Daniel Jeremiah Mock Draft 2.0 - Bills take Treylon Burks: 3.0 - Bills take Breece Hall

[Warcodered]

44 minutes ago, H2o said:

Let's not forget the Bills were REALLY high on Travis Etienne last year and he very well could have been the pick if Jax didn't take him before us.

I mean maybe at the same time I'm not sure I'd trust any of those draft rumors more than the FA ones that were all wrong.

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

But he isn't the number 1 prospect according to PFF.  They have Kenneth Walker.

 

Anyways, I preferred the first mock when they had the Bills getting Treylon Burks.  With WRs getting ridiculously expensive, it's worth the shot to try and home grow a really good one.

 

Our FA isn't done, Beane still has a little CB magic he's been holding onto.

I have Walker #1 too.  Hall might be a better fit for the bills due to his pass catching ability.  Not sure if Walker can or cannot excel in the pass game since he hadn’t really been asked to very often.  
 

i’d be happy with Burks or any of the top 5 WRs, top 5-6 corners or even top 1-2 IOL.  Prefer not IOL due too positional value, but a beast RG could pay huge dividends for the run and pass game 

[mrags]

8 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Lol….I hate you? You take this too seriously I suppose. Do you. 
 

yeah, we were really hindered last year…..when the OL had their heads up their *****.  When they got their **** together, the run game was just fine.  Our lack of talent @ running back had nothing to do with us losing to the chiefs.  
 

Motor was a better rb than the cam Akers we saw in the playoffs. He was nowhere near 💯….yet they won the super bowl.  
 

The Bucs had a dominant OL, the best qb ever, the best WRs in the league and a monster D……fournette is and was good. He’s better than motor.  They didn’t need him to win the super bowl. 
 

the chiefs had Damian Williams.  Yup.  
 

the pats had Michel.  Jag.

 

the eagles had who?  Mmhmm.

blount, Cj Anderson, just keep going and going.  The backs that win SB are average starting running backs in most cases. Most of those teams had good to great OL

and a star qb…..while RB could be filled By most starting RBs in the league.  
 

sure….we could upgrade motor.  No doubt.  He’s not a great rb.  But he improved a great deal in 2022 and is worthy of being a starter on a team that can’t afford to pay big bucks or waste a 1st rd pick on a RB.  
 

He’s good enough to make you pay when left alone.  He showed that last year when we started to lean on him.  He thrived in the goal line at the end of the year and was scoring TD after TD when given the opportunity.  He was catching balls out of the backfield and making teams pay.  
 

but like you said….we shouldn’t draft a Rb @ 25.  Nice talk.

Man. Just imagine what we could do with an actual good RB.  

For those of you still wondering about the effectiveness out of a 4.65 40 time for a RB. Took me a whole 13 seconds to look it up. 
 

https://medium.com/the-sports-scientist/what-40-yard-dash-times-produce-the-best-running-backs-dd5d35eab471

 

Worst: 4:60–4.69

If a running back runs in the 4.60's statistically they are already at a disadvantage to be a top running back. These running backs typically don’t last in the NFL for that long only averaging 4.6 seasons. This results in them obtaining less yards during their tenure in the NFL. They are also the second worst time in yards per attempt, and in the bottom half of ranking of running backs in the top 10%. There’s a debate that running backs who run in the 4.80’s are worse but since the sample size is too small compared to 4.60–4.69, there’s more confidence that the stats for the 4.60’s are more accurate and closer to the actual result.

[Doc]

It's guaranteed to be CB now.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

Man. Just imagine what we could do with an actual good RB.  

For those of you still wondering about the effectiveness out of a 4.65 40 time for a RB. Took me a whole 13 seconds to look it up. 
 

https://medium.com/the-sports-scientist/what-40-yard-dash-times-produce-the-best-running-backs-dd5d35eab471

 

Worst: 4:60–4.69

If a running back runs in the 4.60's statistically they are already at a disadvantage to be a top running back. These running backs typically don’t last in the NFL for that long only averaging 4.6 seasons. This results in them obtaining less yards during their tenure in the NFL. They are also the second worst time in yards per attempt, and in the bottom half of ranking of running backs in the top 10%. There’s a debate that running backs who run in the 4.80’s are worse but since the sample size is too small compared to 4.60–4.69, there’s more confidence that the stats for the 4.60’s are more accurate and closer to the actual result.

Yeah, a faster rb could help. I agree.  So would a better corner.  A better WR.  Possible stars at premium positions that we can control….rather than a position where you can get a solid starter for 3-5 and will have a Mongo 5th year option that minght even be worth picking up.  
 

