3rdnlng Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 35 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said: it’s ok to keep spamming the same message? No, it is not. For the first time ever here at PPP I've considered reporting someone. This is a habit of his. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, TakeYouToTasker said: Here’s the thing though, most people, nearly all in fact, don’t understand the complexities of tax filings far less complex than the President’s. Heck, most people don’t understand a document as simple and straightforward as a 1099R. They literally have no ability to comprehend them, and so their understanding becomes whatever a hostile press tells them their understanding is. In this case they buried the fact that his tax filings conclusively reveal no troublesome financial dealings with Russia, but pushed the false notion that the President doesn’t pay taxes. There is no political upside to releasing them, since the media won’t cover them honestly anyhow. No one has seen the filings so to say conclusively is a stretch. It's not like he would disclose under Other Income - Bribe from Putin. Which is why I said filings won't show anything bad until the SDNY investigation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TakeYouToTasker Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Just now, Backintheday544 said: No one has seen the filings so to say conclusively is a stretch. It's not like he would disclose under Other Income - Bribe from Putin. Which is why I said filings won't show anything bad until the SDNY investigation. The Mueller investigation already had full access to them. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Big Blitz said: I told you. He just wants the base fired up. He did that. And its 47% and that will be enough again. Unless they get enough fake ballots. Well, 52-47 (with one point to minor candidates) is very unlikely to result in an electoral college win. So it's a strategy, and probably all he's got (since you ain't gonna budge the > 50% who think he's the worst thing since Andrew Johnson), but it's a super longshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said: Now there's a stretch. @Backintheday, would you expect to see that level of granularity in these filings? No. There is not. Americans shouldn't look at tax filings to find a bad I gotcha. They should look at them for things like conflicts of interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: Like Biden? Biden has won multiple election to the senate. The point is Trumps base isn't going to vote for Biden it's never going to happen. He needs people in the middle and people in the middle want a President who knows the answer to "Do you disavow white supremacists?" is "Yes." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Backintheday544 said: No. There is not. Americans shouldn't look at tax filings to find a bad I gotcha. They should look at them for things like conflicts of interest. Thanks. That's what I thought. Lots of bases for further questions (that's why I suspect he's been hiding them) but not that damning in and of themselves (other than the embarrassing fact that he paid little or no taxes in 10 of 15 years) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 minute ago, TakeYouToTasker said: The Mueller investigation already had full access to them. They weren't auditing them and I've said it a couple times, Americans don't need tax returns to search for fraud, they need it to see where income comes from and conflict of interest. We still hear how did the Clinton's get all that money? Well you can look at their return and see their royalty income from speaking and writing. It doesn't show if they fudged deductions or are hiding illegal money from the Clinton Foundation, but we can at least see where the income is from per their word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Just now, Warcodered said: Biden has won multiple election to the senate. The point is Trumps base isn't going to vote for Biden it's never going to happen. He needs people in the middle and people in the middle want a President who knows the answer to "Do you disavow white supremacists?" is "Yes." And he did win on the Obama ticket twice. It's not like he's a perpetual loser even though his prior presidential runs were busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Sherlock Holmes said: He might as well of had his hand up Biden's ass because he was his puppet master... Softballs to Biden Attacking Trump Rescuing Biden when he had a fork in him Talking over Trump every time he began answering Actually debating Trump like he was his opponent Allowing Biden to retort everything but never letting Trump respond Guess what. Millions of others saw this to. And Team Trump knew that would happen. That plays into his bull in a China shop approach. Mitt played smart nice and reasonable. Didn't matter did it. And I thought he outclassed Obama at each debate. Didn't matter. No one really liked him. The moderators will not ever let their guy or gal hang out to dry. And the media will tell you the next day why no matter what their guy won. I thought Kerry beat Bush pretty good in debate 1. Didn't matter. They only matter if you have a nation full of undecideds. And we just don't. These debates are officially outdated. Trump uses them for the right reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Big Blitz said: Guess what. Millions of others saw this to. And Team Trump knew that would happen. That plays into his bull in a China shop approach. Mitt played smart nice and reasonable. Didn't matter did it. And I thought he outclassed Obama at each debate. Didn't matter. No one really liked him. The moderators will not ever let their guy or gal hang out to dry. And the media will tell you the next day why no matter what their guy won. I thought Kerry beat Bush pretty good in debate 1. Didn't matter. They only matter if you have a nation full of undecideds. And we just don't. These debates are officially outdated. Trump uses them for the right reasons. Agreed. Debates aren't really needed anymore with the level of access.and information the American population have now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Warcodered said: Biden has won multiple election to the senate. The point is Trumps base isn't going to vote for Biden it's never going to happen. He needs people in the middle and people in the middle want a President who knows the answer to "Do you disavow white supremacists?" is "Yes." No. This year they want to know why their kids arent in school and they can't get within 6 feet of anyone anywhere but their governors can. Wallace didnt really seem to care about that. Just that Trump has killed 200K people......not saved 2 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 (edited) From fivethirtyeight.com This is, of course, a rough calculation of how individual battleground states will likely fall out based on the national popular