"How lessons from Josh Allen’s rookie year propelled him to stardom in 2020"

[transplantbillsfan]

Felt deserving of its own thread.  Like many I hated the pick when we got him, but quickly saw what he could be. And as someone who watched and scrutinized EVERY snap of Allen’s (and Mayfield's and Rosen's and Darnold's and Jackson's and Wentz's and Watson's and Goff's) rookie year, I really got sick of all the arguments over Allen being inaccurate when decision making is what was (and still is, at times) his problem.

 

His accuracy has improved, but he was accurate even as a rookie.

 

Anyway, enjoy...

 

https://theathletic.com/2204066/2020/11/19/josh-allen-buffalo-bills?source=user-shared-article

When Derek Anderson got to Buffalo in October 2018, the Bills’ quarterback room was in disarray.

...

 

Before long, though, Allen didn’t make Anderson feel old at all. It was the opposite. Watching the way Allen loved everything about being in the building was contagious.

 

“He gave me new life,” Anderson said. “He energized me and made me love the game more.”

...

Yet so much of what Allen has shown in 2020 was there in flashes in 2018. And so much of what happened in 2018 helped make him the quarterback he is in 2020.

...

 

But those who were there saw the hints of greatness in Allen. Only four other offensive players from the 2018 Bills are left on the 2020 team. Anderson, who retired after the 2018 season because of a concussion he suffered that year, watches every game closely. Anderson’s son loves to cheer for his friend Josh, so the Bills games are on every Sunday in the Anderson house. And because of how quickly Anderson developed a friendship with Allen and Matt Barkley, who joined the quarterback room a few weeks after Anderson, he still FaceTimes them after games and chats with offensive coordinator Brian Daboll on a weekly basis. He’s seen Allen’s breakout year through the perspective of someone who saw his struggles in 2018.

 

“He’s done a great job of knowing when a play is over, getting the ball down to guys underneath and not really having the feeling that he’s got to be the guy that always makes the play,” Anderson said. “I think that’s kind of been the biggest thing I’ve seen over the past couple of years is taking the easy completions, taking the shots when they’re there and protecting the football.”

...

Isaiah McKenzie, another midseason pickup in 2018, is the only receiver left on the roster from Allen’s rookie season. As Beane has aggressively added talent to that position group, McKenzie has found a way to survive and get a front row seat to Allen’s development. After Allen’s 400-yard, four-touchdown game against the Seahawks, McKenzie said Allen looks like a completely different quarterback than the one he saw when he arrived in Buffalo.

 

“The mistakes he made in 2018 and 2019, you don’t see those anymore,” McKenzie said. “He’s a whole new person. It’s the same Josh, but it’s just like his decision making is way better. He’s doing things with the ball that I haven’t see a lot of quarterbacks do.”

...

What Anderson tried to instill in Allen was work habits. It’s not that Allen wasn’t a willing worker early in his career but he didn’t necessarily know how to work. Preparing for games in the Mountain West is different than being an NFL quarterback. Talent can’t carry you as far in the NFL as it can in college.

 

By the time he got to Buffalo, Anderson had established a preparation routine that worked for him. He always made sure he was among the first players in the building and he was always at least one day ahead on the plays and concepts the team would be working on during practice. He would get to the building first, work out and have watched at least 45 minutes of film before his teammates arrived. At that point in his career, Anderson had a feel for what it meant to be a successful mentor. He took notes on what worked during Newton’s rookie season in Carolina. He wasted no time relaying those to Allen, because he saw the same special potential if Allen got the right guidance.

...

The toughness and leadership presented themselves early. Teammates still talk about when he hurdled over Anthony Barr in the Bills’ upset win over Minnesota early in his rookie season. McKenzie points to the road game against the Dolphins in which Allen totaled four touchdowns in a narrow loss as the first hint that he could be Buffalo’s guy.

...

 

Expecting improvement is one thing, but Allen’s rise has been meteoric. In his first two NFL seasons, Allen didn’t throw for 300 yards in a game once. He’s done it five times this season. His completion percentage has jumped 15.6 percentage points from his rookie season.

 

Even his advanced metrics like DVOA, QBR and PFF grade have all taken substantial jumps. He’s improved throwing the ball to all three levels of the field. Anderson remembers when Allen couldn’t hit the easy screen throws in 2018. This season, Allen has 13 touchdowns on passes thrown within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.

 

[Thurman#1]

To respond to your introduction, Josh very clearly was inaccurate early,

 

While like most rookies he had problems in many areas, certainly including decision-making, his early accuracy was consistently inconsistent. He wouldn't argue, nor would his QB coaches. In fact, Josh and his coaches have often said that they addressed his mechanics, which then helped make him more consistently. And that work, and the improvement in his accuracy, continue to this day.

 

They still talk about connecting his lower and upper body, about shortening his stride, about stepping in the right direction and otherwise working on his footwork. The reason they're working on those things is because it improves his accuracy and the consistency of his accuracy. He certainly didn't need to improve his arm strength.

 

And the results have been very easily observable.

 

He really was not accurate as a rookie. Or rather, he was extremely accurate on some passes and then wildly inaccurate on others, and what that amounts to is inaccuracy with the possibility of improvement.

 

I was on record before the draft as saying that I thought he had a good chance to be successful, but that I agreed with the experts that he would take a lot of develoment, but that with work on his mechanics he might be a good pick. (Full disclosure: he sure wasn't my #1, he was my #4 but I did think he was worth a top ten pick, though I thought all four of them were). But he needed a lot of work on mechanics and accuracy. And there were a few guys who had gotten more accurate after college, including Brady and Rodgers, but others also. There were even two guys who had improve their completion percentages by 10% or more after bad college stats. (Favre, for one, and there was one other guy, dang it, but I forget.) And yeah, completion percentage is NOT equivalent to accuracy, but it  certainly can be an indicator.

 

 It was a huge argument at the time. (I believe you were on the other side, arguing that he was wildly inaccurate and that accuracy couldn't be improved, though I don't remember for sure on that. Please, correct me if I'm wrong.) He's followed right along the path of improvement that he seemed to need, but has done far more than was needed, at every step, improving accuracy, decision-making, knowledge of defenses, touch, and a million other little things, really.

 

Anyway, good article. Thanks for posting it.

 

Edited November 21, 2020 by Thurman#1

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

To respond to your introduction, Josh very clearly was inaccurate early,

 

While like most rookies he had problems in many areas, certainly including decision-making, his early accuracy was consistently inconsistent. He wouldn't argue, nor would his QB coaches. In fact, Josh and his coaches have often said that they addressed his mechanics, which then helped make him more consistently. And that work, and the improvement in his accuracy, continue to this day.