So if you’re Beane, what would you do if Breece Hall is available @ 25?  My guess would be draft a CB or WR or trade down (because that’s so easy) and draft Hall in the 2nd….but somehow be able to trade down just far enough where you know that no one else would take him. 

 

You sound like you’re making an argument to take a RB @ 25….. is that the case?

[mrags]

58 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yeah, a faster rb could help. I agree.  So would a better corner.  A better WR.  Possible stars at premium positions that we can control….rather than a position where you can get a solid starter for 3-5 and will have a Mongo 5th year option that minght even be worth picking up.  
 

So if you’re Beane, what would you do if Breece Hall is available @ 25?  My guess would be draft a CB or WR or trade down (because that’s so easy) and draft Hall in the 2nd….but somehow be able to trade down just far enough where you know that no one else would take him. 

 

You sound like you’re making an argument to take a RB @ 25….. is that the case?

IOL or CB is way too much of a need to draft RB at 25. I admit that. WR was but then we signed Crowder and I feel like they will settle for a 3-5rd WR (with this years depth). Davis and Diggs will start on the outside, McKenzie abs Crowder will see a lot in the slot. A 3-5th rd rookie will likely be a true speed guy and will get in situationally. 
 

I would probably draft Zion or Kenyon in the first if they are there and either Elam, Stingley, Booth, Mcduffie aren’t there. If all 6 are gone, there’s a good chance you can get Olave, Dotson, Burks, Williams. 
 

I wouldn’t expect a trade back and pick up extra picks but a trade back up into the 2nd round is much more believable. We’ve shown we are willing to do that in the past. Willing to give up a 1st round pick, or multiple picks in the following year to do so. 
 

Best scenario for me would probably be:

-Williams or Olave in the first

-trade back into early to mid rd 2 if Hall is there and take him there. 
-if you still keep your 57th pick, take the best corner available, or best IOL. Likely McCreary, Woolen, Gordon, Emerson, Rhyan, Smith, Hayes. 

 

they have plenty of mid to late round picks to trade up with. Since they likely won’t make the team anyway. And since we’re in win now mode, next years picks could be a way to make some of that happen. 
 

of course this isn’t Madden and not 100% possible. But there’s ways to move around on draft day. I fully expect Beane to be moving up and down throughout the days. 
 

Edited March 23, 2022 by mrags

[PauleeeWalnuts]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

It's guaranteed to be CB now.

Has to be…after losing Levi and knowing Tre probably won’t be ready until Oct/Nov….they’re running thin at CB

[NewEra]

51 minutes ago, mrags said:

IOL or CB is way too much of a need to draft RB at 25. I admit that. WR was but then we signed Crowder and I feel like they will settle for a 3-5rd WR (with this years depth). Davis and Diggs will start on the outside, McKenzie abs Crowder will see a lot in the slot. A 3-5th rd rookie will likely be a true speed guy and will get in situationally. 
 

I would probably draft Zion or Kenyon in the first if they are there and either Elam, Stingley, Booth, Mcduffie aren’t there. If all 6 are gone, there’s a good chance you can get Olave, Dotson, Burks, Williams. 
 

I wouldn’t expect a trade back and pick up extra picks but a trade back up into the 2nd round is much more believable. We’ve shown we are willing to do that in the past. Willing to give up a 1st round pick, or multiple picks in the following year to do so. 
 

Best scenario for me would probably be:

-Williams or Olave in the first

-trade back into early to mid rd 2 if Hall is there and take him there. 
-if you still keep your 57th pick, take the best corner available, or best IOL. Likely McCreary, Woolen, Gordon, Emerson, Rhyan, Smith, Hayes. 

 

they have plenty of mid to late round picks to trade up with. Since they likely won’t make the team anyway. And since we’re in win now mode, next years picks could be a way to make some of that happen. 
 

of course this isn’t Madden and not 100% possible. But there’s ways to move around on draft day. I fully expect Beane to be moving up and down throughout the days. 
 

Great post.  Agree with all of this except trading up for a RB part.  We’d be in a bad spot at CB2 and RG.   If we can somehow address RG (Bates) and Cb2 (Haden) in free agency, I’d be 💯 down with trading up for a stud like Hall or Walker.  Maybe Beane can make it happen.  

[mrags]

23 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Great post.  Agree with all of this except trading up for a RB part.  We’d be in a bad spot at CB2 and RG.   If we can somehow address RG (Bates) and Cb2 (Haden) in free agency, I’d be 💯 down with trading up for a stud like Hall or Walker.  Maybe Beane can make it happen.  

