Is it worth seeing if Antonio Williams should get a shot?

[Logic]

On 12/7/2021 at 7:26 PM, ClemsonBills said:

One thing this regime has proven is they are sub par talent evaluators 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

20 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

 I'd spend the first 3 picks on OL. 

 

 

This isn't really how you solve a "now" problem at a positional area that is known to take a long time to develop like offensive line.

 

See how much drafting two promising young pass rushers in round 1 and 2 has helped the Bills immediate fortunes in that area.   Not much.  Pass rusher is a long term play.

 

You address pressing issues like this in free agency or even via trade.   Pro personnel moves.

 

Fortunately,  guard is a position that is usually fairly well stocked in UFA.

 

Spend the $10M-$15M per on a very good guard.............then save your premium picks for players at positions who are going to be commanding $25M-$30M per year at the end of their rookie deals.    

 

That's how you fill needs and win at the salary cap game.

[JoPoy88]

Does Antonio come with a new set of 5 offensive linemen? If so yes get him up there.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

With the caveat that you gotta take a great player if he's there, I think they should go as follows:

1 - C/G

2 - RB (Mixon type or one who is a legit good receiver to give Allen a guy he can have faith in)

3 - DT (not expecting much in the way of pass rush in the third round, but a monster guy who can hold the point of attack

4 - G or CB (whoever is the better prospect)

5 - G or CB (whoever is the better prospect, again)

6 - S

6 - LB

7 - WR 

7 - G

 

 

 

That's a recipe for a coach-killing Reggie Ragland & Cody Ford kinda' yield.

 

You don't draft low ceiling players at lesser positions early to fill immediate needs. 

 

And this year ESPECIALLY..........center, RB and DT are all light on higher quality talent in the rounds you put them in.

 

You'd be lucky to get a Devin Singletary quality RB in round 2 in this draft.........it's not a great class.........but even if it were a good one it's still a waste of equity for that position.

 

The Bills need to address their immediate interior OL issues in UFA or via trade.

 

The OT, WR, CB classes look pretty good which is always good when premium talent positions like that are well stocked.    Gotta' get them when they are hot.

 

Might be the deepest TE class in a long time and pass rusher is pretty deep again.

 

All the woe we feel about the interior OL pales in comparison to being light at premium positions. 

 

 

[dave mcbride]

39 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That's a recipe for a coach-killing Reggie Ragland & Cody Ford kinda' yield.

 

You don't draft low ceiling players at lesser positions early to fill immediate needs. 

 

And this year ESPECIALLY..........center, RB and DT are all light on higher quality talent in the rounds you put them in.

 

You'd be lucky to get a Devin Singletary quality RB in round 2 in this draft.........it's not a great class.........but even if it were a good one it's still a waste of equity for that position.

 

The Bills need to address their immediate interior OL issues in UFA or via trade.

 

The OT, WR, CB classes look pretty good which is always good when premium talent positions like that are well stocked.    Gotta' get them when they are hot.

 

Might be the deepest TE class in a long time and pass rusher is pretty deep again.

 

All the woe we feel about the interior OL pales in comparison to being light at premium positions. 

 

 

I will fully admit that I don't know about the draftee talent level of the various positions I've highlighted. But I have had it with scrap heap FA pickups for interior o-line. It simply has to get better. It will kill the Bills over time, just like what has happened to Pittsburgh's line in the last couple of years has defanged their offense. Also, yes, Ford sucks, but HE WAS DRAFTED AS A TACKLE. If he was a really good tackle, he would have gone higher. There were real doubts about his game before that draft, and the Bills unfortunately were not one of the doubters. If a Quentin Nelson is available, you take him. I'm not saying there is a guy like that available (he's unique), of course. But the middle-of-the-o-line issue has to end.  If a Ryan Kelly or a Travis Frederick or a Zack Martin is there in the 20s? Personally, I'd take him. Again, though, I have no idea how good any of these guys coming out are, and I'm certainly not advocating overdrafting low ceiling players. I just don't know the talent pool. 

Edited December 9, 2021 by dave mcbride

[LABILLBACKER]

38 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That's a recipe for a coach-killing Reggie Ragland & Cody Ford kinda' yield.

 

You don't draft low ceiling players at lesser positions early to fill immediate needs. 

 

And this year ESPECIALLY..........center, RB and DT are all light on higher quality talent in the rounds you put them in.

 

You'd be lucky to get a Devin Singletary quality RB in round 2 in this draft.........it's not a great class.........but even if it were a good one it's still a waste of equity for that position.

