not to be discussed.  He has the knowledge and the experience; he just does not possess that elite killer instinct these other coaches above possess.  They have done what was needed to get their teams to a superbowl.  I just can't see McD doing this in the next two years.

 

I gave him the benefit of the doubt for the last 6 seasons he could do it for our team.  I just can't do that anymore.

 

Playoff wins are not the ultimate goal here,  a 4-5 W-L playoff record is nothing to write home about either.  To win a SB is,  and this is the one obstacle McD will never be able to get us over.

 

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Toyo321

[newcam2012]

11 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

The role of the coach is to see to it that two individual players post career days on offense while the rest of the team sorely underachieves?  

 

Well, OK.  I guess we'll have to agree to disagree then.  

 

And what game plan?  LOL  Can you identify what the game plan was in that game?   What, play worse with your #1 D than 80% of KC's opponents, don't run the ball well at all, and tell Allen to simply fling it to Davis all game for all the passing TDs?  

 

If that was the game plan, then why haven't they done it since?  It was a fantastic game plan, who would disagree.   

 

It's foolish not to use that game plan again.  I mean if it's that easy to get Allen to play like that, ... and Davis.  I'd love to seen our $96M WR have a playoff game even half of what that was on a regular basis.  Why can't McD get that into a game plan?  

 

Allen was simply hot that postseason.  If it was a gameplan, he'd have done the same in any of the other postseasons, which he hasn't done.  Either that or McD doesn't think it was that great a game plan I suppose.  

 

Just sayin' 

 

 

BTW, Allen had more passing TDs in those two games than he's had in 7 other playoff games total.  

 

That doesn't have game plan written on it.  

All McD had to do was stay out of the way and let Josh do his thing. I give him credit for doing so. 

 

When McD intervened it became a disaster. One for the NFL history books. Thus far, his legacy is 13 seconds into proven otherwise. 

 

Add injury to insult, look at the Cinci game. What was the game plan offensively and defensively? Still don't know what they learned from the prior meeting weeks before. 

 

 

[newcam2012]

28 minutes ago, Toyo321 said:

Do you truly believe McD is on the same level as the following coaches, this is not in any particular order.

* = Denotes Superbowl appearance as a coach

• McVey  *
• Reid *
• Pederson *
• Belichick *
• Peyton *
• Taylor *
• Shanahan *
• Sirianni *
• Carroll *
• Tomlin *

I cant honestly put him on this list at all.   Every one of these coaches has gotten their team to a superbowl and they are IMO better coaches then McD.

Winning the regular season is the only aspect the McD excels at.  It's in the playoffs where he is a utter failure.

 

Do you really believe that the incident with Digg's this week does not show there are underlying problems with McD and this team.   Something is up and it is a big mystery right now.  Some how, some way it will eventually will come out what truly happened,  but there is no telling when.

 

No one knows what really went on behind closed doors this week, but I really believe Digg's is fed up with McD because he doesn't know how to win in the post season and utilize the talent the team has,  and "The Process"  in the locker room.   Diggs, Josh, Dorsey, and McD are not as solid as we were all led to believe and it spilled out into the open at the end of the Cincy game.  It does concern me that the McD has issues when the season is on the line and you need to make changes or your done, its an obstacle he still to this day has not been able to get over. 

 

I just don't see McD coming up with a gameplan this year that would break us through to the SB, or that would beat KC or Cincy in the playoffs.  Hell even Miami & Jacksonville now has to be thrown into the mix in this year. 

 

The writing is on the wall with McD, Daboll left, Frazier gone, to many similarities and traits pointing to the Panthers.  The comparisons are to coincidental not to be discussed.  He has the knowledge and the experience; he just does not possess that elite killer instinct these other coaches above possess.  They have done what was needed to get their teams to a superbowl.  I just can't see McD doing this in the next two years.

 

I gave him the benefit of the doubt for the last 6 seasons he could do it for our team.  I just can't do that anymore.

