So what the hell was with Milano

[Mr. Wonderful]

5 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Glass isn’t healthy yet. 
 

and this was a game he didn’t need to play. 

 

I thought that name was reserved for Tim Connnolly.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Started his 2nd year 2018.  Missed 3 games at end of season with broken leg

Missed 1 game last year with hammy.

Missed 1 game this year with hammy and 2 with torn pec. 

 

 

 

You are selling his injury history short.

 

He was named starter over Phillip Humber in December of 2017.........and promptly popped a hammy in Miami and his season was toast.........then missing the Jax playoff game.

 

So he has finished 2 of his first 3 seasons on the shelf.

 

And it's not just the 8 entirely missed games versus just 37 career starts..........it's also the portions of games missed and games he sometimes had to play at limited capacity.

 

Maybe he learns how to stay healthier.........it happens.........see Eric Wood..........but if they extend him I think they need to assume at this point of his career that he will miss at minimum 1/4 of the snaps that you would want him to play because he has missed 18% of his starts plus the time in games where he was injured etc..

 

That kind of risk requires more than a 25% market adjustment because the odds are that the undersize player is going to get worn down even more with time.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Joe B has his full snap count and details in an Athletic article:

 

Milano took only 15 snaps, all coming on third downs, fourth downs and at the end of each half. He provided excellent run support, and his read on fourth-and-1 helped force the running back wide to get the Jets off the field. He was also solid in coverage, and when asked to, threatened the Jets as a blitzer. The statistics backed up how much better the Bills were when Milano was on the field. The Jets gained 190 yards total. They gained only 16 of those yards when Milano was playing. The Jets tallied, on average, only 1.1 yards per play when the Bills used Milano. While that’s very likely an unsustainable figure, it simply reinforces the point about Milano’s wide-ranging importance to the Bills’ defensive operation.

-used in both halves

-15 total snaps out of 51 offensive snaps

-3rd down, 4th down, and end-of-half

[Punching Bag]

7 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

I feel like I speak for the entire board when I say......What?!?

 

 

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Joe B has his full snap count and details in an Athletic article:

 

Milano took only 15 snaps, all coming on third downs, fourth downs and at the end of each half. He provided excellent run support, and his read on fourth-and-1 helped force the running back wide to get the Jets off the field. He was also solid in coverage, and when asked to, threatened the Jets as a blitzer. The statistics backed up how much better the Bills were when Milano was on the field. The Jets gained 190 yards total. They gained only 16 of those yards when Milano was playing. The Jets tallied, on average, only 1.1 yards per play when the Bills used Milano. While that’s very likely an unsustainable figure, it simply reinforces the point about Milano’s wide-ranging importance to the Bills’ defensive operation.

-used in both halves

-15 total snaps out of 51 offensive snaps

-3rd down, 4th down, and end-of-half

 

 

Stop confusing his irrational rant with facts.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

You are selling his injury history short.

 

He was named starter over Phillip Humber in December of 2017.........and promptly popped a hammy in Miami and his season was toast.........then missing the Jax playoff game.

 

It's true that Milano was injured and "out" for the Jax playoff game in 2017, but the "named starter...and promptly popped a hammy" makes it sound as though he was injured right after he was named starters.  The publicly available snap counts show that he played his normal "starter" number of snaps through the Miami game that ended the season, and the gamelog showed he was playing on the last series of the final game of the season.

 

 

Quote

So he has finished 2 of his first 3 seasons on the shelf.

 

And it's not just the 8 entirely missed games versus just 37 career starts..........it's also the portions of games missed and games he sometimes had to play at limited capacity.

 

Maybe he learns how to stay healthier.........it happens.........see Eric Wood..........but if they extend him I think they need to assume at this point of his career that he will miss at minimum 1/4 of the snaps that you would want him to play because he has missed 18% of his starts plus the time in games where he was injured etc..

 

That kind of risk requires more than a 25% market adjustment because the odds are that the undersize player is going to get worn down even more with time.

 

It's certainly possible that he'll wear down more with time, although I'm not sure there's a clear correlation of size with durability in LB

 

When considering durability, it may also be fair to point out that he's played in 49 games - in 2017 before he started, he was playing a heavy load of teams, which certainly involves wear and tear.

 

Just out of curiousity, if you look at 10 other OLBs around the league, how many games have they missed due to injury?  For example, in Von Miller's first 4 years in the league, he missed 8 games.  In the last 4 years, not counting this year's "covid opt out", CJ Moseley has missed what, 17 games? 

 

Yeah, it would be great if important players never missed games, but it's a violent sport and there's an element of chance.