 

The Bills need to address their immediate interior OL issues in UFA or via trade.

 

The OT, WR, CB classes look pretty good which is always good when premium talent positions like that are well stocked.    Gotta' get them when they are hot.

 

Might be the deepest TE class in a long time and pass rusher is pretty deep again.

 

All the woe we feel about the interior OL pales in comparison to being light at premium positions. 

 

 

We don't have the luxury to wait 5 years when Josh is 30 to slowly develop Olineman. The Chargers literally turned their awful OL around in 1 off season. Sorry BAD, not buying it.

[BADOLBILZ]

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I will fully admit that I don't know about the draftee talent level of the various positions I've highlighted. But I have had it with scrap heap pickups for interior o-line. It simply has to get better. It will kill the Bills over time, just like what has happened to Pittsburgh in the last couple of years has defanged their offense. Also, yes, Ford sucks, but HE WAS DRAFTED AS A TACKLE. If he was a really good tackle, he would have gone higher. There were real doubts about his game before that draft, and the Bills unfortunately were not one of the doubters. If a Quentin Nelson is available, you take him. I'm not saying there is a guy like that available (he's unique), of course. But the middle-of-the-o-line issue has to end.  If a Ryan Kelly or a Travis Frederick or a Zack Martin is there in the 20s? Personally, I'd take him. Again, though, I have no idea how good any of these guys coming out are.  

 

 

You don't fundamentally alter sound draft strategy to fill needs.

 

They are in this position because Beane did that in 2019 by drafting Oliver, Ford and Singletary for need.   You could make an argument at the time that Oliver was the best player on the board and a pass rusher.   Ford and Singletary were both the purest form of drafting for immediate need over BPA at more valuable positions.

 

They literally drafted Cody Ford to fill a perceived need and in the process undermined the smart work they did in finding value late the previous year in Wyatt Teller.

 

That was an unfortunate NUCLEAR type of accident.

 

But it underscores my point.........you treat the draft as a big picture solution.

 

Finding interior OL help should not be a long term problem.

 

By having QB/LT/CB1/WR1 and possibly Pass Rusher 1 all addressed with draft picks and reasonable contracts they have positioned themselves to be able to justify paying a Brandon Scherff or Laken Tomlinson type in UFA to give them a big matchup winner inside.   And those players "should" be available because their teams haven't filled their premium needs inexpensively like the Bills and will have a hard time justifying paying interior OL with their bigger needs.

 

[ClemsonBills]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

 

So 1 for how many failures? Name another stud drafted by Beane.

[BADOLBILZ]

42 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We don't have the luxury to wait 5 years when Josh is 30 to slowly develop Olineman. The Chargers literally turned their awful OL around in 1 off season. Sorry BAD, not buying it.

 

What are you talking about?

 

I'm talking about adding an immediate stud to the interior OL..........not drafting one in the top 3 rounds and waiting for them to develop like most OL do.

 

And LAC drafted a stud offensive tackle in round 1.    Otherwise didn't draft another OL until round 5.

 

No idea what your rationale is here.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 9, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[Logic]

7 minutes ago, ClemsonBills said:

So 1 for how many failures? Name another stud drafted by Beane.

Tremaine Edmunds is a two-time Pro Bowler at age 23.

Ed Oliver is wreaking havoc lately.

Taron Johnson is one of the top nickel corners in the league.

Dawson Knox is tied for the most touchdown receptions among tight ends in the league this year.

Spencer Brown looks like he's going to be very good at right tackle.

Gabriel Davis was highly productive for a 4th round rookie and looks to be a future starter.

Levi Wallace is a more than capable starter at corner who they brought in via UDFA.

The Bills have made the playoffs 3 out of Beane's 4 years here and will, in all likelihood, do so again this season. They went 13-3 last year and made the AFC Title because Beane and his staff built a good roster, which involves, ya know....evaluating talent.

We all see what we want to see, and you're choosing to see the negative. That's okay. I'm more of a "glass half full" kind of guy. To each their own.


 

[ClemsonBills]

37 minutes ago, Logic said:

Tremaine Edmunds is a two-time Pro Bowler at age 23.

Ed Oliver is wreaking havoc lately.

Taron Johnson is one of the top nickel corners in the league.

Dawson Knox is tied for the most touchdown receptions among tight ends in the league this year.

Spencer Brown looks like he's going to be very good at right tackle.

Gabriel Davis was highly productive for a 4th round rookie and looks to be a future starter.

Levi Wallace is a more than capable starter at corner who they brought in via UDFA.