 

Playoff wins are not the ultimate goal here,  a 4-5 W-L playoff record is nothing to write home about either.  To win a SB is,  and this the one obstacle McD will never be able to get us over.

 

 

I agree 100%. Fantastic breakdown and assessment. Took the words right out of my mouth!

 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

Right or wrong, as this (and like 12 other, less-good) thread indicates, the stink of “13 Seconds” continues to stick to McDermott.  There’s only one way to wash it off and he may be running out of time to do it.

 

And as I’ve said elsewhere, if Beane and McD waste Allen’s good years, it’ll almost be a war crime.

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, OK, I won't say that it's bad.  Why don't you tell me what's good?  I've already asked this once from someone, nothing came back.  

 

People cannot simply keep screaming over and over that it's not bad, without pointing out why not.  

 

So again, what's the good?  What are the above-average much more impact draft picks that Beane's made, besides the obvious one of Allen, which many claim is carrying the team?  

 

13-3 and "made the playoffs" are not draft picks.  

 

Let's start there.  Doesn't matter the round, the percentages, etc.  Who's good?  

 

I'll let you prove me wrong, that there is no concerning trend or pattern here.  

 

 

 

 

 

Well that makes perfect sense if the reason why Allen & Davis went off, pretty much only in that particular game, was due to coaching. 

 

Are you signifying that what Allen and Davis did in that game was due to McD's coaching?  Daboll's?  Anyone's?  

If that's it simply say so.  If not, I guess I've got a point, right?   

 

I don't know where else this goes.  Help me out here ... 

 

 

The value of a head coach cannot be measured by one play, one player, one series, or one game.  

 

The head coach is the captain of the ship, the chief executive officer of a company, the general of an army.   The head coach's job is to build a human machine to do a job.  That machine has 100 or more human parts, each with a distinct job to do.  The head coach starts working in Januray or February to design and build that machine.   A big part of the job is delegating parts of the design and construction to other people, because the head coach doesn't have time to do it all, or the expertise.  It's a difficult, complicated job, and very few people have even the basic abilities to do it.  It requires a combination of brains, energy, determination, leadership, communication, and several other things.  

 

Then, in September, he has to start running the machine, pulling all the levers, pushing all the buttons, to get the coaches to get the players to do all the things they need to do to win games.  The team is playing against other teams that have done the same thing, and by definition at the end of the season, 31 of 32 head coaches have failed to win the Super Bowl.   So, the task is complicated to a very great extent by the fact that there are 31 other head coaches trying to do the same thing.  It's also complicated by the fact that the parts of the machine aren't hunks of metal or plastic, they are human beings, and they fail for unexpected reasons.  It's further complicated by the fact that every week, the machine has to operate differently, has to adjust to the weather, to events, and to the machine you're playing, and that machine is adjusting, too.  The head coach doesn't know what he's going to get from week to week, and neither does the opponent.

 

Sean McDermott spent an entire year building a machine that lost to KC in the final 13 seconds.   But it was a machine that could generate touchdowns, seemingly at will, by letting Josh Allen throw the ball to Gabriel Davis.  It also was a machine that made some mistakes (mistakes being something to afflict every football team, because these are human beings, not manufactured parts).  

 

The machines Sean McDermott has built for the past few seasons have been some of the most successful winning machines in the league.  They haven't been perfect, but by the standards of the league, they have been very successful.  

 

In makes no sense to think, as you seem to think, that McDermott's job performance can be evaluated based on what worked or didn't work in one game.   As I said before, you're blaming McDermott for everything that has gone wrong and giving him credit for nothing that's gone right.  

 

Sean McDermott has the fourth best won-loss percentage of all active NFL coaches.  He is 8th among active coaches in playoff game appearances, and six of the seven coaches ahead of him on that list have been head coaches for two to three times as long as McDermott.  He has posted those numbers because he is very good at building football machines.   To suggest, based on what the Bills did in one game, that he should be on the "hot seat" or anything like that ignores the reality of the job McDermott has and how he has performed in that job.  

