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Good Night / Bad Night - Pre-season game 2


GunnerBill

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I like that Gilliam looks like a hybrid between a RB and a FB. He's got a little speed and agility to him. Wonder if he could make Matt Breida expendable and free up a spot on the 53 for both Stevenson and Kumrowe. 

6 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

I guess Kumerow's toe tap at the sideline wasn't good enough and makes the bad night list.

 

His two drops were pretty big. Would like to see him get a little more separation or use his large frame better. Up and down night for him. I think he makes the roster though.

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3 hours ago, ganesh said:

No mention of the three knee injuries in the bad night. It included Stevenson 

 

Kumerow is a mismatch with his speed and size.  He is definitely making this roster 

 

Kumerow may be a mismatch, but he needs to get open and catch 'em.  That was his problem in the regular season in GB - he would disappear, and when he was targeted most (21 targets in 2019) his catch % was low (57%).

 

Still the Bills have good WR coaching so I expect they will work with him and he seems to have that "growth mindset"

 

Thought Stevenson was a foot/ankle?  He was seen wearing a walking boot later?

 

 

19 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

I guess Kumerow's toe tap at the sideline wasn't good enough and makes the bad night list.

 

His toe tap on the sideline was great, and so was that TD reception, but the 2 drops were bad.   I guess it's a matter of perception whether the good outweighs the bad.

 

 

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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Here we go... my take on who hurt themselves and who helped themselves in our beatdown of the Bears:

 

Good Night for...

 

Jacob Hollister - Dawson Knox remains atop of the depth chart and has started both pre-season games but he had another drop today and Job Hollister caught 3 for 53 and a 2 point conversion. He isn't the athletic freak that Knox is but he has looked like a solid addition who knows his role and has safe hands. I'm not sure the staff sees Tight End as a live "competition" but I think you are going to see both get plenty of opportunities when the regular season starts.

 

I'm not sure the staff sees TE as a competition either, but I think they should.  But as I said elsewhere for Kumerow, hopefully the "growth mindset" kicks in and Knox realizes he has more work to do.

 

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Bad Night for...

 

Outside corner depth - I commented last week and I am still concerned. Siran Neal was a bit unlucky on the long touchdown throw because he had good position but at the same time my concerns about his speed as an outside guy remain. Dane Jackson played better than last week, he was tighter in coverage and just more active and around the ball. Nick McCloud had a pick on Dalton but just generally I still feel the Bills are thinner at the spot than a Superbowl contender should be. Interestingly I didn't see Levi Wallace out there at all (please correct me if I just missed him) which would suggest given that he did start last week that McDermott and Frazier have now declared whatever battle there was for CB2 over. 

 

Wallace did not show up on the snap counts Sal Capaccio posted.

 

I think this game showed if the Q is "who is our backup outside corner?" the A is not "Neal".  I think Jackson is more of a work in progress than the Bills thought going into preseason.  If there is one roster move I would like the Bills to make, it would be at CB.

 

 

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Jake Fromm - I know, I know, it sounds like I just wanna get on the kid's back, I really don't but 3/7 for 20 yards at 2.9 yards per attempt. I'm sorry I see nothing that suggests he has the arm to play in the league. I didn't think Davis Webb shone yesterday either, but at least he manages to get the ball out and into the hands of his playmakers. Fromm is the 4th best Quarterback on the roster. He could still land on the practice squad but I would have thought Webb will be ahead of him for that spot if he also clears waivers. There is no reason for the Bills to keep either of them as a 3rd guy on the 53. 

 

I feel the Bills were methodically looking at depth - last week, Fromm got later snaps and Webb earlier with better players around him, and Webb looked better.  This week, Webb got the snaps with the "dregs" at OL while Fromm had better OL and WR, and Webb still looked better.

 

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18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm not sure the staff sees TE as a competition either, but I think they should.  But as I said elsewhere for Kumerow, hopefully the "growth mindset" kicks in and Knox realizes he has more work to do.

 

 

Wallace did not show up on the snap counts Sal Capaccio posted.

