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Barnwell's Entire Playoff Prediction


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The biggest X factor in a rematch is that Allen will likely be more willing to run in the playoffs. We really haven’t seen a whole lot of that this season, but in single elimination.... I would count on him taking off for even a few yards when it’s free yardage and coverage is tight. 

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And the Bills were without Brown....   Yep Allen was shaky not good the first 24 minutes.  The last 40 minutes the Steelers had no no answer for him.

 

The last six possessions 315 yards, 1 punt, 2TD's and 2 FG's....  But when the game was in the balance it does not count, the first 24 minutes is more important to his narrative.

 

If they do play Pitt, you know this will be the exact narrative many pundits will take.

 

Get by Indy and see what's next and play the game.

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I just care about tomorrow.   We win, we can have a never ending discussion on Pitt, or whoever else pans out.  Still a bunch of scenarios.  We beat hypothetically (not really as we should win) the Colts, then the Chiefs gets the next worst seed, so if Cleveland wins, we get the winner of the Ravens/Titans.

 

I thought the WGR guys said it best this morning.  The only one to be afraid of is crazy mistakes from us.  Not any opponent.  My hope is the Steelers win.  The Titans/Ravens beat each other up as they are both physical teams.  
 

We get the Steelers and destroy them.  The winner of that team beats on the Chiefs.  We face the Chiefs and I hope it’s the Titans so Henry just pounds on the Chiefs.

 

the Chiefs like a ripened pounded meat is tenderized chiefs team faces the hottest team in the NFL.

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4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

He "doesn't understand the context of the stats"? Please. Whatever else you want to say about Barnwell, he's smart as hell. He certainly understands that.

 

And his narrative isn't divorced from reality either. 

 

Disagreeing with him, though, is certainly fair. It's all opinions when it comes to predictions.

It is because of Barnwell's intelligence, not despite it, that he says things like momentum doesn't exist in sports.

 

It doesn't. 

 

NFL football's IQ is rising all the time right now.  The old ways of "football guys" doing the same dumb stuff over and over are coming to a close.


Thank goodness.

 

 

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I’ve watched the psyche of buffalo fans completely warp over the last 6 days. Sunday we were world beaters and could take on anyone. Fast forward to Friday and the Colts are going to figure out and exploit our weaknesses, grind us down, keep the ball away from our offense and run it down our throats. 

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48 minutes ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

I’ve watched the psyche of buffalo fans completely warp over the last 6 days. Sunday we were world beaters and could take on anyone. Fast forward to Friday and the Colts are going to figure out and exploit our weaknesses, grind us down, keep the ball away from our offense and run it down our throats. 


haha— true. We are all terrified. 

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On 1/8/2021 at 11:23 AM, ScottLaw said:

Because someone's confused that someone didn't predict the Bills to beat Pittsburgh in the divisional round of the playoffs.... like it's unfathomable if that happens..... 

Or because I thought it was interesting and worth talking about, and I am not a big fan of Barnwell and haven’t been for a long time. I take issue with his overreliance on letting the stats drive narratives rather than having the game explained from the important stats that effect the outcome and effectiveness.  I understand how deceiving stats can be when not properly put into context, especially in sports.  I fully understand that the Bills could lose to any team in the playoffs - these are all good teams and the Bills are not full of playoff experience.  Presumptive assholery is the problem with society. 

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On 1/8/2021 at 1:15 PM, Billsfan1972 said:

And the Bills were without Brown....   Yep Allen was shaky not good the first 24 minutes.  The last 40 minutes the Steelers had no no answer for him.

 

The last six possessions 315 yards, 1 punt, 2TD's and 2 FG's....  But when the game was in the balance it does not count, the first 24 minutes is more important to his narrative.

 

If they do play Pitt, you know this will be the exact narrative many pundits will take.

 

Get by Indy and see what's next and play the game.

Gonna need Smoke to come from witness protection 

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On 1/8/2021 at 8:42 AM, Ayjent said:

First off, I think Barnwell is a dry writer and has some serious misconceptions of sports (like his whole theory that momentum doesn't actually exist in sports).  I still read it because it is better than a lot of what ESPN puts out.  The article requires ESPN+ (which I wouldn't pay for by itself but as a bundle with Hulu and Disney+ why not) https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/30661462/nfl-playoff-bracket-predictions-bill-barnwell-picks-every-winner-including-super-bowl-score . Barnwell has the Saints beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl and it goes like this for the Bills:

 

They beat the Colts and lose to the Steelers.  "The Steelers' offense isn't great, but it's not as bad as it looked against the Bills in December, when it went 1-for-10 on third downs." and "It wouldn't shock me if we saw the Steelers' defense and Allen combine for something similar to the first matchup, when the Bills scored 19 points on offense (cornerback Taron Johnson had a pick-six to get the Bills to 26)."

 

Steelers lose to Chiefs in AFC Championship, and Saints beat Bucs in NFC Championship.

 

What interests me is how a one dimensional offense with an inability to stretch the field in its one dimension and a defense that got physically dominated in the second half somehow makes Pittsburgh a team that presents too many problems for the Bills.  The Bills scored 19 points on Offense in the first matchup because it didn't need to score more and dominated the clock to put the Steelers in a sleeper hold in the fourth quarter.  It was a dominating victory even though the Bills struggled early in the game on Offense to get things going.  The Bills defense simply matches up well against teams that can't run or pass deep - it plays right into their strengths.  And I'm not hating on Barnwell because its just a silly prediction piece, but how he relies on things like DVOA of defenses better than the Bills that the Steelers were more successful against rather than actual matchup strengths and weaknesses has always been a thing that irks me about his analysis.  He doesn't understand the context of the stats he cites and relies too heavily on them.  You can use stats to backup what you know you saw when you watched the game but when you use stats to perpetuate a narrative that doesn't reflect reality then you are just clueless and blind in what you are trying to prove.


 

I’m not really a Barnwell fan but his logic here makes sense.  I don’t necessarily agree with it but it isn’t the most out there kind of take.

 

I can see Pittsburgh playing better than it do the last time we played them but the teams are pretty evenly matched IMO so I see the game as a coin flip and yes it could come down to turnovers

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31 minutes ago, Ayjent said:

Or because I thought it was interesting and worth talking about, and I am not a big fan of Barnwell and haven’t been for a long time. I take issue with his overreliance on letting the stats drive narratives rather than having the game explained from the important stats that effect the outcome and effectiveness.  I understand how deceiving stats can be when not properly put into context, especially in sports.  I fully understand that the Bills could lose to any team in the playoffs - these are all good teams and the Bills are not full of playoff experience.  Presumptive assholery is the problem with society. 

I wouldn’t take much stock into many ESPN analysts opinion on the NFL game.... theirs are no better than yours or mine.... they just get paid for it. 

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