 

They still talk about connecting his lower and upper body, about shortening his stride, about stepping in the right direction and otherwise working on his footwork. The reason they're working on those things is because it improves his accuracy and the consistency of his accuracy. He certainly didn't need to improve his arm strength.

 

And the results have been very easily observable.

 

He really was not accurate as a rookie. Or rather, he was extremely accurate on some passes and then wildly inaccurate on others, and what that amounts to is inaccuracy with the possibility of improvement.

 

I was on record before the draft as saying that I thought he had a good chance to be successful, but that I agreed with the experts that he would take a lot of develoment, but that with work on his mechanics he might be a good pick. (Full disclosure: he sure wasn't my #1, he was my #4 but I did think he was worth a top ten pick, though I thought all four of them were). But he needed a lot of work on mechanics and accuracy. And there were a few guys who had gotten much more accurate after college (Favre, for one, and there was one other guy, dang it, but I forget. It was a huge argument at the time. I believe you were on the other side, arguing that he was wildly inaccurate and that accuracy couldn't be improved, though I don't remember for sure on that. Please, correct me if I'm wrong.) He's followed right along the path of improvement that he seemed to need, but has done far more than was needed, at every step, improving accuracy, decision-making, knowledge of defenses, touch, and a million other little things, really.

 

Anyway, good article. Thanks for posting it.

 

I disagree with you. When people said he was inacurate they meant far more inacurate than other QB's, even other rookies. They point to his low completion percentage as proof. But his completion percentage as not low due to him missing his target.

 

That's just not the case at all. Allen did have some mechanics issues (as tons of QB's do coming into the NFL) and he did miss throws sometimes (as all QB's do) but he was not less accurate than other young QB's in the NFL. He was often very accurate on throws. His misses due to mechanics and actually missing his target happened, but were rare. He missed more due to bad decision making, throwing into coverage, being under pressure, not being on the same page with his receivers, and receivers dropping passes, and refusing to take check downs and other easy completions.

 

Allen has never been an inacurate passer, or at least he has never been more inacurate than most young QB's. He has often shown the physical ability to put the ball right where it needs to be. He just needed to get more experience and learn the mental aspects of the game to catch up, and yes, fix a few mechanics (which is common in young QB's).

[Richard Noggin]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

To respond to your introduction, Josh very clearly was inaccurate early,

 

While like most rookies he had problems in many areas, certainly including decision-making, his early accuracy was consistently inconsistent. He wouldn't argue, nor would his QB coaches. In fact, Josh and his coaches have often said that they addressed his mechanics, which then helped make him more consistently. And that work, and the improvement in his accuracy, continue to this day.

 

They still talk about connecting his lower and upper body, about shortening his stride, about stepping in the right direction and otherwise working on his footwork. The reason they're working on those things is because it improves his accuracy and the consistency of his accuracy. He certainly didn't need to improve his arm strength.

 

And the results have been very easily observable.

 

He really was not accurate as a rookie. Or rather, he was extremely accurate on some passes and then wildly inaccurate on others, and what that amounts to is inaccuracy with the possibility of improvement.

 

I was on record before the draft as saying that I thought he had a good chance to be successful, but that I agreed with the experts that he would take a lot of develoment, but that with work on his mechanics he might be a good pick. (Full disclosure: he sure wasn't my #1, he was my #4 but I did think he was worth a top ten pick, though I thought all four of them were). But he needed a lot of work on mechanics and accuracy. And there were a few guys who had gotten much more accurate after college (Favre, for one, and there was one other guy, dang it, but I forget. It was a huge argument at the time. I believe you were on the other side, arguing that he was wildly inaccurate and that accuracy couldn't be improved, though I don't remember for sure on that. Please, correct me if I'm wrong.) He's followed right along the path of improvement that he seemed to need, but has done far more than was needed, at every step, improving accuracy, decision-making, knowledge of defenses, touch, and a million other little things, really.

 

Anyway, good article. Thanks for posting it.

 

 

I'm with you on the fact that JOSH ALLEN WAS INACCURATE when he entered the NFL. He was. Inaccurate doesn't mean a QB cannot throw the ball accurately. Clearly, he's always been able to throw the ball impressively at times. Inaccurate means he doesn't place the ball precisely, consistently. It's about making all the throws, most of the time. He did NOT do that early on.

 

(Remember VERY early this season, when Diggs was laughably double or I think triple-covered--I think this was against the Jets in week one--to the left side of the field, near the red zone, and as Josh rolled out to his left, Diggs jumped up and down pointing past himself to Kroft or whomever the hell was WIDE open in the endzone, and Allen badly missed him, sailing the ball WAY over the receiver's head? That ***** used to happen more often.)

 

I've noticed that he's been most effective this season when he just flicks the ball. Less rotation, less traditional delivery, just elbow-to-wrist Aaron Rodgers flick. I really pay attention to his first-drive mechanics. When he's relaxed, Josh Allen doesn't need mechanics. He can flick short and intermediate dimes all over the field. He's best when he keeps the fastball in his back pocket. And you can tell if he's geeked up early because he tends to overthrow. 

 

I haven't seen this red flag more than two or three times this season. KC for sure. 2nd Jets a bit. Patriots a little. 

 

Bottom line: he has dramatically improved his accuracy through a variety of measures (including improved/simplified mechanics and better decision-making).

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

I disagree with you. When people said he was inacurate they meant far more inacurate than other QB's, even other rookies. They point to his low completion percentage as proof. But his completion percentage as not low due to him missing his target.

 

That's just not the case at all. Allen did have some mechanics issues (as tons of QB's do coming into the NFL) and he did miss throws sometimes (as all QB's do) but he was not less accurate than other young QB's in the NFL. He was often very accurate on throws. His misses due to mechanics and actually missing his target happened, but were rare. He missed more due to bad decision making, throwing into coverage, being under pressure, not being on the same page with his receivers, and receivers dropping passes, and refusing to take check downs and other easy completions.

 

Allen has never been an inacurate passer, or at least he has never been more inacurate than most young QB's. He has often shown the physical ability to put the ball right where it needs to be. He just needed to get more experience and learn the mental aspects of the game to catch up, and yes, fix a few mechanics (which is common in young QB's).

 

 

There aren't reasonable grounds to say that Allen was accurate coming out of college, or early in Buffalo. He wasn't. He had plenty of times when he made the right read, made the right decision, and airmailed the ball or threw far in front or far behind the reciever. He did this at a much higher rate than pretty much any successful pro QB did. He had to improve his accuracy a lot. 

 

And  he did.

 

You're correct that completion percentage does not directly and exactly equal accuracy. People who think use completion percentage and only completion percentage as their only argument on accuracy are missing the point. But Josh had problems in terms of inconsistent accuracy in every way. Brilliant throw, brilliant throw, awful throw, brilliant throw, caught but only because the reciever had to stop his route, nice throw, bad throw. That was Josh. Accurate only inconsistently. 