 

I think this game showed if the Q is "who is our backup outside corner?" the A is not "Neal".  I think Jackson is more of a work in progress than the Bills thought going into preseason.  If there is one roster move I would like the Bills to make, it would be at CB.

 

 

 

I feel the Bills were methodically looking at depth - last week, Fromm got later snaps and Webb earlier with better players around him, and Webb looked better.  This week, Webb got the snaps with the "dregs" at OL while Fromm had better OL and WR, and Webb still looked better.

 

 

Agree with every single word of that @Hapless Bills Fan

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6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The 3rd team offensive line - You know you are struggling for negatives when you have to start digging into the 3rd team oline but these guys were all over the place. I was pretty happy with the Jack Anderson selection in the 7th round (I had him graded a little higher) but having seen him play two games he very much fits in the category of "developmental prospect" who needs some time and seasoning. Jordan Devey also majorly struggled at center. There was nobody on this line who looks like making a late push for the roster. 

 

There were a couple of REALLY bad plays from Devey. I think he is one of the 5 to not make it past Tuesday this week. 

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1 hour ago, MasterStrategist said:

 

Another shout out, to another player I'm high on, Damar Hamlin.  @Gunner thoughts on him?  I've seen him.play thru high school and college, thought he should have been drafted in the 4th round.  He's going to be a player, nothing special athletically but he's a field general and a physical safety.  Hoping he has one of the safety spots locked up.

 

I think Hamlin is in a competition with Josh Thomas, so long as Jaquan Johnson is healthy. I think if healthy (he missed yesterday hurt) Johnson is the third safety having been in the system a couple of years (he is also the main personal protector on punt team and without him yesterday Haack shanked one under pressure). After that Hamlin and Thomas are battling for that 4th spot. Think both have looked good. Really good battle. Would think they can get whoever loses it back on the PS in any event and keep hold of both.

1 hour ago, BillsFanSD said:

This.  Kumerow is ridiculously good for a sixth WR.  I don't expect flawless play from somebody that deep on the depth chart, but the guy can make plays.  

 

I agree. Is no knock on Kumerow. But is a 29 year old WR6 enough reason to potentially lose someone like Stevenson. Because I think if they try and cut him to sneak him onto the PS there is a very real risk a bad teams thinks he is worth taking the chance on. 

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5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Here we go... my take on who hurt themselves and who helped themselves in our beatdown of the Bears:

 

Good Night for...

 

Mitch Trubisky - Let's start with the returning hero Mitch Trubisky going back to the team that gave up on him (and he would still be the best QB on their roster right now). His first drive he was a little amped up and high on a couple of balls, but overall Mitch had a great half. I was advocating last year for an upgrade on Matt Barkley. A team with a Superbowl level roster and a Quarterback still earning essentially rookie level money for the year should have a high end backup. If (heaven forbid) Josh missed time Mitch could keep this team on track. 

 

The "starting" defensive line - Okay Greg Rousseau will grab the headlines, and rightly so he stood out again, but the whole of that 'starting' dline - Rousseau, Phillips, Oliver and Epenesa - was outstanding. They demolished the Bears (admittedly poor) starting oline. Rousseau grabbed another sack, two in two games, and Epenesa got a couple of really impressive pressures and one big Quarterback hit. I was impressed with Harrison Phillips again too - he had a batted ball on the first play and pushed the pocket well. He left the game injured and hopefully it is nothing serious. They also played the run better this week. All four of them were impressive and I also liked the fact Leslie had them move about and line up in different spots. Ed rushed once from the edge, AJ rushed stood up from the interior.... it remains to be seen what it looks like when the lights go on against the Steelers but so far so good on improving the line play.  

 

Jacob Hollister - Dawson Knox remains atop of the depth chart and has started both pre-season games but he had another drop today and Job Hollister caught 3 for 53 and a 2 point conversion. He isn't the athletic freak that Knox is but he has looked like a solid addition who knows his role and has safe hands. I'm not sure the staff sees Tight End as a live "competition" but I think you are going to see both get plenty of opportunities when the regular season starts. 

