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My draft recap and random thoughts.


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Just now, eball said:

 

Unless I’m completely misreading the tea leaves, the plan is obvious.  Edmunds is going to be a Bill for a long time.

 

Great recap, @NewEra

 

I still feel like their preferred plan is for him to play on the option, ball out and earn the extension. But I do wonder with the need for money to just meet the cap with the 53 that Beane referred to yesterday whether the easiest way to create space isn't to extend Edmunds, lowering that hit. I think the Bills will only do that if they can make the extension team friendly in terms of outs. I think they still like Tremaine but they would rather not be totally tied in for the long term. If he is willing to do a flexible deal where he doesn't get huge guaranteed money beyond the first two years and then the future years guarantee almost one at a time after that I think there is a deal to be done. 

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3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Spector has a chance because he is going to be a demon on special teams. Those backup linebacker spots are always about special teams first and foremost. 

 

He reminds me of AJ Klein honestly. Spector is a bit smaller and more athletic and explosive. Spector should be able to gain 10 lbs in an NFL strength program and his instincts will play. I really like him.  

 

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3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I feel like part of that is the drafting BPA for need strategy as they shore up the defense. I think the other part about that is when their time has come on the ####, a lot of the defensive players on the board were just better than the offense imo. 

 

2022 - Elam was the right pick over guys like Hall and Watson. 2nd round Cook works. 

 

2021 - The argument can be made that they should have taken Elijah Moore or Javonte Williams. I think they made the right choice in Rousseau. Rd 2, I like Basham more than most, but they should have taken Creed Humphrey. 

 

2020 - Diggs trade rd 1 (If they didn't make that trade I assume they draft Jefferson), Rd 2 in a redraft I am taking Antonio Gibson there. I also really like Jeremy Chinn. Obviously AJ was the wrong pick, but the offensive players around there were very meh aside from a few. Ezra Cleveland is pretty good as well and fits the profile of linemen they are now looking for. To me JK Dobbins is meh. 

 

2019 - Ed Oliver was the right choice. And if we did a re-draft I would consider Brian Burns. The best offensive player selected after our pick was Chris Lindstrom and then a bunch of linemen who had their 5th year option rejected. Obviously the Cody Ford debacle in the 2nd is a problem and that is probably their biggest mistake. However, they were trying to shore up  gaping hole at RT.  

 

2018 - Josh Draft, an argument can be made for DJ Moore over Tremaine.  

 

 

I do get that. And I think that happens when you draft late in rounds..... especially in years where the Quarterbacks don't go. Before we went on the clock on Thursday night the top 4 tackles, top 2 guards and top 6 receivers were all off the board. Corner was the right pick at that point and so long as they took whichever of the ceiling guys they were higher on (I was higher on Booth but obviously injury flags and Gordon, but they were higher on Elam) then I am on board. 

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42 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It's true. While their interior OLine that year was decent with Norwell, Khalil and Turner their tackles were rookie Daryl Williams, Michael Oher who had flamed out in Baltimore and Mike Remmers who has the distinction of being the liability that cost his team two Superbowls (repeating the trick with KC in their loss to Tampa). Their starting wideouts were Ted Ginn Jnr as their #1 and rookie Devin Funchess at their #2. 

 

I should say the Bills are already a lot better at OT and WR than that Panthers team, and better built as an entire roster. But in that run of years after they drafted Cam #1 to the year right after they lost that Superbowl they spent 7 round 1&2 picks on defensive players and only 3 on offensive players (Kelvin Benjamin - bust, Amini Silatolu - bust, and Devin Funchess - JAG). Beane and McDermott were the assistants rather than the decision makers and they have talked a lot about learning the lessons of the Carolina experience, but one should definitely be saying "we have a big, strong, mobile franchise QB... we can go cheap on the perimeter and on the oline" is not a viable strategy. The Bills since they drafted Josh are 5 defensive players and 2 offensive players in the first two rounds (though they did swing that trade for Diggs as well so 5 and 3 if you include that).

It’s obvious they know and prefer defense… just thought it was interesting that their issues at wide receiver and offensive line cost them a SB in 2015 and if the Bills don’t win it next season I’d wager money it was due to not having enough at those two units whether due to injury or not… especially along the offensive line.

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9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You get that feeling because that's how you want to feel about it.

 

First, remember, you are new here.......I am not.   This isn't an extension of BBMB it's a different forum.

 

Second, you don't want to consider that the Bills didn't make decisions that were in the best interest of the organization long term.    That thought bothers you.

 

This draft was used to patch perceived holes at positions they think are easy enough to do that right away.   Beane knows that being honest about that would be stupid because nobody thinks that's how you handle a draft.  But the heart wants what it wants.

  

(...)