 

If you doubt this, go back and find anyone around draft time who called Allen consistently accurate. Anyone. You won't. And it isn't because they were all only using completion percentage. It was because he simply was NOT consistently accurate. He had accuracy problems, nearly all of it due to mechanical issues that pretty much everyone was aware of. That's a lot of the reason he was thought of as a developmental guy. Even the guys who liked Allen a lot (Kiper and Mayock, for instance) knew he had a lot of work to do on his accuracy.

 

 

 

Yeah, they said he was inaccurate and yeah they meant far more inaccurate than other QBs, even other rookies. The reason they said this and meant this is simple ... he really was more inaccurate than other rookies. You say "he missed due to mechanics." Um, yes, precisely. And that is called inaccuracy. You say he threw into coverage. Yeah, sometimes he did, as do most rookies. But that is NOT called inaccuracy. It was a problem, but not an accuracy problem.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I'm with you on the fact that JOSH ALLEN WAS INACCURATE when he entered the NFL. He was. Inaccurate doesn't mean a QB cannot throw the ball accurately. Clearly, he's always been able to throw the ball impressively at times. Inaccurate means he doesn't place the ball precisely, consistently. It's about making all the throws, most of the time. He did NOT do that early on.

 

(Remember VERY early this season, when Diggs was laughably double or I think triple-covered--I think this was against the Jets in week one--to the left side of the field, near the red zone, and as Josh rolled out to his left, Diggs jumped up and down pointing past himself to Kroft or whomever the hell was WIDE open in the endzone, and Allen badly missed him, sailing the ball WAY over the receiver's head? That ***** used to happen more often.)

 

I've noticed that he's been most effective this season when he just flicks the ball. Less rotation, less traditional delivery, just elbow-to-wrist Aaron Rodgers flick. I really pay attention to his first-drive mechanics. When he's relaxed, Josh Allen doesn't need mechanics. He can flick short and intermediate dimes all over the field. He's best when he keeps the fastball in his back pocket. And you can tell if he's geeked up early because he tends to overthrow. 

 

I haven't seen this red flag more than two or three times this season. KC for sure. 2nd Jets a bit. Patriots a little. 

 

Bottom line: he has dramatically improved his accuracy through a variety of measures (including improved/simplified mechanics and better decision-making).

 

 

Exactly. You're precisely on target when you say that "inaccurate doesn't mean a QB cannot throw the ball inaccurately." Allen always had the capability, that was obvious. He just didn't do it as consistently as the others in his draft class or really as consistently as most QBs on a track towards NFL success do late in their college career.

 

Interesting about the flicking. I'll look for it. I wonder if it's really a different thing he does sometimes or whether better mechanics just makes it all look easier.

 

And yeah, he has dramatically improved, and it's wonderful to see. IMO his decision-making hasn't affected his accuracy. But better decision-making is indeed another step he needed to make and yeah, he has stepped up there too, by a lot.

 

Myself, I'm thankful for those accuracy issues. If he'd been consistently accurate in college, he'd be in Cleveland right now throwing to Beckham Jr.

 

Remember this offseason when Jordan Palmer said his accuracy on long balls could be improved and that a lot of it was a mindset of "sticking a pin in the map." In other words, not throwing hard and powerfully, instead putting more of an arc on it and thinking less of the reciever and more of throwing it to a spot where the receiver could go and get it. And early this season he was throwing dimes on the long balls. He's regressed a bit since the first four games in that aspect, IMO, but he's still a ton better than he was last year on his distance accuracy.

Edited November 21, 2020 by Thurman#1

[JMF2006]

Nice perspective coming from his mentor.

 

Everyone always pokes fun at McD for wanting a veteran mentor in every position group but it does pay off if you get the right guy.

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

To respond to your introduction, Josh very clearly was inaccurate early,

 

While like most rookies he had problems in many areas, certainly including decision-making, his early accuracy was consistently inconsistent. He wouldn't argue, nor would his QB coaches. In fact, Josh and his coaches have often said that they addressed his mechanics, which then helped make him more consistently. And that work, and the improvement in his accuracy, continue to this day.

 

They still talk about connecting his lower and upper body, about shortening his stride, about stepping in the right direction and otherwise working on his footwork. The reason they're working on those things is because it improves his accuracy and the consistency of his accuracy. He certainly didn't need to improve his arm strength.

 

And the results have been very easily observable.

 

He really was not accurate as a rookie. Or rather, he was extremely accurate on some passes and then wildly inaccurate on others, and what that amounts to is inaccuracy with the possibility of improvement.

 

 

As someone who watched every single rookie pass from Allen multiple times and then also watched every single rookie pass by Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz and Jared Goff, I can tell you that Josh Allen’s accuracy was just fine if you're comparing him to his peer group of other 1st round QBs starting in the NFL in their 1st year.

 

The narrative that he has more to fix in the area of accuracy than other highly touted rookie NFL QBs after their rookie season was incorrect.

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Interesting about the flicking. I'll look for it. I wonder if it's really a different thing he does sometimes or whether better mechanics just makes it all look easier.

 

Yeah, watch for it.   He's not doing as much now as earlier in the season, when those 15-18 yard deep crossers were open all day.  He has such arm strength and such good mechanics throwing the ball that he doesn't need to get his body into throws nearly as much as most other QBs.  So it is literally like throwing darts for him - just a flick and the ball flies on a line.  He's very accurate on those throws. 

 

I think as soon as Allen - or any QB, really, needs to put his body into the throw to get the necessary velocity, he's introducing more variables in the throw, which means it's easier to be off a little here or there, mechanically.  Throwing darts is elbow and wrist.  Throwing footballs at max distance is legs, hips, torso, shoulders, elbow and wrist.  Unlike almost any other QB, Allen can throw 15-yard sideline passes with his elbow and wrist.  

[Buddo]

Thanks for posting the article. It's a good one.

 

Allen's 'inaccuracy' has been linked to his 'mechanics'. Iirc, Beane addressed this some time ago, in that when he watched the tape, he saw an accurate QB, whenever his feet were right. Working on his footwork, is a large part of his improvement, year on year.

 

Allen is a 'natural' thrower and with his size and long levers, it's where a lot of his arm strength comes from. I'd say he has known for a long time just how strong his arm is, but what he's also just learning, is that for someone of his arm strength, the amount of velocity/mustard/heat he puts on a football, is just as critical.

 

One of the most important aspects in all of this, is that Beane et al, decided that Allen's 'flaws' were fixable, and that the man himself had the requisite desire and smarts, to do so.

 

While I still believe that they were very naive in not having a vet option in place, ultimately, it is to the coaches and Allen's credit to the way he has developed. With the beauty being there is still more to come.