That all part of it. I don’t expect them to go into the draft with the CBs currently on the roster. 
 

and I will continue to admit that I don’t think a RB in rd1 is a priority. Nor do I think it is with a move up assuming nothing else changes. My arguments are, and will be that we need a game breaking RB. Doesn’t matter where he comes from, or how we get him. Our offense is missing that piece. 
 

I was not interested in CMC because he’s making too much and he’s constantly hurt. But I would take a flyer in Barkley because his price tag is significantly less. I’ve been a fan of trading Edmunds for Barkley. Saving about 5m. Drafting your MLB in the 3-4th rd 

Edited March 23, 2022 by mrags

[NewEra]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

That all part of it. I don’t expect them to go into the draft with the CBs currently on the roster. 
 

and I will continue to admit that I don’t think a RB in rd1 is a priority. Nor do I think it is with a move up assuming nothing else changes. My arguments are, and will be that we need a game breaking RB. Doesn’t matter where he comes from, or how we get him. Our offense is missing that piece. 
 

I was not interested in CMC because he’s making too much and he’s constantly hurt. But I would take a flyer in Barkley because his price tag is significantly less. I’ve been a fan of reading Edmunds for Barkley. Saving about 5m. Drafting your MLB in the 3-4th rd 

That’s where we disagree.  We need to win a super bowl.  And it’s been proven that we don’t NEED a game breaking rb to win a super bowl. We have Josh Allen.  Much lesser QBs have won the super bowl with non game breaking RBs. But Josh Allen NEEDS a game breaking rb?  Nonsense.  We need our coaching staff to not fail in the playoffs….that’s all.

[Warcodered]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

It's guaranteed to be CB now.

I don't see why, we had to be planning on needing to get past Hill twice this season anyway.

[Logic]

One thing I hadn’t considered is that Singletary is on the last year of his rookie deal, and I doubt we’ll re-sign him to a second contract. Too many more important re-signings coming due.

 

Beane DOES like to stay ahead of needs by a year, so a highly drafted running backs isn’t totally out of the question, I guess.

 

I’d still rather get CB, WR, OG in some order this year, ride Motor for 2022, and worry about RB next year…but I could see them addressing it this year instead, I suppose.

[FLFan]

Breece Hall would be a terrible choice.  A “fire Beane moment”. Wrong position, wrong player, wrong era. 

[mrags]

42 minutes ago, NewEra said:

That’s where we disagree.  We need to win a super bowl.  And it’s been proven that we don’t NEED a game breaking rb to win a super bowl. We have Josh Allen.  Much lesser QBs have won the super bowl with non game breaking RBs. But Josh Allen NEEDS a game breaking rb?  Nonsense.  We need our coaching staff to not fail in the playoffs….that’s all.

I won’t disagree that we “were” close to winning a SB. Our offense may take a step forward this year or may take a step back. Could be down a RG. Could be down the safety net that Beasley brought for Josh. Could be down the veteran leadership that Sanders brought. I personally believe we’ve upgraded at WR but remains to be seen. Cole was a first down machine. 
 

and I agree that the coaching cost us the game against the chiefs.  It at the same time I don’t know if I believe McDermott will learn from it. He hasn’t shown me that yet. He constantly makes bad game time decisions imo. 
 

but if the Offense and Allen had a RB to lean on, they may have won another game or 2 throughout the year. Like the 50mph wind game against Pats. Or the Steelers game. Or the Jags game. Giving us home field in the playoffs and less of a worry about the Chiefs in the divisional game. 
 

regardless what happens, they can’t be overly happy about the production of their backfield. If they were, they wouldn’t keep drafting 3rd rounders. They wouldn’t keep picking up FAs like Breida, Johnson, Mckissic. 

[mrags]

49 minutes ago, Logic said:

One thing I hadn’t considered is that Singletary is on the last year of his rookie deal, and I doubt we’ll re-sign him to a second contract. Too many more important re-signings coming due.

 

Beane DOES like to stay ahead of needs by a year, so a highly drafted running backs isn’t totally out of the question, I guess.

 

I’d still rather get CB, WR, OG in some order this year, ride Motor for 2022, and worry about RB next year…but I could see them addressing it this year instead, I suppose.

I’d expect him to get on top of the WR room before the RB room if that was the case. But they would have to be there to make it worth it for them. 

the only ones that have a shot at making it to us at 25 and only ones worthy of picking there are:

Burks

Williams

Olave

Dotson 

 

After that you wait until the 2nd or 3rd round and get a guy like:

Watson

Pickens

Pierce

Metchie

 

After that I think to wait until rd 4-5 and try for:

Thornton

Phillips

Gray

 

I am not a fan at all of Austin III

 

[Norcalbillsfan]

50 minutes ago, Logic said:

One thing I hadn’t considered is that Singletary is on the last year of his rookie deal, and I doubt we’ll re-sign him to a second contract. Too many more important re-signings coming due.