 

Reggie Gilliam - Not sure there was ever any doubt about Gilliam making the roster but a really nice night for him, 2 short yardage touchdowns, plus a short yardage conversion for a first down and a really nice block on the Zack Moss run to the 1. He is a core special teamer, he can play full back, he can play tight end, and he ended this game playing some tailback. He is just the definition of a McBeane player - versatile, smart, tough, and with that underdog chip on his shoulder. The up-back handoffs in short yardage and goalline situations definitely look like an addition to the offense, it's not something this staff has done a lot before now though I remember Marrone and Hackett used them occasionally with Frank "the tank" Summers a few years back. 

 

Marquez Stevenson - With that one play on punt return I think this kid secured his place in Buffalo. You can't cut guys with his speed who score special teams touchdowns in pre-season and expect them to get through waivers. It almost never happens. Teams with less depth will be willing to take a shot and just use him as a returner. I still don't think he looks anything special as a receiver at this point and given the players ahead of him finding a spot is tricky. Could they stash him on IR? Sure. Could they put him on the 53 thinking "we will cut him a few weeks into the season when teams are a bit more settled and then sneak him on the practice squad".... they could definitely try that but that is what Denver tried with Isaiah McKenzie three years ago and the Bills (at the time a bad team with little depth) liked the upside enough to claim him. Unless Buffalo is willing to lose him, Stevenson has to be on the squad in my opinion. 

 

 

Bad Night for...

 

Outside corner depth - I commented last week and I am still concerned. Siran Neal was a bit unlucky on the long touchdown throw because he had good position but at the same time my concerns about his speed as an outside guy remain. Dane Jackson played better than last week, he was tighter in coverage and just more active and around the ball. Nick McCloud had a pick on Dalton but just generally I still feel the Bills are thinner at the spot than a Superbowl contender should be. Interestingly I didn't see Levi Wallace out there at all (please correct me if I just missed him) which would suggest given that he did start last week that McDermott and Frazier have now declared whatever battle there was for CB2 over. 

 

Jake Kumerow - Seems slightly harsh to have a player who scored a touchdown on the "bad night" list but it was hard to find guys for this category this week after that performance. Here is my thinking on Kumerow: he had two bad drops. Yes the ball was a bit off target on the first but still he should have hauled it in. Also Isaiah McKenzie proved yet again that he is the 5th best receiver on this team, led the Bills in yards and receptions, can play outside and in the slot, and even if you ignore the returners job he belongs on this roster. Then Stevenson has the big return and makes himself very difficult to sneak onto the practice squad as discussed above. All of which means the WR6 spot that Kumerow looked to have essentially tied up might just be a little vulnerable again. The Bills could choose to go with 7, of course, but what looked like a done deal at receiver suddenly got interesting. 

 

Matt Haack - Not a great night for the Bills' new punter. It was remarked on by a few people last week that he seemed to take a while to get his punt off and on his shanked 29 yarder in the 2nd quarter the Bears definitely got close enough to disrupt his motion. He also had a 48 yarder in the second half where he was guilty of the thing I used to criticise Bojo for pretty frequently - out kicking his coverage with poor hang time. Was not impressed. Worth watching when the season kicks off. 

 

Jake Fromm - I know, I know, it sounds like I just wanna get on the kid's back, I really don't but 3/7 for 20 yards at 2.9 yards per attempt. I'm sorry I see nothing that suggests he has the arm to play in the league. I didn't think Davis Webb shone yesterday either, but at least he manages to get the ball out and into the hands of his playmakers. Fromm is the 4th best Quarterback on the roster. He could still land on the practice squad but I would have thought Webb will be ahead of him for that spot if he also clears waivers. There is no reason for the Bills to keep either of them as a 3rd guy on the 53. 

 

The 3rd team offensive line - You know you are struggling for negatives when you have to start digging into the 3rd team oline but these guys were all over the place. I was pretty happy with the Jack Anderson selection in the 7th round (I had him graded a little higher) but having seen him play two games he very much fits in the category of "developmental prospect" who needs some time and seasoning. Jordan Devey also majorly struggled at center. There was nobody on this line who looks like making a late push for the roster. 