The Bills have made the playoffs 3 out of Beane's 4 years here and will, in all likelihood, do so again this season. They went 13-3 last year and made the AFC Title because Beane and his staff built a good roster, which involves, ya know....evaluating talent.

We all see what we want to see, and you're choosing to see the negative. That's okay. I'm more of a "glass half full" kind of guy. To each their own.


 

I am also a glass half full. Always have been. But they have made mistakes and choose to be stubborn rather than try something new. What other reason do you have as to why Williams hasn’t played?

[Logic]

14 minutes ago, ClemsonBills said:

I am also a glass half full. Always have been. But they have made mistakes and choose to be stubborn rather than try something new. What other reason do you have as to why Williams hasn’t played?

I don't really have a horse in the "play Antonio Williams" race. I'll only say that coaches get to see players practice, and are privy to said players' knowledge of the playbook and other factors.

Perhaps Williams is bad at pass blocking. Perhaps he simply doesn't look as good in practice as the backs that have been active. Perhaps neither thing is true and Williams is actually killing it in practice and the Bills are fools for not playing him.

Personally, I don't feel that "running backs aren't good enough" is the main reason our running game stinks. I'd tend to look more in the direction of our offensive line personnel not being good enough, our offensive line coach needing to be replaced, and/or our offensive coordinator not putting together a very good running game. I can't help but feel that with better blocking and scheme adjustments, all three of Moss, Singletary, and Breida could be productive. Heck, all three HAVE been productive when good blocking and scheming existed in the past.

Still, all of that said, I have no problem with them giving Williams a shot one of these weeks. The fact that they haven't done so is not necessarily an indictment on our front office's ability to evaluate talent, however. 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You don't fundamentally alter sound draft strategy to fill needs.

 

They are in this position because Beane did that in 2019 by drafting Oliver, Ford and Singletary for need.   You could make an argument at the time that Oliver was the best player on the board and a pass rusher.   Ford and Singletary were both the purest form of drafting for immediate need over BPA at more valuable positions.

 

They literally drafted Cody Ford to fill a perceived need and in the process undermined the smart work they did in finding value late the previous year in Wyatt Teller.

 

That was an unfortunate NUCLEAR type of accident.

 

But it underscores my point.........you treat the draft as a big picture solution.

 

Finding interior OL help should not be a long term problem.

 

By having QB/LT/CB1/WR1 and possibly Pass Rusher 1 all addressed with draft picks and reasonable contracts they have positioned themselves to be able to justify paying a Brandon Scherff or Laken Tomlinson type in UFA to give them a big matchup winner inside.   And those players "should" be available because their teams haven't filled their premium needs inexpensively like the Bills and will have a hard time justifying paying interior OL with their bigger needs.

 

Don't disagree with any of that, although if there's a true blue chip interior lineman who you think could help your quarter-of-a-billion-dollar QB, I'm not opposed to that at all. That said, I truly have no idea what the talent out there is like. I'm not advocating drafting a guy for need; just looking for a stud at guard center that you can build the interior of the line around. Maybe there aren't any.

 

I mean, Luck was getting KILLED because of terrible o-line play, and Indy got Nelson and Kelly. Luck decided to retire of course, but they would have helped him immensely if he stayed. As it turns out, they helped Rivers a ton last year and have made Wentz look like a decent qb again after a terrible year in Philly.

Edited December 9, 2021 by dave mcbride

[BADOLBILZ]

41 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Don't disagree with any of that, although if there's a true blue chip interior lineman who you think could help your quarter-of-a-billion-dollar QB, I'm not opposed to that at all. That said, I truly have no idea what the talent out there is like. I'm not advocating drafting a guy for need; just looking for a stud at guard center that you can build the interior of the line around. Maybe there aren't any.

 

I mean, Luck was getting KILLED because of terrible o-line play, and Indy got Nelson and Kelly. Luck decided to retire of course, but they would have helped him immensely if he stayed. As it turns out, they helped Rivers a ton last year and have made Wentz look like a decent qb again after a terrible year in Philly.

 

 

1.  If you are comfortable drafting an interior OL in round 1 you are either an idiot GM with brassy balls or you better be damn good at stealing players at key positions in the draft.

 

2.  The Colts have won no playoff games since drafting Nelson (1 pick before Josh Allen, might add).    They also can look forward to setting the market(by A LOT) for Quenton Nelson at around $25M per year this offseason or letting their team leader go into his walk year.   And also not having a second round pick for the right to pay Carson Wentz $28M next season.    Oh, and their former #1 overall draft pick LT is also a FA they might want to get done so that Wentz doesn't get snapped in half next season.    Having the highest draft pedigree OL in football is one way to do it........but don't see it as a great strategy, IMO. 