[Figster]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, watch for it.   He's not doing as much now as earlier in the season, when those 15-18 yard deep crossers were open all day.  He has such arm strength and such good mechanics throwing the ball that he doesn't need to get his body into throws nearly as much as most other QBs.  So it is literally like throwing darts for him - just a flick and the ball flies on a line.  He's very accurate on those throws. 

 

I think as soon as Allen - or any QB, really, needs to put his body into the throw to get the necessary velocity, he's introducing more variables in the throw, which means it's easier to be off a little here or there, mechanically.  Throwing darts is elbow and wrist.  Throwing footballs at max distance is legs, hips, torso, shoulders, elbow and wrist.  Unlike almost any other QB, Allen can throw 15-yard sideline passes with his elbow and wrist.  

Great observation Shaw,  the slightly side armed dart throws are very accurate IMO. The throwing style is somewhat unique and most evident in the two strongest arms in the NFL IMO. (Mahomes and Allen)

[Shaw66]

33 minutes ago, Buddo said:

Thanks for posting the article. It's a good one.

 

Allen's 'inaccuracy' has been linked to his 'mechanics'. Iirc, Beane addressed this some time ago, in that when he watched the tape, he saw an accurate QB, whenever his feet were right. Working on his footwork, is a large part of his improvement, year on year.

 

Allen is a 'natural' thrower and with his size and long levers, it's where a lot of his arm strength comes from. I'd say he has known for a long time just how strong his arm is, but what he's also just learning, is that for someone of his arm strength, the amount of velocity/mustard/heat he puts on a football, is just as critical.

 

One of the most important aspects in all of this, is that Beane et al, decided that Allen's 'flaws' were fixable, and that the man himself had the requisite desire and smarts, to do so.

 

While I still believe that they were very naive in not having a vet option in place, ultimately, it is to the coaches and Allen's credit to the way he has developed. With the beauty being there is still more to come.

Bud -

This is really description of why he was "inaccurate" (by whatever standard).  All the scouts knew about his arm.  The question was exactly what you say - could he learn to dial it up and down, in all different ways.  Just as you say.

 

And just as you say, it was Beane, among all the GMs ahead of him at #12, who figured out that Allen had it in him to do that learning.  

 

Thanks. 

[Shaw66]

13 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Exactly. You're precisely on target when you say that "inaccurate doesn't mean a QB cannot throw the ball inaccurately." Allen always had the capability, that was obvious. He just didn't do it as consistently as the others in his draft class or really as consistently as most QBs on a track towards NFL success do late in their college career.

 

Interesting about the flicking. I'll look for it. I wonder if it's really a different thing he does sometimes or whether better mechanics just makes it all look easier.

 

And yeah, he has dramatically improved, and it's wonderful to see. IMO his decision-making hasn't affected his accuracy. But better decision-making is indeed another step he needed to make and yeah, he has stepped up there too, by a lot.

 

Myself, I'm thankful for those accuracy issues. If he'd been consistently accurate in college, he'd be in Cleveland right now throwing to Beckham Jr.

 

Remember this offseason when Jordan Palmer said his accuracy on long balls could be improved and that a lot of it was a mindset of "sticking a pin in the map." In other words, not throwing hard and powerfully, instead putting more of an arc on it and thinking less of the reciever and more of throwing it to a spot where the receiver could go and get it. And early this season he was throwing dimes on the long balls. He's regressed a bit since the first four games in that aspect, IMO, but he's still a ton better than he was last year on his distance accuracy.

Thurm - I want to add something that makes sense in the way Buddo was just talking about it. 

 

I agree that Allen wasn't consistently accurate early on.  There were multiple throws that left you scratching your head, wondering why he threw it like THAT!   He needed to get consistently accurate.  The problem was not that he had mechanical flaws that had to be corrected; the problem was that he more or less didn't have any habits.  That is, he had to learn to just dial it back a bit.  

 

What Beane and McDermott and their organization figured out is that Allen was kind of a wild mustang that hadn't been tamed yet. They didn't have to break a bunch of bad habits.  They just had to teach some habits, period.   They saw that Allen really wanted to be tamed, so they didn't see the risk. 

[Augie]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yeah, watch for it.   He's not doing as much now as earlier in the season, when those 15-18 yard deep crossers were open all day.  He has such arm strength and such good mechanics throwing the ball that he doesn't need to get his body into throws nearly as much as most other QBs.  So it is literally like throwing darts for him - just a flick and the ball flies on a line.  He's very accurate on those throws. 

 

I think as soon as Allen - or any QB, really, needs to put his body into the throw to get the necessary velocity, he's introducing more variables in the throw, which means it's easier to be off a little here or there, mechanically.  Throwing darts is elbow and wrist.  Throwing footballs at max distance is legs, hips, torso, shoulders, elbow and wrist.  Unlike almost any other QB, Allen can throw 15-yard sideline passes with his elbow and wrist.  

 

I’ve been talking with my son about the difference in his motion this year. I don’t know when I first noticed it, but the word “flick” is the perfect description. I’ve become a big fan of the “flick”!  I had not found the exact word, but that is it! 

 

The dart analogy is a very good one, the less motion you have the less opportunity there is for something to go wrong. I was in a Thursday night darts league in college going all over Cincinnati and northern Kentucky to different bars every week. Friday morning classes became somewhat rare, I’m afraid.  What ya’ gonna do? 🤷‍♂️ 

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

There aren't reasonable grounds to say that Allen was accurate coming out of college, or early in Buffalo. He wasn't. He had plenty of times when he made the right read, made the right decision, and airmailed the ball or threw far in front or far behind the reciever. He did this at a much higher rate than pretty much any successful pro QB did. He had to improve his accuracy a lot. 

 

 

Compared with his peer group, which would be highly drafted rookie QBs starting in year 1, Allen’s accuracy was just fine.

 

Comparing rookie Allen with Tom Brady or Drew Brees is silly.

[transplantbillsfan]

21 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Exactly. You're precisely on target when you say that "inaccurate doesn't mean a QB cannot throw the ball inaccurately." Allen always had the capability, that was obvious. He just didn't do it as consistently as the others in his draft class or really as consistently as most QBs on a track towards NFL success do late in their college career.

 

 

As stated already, this simply isn't true.

[BillsFan619]

On 11/21/2020 at 6:56 AM, JMF2006 said:

Nice perspective coming from his mentor.

 

Everyone always pokes fun at McD for wanting a veteran mentor in every position group but it does pay off if you get the right guy.

This is another good example of veteran leadership at work.

On 11/21/2020 at 1:24 PM, Shaw66 said:

Thurm - I want to add something that makes sense in the way Buddo was just talking about it. 

 

I agree that Allen wasn't consistently accurate early on.  There were multiple throws that left you scratching your head, wondering why he threw it like THAT!   He needed to get consistently accurate.  The problem was not that he had mechanical flaws that had to be corrected; the problem was that he more or less didn't have any habits.  That is, he had to learn to just dial it back a bit.  