[PBF81]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The value of a head coach cannot be measured by one play, one player, one series, or one game.  

 

The head coach is the captain of the ship, the chief executive officer of a company, the general of an army.   The head coach's job is to build a human machine to do a job.  That machine has 100 or more human parts, each with a distinct job to do.  The head coach starts working in Januray or February to design and build that machine.   A big part of the job is delegating parts of the design and construction to other people, because the head coach doesn't have time to do it all, or the expertise.  It's a difficult, complicated job, and very few people have even the basic abilities to do it.  It requires a combination of brains, energy, determination, leadership, communication, and several other things.  

 

Then, in September, he has to start running the machine, pulling all the levers, pushing all the buttons, to get the coaches to get the players to do all the things they need to do to win games.  The team is playing against other teams that have done the same thing, and by definition at the end of the season, 31 of 32 head coaches have failed to win the Super Bowl.   So, the task is complicated to a very great extent by the fact that there are 31 other head coaches trying to do the same thing.  It's also complicated by the fact that the parts of the machine aren't hunks of metal or plastic, they are human beings, and they fail for unexpected reasons.  It's further complicated by the fact that every week, the machine has to operate differently, has to adjust to the weather, to events, and to the machine you're playing, and that machine is adjusting, too.  The head coach doesn't know what he's going to get from week to week, and neither does the opponent.

 

Sean McDermott spent an entire year building a machine that lost to KC in the final 13 seconds.   But it was a machine that could generate touchdowns, seemingly at will, by letting Josh Allen throw the ball to Gabriel Davis.  It also was a machine that made some mistakes (mistakes being something to afflict every football team, because these are human beings, not manufactured parts).  

 

The machines Sean McDermott has built for the past few seasons have been some of the most successful winning machines in the league.  They haven't been perfect, but by the standards of the league, they have been very successful.  

 

In makes no sense to think, as you seem to think, that McDermott's job performance can be evaluated based on what worked or didn't work in one game.   As I said before, you're blaming McDermott for everything that has gone wrong and giving him credit for nothing that's gone right.  

 

Sean McDermott has the fourth best won-loss percentage of all active NFL coaches.  He is 8th among active coaches in playoff game appearances, and six of the seven coaches ahead of him on that list have been head coaches for two to three times as long as McDermott.  He has posted those numbers because he is very good at building football machines.   To suggest, based on what the Bills did in one game, that he should be on the "hot seat" or anything like that ignores the reality of the job McDermott has and how he has performed in that job.  

 

All fine and dandy and a lot of common sense in there.

 

But this exchange began with you stating that Allen-to-Davis with both posting career games while the rest of the team stunk the joint up to epic put performance, was the game plan.  

 

I'm simply looking for clarification there.  

 

If that was the game plan, why hasn't it repealed itself, even with Diggs, in several seasons now.

 

IMO your digging a hole here.  Might be time to put the shovel down.  🙂

 

Happy Father's Day BTW, presumably you are!  🙂

 

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by PBF81

[Maynard]

12 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

Brian Daboll was fired from 3 jobs as a coordinator and wasn’t part of McDermotts 1 year playoff turnaround with one of the worst nfl rosters 

 

dont act like Daboll is head and shoulders above McDermott 

Didn’t say he was head and shoulders better. I’m looking at it from the perspective of what would have been best for Allen. Allen is ALL that matters. 

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

 

 

But this exchange began with you stating that Allen-to-Davis with both posting career games while the rest of the team stunk the joint up to epic put performance, was the game plan.  

YOU said I said that.  I didn't say that.   I said that McDermott contributed to the game plan, whatever it was.  Obviously, the Bills had figured out something that was getting Davis wide open, and the sum total of ten months of leadership and input from McDermott was in some way part of what led to that plan.  

 

The Bills scored 36 points, gained 438 yards, had no turnovers and were penalized 15 yards.  It doesn't make any sense whatsoever to say the rest of the team stunk.  