 

A lot of the things I have been saying for 15+ years were scoffed at initially and now the league does them and it's openly discussed.   Focus on premium positions in round 1.   Don't draft RB's in round 1.  Even "it's only wrong to take the best QB in round 1 if you are afraid to take another the next year if he's better".........see Kyler Murray a year after Josh Rosen.   

 

I don't wanna get between you guys and your feelings. 

 

But elsewhere, you explained your draft philosophy that the first round is for drafting guys who will earn a $20M second contract if they succeed in the NFL. 

 

A quick glance at Spotrac's contract page shows that those positions are QB, LT, OLB/DE (pass rushers), WR, and yes, sometimes CB.

 

Who, in keeping with your draft philosophy of "only draft $20M second contract guys in the first round", was available that you think the Bills should have picked in the 1st round at Pick #25 (or 23, for that matter)? 

 

What, according to your philosophy, should the Bills have done?

 

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2 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

If this draft is the model for drafting going forward, you are right. As an effort to win a SB, it makes perfect sense to me and I am generally on board with it. I basically agree with New Era. Myself, I was arguing to package 25 and next year's first to go get Jameson Williams because I think he is going to be a special player who would make our offense very hard to stop. But that is a risky strategy, too. On the whole, I won't complain about this one. Don't make chasing the perfect strategy the enemy of the good . . . and prudence is choosing what is wise in the moment. I'm not convinced your strategy is right for this moment.

 

Yeah I think a lot of us wanted them to go big..........the motto coming into this draft was that they didn't have many needs...........so it came down to whether they addressed the low hanging fruit like KC did a couple years ago when they took CEH........or if they went for the longer range, find a star at a premium position kinda' route.  

 

As it turned out, the trade-up for Williams option would have been much cheaper than imagined......but Beane didn't talk to any teams prior to pick #20.......they were laser focused on what they eventually did........drafting for immediate need, regardless of value.

 

Those closing quotes in your post may have their place........but aren't necessarily applicable to a sport that punishes the undisciplined and inconsistent, IMO.

 

Long before McDermott arrived I said it here..........the draft is a process of organization building...........not an annual event to fill needs.

 

Beyond not setting yourself up for longer term success in a situation where you are going to be cap-tight for the foreseeable future..........the OTHER fallacy is just assuming that drafting for need at easier to fill positions will yield better results than taking players at more valued positions.

 

You don't even know if that will be the case in their rookie year..........we saw it in 2016 with the 3 "off the bus starters" draft........ Shaq, Ragnuts and Adolphus.

 

I heard the same arguments then when I described that draft as "uninspired".

 

We all know what happened.......NO starters.

 

But how soon we forget.

 

That's the thing with the draft.........you really can't count on a lot from year one anyway.  

 

It's a trap to assume that you can.   

 

Last year they went with an extremely raw, but big traits Pass Rusher, an over-aged Pass Rusher, then a raw LT traits OT.   On paper that shouldn't have yielded much of an early return.  

 

 Instead, they got two rookie starters who played key roles for them and one can envision them both being Bills for a decade.

 

Maybe Elam and Cook and Bernard all play key roles..........but history also shows that they very well could not.

 

Look at that 2016 draft........Shaq ended up not playing half the season but Lorenzo Alexander more than filled any expectations for him..............Ragnuts missed the whole year but Zach Brown lead the NFL in tackles.   I guess they should have won the Super Bowl.  

 

As it turned out the NEEDS that season were elsewhere.  

 

Needs are a always a moving target in the NFL.

Edited by BADOLBILZ
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56 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't wanna get between you guys and your feelings. 

 

But elsewhere, you explained your draft philosophy that the first round is for drafting guys who will earn a $20M second contract if they succeed in the NFL. 

 

A quick glance at Spotrac's contract page shows that those positions are QB, LT, OLB/DE (pass rushers), WR, and yes, sometimes CB.

 

Who, in keeping with your draft philosophy of "only draft $20M second contract guys in the first round", was available that you think the Bills should have picked in the 1st round at Pick #25 (or 23, for that matter)? 

 

What, according to your philosophy, should the Bills have done?

 

 

Didn't you ask me this question before and I gave you a very detailed, 1,000 word kinda' response so there was no confusion?

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but these are the questions you always ask me and I wouldn't indulge just anyone..........so I think it was you.

 

But while we are at it..........what would YOU have done? :beer:

 

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1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Didn't you ask me this question before and I gave you a very detailed, 1,000 word kinda' response so there was no confusion?

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but these are the questions you always ask me and I wouldn't indulge just anyone..........so I think it was you.