 

What Beane and McDermott and their organization figured out is that Allen was kind of a wild mustang that hadn't been tamed yet. They didn't have to break a bunch of bad habits.  They just had to teach some habits, period.   They saw that Allen really wanted to be tamed, so they didn't see the risk. 

Interesting thoughts. Thanks for sharing.

Edited November 23, 2020 by BillsFan619

[Punching Bag]

10 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thurm - I want to add something that makes sense in the way Buddo was just talking about it. 

 

I agree that Allen wasn't consistently accurate early on.  There were multiple throws that left you scratching your head, wondering why he threw it like THAT!   He needed to get consistently accurate.  The problem was not that he had mechanical flaws that had to be corrected; the problem was that he more or less didn't have any habits.  That is, he had to learn to just dial it back a bit.  

 

What Beane and McDermott and their organization figured out is that Allen was kind of a wild mustang that hadn't been tamed yet. They didn't have to break a bunch of bad habits.  They just had to teach some habits, period.   They saw that Allen really wanted to be tamed, so they didn't see the risk. 

 

Broncos missed a QB and a mascot.

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

As stated already, this simply isn't true.

 

 

You did state it. Unfortunately, that doesn't affect the fact that you didn't prove anything there but that when you look at film you came up with an opinion that is very very different from nearly everyone else in pretty much the NFL world.

 

You went back and looked at old film from a lot of guys. You then gave us your opinion on what happened. And that's what it was, your opinion. Which is fine. You've proven what your opinion was by going and looking at film. 

 

At the time you were doing a ton of these studies. I did a few too, particularly to combat your opinion that Tyrod was "nearly elite." In my studies I went back and looked at every Tyrod pass. And I then posted a brief five or six word summary of each play so that anyone could check my opinions and find out if I was being unreasonable by going back with my work and finding any examples of plays where my opinions were unreasonable.

 

Nobody ever posted a single example of something they found unreasonable. You kept on doing the same studies, and even though I again and again challenged you to do the same, to tell us what you thought of each play so we could find out how reasonable your opinions were by comparing individual plays, you never ever did any of this.

 

That was a year or two before you did this Allen comparison, and you still didn't do a bit of it. So nobody can check you.

 

What you've done there is prove that your opinion is that Allen wasn't more inaccurate than other QBs. And I can't speak for anyone else, but I already knew that  was your opinion. I didn't need more proof of that.

Edited November 22, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

12 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thurm - I want to add something that makes sense in the way Buddo was just talking about it. 

 

I agree that Allen wasn't consistently accurate early on.  There were multiple throws that left you scratching your head, wondering why he threw it like THAT!   He needed to get consistently accurate.  The problem was not that he had mechanical flaws that had to be corrected; the problem was that he more or less didn't have any habits.  That is, he had to learn to just dial it back a bit.  

 

What Beane and McDermott and their organization figured out is that Allen was kind of a wild mustang that hadn't been tamed yet. They didn't have to break a bunch of bad habits.  They just had to teach some habits, period.   They saw that Allen really wanted to be tamed, so they didn't see the risk. 

 

 

Shaw, it would be reasonable to think that "the problem was not that he had mechanical flaws that had to be corrected," if it weren't for the fact that we have dozens of interviews from Jordan Palmer and from Allen himself talking about the bad mechanical habits he had that they were working on correcting, specifically over-striding, stepping in the wrong direction, not rotating his hips into the throw, etc., and that it would help his accuracy.

 

Was some of the work they've done with Allen that they needed to tame him, calm him down? Absolutely. Without question. But was taming him anything to do with his accuracy? I don't think so at all. The taming part was much more towards getting him to take checkdowns when it made sense, to go with the design of the play rather than hanging on to the ball in hopes something would come open later down the field, and so on. And those changes have definitely made Allen a better QB. He's improved in so many areas it's incredible. Startling and wonderful.

 

But he also had a lot of bad mechanical habits he'd fallen into that they have largely corrected that directly affected his accuracy.

Edited November 22, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Comparing rookie Allen with Tom Brady or Drew Brees is silly.

 

 

Um, no, comparing rookie Allen with rookie Brady or Brees is just fine, as is comparing college Allen with college Brady or Brees. More, it appears I never mentioned Brady or Brees. That was you, desperately trying to acquire a point.

 

This is the post you replied to:

 

On 11/21/2020 at 4:17 PM, Thurman#1 said:

 

There aren't reasonable grounds to say that Allen was accurate coming out of college, or early in Buffalo. He wasn't. He had plenty of times when he made the right read, made the right decision, and airmailed the ball or threw far in front or far behind the reciever. He did this at a much higher rate than pretty much any successful pro QB did. He had to improve his accuracy a lot. 

 

 

Could you just quickly point out where I mentioned Brees or Brady? No, right?

 

I said, "He had plenty of times when he made the right read, made the right decision, and airmailed the ball or threw far in front or far behind the reciever. He did this at a much higher rate than pretty much any successful pro QB did." Neither Brees nor Brady were anywhere near as inaccurate as Josh - even in college or early in their careers - and that's the comparison (to "any successful pro QB") I was making. 

 

Clearly, I was also comparing him to guys much further down the QB ladder, guys like Dalton or Derek Carr. Very very few QB as inaccurate as Allen was in college and early have done well.

Edited November 22, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Shaw, it would be reasonable to think that "the problem was not that he had mechanical flaws that had to be corrected," if it weren't for the fact that we have dozens of interviews from Jordan Palmer and from Allen himself talking about the bad mechanical habits he had that they were working on correcting, specifically over-striding, stepping in the wrong direction, not rotating his hips into the throw, etc., and that it would help his accuracy.

 

Was some of the work they've done with Allen that they needed to tame him, calm him down? Absolutely. Without question. But was taming him anything to do with his accuracy? I don't think so at all. The taming part was much more towards getting him to take checkdowns when it made sense, to go with the design of the play rather than hanging on to the ball in hopes something would come open later down the field, and so on. And those changes have definitely made Allen a better QB. He's improved in so many areas it's incredible. Startling and wonderful.

 

But he also had a lot of bad mechanical habits he'd fallen into that they have largely corrected that directly affected his accuracy.

It really doesn't matter, but I don't think you're correct about this.  Jordan Palmer is a football player, not a writer.  So when he said Allen had bad mechanical happens, it's quite possible that's just poor word choice.  A football player is less likely to make distinctions in his language that capture the difference between "bad habits" and no habits.  