 

Beane DOES like to stay ahead of needs by a year, so a highly drafted running backs isn’t totally out of the question, I guess.

 

I’d still rather get CB, WR, OG in some order this year, ride Motor for 2022, and worry about RB next year…but I could see them addressing it this year instead, I suppose.

I do think bills go RB at some point. I think the only way beane goes Hall is if the value at cb,wr, and ol are low at 25. But chances are there should be value at those positions at 25.

[NewEra]

17 minutes ago, mrags said:

I won’t disagree that we “were” close to winning a SB. Our offense may take a step forward this year or may take a step back. Could be down a RG. Could be down the safety net that Beasley brought for Josh. Could be down the veteran leadership that Sanders brought. I personally believe we’ve upgraded at WR but remains to be seen. Cole was a first down machine. 
 

and I agree that the coaching cost us the game against the chiefs.  It at the same time I don’t know if I believe McDermott will learn from it. He hasn’t shown me that yet. He constantly makes bad game time decisions imo. 
 

but if the Offense and Allen had a RB to lean on, they may have won another game or 2 throughout the year. Like the 50mph wind game against Pats. Or the Steelers game. Or the Jags game. Giving us home field in the playoffs and less of a worry about the Chiefs in the divisional game. 
 

regardless what happens, they can’t be overly happy about the production of their backfield. If they were, they wouldn’t keep drafting 3rd rounders. They wouldn’t keep picking up FAs like Breida, Johnson, Mckissic. 

I hear ya….but Breece hall doesn’t make a difference in the jags game or the 50Mph wind game.  It’s the OL that lost us those games 💯.  There were no holes.  No holes for the majority of the 1st half of the season.  Look at what motor did down the stretch.
 

Upgrade the OL….and the jags and pats game don’t happen.  The OL is was lost the super bowl for the bengals.  And look at the nfc super bowl prospects- rams- beast pass rush. Tampa- beast pass rush.  Niners- beast pass rush.  Packers solid pass rush.  Vikings- beast pass rush.  
 

OL >>>>>>>> RB.  
 

agree to disagree 

[mrags]

26 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I hear ya….but Breece hall doesn’t make a difference in the jags game or the 50Mph wind game.  It’s the OL that lost us those games 💯.  There were no holes.  No holes for the majority of the 1st half of the season.  Look at what motor did down the stretch.
 

Upgrade the OL….and the jags and pats game don’t happen.  The OL is was lost the super bowl for the bengals.  And look at the nfc super bowl prospects- rams- beast pass rush. Tampa- beast pass rush.  Niners- beast pass rush.  Packers solid pass rush.  Vikings- beast pass rush.  
 

OL >>>>>>>> RB.  
 

agree to disagree 

I actually agree with you about OL. And even assuming we don’t get Bates back I still believe we’ve upgraded at OL this off-season. Saffold is a huge upgrade for us. Yes we need a RG. And yes we need depth. But that could potentially be found in the 2-4th rounds. Williams was terrible at RG. And you are correct that down the stretch out line got better. Maybe that was Bates. Or maybe that was Brown playing better and being more comfortable. Maybe it was the consistency of all 5 playing together for the first time all year. 
 

there’s plenty of what if’s. End of the day we lost a chance at the SB because the coaching of McDermott imo. But that doesn’t mean every season will be the same. 
 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

One thing I hadn’t considered is that Singletary is on the last year of his rookie deal, and I doubt we’ll re-sign him to a second contract. Too many more important re-signings coming due.

 

Beane DOES like to stay ahead of needs by a year, so a highly drafted running backs isn’t totally out of the question, I guess.

 

I’d still rather get CB, WR, OG in some order this year, ride Motor for 2022, and worry about RB next year…but I could see them addressing it this year instead, I suppose.

I agree with you, that Singletary is replaceable.  And to stay ahead of the game they should get a replacement now.  But Singletary was a 3rd round pick and I don't think they need to invest more than that.  They have WR, CB, IOL, then RB.  If someone is there at Rd 3 or 4, should be a consideration.

[mrags]

4 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I agree with you, that Singletary is replaceable.  And to stay ahead of the game they should get a replacement now.  But Singletary was a 3rd round pick and I don't think they need to invest more than that.  They have WR, CB, IOL, then RB.  If someone is there at Rd 3 or 4, should be a consideration.

That’s completely understandable by almost everyone here. The bigger argument is…. Take the 4-5th best CB, 4-5th best WR, 2-4th best OL, or the 1-2nd best RB. Once you hit a drop off in any of those positions you might as well just wait another round or 2. Maximize your pick where you have it.