Situational Football (Preventing teams from scoring w seconds left)

[HoofHearted]

13 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

I might barely even rush - 2 or 3 safeties deep and man coverage underneath.  Have 1 guy spy and 2 guys rush.  

This is exactly what they did.

[LeGOATski]

My thoughts:

 

When talking about pressure in that situation, I say rush 4. I'm fine with rushing 4 DLs while remaining disciplined OR rushing 3 DL and spy/rush a LB (which the Bills did.) As long as you don't blitz Mahomes. History has proven that doesn't work.

 

This brings up the LB's dilemma: Milano has to play that perfectly; the spy and the rush, which I don't think he did at the end of the first half, but he played it perfectly at the end of the game.

 

Next thought: in last season's AFCC the Bengals proved that rushing 3 and adding more DBs works against the Chiefs offense. The Bills did essentially this, but without the DBs. The Bills are able to keep both LBs in because of (at risk of derailing the thread) Tremain Edmunds' coverage skills.

 

I think the 3 DL rushers with the LB spying/rushing is perfect, it just requires that LB to play with conviction (identify where Mahomes is moving to and then go!)

 

I was worried about Milano in that first half because he was hesitating, like he was thinking to much. However, he turned it on in the 2nd half with some instinctual plays. I think we saw that reflected in the results at the end of each half, too.

 

 

[HoofHearted]

2 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

My thoughts:

 

When talking about pressure in that situation, I say rush 4. I'm fine with rushing 4 DLs while remaining disciplined OR rushing 3 DL and spy/rush a LB (which the Bills did.) As long as you don't blitz Mahomes. History has proven that doesn't work.

 

This brings up the LB's dilemma: Milano has to play that perfectly; the spy and the rush, which I don't think he did at the end of the first half, but he played it perfectly at the end of the game.

 

Next thought: in last season's AFCC the Bengals proved that rushing 3 and adding more DBs works against the Chiefs offense. The Bills did essentially this, but without the DBs. The Bills are able to keep both LBs in because of (at risk of derailing the thread) Tremain Edmunds' coverage skills.

 

I think the 3 DL rushers with the LB spying/rushing is perfect, it just requires that LB to play with conviction (identify where Mahomes is moving to and then go!)

 

I was worried about Milano in that first half because he was hesitating, like he was thinking to much. However, he turned it on in the 2nd half with some instinctual plays. I think we saw that reflected in the results at the end of each half, too.

 

 

Milano wasn't spying at the end of the first half - he was playing man coverage.

[bobobonators]

1 minute ago, HoofHearted said:

They did double him. With Tremaine and what looks like Rousseau.

That clearly didn’t work. Last year we had Hill to contend with, too. We knew they’d be going to Kelce yesterday and we still couldn’t stop it. 2 corners on him? Rush 3? Foul him at the LOS and put him on the ground? My personal goal would be for something like this to not happen again.
 

30 seconds to 1 min is a lot of time and i get a team like KC will probably find a way. But less than 16 sec we need to put up a Zero there on defense. 
 

And this is by no means a negative thread. Im ecstatic about the win. Im just thinking about the future and how the team should approach this scenario bc im sure it’ll come up again. 

[HoofHearted]

2 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

That clearly didn’t work. Last year we had Hill to contend with, too. We knew they’d be going to Kelce yesterday and we still couldn’t stop it. 2 corners on him? Rush 3? Foul him at the LOS and put him on the ground? My personal goal would be for something like this to not happen again.
 

30 seconds to 1 min is a lot of time and i get a team like KC will probably find a way. But less than 16 sec we need to put up a Zero there on defense. 
 

And this is by no means a negative thread. Im ecstatic about the win. Im just thinking about the future and how the team should approach this scenario bc im sure it’ll come up again. 

The reason it didn't work is because of the pre-snap motion. It was initially double coverage between Rousseau and Milano, but the motion out the backfield pulled Milano off the coverage on Kelce and put it on the back. Edmunds was then tasked with picking up the man coverage on Kelce while coming from across the field. Well designed scheme from KC against our man coverage. Allowed them to throw the hot.

 

I'm with you though - they need to line up whoever their edge rusher is on that side of the field and run through Kelce's face at the LoS to at least throw off some timing.

[L Ron Burgundy]

Idc about the kick so much they need to do something about their prevent defense.  Like maybe don't do it.

[Motorin']

42 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Bad angle by Taron on the first play to McKinnon. Should have been tackled at the 37ish with about 7 seconds left.

 

And they would have had to use their last TO. So they wouldn't have been able to exploit the middle of the field. 

 

Still don't like the prevent D...

 

I do like the high kick to the 5 in that situation better than the squib. I like the Bills cover team to stop them inside their 20 on the play and burn a few seconds off the clock. Want to fair catch it at the 5?  Go for it. 

Edited October 17, 2022 by Motorin'

[bobobonators]

1 minute ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Idc about the kick so much they need to do something about their prevent defense.  Like maybe don't do it.

I kinda agree. Im either in favor of blitzing or rush 3 but change up the “prevent” defense to having only 1LB (spy) on the field and dropping 7 DB’s into coverage. But not having the DB’s give such a cushion keep the defenders closer to the LOS. I think our DB’s are that good that I’m not overly concerned having a WR get behind out safeties there. 

[LeGOATski]

21 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Milano wasn't spying at the end of the first half - he was playing man coverage.

When they gave up the catch and run to Moore or whoever it was, Milano was spying Mahomes.