 

I didn't see Allen doing anything wrong consistently wrong.  I never saw a QB whose mechanics were bad.  Every throw was unique.  He didn't do the same thing wrong every time.  A habit is something that you do the same every time a situation arises, and that wasn't Allen.  Rolling left, for example, sometimes he threw a pass that only a half dozen NFL QBs throw, sometimes he was a disaster.   That's not a bad habit; that's just a situation that requires awareness and consistency.  

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You did state it. Unfortunately, that doesn't affect the fact that you didn't prove anything there but that when you look at film you came up with an opinion that is very very different from nearly everyone else in pretty much the NFL world.

 

You went back and looked at old film from a lot of guys. You then gave us your opinion on what happened. And that's what it was, your opinion. Which is fine. You've proven what your opinion was by going and looking at film. 

 

 

Pretty objective actually.

 

I broke it down by simply catchable vs uncatchable for the WR.

 

Ball within reach of the hands or not.

 

No judgment on ball placement... just if it was a catchable football or not. And ultimately Allen threw a LOWER percentage of uncatchable footballs than some surprising rookie QBs. Basically, Allen looked like every other promising 1st round rookie QB starting in year 1.

 

I can't speak for the national pundits other than to say it's hard for anyone to admit they were wrong and it's even harder when it's on national TV.

 

Just listen to Troy Aikman's analysis of Allen as he commentated on him during the KC game.

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Um, no, comparing rookie Allen with rookie Brady or Brees is just fine, as is comparing college Allen with college Brady or Brees. More, it appears I never mentioned Brady or Brees. That was you, desperately trying to acquire a point.

 

Depends on what you mean by "comparing." If it relates to an expectation of where Allen should already be, it's silly.

 

If it's the target, it's fine.

 

But Allen’s distance to that target was really no different than your typical highly touted rookie QB as far as accuracy was concerned.

 

Decision making was another matter, and THAT’S been his most drastic improvement, not accuracy.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Um, no, comparing rookie Allen with rookie Brady or Brees is just fine, as is comparing college Allen with college Brady or Brees. More, it appears I never mentioned Brady or Brees. That was you, desperately trying to acquire a point.

 

Depends on what you mean by "comparing." If it relates to an expectation of where Allen should already be, it's silly.

 

If it's the target, it's fine.

 

But Allen’s distance to that target was really no different than your typical highly touted rookie QB as far as accuracy was concerned.

 

Decision making was another matter, and THAT’S been his most drastic improvement, not accuracy.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Depends on what you mean by "comparing." If it relates to an expectation of where Allen should already be, it's silly.

 

If it's the target, it's fine.

 

But Allen’s distance to that target was really no different than your typical highly touted rookie QB as far as accuracy was concerned.

 

Decision making was another matter, and THAT’S been his most drastic improvement, not accuracy.

 

 

 

 

Yeah, I get it.

 

You have an opinion, and nothing else. And you're telling us that opinion. Which is fine. But again, we knew your opinion before.

 

Thing is, other than that opinion of yours, backed up by ... well, your opinion, there isn't any evidence or really anyone else saying the same thing.

 

Allen had accuracy problems, which he has really successfully addressed. You don't think so. Both of those things are just fine.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Pretty objective actually.

 

I broke it down by simply catchable vs uncatchable for the WR.

 

Ball within reach of the hands or not.

 

No judgment on ball placement... just if it was a catchable football or not. And ultimately Allen threw a LOWER percentage of uncatchable footballs than some surprising rookie QBs. Basically, Allen looked like every other promising 1st round rookie QB starting in year 1.

 

I can't speak for the national pundits other than to say it's hard for anyone to admit they were wrong and it's even harder when it's on national TV.

 

Just listen to Troy Aikman's analysis of Allen as he commentated on him during the KC game.

 

Depends on what you mean by "comparing." If it relates to an expectation of where Allen should already be, it's silly.

 

If it's the target, it's fine.

 

But Allen’s distance to that target was really no different than your typical highly touted rookie QB as far as accuracy was concerned.

 

Decision making was another matter, and THAT’S been his most drastic improvement, not accuracy.

 

 

 

 

First, dividing things up by how many catchable and uncatchable footballs a guy throws is in no way measuring his accuracy. Accuracy is far far more nuanced than that, it has to do with how well you hit a guy in stride, how well you lead him away from defenders, whether you hit him between the numbers and so on.

 

You're not measuring accuracy there. You're measuring whether or not some guy on the internet thinks your balls are catchable or not. And that's fine, it's just quite far from accuracy.

 

As for whether your method is objective, it couldn't possibly be clearer that it is absolutely not. Saying that your method was objective is a joke.

 

The fact is that we often have people on these forums arguing whether the ball in a given case is catchable or not and disagreeing violently. It's an opinion. Now, some cases are obvious and everyone would get them the same, but many are not. Many are very subjective. And it's a simple fact that beliefs, opinions and prejudices affect perception.

 

You could've made your analysis bulletproof by pointing out what you thought of which plays. I challenged you many times to do that. You refused, for reasons that seemed pretty obvious to me and many others.

 

And again, you're a guy who did many of these little studies, all of which seemed to produce results showing that Tyrod was a franchise quarterback back when that's what you believed. Which was basically the whole time he was here, except the long period of time when you thought he'd gone far beyond a franchise QB and was "near-elite."

 

If you want to continue believing that Allen was as accurate as others, that's fine, but you have never given us any reason to believe it. You're pretty much alone on that.

 

He certainly has improved a great deal on decision making as well, but that's not that unusual. Nearly every QB coming into the NFL takes quite a while to improve that, and if they don't, they fail. Impovement of deicision-making isn't that big a deal, as it's common among guys who become successful.

 

Improvement of accuracy is far far less common. Many pundits, coaches and scouts have argued that it's not possible to do. That argument never made sense, as plenty of QBs have improved accuracy to some degree, from Brady and Rodgers on to many others. But very very few have improved it to a really large degree, which is I think what those pundits are really talking about. Luckily for us, Allen is one of those very very few exceptions who have made really large improvements in accuracy.

 

But yeah, you're right, decision-making, too.

 

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, I get it.

 

You have an opinion, and nothing else. And you're telling us that opinion. Which is fine. But again, we knew your opinion before.

 

Thing is, other than that opinion of yours, backed up by ... well, your opinion, there isn't any evidence or really anyone else saying the same thing.

 

Allen had accuracy problems, which he has really successfully addressed. You don't think so. Both of those things are just fine.

 

 

 

Same ole Thurm.

 

Glad to know you haven't changed.

 

If you want to dismiss the exercise then do it by watching every single pass from all 7 of those QBs in their rookie years, collate the data, and let's compare.  I make the methodology as objective as possible without considering ball placement... you can find it here:

 

I doubt you'll find anything other than the fact that Allen was no less consistently accurate than your typical NFL rookie 1st round QB starting in year 1

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

First, dividing things up by how many catchable and uncatchable footballs a guy throws is in no way measuring his accuracy. Accuracy is far far more nuanced than that, it has to do with how well you hit a guy in stride, how well you lead him away from defenders, whether you hit him between the numbers and so on.