 

 

There you have it folks. That is how I saw week 2!

Several random comments:

 

I'd take the quotes off of "starting" defensive line.   Star will play instead of Harrison, but the other three may be the three best playmakers on the Dline roster.   I know Hughes will start, and Addison if they keep him, but those three are the ones most likely to make headlines.  

 

I like Hollister the first time I saw him in Seattle.  He may not have the raw physical talent that Knox has, but he's solid, smart,  and consistent.  Between the two of them, the Bills will get nice production out of the TE.

 

Stevenson is a real problem.  You're right, the Bills probably have to find a spot for him on the 53, because he won't make it to the practice squad, unless he simply decides to decline all offers because he likes his future in Buffalo better.  It's only a matter of time (next season at the latest) before he takes McKenzie's job, because he's younger, faster, and has more upside.  But he doesn't catch the ball well enough yet, and he's had his own problems handling punts.  

 

Outside corner depth is always a problem, because it's always manned by inexperienced players.  Most seasons we've been pleasantly surprised by how one rookie or another plays later in the season.   I agree it looks shaky, although I think Neal is pretty consistent.  

 

Kumerow is my poster child for why the Bills seem so deep.   I say "seem," because I'm coming to realize that, like Belichick, McDermott runs a system where smart, motivated players with average talent can be solid contributors.  There are a lot of smart, motivated players in the NFL, and so long as Beane does a good job finding them, the Bills will seem like they're deep in talent.  I don't think they really are - I think they are deep in guys who can help make the Bills good.   I think Kumerow is one, I think McKenzie is one, and Boettger and Bates and Phillips and Matekevich and Gilliam and Johnson and probably a half dozen more.  So, for example, McDermott gets faced with the Kumerow-Stevenson problem - if you can't find room for both, do you take the smart, motivated veteran who is going to make routine plays for you consistently but has limited upside (he's like Gabriel Davis without Davis's upside), or do you take the talented, motivated rookie who is going to make some big plays for you but make more mistakes in the short term?  I don't have an answer, but I will say this about the two:  Speed is critical to success in the NFL.  That's why the Chiefs drafted that running back out of LSU.   You need speed at the skill positions.  McKenzie gives the Bills some, but I have the sense that McKenzie doesn't play fast as a receiver, and Stevenson does.  So, I think Stevenson has to make it, not simply to protect him for the future, but because Dabs will work him into the offense to present a challenge to the defense.  And I think Kumerow has to make it, too.  As I said, he's a poor man's Davis.  He's the possession receiver that people hoped Duke Williams would be.   He's a security blanket for the QB like a classic tight end.  If one has to go, I think it's Kumerow, who probably has a better chance of surviving on the PS.  He will understand that as soon as there's an injury, he's coming up to the 53, and he probably is willing to accept that.    Looking at the logjam at DE and at wideout makes me think that Addison really is at risk - the future of the Bills looks better with Kumerow and Stevenson and without Addison.  The Bills won't miss Addison too much this season, and they'll want Kumerow and Stevenson in future seasons.  

 

I have confidence in the move to Haack.  He punted 68 times last season, compared to Bojo's 41, and he had two touchbacks, compared to Bojo's seven.  As with every other position on the team, the punter has to play as close to mistake free as possible, and seven touchbacks on 41 punts is far from mistake free.  Forcing the opponents' kick returner to field a punt inside the 20 is a great play - possible turnover, possible block in the back, easy to cover and create good field position.  Plus, if we're to believe what we heard, Bojo was a below average holder on place kicks.   

 

I agree about Davis.   He might turn out to be the Bills' backup QB for ten years, a rich man's Barkley - smart, reasonably athletic, reliable.  Turnover yesterday was classic for an inexperienced guy, but he'll learn.  I think Fromm is a similar guy, but Davis is the better athlete.  

 

Thanks for some great analysis.  