[MJS]

I hate squib kicks, personally. I think they are almost useless. The clock doesn't start until you touch it, so why have them start with great field position? Kick the ball down to their 5 yard line, forcing them to return it and take time off the clock. If you are deathly afraid of their returner and still need to take time off the clock, kick a directional kick away from them.

 

Squibs are just not effective.

[HoofHearted]

3 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

When they gave up the catch and run to Moore or whoever it was, Milano was spying Mahomes.

Yeah, thought you were talking about the last play to Kelce. The play you're talking about there wasn't much else Milano could do, Mahomes stayed in the pocket so he was just in no man's land waiting for Mahomes to escape.

[Dan]

The squib quick took 4 seconds off the clock, from 16 to 12.   And the Chiefs started at the 28.   Kick in the endzone... and they start at the 25, with an extra play. 
 

Yea, high kicking to the 5 seems like the sure way to run time and not get a start much past the 25.  But its no guarantee.   The ball could easily go into the endzone, bounce out of bounds, or the returner actually make a guy miss.   So I’m squib kicking every time. 
 

My question is about the stadium clock.  So with 5 seconds left, they hike the ball, pass to Kelce, he dives forward, they get 9 yds on the play, and call a time out. All within 4 seconds!?   That.... is what seems improbable to me. 

[billsfan1959]

54 minutes ago, bobobonators said:

Id like to have a general convo about what happened yesterday to end the first half. 
 

Yesterday we squib kicked it which I was okay with although it still gave them decent field position.

1. Do we think this is the right approach in that situation? Or

2. Do we think it would be better for Bass to kick it as high up as he can so the ball stays inbounds but ends up inside the 20?

 

On the defensive side. I hate when we kind of go in prevent mode to try and limit the big play. Time and time again we see how we can give up 15-20yd plays in a few seconds.

1. Should we try bringing more pressure in these situations or bringing the secondary closer to the LOS so we aren’t giving them such a cushion underneath? Or

2. Did we do everything right on the defensive side? 
 

I was bothered that we were able to give up 3points again in such a short amount of time. Imagine if that had been the 4th quarter and thats how we lose? We need to have a better approach in these situations.
 

Kudos to buttlicker for making that 60+yd FG but again 3 points in 16 seconds. I think the main issue may have been they only had to go 28yds so perhaps the answer is on kickoff. We need to pin them back further and then on defense we can’t just give them a cushion or be conservative. We still need to attack. Im not quite sure. 
 

Thoughts?

 

Giving up 29 yards in 16 seconds to Mahomes isn't exactly a monumental defensive failure.

 

Right before that, KC gave up 96 yards in 73 seconds for a TD.

 

Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are in their own class - and they do those kinds of things.

[Simon]

They've ben running the mortar kick very successfully for two years now.

I cannot understand why they feel the need to abandon it at the exact moment it would be the correct call.

[folz]

A bit off topic from how to prevent a team like KC in those situations (Mahomes is just that good and Butker nailing a 62-yarder...not going to happen too often). 

 

But, I'd like to give some props to McDermott. He always talks about growth mindset and learning from your mistakes...and he takes that to heart for himself and his coaching staff too, not just the players. And I'm sure the end of the first half had shades of 13 seconds for the team as well as the fans. But, the props are for how they closed out the Baltimore game and the KC game yesterday (2nd half). I wouldn't be surprised if coach spent a lot of time in the offseason researching clock management, etc. at the end of games, as the team has overall handled it well so far this season.

[Brand J]

It was said the Bills ran a lot of dime packages this game. Which LB came off the field? Edmunds? 

[LeGOATski]

Just now, HoofHearted said:

Yeah, thought you were talking about the last play to Kelce. The play you're talking about there wasn't much else Milano could do, Mahomes stayed in the pocket so he was just in no man's land waiting for Mahomes to escape.

He's not supposed to wait for Mahomes to escape. It's a spy-rush or delayed rush. He needed to rush quicker. Right after the snap, the Chiefs LT/LG double Miller (same thing their right side did on the final play) and Milano need to rush through the lane immediately. He has Mahomes dead to rights where he can't escape up the middle and has Groot pushing the RT back. It would at the very least rush Mahomes' throw. Mahomes probably still would've gotten the pass off. The coverage was deeper on this play and then Taron missed the tackle.

[HoofHearted]

4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

He's not supposed to wait for Mahomes to escape. It's a spy-rush or delayed rush. He needed to rush quicker. Right after the snap, the Chiefs LT/LG double Miller (same thing their right side did on the final play) and Milano need to rush through the lane immediately. He has Mahomes dead to rights where he can't escape up the middle and has Groot pushing the RT back. It would at the very least rush Mahomes' throw. Mahomes probably still would've gotten the pass off. The coverage was deeper on this play and then Taron missed the tackle.

Yes, that's the whole point of a Spy. Play low hole coverage until the QB leaves contain or steps up in the pocket then you're an add-on. Mahomes did neither.

Edited October 17, 2022 by HoofHearted

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Yes, that's the whole point of a Spy. Play low hole coverage until the QB leaves contain or steps up in the pocket then you're an add-on. Mahomes did neither.

That's not the technique in this case. If you wait for Mahomes to escape or let him sit in the pocket you're already beat. Think of it as a delayed rush then, if that helps.

[HoofHearted]

1 minute ago, LeGOATski said:

That's not the technique in this case. If you wait for Mahomes to escape or let him sit in the pocket you're already beat. Think of it as a delayed rush then, if that helps.

It is though. You see it all game long.