[Bobby Hooks]

16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

YOU said I said that.  I didn't say that.   I said that McDermott contributed to the game plan, whatever it was.  Obviously, the Bills had figured out something that was getting Davis wide open, and the sum total of ten months of leadership and input from McDermott was in some way part of what led to that plan.  

 

The Bills scored 36 points, gained 438 yards, had no turnovers and were penalized 15 yards.  It doesn't make any sense whatsoever to say the rest of the team stunk.  

I know this is the point of the entire message board, but if I can make an observation. You’re fighting a battle that can’t be won (even though you clearly already have in the post leading up to this one), or even come to a place where both people come away with an understanding of the other persons perspective. 
 

If you receive a response to this, it will in some form or another be a question about one point that further leads you into the rabbit hole, while completely ignoring all of the excellent points you’ve already made by saying something like “that’s all fine and dandy, but…” 

 

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Bobby Hooks

[PBF81]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

YOU said I said that.  I didn't say that.   I said that McDermott contributed to the game plan, whatever it was.  Obviously, the Bills had figured out something that was getting Davis wide open, and the sum total of ten months of leadership and input from McDermott was in some way part of what led to that plan.  

 

The Bills scored 36 points, gained 438 yards, had no turnovers and were penalized 15 yards.  It doesn't make any sense whatsoever to say the rest of the team stunk.  

 

Correct, that's how it began.  Then you insisted that that the entire reason for that win was "game plan."  To which I [wholeheartedly] disagreed.  

 

I've already pointed out that only Oliver did much on offense, we allowed more points to the Chiefs, with the #1 D, that only a few other teams, three to be precised, having scoring D's ranked from 18th to worse, much worse, that our running game did nothing, Diggs did nothing (3 catches for 7 yards), etc., and by implication you're now claiming that that wasn't "stunk."  

 

LOL, seriously?  
 

So question then, how many games do you think we win, say this season, if our running game runs for 41 or so yards on 13 or so carries, and only one person in our front-7 logs a sack, TFL, or QB Hit, and without Allen throwing 4 TDs?  

 

I'm guessing that on those two points alone, if you put this question out to the football loving world, the answer with the greatest frequency would be akin to "not too many."  

 

Allen's only thrown for 4+ TDs 9 times during the regular season, only three times against playoff teams, never against any team that's gone past the Divisional Round.  He's done it twice more in the playoffs, in the season that we're talking about, vs. KC and NE the prior week when he had 5.  ... for reference purposes.  

 

Go ahead and post a poll here, ask if the results of the KC "13 Seconds" game, to the extent that we excelled, were "game plan" or simply Allen being Allen and Davis posting a career day.  

 

And BTW, the other thing to keep in mind here is that KC, while good, had anything but a good Defense, which ranked 15th in Scoring D and 28th in Yardage D.  Their passing D was very average.  It's not as if we were playing the '85 Bears while we were on offense.  That's relevant as well.  

 

 

[PBF81]

39 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

YOU said I said that.  I didn't say that.   I said that McDermott contributed to the game plan, whatever it was.  Obviously, the Bills had figured out something that was getting Davis wide open, and the sum total of ten months of leadership and input from McDermott was in some way part of what led to that plan.  

 

The Bills scored 36 points, gained 438 yards, had no turnovers and were penalized 15 yards.  It doesn't make any sense whatsoever to say the rest of the team stunk.  

 

BTW, I think that if you go back and rewatch those four TD plays, like I just did, you'll notice that it was largely individual effort that generated those, not great plays much less a great "game plan" as you insist.  

 

On all four Knox was also wide open.  On the last one Diggs was as open as Davis.  

 

The KC D looked entirely overwhelmed talent wise.  

 

If the excuse last season was that "we were flat," it's equally valid that we were simply on for that and the NE playoff game a week earlier.  

 

But I have no idea how after rewatching those how anyone can claim that Allen-Davis in that game was game-planning.  

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d63gipMMUeA

 

And again, KC's D was average at best.