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15 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

drops happen. toe taps and tds outweigh the drop, imho

 

It is the combination of the drops and the impact of Stevenson's TD which makes the numbers game at receiver dicey for him. Kumerow is the 6th best receiver on this team.... no argument from me there. He can play in this league. But if the Bills want to keep Stevenson then trying to cut and sneak on the PS is really risky which might mean they have to sacrifice someone who would otherwise make it. Given the obvious route is cut another receiver then Kumerow is the one in the firing line. That is why I put him in bad night. He had two drops and the one guy who could force him off the roster made a play that gives the Bills an issue.

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Stevenson is a real problem.  You're right, the Bills probably have to find a spot for him on the 53, because he won't make it to the practice squad, unless he simply decides to decline all offers because he likes his future in Buffalo better.  It's only a matter of time (next season at the latest) before he takes McKenzie's job, because he's younger, faster, and has more upside.  But he doesn't catch the ball well enough yet, and he's had his own problems handling punts.  

 

Someone may correct me but if they cut Stevenson to try and bring him back on the PS and he is claimed off Waivers that is like being drafted. So he couldn't just "decide" not to go there. That team automatically owns his rights. I seem to recall he Bills claiming Dree Archer off the waiver wire from the Steelers and him refusing to come here so he had to retire. 

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24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is the combination of the drops and the impact of Stevenson's TD which makes the numbers game at receiver dicey for him. Kumerow is the 6th best receiver on this team.... no argument from me there. He can play in this league. But if the Bills want to keep Stevenson then trying to cut and sneak on the PS is really risky which might mean they have to sacrifice someone who would otherwise make it. Given the obvious route is cut another receiver then Kumerow is the one in the firing line. That is why I put him in bad night. He had two drops and the one guy who could force him off the roster made a play that gives the Bills an issue.

 

Someone may correct me but if they cut Stevenson to try and bring him back on the PS and he is claimed off Waivers that is like being drafted. So he couldn't just "decide" not to go there. That team automatically owns his rights. I seem to recall he Bills claiming Dree Archer off the waiver wire from the Steelers and him refusing to come here so he had to retire. 

I don't know those rules, but I think you're correct.   Stevenson doesn't have the option.   

 

Is that true for everyone cut, or only rookies?  Does it apply to Kumerow?

 

Found this:  "A player who gets cut and has less than four years of service time is placed on waivers. All 31 other teams can place a claim on the player and add him to their 53-man roster. If the player passes through waivers unclaimed, they are free to sign with any team as an unrestricted free agent."

 

I don't know what four years of service means - probably active roster time.   A guy with four years active roster time should become a free agent immediately.  

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1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

I like that Gilliam looks like a hybrid between a RB and a FB. He's got a little speed and agility to him. Wonder if he could make Matt Breida expendable and free up a spot on the 53 for both Stevenson and Kumrowe.

 

I don't expect the Bills to keep a 3rd QB so that opens up one roster spot.  They also don't have Roberts as a return specialist so that's another.

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23 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I don't know those rules, but I think you're correct.   Stevenson doesn't have the option.   

 

Is that true for everyone cut, or only rookies?  Does it apply to Kumerow?

 

Found this:  "A player who gets cut and has less than four years of service time is placed on waivers. All 31 other teams can place a claim on the player and add him to their 53-man roster. If the player passes through waivers unclaimed, they are free to sign with any team as an unrestricted free agent."

 

I don't know what four years of service means - probably active roster time.   A guy with four years active roster time should become a free agent immediately.  

 

Yea I am not sure Kumerow has 4 accrued years so would apply to him too but might be wrong.

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Always appreciate these posts, Gunner.

 

Ford, Feliciano and Ike were all active. From what you have seen, and assuming what you saw matches what the Bills have seen in the games and TC, who would you put on a starting OL during the season?

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Yeah I'm starting to think Kumerow will be put on the PS. I know there were multiple reports of him looking really good in training camp, but that was with Allen throwing him the ball for the most part. We have to remember we have a QB that makes WRs look better than they are. With Trubisky throwing him the ball he looked like a borderline rosterable player. I don't think he offers the offense or special teams a skill set that another younger player doesn't already offer.