 

But while we are at it..........what would YOU have done? :beer:

 

 

I apologize most sincerely if I missed a careful and thoughtfull 1,000 word kind of response.  I admit the search engine here isn't "all that", but I did bring up your posting history and look carefully for a response to where I previously asked this question before I asked it again.  Then I searched.

 

Clearly I missed your response, which is "me bad", but I did make a good faith effort, so might you be so kind as to link me to this response? (Doesn't matter if it was to me or someone else, though the latter might have kept me from finding it)

 

As far as what I would have done, I don't have a problem with the Bills drafting Kaiir Elam in the first, or even moving up 2 spots to do so.  I think CB is a premium position worthy of a late-first-round pick, and I think it's entirely possible that while Elam filled a need, he was also legitimately someone who the Bills saw as BPA at that position.

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4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Spector has a chance because he is going to be a demon on special teams. Those backup linebacker spots are always about special teams first and foremost. 

 

Oh I agree. I just don't know if Dodson or Matakevich is cut for Spector. I could see one cut for Bernard.

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12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I still feel like their preferred plan is for him to play on the option, ball out and earn the extension. But I do wonder with the need for money to just meet the cap with the 53 that Beane referred to yesterday whether the easiest way to create space isn't to extend Edmunds, lowering that hit. I think the Bills will only do that if they can make the extension team friendly in terms of outs. I think they still like Tremaine but they would rather not be totally tied in for the long term. If he is willing to do a flexible deal where he doesn't get huge guaranteed money beyond the first two years and then the future years guarantee almost one at a time after that I think there is a deal to be done. 


The easiest way to create cap space is to restructure Tre and/or Dion.  That would easily give the Bills enough space to get through the season.

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9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I apologize most sincerely if I missed a careful and thoughtfull 1,000 word kind of response.  I admit the search engine here isn't "all that", but I did bring up your posting history and look carefully for a response to where I previously asked this question before I asked it again.  Then I searched.

 

Clearly I missed your response, which is "me bad", but I did make a good faith effort, so might you be so kind as to link me to this response? (Doesn't matter if it was to me or someone else, though the latter might have kept me from finding it)

 

As far as what I would have done, I don't have a problem with the Bills drafting Kaiir Elam in the first, or even moving up 2 spots to do so.  I think CB is a premium position worthy of a late-first-round pick, and I think it's entirely possible that while Elam filled a need, he was also legitimately someone who the Bills saw as BPA at that position.

 

 

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10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

As far as what I would have done, I don't have a problem with the Bills drafting Kaiir Elam in the first, or even moving up 2 spots to do so. 

 

 

Yeah, sure........but what would you have done?

 

 "I don't have a problem with......" isn't really an answer to that......it's an evasive measure from someone who is so often perturbed by any perceived vagueness. :lol:   

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20 hours ago, NewEra said:

There’s no reason for him to say he’s going all in.  
 

He knows how close this team was last year and he’s being proactive and continuing to improve the team the best he can.  I’d say he’s doing a great job.  If it weren’t for an all time coaching debacle, we may have had ourselves a Lombardi.  It’s all on McD and co now. 

 

 

There is no reason to say it or agree to the suggestion.........but he's pretty determined to squash the notion to the fanbase.

 

Beane is very good at not saying things that compromise his relationship/leverage with players or agents or other teams.

 

But it is a different story with his public perception.

 

The other day he started a thought with "I don't lie".  :lol:

 

That's hysterical..........every other time his lips move it's a form of manipulation of truth.

 

Dude is a true shyster on the mic and as I've said many times..........that was exactly what the Pegula's needed in a GM.........his confidence man persona keeps their hands off the controls.

 

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27 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Yeah, sure........but what would you have done?

 

 "I don't have a problem with......" isn't really an answer to that......it's an evasive measure from someone who is so often perturbed by any perceived vagueness. :lol:   

 

I believe I gave a reasonable answer.  You can disagree with that assessment.

 

You're the one who has a sweeping philosophical disagreement with the draft day decisions, overall strategy, and roster management of the Bills FO.

 

 

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Bernard is the manifestation of McDermott's vision of a 2022 NFL defense.  He's not going to put out a LB that isn't viable in coverage.  LB's not integral to pass rush.  Just my opinion.

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16 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

I feel like part of that is the drafting BPA for need strategy as they shore up the defense. I think the other part about that is when their time has come on the clock, a lot of the defensive players on the board were just better than the offense imo. 

 

2022 - Elam was the right pick over guys like Hall and Watson. 2nd round Cook works. 

 

2021 - The argument can be made that they should have taken Elijah Moore or Javonte Williams. I think they made the right choice in Rousseau. Rd 2, I like Basham more than most, but they should have taken Creed Humphrey. 