[billspro]

Milano is the key to this defence 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, billspro said:

Milano is the key to this defence 

 

Is trending to look that way

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

Ok. Minus like a very small percentage of the board apparently. You do know that we’re talking about Matt Milano right? The LB? He’s hurt a lot? Is this ringing any bells? This is getting kinda weird...

 

 

It's not all that small a percentage. He's out sometimes. But the guy who said it put in the caveat, "except for his broken leg." And looked at in that light, he's right that he hasn't missed all that many games.

 

Your snap count chart doesn't tell the tale you think it does, IMO. In his rookie year he played all 16 games but mostly wasn't starting. First three weeks, zero defensive snaps, but played STs. And after those first three weeks he had a lot of weeks where he saw as many STs snaps as he did defensive ones. He played 10 defensive snaps, but also 23 STs snaps (Week 9), or 14 defensive snaps and 19 STs snaps (Week 10) or 25 defensive snaps and 20 STs (Week 11) or 13 defensive and 23 STs snaps (Week 12).   His lack of defensive snaps wasn't only caused by injury that year, but also by him being a rookie.

 

Take out the broken leg in 2018 and he played nearly all year. Last year he played 86% of the snaps and missed one game. It isn't all that terrible. Yes, this year he's missed a bit. But it hasn't been as much over the course of his career as you seem to be playing it up to be.

 

Any is too much, but it hasn't been overwhelming, IMO, particularly if you leave out the broken leg.

Edited October 26, 2020 by Thurman#1

[nucci]

12 hours ago, Maynard said:

On a pitch count is all.

snap count. 

[Gugny]

13 hours ago, Brennan Huff said:

Ok. Minus like a very small percentage of the board apparently. You do know that we’re talking about Matt Milano right? The LB? He’s hurt a lot? Is this ringing any bells? This is getting kinda weird...

 

What's weird is how you're digging your heels in.  I feel I speak for the entire board when I say you were wrong ... admit it ... move on.

[Brennan Huff]

11 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

What's weird is how you're digging your heels in.  I feel I speak for the entire board when I say you were wrong ... admit it ... move on.

No. I’m not wrong. And it’s also been brought up that nobody speaks for the entire board. Now you can move on and enjoy your Monday 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, billspro said:

Milano is the key to this defence 

 

The other key is consistent pass rush. We got some yesterday..... but the worry is that we have only managed to get it in 3 games this year - twice vs Jets and once vs Miami. We did a decent job first half of the Rams game as well in fairness but they adjusted at half time and used our aggressiveness against us.

 

How do we get pass rush against the better olines is a question we need to find an answer to - even for next week. Despite getting bashed yesterday the Patriots oline only gave up two sacks and one of those was on the very final play of the game.

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

It's true that Milano was injured and "out" for the Jax playoff game in 2017, but the "named starter...and promptly popped a hammy" makes it sound as though he was injured right after he was named starters.  The publicly available snap counts show that he played his normal "starter" number of snaps through the Miami game that ended the season, and the gamelog showed he was playing on the last series of the final game of the season.

 

 

 

It's certainly possible that he'll wear down more with time, although I'm not sure there's a clear correlation of size with durability in LB

 

When considering durability, it may also be fair to point out that he's played in 49 games - in 2017 before he started, he was playing a heavy load of teams, which certainly involves wear and tear.

 

Just out of curiousity, if you look at 10 other OLBs around the league, how many games have they missed due to injury?  For example, in Von Miller's first 4 years in the league, he missed 8 games.  In the last 4 years, not counting this year's "covid opt out", CJ Moseley has missed what, 17 games? 

 

Yeah, it would be great if important players never missed games, but it's a violent sport and there's an element of chance.

 

 

 

Matt Milano made 4 starts after being named starter in 2017..........then he missed his first with injury.

 

That has proven to be in line with what you could expect from him thru the just 45 games that he has been at the top of the depth chart for his position.

 

CJ Moseley started 77 of his first 80 career chances .........96%.

 

What's more......in just Moseley's first 3 seasons alone he played 3100 defensive snaps.............Matt Milano in year 4 is just at 2250.

 

That's an enormous disparity.

 

As I said, it's not just the missed starts with Matt Milano.......he also misses A LOT of snaps in between.  

 

There is some denial about Milano's injury history and I do think some of it is because of just the "basic" box score scouting of his injuries.

 

As in "He was active this many games out of this many"  like that's the entire story.    

 

That allows for the miss of the injury that cost him the playoff game.  

 

It allows one to lump a 6 month broken leg injury into his myriad of muscle injuries.

 

It allows one to not take into account the relatively high % of defensive snaps missed etc..

 

I am not saying Matt Milano is Mr. Glass but he most definitely has been injury prone and I am not sure why people try to downplay it so much.