[BillsVet]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That's a recipe for a coach-killing Reggie Ragland & Cody Ford kinda' yield.

 

You don't draft low ceiling players at lesser positions early to fill immediate needs. 

 

And this year ESPECIALLY..........center, RB and DT are all light on higher quality talent in the rounds you put them in.

 

You'd be lucky to get a Devin Singletary quality RB in round 2 in this draft.........it's not a great class.........but even if it were a good one it's still a waste of equity for that position.

 

The Bills need to address their immediate interior OL issues in UFA or via trade.

 

The OT, WR, CB classes look pretty good which is always good when premium talent positions like that are well stocked.    Gotta' get them when they are hot.

 

Might be the deepest TE class in a long time and pass rusher is pretty deep again.

 

All the woe we feel about the interior OL pales in comparison to being light at premium positions. 

 

 

 

With the talent on offense available in the draft, does McD go secondary in the first round and LB in the second or vice-versa?

 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Everyone keeps saying it won’t matter because of the Oline. Well then what’s to lose by trying it? You are basically saying the guys we have playing now can’t do anything because of the line? So you aren’t risking losing anything by trying him. Try Williams and see what happens. I actually think the RBs are more responsible then people realize. Give the kid a shot. We are nowhere without him. There’s nothing to lose. Maybe he exposes an issue and succeeds. Maybe it’s 50/50 RBs Oline. Only 1 way to find out.

[Alphadawg7]

Honestly, our RB's are not as big of a problem as our run blocking an scheme are.  That being said, Ive lost enthusiasm with Moss, he missed big runs multiple times recently where instead of breaking one way where he has an obvious big gains, he cuts back into the wall of defenders.  I don't think Moss has the vision that Devin has, who I have frequently turn what looks to be losses or short gains into nice positive plays or big gains.  

 

So, I would be fine kicking the tires on either AW or Wade as an active RB over Moss.  See if they can spark anything.  That being said, I would say its probably not likely and even if they did get a shot, expectations should be kept in check because agains, our OL has not been good at all in opening lanes and holes.  

 

Better move to me:  Fire Bobby Johnson now.  Get someone in there to change things up and get a spark.  I am not a "Fire Em" guy during the season by any means unless absolutely necessary.  I feel like Bobby has just dont a very poor job with our OL, and I know part of that is on Daboll too who I think is on a host seat over the rest of the season.  I dont expect Daboll to get fired during the season, but if he doesn't get a HC job next year, then I think his job here could still be in jeopardy if the offense doesn't bounce back to close this season out.

[JoshAllin]

So you guys are just going to throw in a brand spanking new RB in with Allen in an important bucs game where he's going to rely more on the passing game, pass blocking and familiarity? Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen

 

Just ride with breida and devin for the rest of the season. Idk what moss brings with those two backs there and a poor OL

Edited December 9, 2021 by motorj

[BADOLBILZ]

27 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Maybe it’s 50/50 RBs Oline. 

 

The first step is understanding that this is not going to be the case.

 

Can a different RB help a little?   Sure.   We've seen instances where the Bills RB's have made bad decisions and mistakes with their assignments.

 

But it's not anything close to 50/50.  

 

Nobody is running for 270 yards with a bunch of OL they just picked up off the street..............TN just did it a week ago against the Patriots with 2 veteran street free agent RB's.

 

It's at least 90% about the blocking.

 

The Bills best hope is that they get back to full health at OL and they make adjustments.    Like, as Eric Wood has suggested,  going to more inside zone.

 

But giving Williams some more snaps at the expense of Moss?   Why not.   Moss has been lousy. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

4 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The first step is understanding that this is not going to be the case.

 

Can a different RB help a little?   Sure.   We've seen instances where the Bills RB's have made bad decisions and mistakes with their assignments.

 

But it's not anything close to 50/50.  

 

Nobody is running for 270 yards with a bunch of OL they just picked up off the street..............TN just did it a week ago against the Patriots with 2 veteran street free agent RB's.

 

It's at least 90% about the blocking.

 

The Bills best hope is that they get back to full health at OL and they make adjustments.    Like, as Eric Wood has suggested,  going to more inside zone.

 

But giving Williams some more snaps at the expense of Moss?   Why not.   Moss has been lousy. 

I honest to god wouldn’t mind if they cut Moss today. He sucks. He slow and brings absolutely nothing to the table at this point