 

2020 - Diggs trade rd 1 (If they didn't make that trade I assume they draft Jefferson), Rd 2 in a redraft I am taking Antonio Gibson there. I also really like Jeremy Chinn. Obviously AJ was the wrong pick, but the offensive players around there were very meh aside from a few. Ezra Cleveland is pretty good as well and fits the profile of linemen they are now looking for. To me JK Dobbins is meh. 

 

2019 - Ed Oliver was the right choice. And if we did a re-draft I would consider Brian Burns. The best offensive player selected after our pick was Chris Lindstrom and then a bunch of linemen who had their 5th year option rejected. Obviously the Cody Ford debacle in the 2nd is a problem and that is probably their biggest mistake. However, they were trying to shore up  gaping hole at RT.  

 

2018 - Josh Draft, an argument can be made for DJ Moore over Tremaine.  

 

 

 

2019 DK Metcalf would have been the right choice in hindsight.    He's been a star since day 1.

 

Knowing what teams know today of the value of WR's...........Metcalf and AJ Brown definitely go round 1 and in hindsight Terry McLaurin as well.    The Oliver pick made sense despite being very undersized because it was presumed that he'd quickly turn into an elite interior pass rusher.   He has gradually gone form a solid player to very good one........but still hasn't turned into a finisher.   He may finally become that guy in year 4.    Undersized 3 Techs are not in short supply though so if you take one early you would hope that they produce big.  

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6 hours ago, BarleyNY said:


The easiest way to create cap space is to restructure Tre and/or Dion.  That would easily give the Bills enough space to get through the season.

 

They are both options too. I'd feel safer restructuring Tre even off the ACL than Dion. His struggles in the last year controlling is weight (which started before he had covid) would make me wary. I'd want to retain some flexibility there just in case. 

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One thing that was said to me last night which made me reflect on Bernard was whether actually this might be a second of the tweaks that they are going to give effect to on defense - maybe they want to play more 4-3 base? 

 

We know that tweak one is they want to be able to play more press on the outside. That doesn't mean they are going to play lots of man, they will still primarily be a zone defense but they want to be able to get more aggressive with their corners at the line. Beane admitted himself in his interview on H&J yesterday that they didn't feel comfortable doing that much with Dane and Levi. Their defense has primarily been to press Tre, force the QB to go away from that side and throw the safe completion short to Levi's side where he plays off and then comes up and tackles for a short gain. This now allows them the flexibility to even press on both sides simultaneously in some situations. 

 

Maybe tweak two is they want to play a bit more 4-3?. I think they are still going to be in nickel a lot but I think last year they were 100% in nickel or dime looks for like 14 of the 17 games. Maybe they want to mix that up a bit more in 2022? Edmunds would play MIKE, Milano likely SAM and let Bernard play WILL. If they feel like having upgrades on the Dline will force the ball out more quickly and lessen the need for 5 DBs in coverage maybe that's a route they go. Not as their base defense but as a change up? Just a thought. If that is the case it makes more sense to me that they prioritised a LB over a OL that might be a backup as a rookie. Dunno, just spitballing. But interesting to consider I think. 

 

 

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On 5/3/2022 at 8:14 AM, Dr. Who said:

If this draft is the model for drafting going forward, you are right. As an effort to win a SB, it makes perfect sense to me and I am generally on board with it. I basically agree with New Era. Myself, I was arguing to package 25 and next year's first to go get Jameson Williams because I think he is going to be a special player who would make our offense very hard to stop. But that is a risky strategy, too. On the whole, I won't complain about this one. Don't make chasing the perfect strategy the enemy of the good . . . and prudence is choosing what is wise in the moment. I'm not convinced your strategy is right for this moment.

Very interesting post.

 

As a life long Alabama Fan, I respectfully disagree with the bold, and I'll tell you why.....

 

The 2021 college football season was a strange one. Almost every team (UGA being an obvious exception) had a dropoff in talent. Think about it, Cinn. was actually a playoff team (although they of course were promptly slaughtered). This draft, for lack of a better word, sucked. For example, Alabama had only 7 players drafted. 7 players!!! In 2021 they had 6 players drafted in the first round alone, along with 2 in the second. My point? I think that both Davonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle will have better NFL careers than Williams. Now, obviously this is not an all knowing proclamation. It is just a prediction/opinion from a fan who has seen every play of Smith and Waddle's college careers (and all of JW's in his time in Tuscaloosa). 

 

I was actually hoping that the Bills would trade down to acquire more picks in 2022, and use this draft to pick up receivers and guards (if no tackles were available) but alas; we traded UP for a first round zone corner, proving that we are still the Bills lol.

 

But as @BADOLBILZ says all the time, this is entertainment. I am not going to get crazy over this draft, and tbh, I expected nothing less. 

 

GO BILLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited by Bill from NYC
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