 

If it's between Kumerow and Stevenson I take Stevenson just because he offers return ability and I'm too worried about McKenzie's hands at this point to just give him the job uncontested. If McKenzie wins the returner job, fine, but at the very least I want Stevenson there to put pressure on him and potentially replace him if it doesn't work out.

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1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

drops happen. toe taps and tds outweigh the drop, imho

 

I understand that viewpoint, but IMHO both are "not good enough". 

 

That's been the story of Knox, too - amazing high degree of difficulty toe-tapping contested catches, and a number of drops in situations which would have converted 3rd down.  To make it to the next level, we Need those plays.

 

1 hour ago, Philo said:

 

There were a couple of REALLY bad plays from Devey. I think he is one of the 5 to not make it past Tuesday this week. 

 

I don't know.  I think Devey is a decent guard.  They've been looking for positional flexibility from him, and I think the answer to "can he play tackle?"  "can he play guard?" is No.

 

How many do we cut this Tues?

 

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Also I think Spencer Brown deserves a shout out. Here he is putting Khalil Mack on the ground:

 

 

 

That was amazingly beautiful.  "Rookie!  Welcome to the NF....DAMN!"

 

Am I the only one who thinks Brown looks more comfortable at RT?  I was thinking they were focusing him at LT on the "do one thing well" principle, but I'm now wondering if they think he has RT down, and were challenging him for positional flexibility

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4 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

Great stuff as usual, GB! I may be alone on this, but I think we’re good at DB. It would take a couple injured guys missing a few games before shopping ensues, imo. If so, there’s a million to choose from as every team  goes 4-5 wide at times. We don’t NEED another Tre White, just competence with a particular skill set.

 

I think Kumerow and Hollister are locks and we haven’t even seen Josh throw to his homeboy yet.

 

Simply put, Haack & Fromm are trash. I fear Bojo & A. Robert’s will be sorely missed this year.

 

 

I share this opinion as well. If they look this good with Mitch I can't  wait when Josh starts slinging it.

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26 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Yeah I'm starting to think Kumerow will be put on the PS. I know there were multiple reports of him looking really good in training camp, but that was with Allen throwing him the ball for the most part. We have to remember we have a QB that makes WRs look better than they are. With Trubisky throwing him the ball he looked like a borderline rosterable player. I don't think he offers the offense or special teams a skill set that another younger player doesn't already offer.

 

If it's between Kumerow and Stevenson I take Stevenson just because he offers return ability and I'm too worried about McKenzie's hands at this point to just give him the job uncontested. If McKenzie wins the returner job, fine, but at the very least I want Stevenson there to put pressure on him and potentially replace him if it doesn't work out.

 

I'm not so sure about that offense or ST skillset "another younger player doesn't already offer".  Kumerow was "lights out" on ST last season.  From reports, he's been playing lights out on ST this camp.  Kumerow is also a capable downfield blocker (at least 1 plays I saw from PS game 1) can block in the backfield - I have a film clip of him somewhere just sweeping a premier pass rusher along the LOS and out of the picture to spring a big run play.  So those are things Stevenson doesn't offer.

 

As far as wanting a "backup plan" to McKenzie, keep in mind the reason McKenzie is in the lead for the KR/PR race is that Stevenson and Powell have not looked as good or as consistent in practice.  So if you're trying to "hedge" your McKenzie bets, Stevenson might not be the guy you do it with - you want to count on the guy who has looked worse in practice? Powell has at least done it on Sunday in the league for Atlanta.

 

I do agree that Kumerow could have locked his spot with a more consistent performance yesterday, and he didn't clinch it.

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15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Am I the only one who thinks Brown looks more comfortable at RT?  I was thinking they were focusing him at LT on the "do one thing well" principle, but I'm now wondering if they think he has RT down, and were challenging him for positional flexibility

 

His draft projection was as a RT. I think they are just giving him reps at LT too so he can be their primary swing tackle. Based on how he looked yesterday I am wondering how easy it would be to get out of Darryl Williams' contract after this year. Next year I think Brown will be ready.

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