 

And yet it's pretty obvious that any ball that is UNCATCHABLE would also be inaccurate and Allen threw a lower percentage of UNCATCHABLE passes (when excluding Throwaways) than Wentz, Watson, Mayfield, Watson, Jackson, and Rosen.

 

I'm guessing those would be those "wildly inaccurate" passes you referred to with Allen.  If you actually watched him and watched all those other rookie QBs their rookie years, you would realize that Allen was not any less consistently inaccurate (since that's a term I'm sure you'd agree one doesn't need to quibble with as there's no variance of an uncatchable ball with good ball placement

 

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

You're not measuring accuracy there. You're measuring whether or not some guy on the internet thinks your balls are catchable or not. And that's fine, it's just quite far from accuracy.

 

Not when you remember that any uncatchable pass is also obviously inaccurate.

 

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

As for whether your method is objective, it couldn't possibly be clearer that it is absolutely not. Saying that your method was objective is a joke.

 

The fact is that we often have people on these forums arguing whether the ball in a given case is catchable or not and disagreeing violently. It's an opinion. Now, some cases are obvious and everyone would get them the same, but many are not. Many are very subjective. And it's a simple fact that beliefs, opinions and prejudices affect perception.

 

Passes within reach of at least one of the WRs hands is a catchable football.  Fingertips and beyond is not.

 

That's it.  It's significantly less difficult to evaluate that than it is ball placement.

 

Of course there's some subjectivity.  But I used those same measurements for every single QB, so the standards  for the others were the same.

 

11 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

You could've made your analysis bulletproof by pointing out what you thought of which plays. I challenged you many times to do that. You refused, for reasons that seemed pretty obvious to me and many others.

 

What I thought of which plays?  I provide examples in that thread.

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

On 11/22/2020 at 4:31 AM, Thurman#1 said:

Um, no, comparing rookie Allen with rookie Brady or Brees is just fine, as is comparing college Allen with college Brady or Brees. More, it appears I never mentioned Brady or Brees. That was you, desperately trying to acquire a point.

so typical of him if I must say. 
 

He didn’t like Josh at first and now it seems he’s heat over heals with praise 

And why keep reposting the this?  

[Thurman#1]

On 11/22/2020 at 11:58 PM, Shaw66 said:

It really doesn't matter, but I don't think you're correct about this.  Jordan Palmer is a football player, not a writer.  So when he said Allen had bad mechanical happens, it's quite possible that's just poor word choice.  A football player is less likely to make distinctions in his language that capture the difference between "bad habits" and no habits.  

 

I didn't see Allen doing anything wrong consistently wrong.  I never saw a QB whose mechanics were bad.  Every throw was unique.  He didn't do the same thing wrong every time.  A habit is something that you do the same every time a situation arises, and that wasn't Allen.  Rolling left, for example, sometimes he threw a pass that only a half dozen NFL QBs throw, sometimes he was a disaster.   That's not a bad habit; that's just a situation that requires awareness and consistency.  

 

 

No, Shaw.

 

It really was not even close to a misunderstanding. He didn't just say that Allen had mechanical problems. He went into detail over and over again about what those mechanical problems were and what he was doing to fix them.

 

As one of several examples, here is an excerpt of a pre-draft interview with Jordan Palmer, but after Palmer had spent months working with him. And it's very very clear that he sees at least one very very specific problem (though he's talked about several others at different interviews at different times as Josh developed.

 

 

 

"Of course, the big question with Allen is his accuracy and his 56.2 completion percentage, which scares the heck out of offensive coaches. But guess what?

" 'We've fixed it,'' said Palmer.

"He said with Allen's poor completion percentage 'there are two ways to look at it: one, what he's doing mechanically, and then two what's happening around him, receivers and the concepts and the coverages that they're seeing and there's a lot of complexities that go into both of those.'

" 'From a mechanics standpoint you have to be athletic enough take an old muscle memory and create a new muscle memory. Take something that was an old habit and replace it with the new habit. With Josh, it was tied to his base and kind of where his feet are placed and how short his front stride is. And so making a small adjustment has made a huge impact.''

He said "the growth in accuracy that you're going to see throughout the draft training process and throughout his transition into the NFL and to being a franchise starter, is going to be tied to that.''

 

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2018/03/jordan_palmer_on_browns_candid.html

 

He's referring specifically to the low completion percentage when he talks about other things than accuracy, like "... what's happening around him, reciever and the concepts and coverages ..."

But he very specifically addresses accuracy, specifically in terms of replacing bad old habits with good new ones. There was no mistake in communication here. Palmer is a very erudite, well-spoken guy, specific and educated in what he's talking about.

 

More:  "When the ball comes out of a guy's hand crappy on a good player, it's the sequencing,'' said Palmer. "You actually have to fix the sequencing and build muscle memory around that. If he has a bad throw, he'll follow it with a really good one because he has the fix.''

 

And again, this is one of several times he's mentioned various mechanical problems he and Josh were working on and changing.

Edited November 25, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 11/24/2020 at 6:31 AM, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

so typical of him if I must say. 
 

He didn’t like Josh at first and now it seems he’s heat over heals with praise 

And why keep reposting the this?  

 

 

 

Um, no, Transplant was the guy who hated him with a wild and unceasing passion. Until about a week after the Bills drafted him.

 

As I said earlier in this thread, and Trans will back me up - because he was arguing with me telling me that success by Allen was not even a possibility - I thought he had a good chance to succeed. I wasn't convinced he would, but I thought he had a good chance, and thought him being a top ten guy was reasonable.

 

So, nice try.

[Thurman#1]

On 11/24/2020 at 5:58 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

And yet it's pretty obvious that any ball that is UNCATCHABLE would also be inaccurate and Allen threw a lower percentage of UNCATCHABLE passes (when excluding Throwaways) than Wentz, Watson, Mayfield, Watson, Jackson, and Rosen.

 

I'm guessing those would be those "wildly inaccurate" passes you referred to with Allen.  If you actually watched him and watched all those other rookie QBs their rookie years, you would realize that Allen was not any less consistently inaccurate (since that's a term I'm sure you'd agree one doesn't need to quibble with as there's no variance of an uncatchable ball with good ball placement

 

Not when you remember that any uncatchable pass is also obviously inaccurate.

 

Passes within reach of at least one of the WRs hands is a catchable football.  Fingertips and beyond is not.

 

That's it.  It's significantly less difficult to evaluate that than it is ball placement.

 

Of course there's some subjectivity.  But I used those same measurements for every single QB, so the standards  for the others were the same.

 

What I thought of which plays?  I provide examples in that thread.

