Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 20 minutes ago, Draconator said: You evil person you Excel is only the lapping water of the Deep Pool of my Evil Powers here....Now I get back to trying to create a respectable GDT 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 8:28 AM, YoloinOhio said: Its perfect Buffalo vs. Everybody, Baby!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nucci Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 On 12/2/2021 at 6:36 PM, YoloinOhio said: he's right 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlimShady'sSpaceForce Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Buffalo vs. Everybody, Baby!!!! come on man!!!! I can’t keep up with the GOTW pinned threads!!! 😆 😆 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Dane Jackson is going to do well against this dink and dunk team, I think. Going to be interesting because many believe the Bills will roll extra coverage over to help him out. I don't think that is how they are going to play it. I think they play their game the way they always do and let the kid take his lumps. Really don't believe he'll fail to impress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, Rockinon said: Dane Jackson is going to do well against this dink and dunk team, I think. Going to be interesting because many believe the Bills will roll extra coverage over to help him out. I don't think that is how they are going to play it. I think they play their game the way they always do and let the kid take his lumps. Really don't believe he'll fail to impress. It's not for nothing IMO that Poyer mentioned several times them needing to trust, and learning to trust, Dane. However, Frazier hesitates to make adjustments that haven't been practiced during the week, so I hope that he has a Plan installed in case the kid does need some help. 24 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said: come on man!!!! I can’t keep up with the GOTW pinned threads!!! Cope. When we have several members in a thread lobbying for a visiting team fan to be banned and another guy implying that the thread has become a sewer, it's time to try something new. I'm not afraid to make in-game adjustments here (and Stand the Roast if they suck). I can only hope that 1) Ed Oliver really brings it on Monday nite - he has openly talked about how he plays better in front of family. We need him to Bring It full-time 2) Leslie Frazier has a "plan B" in case his original plan isn't working - since he seems reluctant to make in-game adjustments 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said: It's not for nothing IMO that Poyer mentioned several times them needing to trust, and learning to trust, Dane. However, Frazier hesitates to make adjustments that haven't been practiced during the week, so I hope that he has a Plan installed in case the kid does need some help. Yeah, I believe Hyde and Poyer's experience will help the kid out. The key for all of those guys is communication. Dane is lucky to be in a situation with so many veterans surrounding him. I'm sure they have a plan and the kid will be all right. Certainly not pro bowl level, but at least hold his own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said: What is Turnover % mean, is that the % of drives your opponent has that they turn the ball over? Net giveaways/takeaways would be helpful I added turnovers per game Per PFR, turnover % is "percentage of drives ending in an opponents offensive turnover" 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaaadThingsMan Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 This is the most important game the Bills will play.......this week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Love the excel spreadsheet. Someone mentioned that special teams will be huge in this game. True. So will turnovers. Both of these teams are very opportunistic with turnovers. Going to be interesting to see who jumps out with a lead, because who ever is behind, is most likely to make mistakes. Weather will be huge too. Best case, scenario is seeing Mac Jones trying to catch up with his arm, in the rain and snow, against the best pass defense in the league. Oh, that would would be sweet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugar High JA17 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Lets Go Billetes de Búfalo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: So I don't have a cool graphic, but I did some research for actual per-game defensive parameters DEFENSE: Current NFL Per Game Ranking Beloved Buffalo Bills Patriots****** PPG against 2nd (16.5 ppg) 1st (15.8 ppg) YPG against 1st (275.2) 4th (316.7) Pass NY/A against 1st 3rd Rush Y/A against 1st 23rd Turnover % 19.1% (2.27 per game) 19.4% (2.08 per game) Penalties/Game 7th 7th Penalty YPG 23rd 23rd I'd be happy to add rank for any metric anyone is interested in. Just ask.... Data are from Pro-Football Reference, converted to per-game and ranked by Yours Truly using Excel Edit: added actual # of turnovers per game (tied at 25 total but Pats played 1 more game) Turnover % per PFR is "percentage of drives ending in an opponents offensive turnover" OFFENSE: Current NFL Per Game Ranking Beloved Buffalo Bills Patriots****** PPG scored 2 7 YPG 5 14 Pass NY/A 8 (6.9) 10 (6.9) Rush Y/A 6 (4.6) 20 (4.1) Turnover % 12.5 (1.45 per game) 11.8 (1.25 per game) Penalties/Game 27 (7.2) 7 (5.6) Penalty YPG 24 (63) 14 (52) As on my earlier Defense, I'd be happy to add rank or info for any metric anyone is interested in. Just ask.... Data are from Pro-Football Reference, converted to per-game and ranked by Yours Truly using Excel Turnover % per PFR is "percentage of drives ending in an opponents offensive turnover" @Jauronimo Both teams have 25 takeaways on defense. Bills have 16 give-aways on Offense; Pats have 15 give-aways on Offense. So turnover differential is 9 for the Bills and 10 for the Pats, or 0.82/game for the Bills vs. 0.83/game for the Pats. Assuming my math is correct. I'm not sure how turnovers on ST are listed. I would guess they are listed on Offense for punts and for kickoffs, and on Defense for punt receiving and kickoff receiving, but I'm unsure. Anyone? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 22 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: Coming into this game there is a lot of hyperbole in the media about how bad the Bills run the football and defend against the run........and how great the Pats run it and play defense. The numbers don't really support these positions. This is exactly correct. On offense, Bills actually are 6th in the league at rush YPA with 4.6 YPA and Pats 20th in the league with 4.1 YPA. On defense, Bills are 1st in the league at 3.9 rush YPA given up, and Pats are 23rd in the league with 4.5 rush YPA given up. There is also some airplay to how great the Pats are on taking away the ball, and how bad the Bills are at giving it away. But on a total basis, it's actually one freakin' turnover different, and on a per-game basis it's a fractional difference (Bills 1.45 TO/g on offense, Pats 1.25 TO/g). For turnovers, on a per-drive basis Bills 12.5%, Pats 11.8% on offense and Bills 19.0%, Pats 19.4% on defense. Now worse is worse, but over an 11 or 12 game sample that may actually not be statistically significant (where's @billsfan1959?) The BIG difference from what I've seen, that may be significant, is penalties, especially on offense. Both teams 7th for penalties per game on defense, and 22 or 23 for penalty yards per game on defense. But on offense, the Bills are significantly worse - 27th in the league for penalties per game and 24th for penalty yards per game. The Patriots are 7th for penalties per game, and 14th for penalty yards per game. The numbers on offense are 7.2 pen/G vs 5.6, and 63 yds vs 52 yds. I SMDH about the Bills and penalties, because McDermott preaches process, process, process and discipline, discipline, discipline and yet - the results on the field are not what one would like. Anyone got a good source to break down penalties per game by type and position group? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Success Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Personally, I have re-set this game. It's not make or break. It's a setback if we lose, but we play them again in a few weeks. And we played better in their house last year than ours - much better. And all WE have to do is beat them once. Right now, they need to beat us twice, if they want to win the division. I also like our chances against the Bucs better than I like their chances against the Colts, who seem built to beat a team like the Pats. It's a big regular season game. But life, and the season, goes on if we don't prevail in this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Please just shut down the inevitable WR pass trick play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said: Please just shut down the inevitable WR pass trick play. ? theirs or ours? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: This is exactly correct. On offense, Bills actually are 6th in the league at rush YPA with 4.6 YPA and Pats 20th in the league with 4.1 YPA. On defense, Bills are 1st in the league at 3.9 rush YPA given up, and Pats are 23rd in the league with 4.5 rush YPA given up. There is also some airplay to how great the Pats are on taking away the ball, and how bad the Bills are at giving it away. But on a total basis, it's actually one freakin' turnover different, and on a per-game basis it's a fractional difference (Bills 1.45 TO/g on offense, Pats 1.25 TO/g). For turnovers, on a per-drive basis Bills 12.5%, Pats 11.8% on offense and Bills 19.0%, Pats 19.4% on defense. Now worse is worse, but over an 11 or 12 game sample that may actually not be statistically significant (where's @billsfan1959?) The BIG difference from what I've seen, that may be significant, is penalties, especially on offense. Both teams 7th for penalties per game on defense, and 22 or 23 for penalty yards per game on defense. But on offense, the Bills are significantly worse - 27th in the league for penalties per game and 24th for penalty yards per game. The Patriots are 7th for penalties per game, and 14th for penalty yards per game. The numbers on offense are 7.2 pen/G vs 5.6, and 63 yds vs 52 yds. I SMDH about the Bills and penalties, because McDermott preaches process, process, process and discipline, discipline, discipline and yet - the results on the field are not what one would like. Anyone got a good source to break down penalties per game by type and position group? 2021 NFL Linemen Penalties | Pro-Football-Reference.com 2021 NFL Penalty Data | Pro-Football-Reference.com Edited December 4, 2021 by Hapless Bills Fan added link provided in PM by author Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sammy Watkins' Rib Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: ? theirs or ours? Theirs. They seem to use one every other game. We only seem to use it once a year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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