 

 

 

You can kid yourself as you often do - remember how you loooooooooooooooooooooved Tyrod, Trans? Remember "near-elite"? - but the idea catchable and uncatchable, no matter how you set up your criteria, is subjective. The fact that we regularly have arguments on here about dozens of catches a year makes that very clear. It's subjective as hell. Arguing otherwise is kidding yourself.

 

And again, catchable and uncatchable doesn't particularly address accuracy. It's a much easier bar to get over. Sure, uncatchable balls are inaccurate. But Drew Brees, as an example of a really accurate guy, would call tons of catchable balls inaccurate failures. And he'd be right. A ball that forces a guy with a chance to get YAC to stop is inaccurate. A ball that forces a guy to reach back on a play when nobody's ahead is inaccurate even if it's caught.

 

In many cases a catchable ball just has to get into a target that's maybe 8 - 10 feet wide and 10 feet high. Not always. If the coverage is extremely tight it can be smaller but very often we're talking a huge target, so big that hitting it doesn't begin to show accuracy.

 

And yeah, you provided examples, but that proves nothing. When I did my studies, I annotated every play. It's the way to show you're working hard at avoiding confirmation bias. And a guy convinced for three years that Tyrod was a franchise QB is no stranger to confirmation bias. You give a few examples, but we don't know on how many others you let your biases take over. There's no way to know. I'd been riding you on that years before you began this study. You weren't willing to make it bulletproof. The reason why is what observers have to look at.

 

It's why what you have there is a wonderful collection of your opinion. And again, nothing wrong with that. Opinions are fine, whether they make sense or not. Well, you've said much the same thing your past few posts. Fair enough, nothing wrong with that either, but anyone who's watched you talk Buffalo QBs knows that you will never not get the last word even if it means a thread drags on till it's necrotized.

 

Me, I used to crack myself up by urging you on. But I'm over that.

 

 

Edited November 25, 2020 by Thurman#1

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Um, no, Transplant was the guy who hated him with a wild and unceasing passion. Until about a week after the Bills drafted him.

 

As I said earlier in this thread, and Trans will back me up - because he was arguing with me telling me that success by Allen was not even a possibility - I thought he had a good chance to succeed. I wasn't convinced he would, but I thought he had a good chance, and thought him being a top ten guy was reasonable.

 

So, nice try.

 

No,  That ^ was my point.  From hate to exuberance. 

 

There are literally a dozen Josh threads going you and Trans are welcome to partake on them you know.

 

There really isn't anything to prove. Josh is good. Period.  Anyone that says he isn't is being a tool.  

Edited November 25, 2020 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

 

No,  That ^ was my point.  From hate to exuberance. 

 

There are literally a dozen Josh threads going you and Trans are welcome to partake on them you know.

 

There really isn't anything to prove. Josh is good. Period.  Anyone that says he isn't is being a tool.  

 

I don't know if you actually felt this way and felt you were the only person who felt this way, but Thurm is right for once.

 

Pretty well documented on here that I loathed the Josh Allen pick on draft day and quickly jumped on the pick after we drafted him.

 

I get that it all has to be about you.  But you definitely weren't the only one who went from "hate to exuberance."

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You can kid yourself as you often do - remember how you loooooooooooooooooooooved Tyrod, Trans? Remember "near-elite"? - but the idea catchable and uncatchable, no matter how you set up your criteria, is subjective. The fact that we regularly have arguments on here about dozens of catches a year makes that very clear. It's subjective as hell. Arguing otherwise is kidding yourself.

 

I remember.  I was wrong about my evaluation about Taylor on the whole.

 

We all have our misses.

 

None of our exercises with Taylor were broken down by the simple measures here.  We were playing around with ball placement, which was certainly more subjective.

 

Quote

 

And again, catchable and uncatchable doesn't particularly address accuracy. It's a much easier bar to get over. Sure, uncatchable balls are inaccurate. But Drew Brees, as an example of a really accurate guy, would call tons of catchable balls inaccurate failures. And he'd be right. A ball that forces a guy with a chance to get YAC to stop is inaccurate. A ball that forces a guy to reach back on a play when nobody's ahead is inaccurate even if it's caught.

 

Catchable vs. Uncatchable measuring accuracy is an entire debate you'll  find in that thread.

 

But once again, an UNCATCHABLE ball is obviously inaccurate.  And those are pretty easy to measure.

 

Quote

 

In many cases a catchable ball just has to get into a target that's maybe 8 - 10 feet wide and 10 feet high. Not always. If the coverage is extremely tight it can be smaller but very often we're talking a huge target, so big that hitting it doesn't begin to show accuracy.

 

But measuring all those passes more than 8-10 feet wide and over 10 feet wide does.

 

Measuring those really bad passes  equals those "wildly inaccurate" throws Josh Allen was supposedly so much more prone to than all those other rookie QBs.

 

And even you can go and look for just those throws and I'm confident even you will notice that Allen is not any more consistently "wildly inaccurate" than other QBs.

 

As for those other passes that are "catchable," all I can say is: try the exercise rather than pursuing your Ad Hominem attack.

 

Quote

 

And yeah, you provided examples, but that proves nothing. When I did my studies, I annotated every play. It's the way to show you're working hard at avoiding confirmation bias. And a guy convinced for three years that Tyrod was a franchise QB is no stranger to confirmation bias. You give a few examples, but we don't know on how many others you let your biases take over. There's no way to know. I'd been riding you on that years before you began this study. You weren't willing to make it bulletproof. The reason why is what observers have to look at.

 

I have my plays mostly annotated and noted.   I did that largely in loving memory of you. Do you want to ask me about an individual play?  

 

Quote

 

It's why what you have there is a wonderful collection of your opinion. And again, nothing wrong with that. Opinions are fine, whether they make sense or not. Well, you've said much the same thing your past few posts. Fair enough, nothing wrong with that either, but anyone who's watched you talk Buffalo QBs knows that you will never not get the last word even if it means a thread drags on till it's necrotized.

 

Me, I used to crack myself up by urging you on. But I'm over that.

 

 

Ahhhhh....  showing your stripes I see.

 

Always thought you were a bit of a troll whose primary goal was to obfuscate.... glad you finally admit it.  

 

Don't know if you celebrate Thanksgiving as a transplant in Japan, but have a good one if you do. 

Edited November 25, 2020 by transplantbillsfan

[foreboding]

I remember he and Romo talking about how critical it was that Josh move his torso properly as well. The torso needs to follow the head, even when he cannot step into his throws or get the feet in the right spot, the  head and torso are now connected and it makes every single throw better.

 

Also, you guys mentioned flicking the ball. To me Aaron Rogers is the prototype for that. Seems like at least half his throws are those tight little flicks and he ends up with his hand pointing toward the target, like playing darts. Josh has certainly developed that throw.