vote. But it does show that a strategy of getting 47% of the popular vote (apparently Trump's strategy) isn't such a good one, but it's all he's got. NOTE: Trump got 46.1 percent of the popular vote in 2016. Almost 5% went to minor parties. That won't happen this year since there is almost no support for any of the minor party candidates. To be favored, Biden must win the popular vote by 3+ points Biden’s chances of victory at different national popular vote scenarios, plus the likelihood of those scenarios, according to the FiveThirtyEight presidential model as of 9:15 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 28 NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE SCENARIO SCENARIO CHANCE BIDEN CHANCE IN SCENARIO Trump wins popular vote 10% 0.8% Biden wins by 0 to 1 points 3 7.4 Biden wins by 1 to 2 points 4 19.7 Biden wins by 2 to 3 points 5 44.9 Biden wins by 3 to 4 points 6 69.6 Biden wins by 4 to 5 points 6 88.4 Biden wins by 5 to 6 points 7 96.0 Biden wins by 6 to 7 points 7 98.9 Biden wins by 7 to 8 points 7 99.8 Biden wins by 8 or more points 43 100.0 Edited September 30, 2020 by The Frankish Reich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 46 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said: it’s ok to keep spamming the same message? That's all he ever does. Same few, stupid comments. Over and over. Put him on ignore. Pure addition by subtraction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: No. This year they want to know why their kids arent in school and they can't get within 6 feet of anyone anywhere but their governors can. Wallace didnt really seem to care about that. Just that Trump has killed 200K people......not saved 2 million. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Just now, IDBillzFan said: That's all he ever does. Same few, stupid comments. Over and over. Put him on ignore. Pure addition by subtraction. He's saying it over and over again, but I think and this is my opinion.... We know the the policy points going into it. The debate lets us see the person and what they stand for. If you were undecided going in, can you vote for a person that had such a hard time and eventually couldn't condemn white nationalism? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Blitz Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said: From fivethirtyeight.com This is, of course, a rough calculation of how individual battleground states will likely fall out based on the national popular vote. But it does show that a strategy of getting 47% of the popular vote (apparently Trump's strategy) isn't such a good one, but it's all he's got. To be favored, Biden must win the popular vote by 3+ points Biden’s chances of victory at different national popular vote scenarios, plus the likelihood of those scenarios, according to the FiveThirtyEight presidential model as of 9:15 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 28 NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE SCENARIO SCENARIO CHANCE BIDEN CHANCE IN SCENARIO Trump wins popular vote 10% 0.8% Biden wins by 0 to 1 points 3 7.4 Biden wins by 1 to 2 points 4 19.7 Biden wins by 2 to 3 points 5 44.9 Biden wins by 3 to 4 points 6 69.6 Biden wins by 4 to 5 points 6 88.4 Biden wins by 5 to 6 points 7 96.0 Biden wins by 6 to 7 points 7 98.9 Biden wins by 7 to 8 points 7 99.8 Biden wins by 8 or more points 43 100.0 Yup. Biden can win by 4 and its basically 50/50. He lost to Hillary by 2 million plus. He can lose by 5 million and still win: "But the concentration of demographic change in noncompetitive states, particularly California and Texas, threatens to further widen the chasm between the popular vote and the Electoral College, easing his path. Trump could once again win with less than 47 percent, a victory threshold far below the share of the popular vote the Democratic nominee might need. The ultimate nightmare scenario for Democrats might look something like this: Trump loses the popular vote by more than 5 million ballots, and the Democratic nominee converts Michigan and Pennsylvania back to blue. But Trump wins re-election by two Electoral votes by barely hanging onto Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Maine's 2nd Congressional District — one of the whitest and least college-educated districts in the country." https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/how-trump-could-lose-5-million-votes-still-win-2020-n1031601 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Backintheday544 Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 1 minute ago, Big Blitz said: Yup. Biden can win by 4 and its basically 50/50. He lost to Hillary by 2 million plus. He can lose by 5 million and still win: "But the concentration of demographic change in noncompetitive states, particularly California and Texas, threatens to further widen the chasm between the popular vote and the Electoral College, easing his path. Trump could once again win with less than 47 percent, a victory threshold far below the share of the popular vote the Democratic nominee might need. The ultimate nightmare scenario for Democrats might look something like this: Trump loses the popular vote by more than 5 million ballots, and the Democratic nominee converts Michigan and Pennsylvania back to blue. But Trump wins re-election by two Electoral votes by barely hanging onto Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Maine's 2nd Congressional District — one of the whitest and least college-educated districts in the country." https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/how-trump-could-lose-5-million-votes-still-win-2020-n1031601 AZ is going Biden it looks like. FL, NC are who knows. WI seems good for Biden but it was one of the few states final polls were way wrong about. That Maine 2nd District may decide things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Frankish Reich Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Big Blitz said: Yup. Biden can win by 4 and its basically 50/50. He lost to Hillary by 2 million plus. He can lose by 5 million and still win: "But the concentration of demographic change in noncompetitive states, particularly California and Texas, threatens to further widen the chasm between the popular vote and the Electoral College, easing his path. Trump could once again win with less than 47 percent, a victory threshold far below the share of the popular vote the Democratic nominee might need. The ultimate nightmare scenario for Democrats might look something like this: Trump loses the popular vote by more than 5 million ballots, and the Democratic nominee converts Michigan and Pennsylvania back to blue. But Trump wins re-election by two Electoral votes by barely hanging onto Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Maine's 2nd Congressional District — one of the whitest and least college-educated districts in the country." https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-election/how-trump-could-lose-5-million-votes-still-win-2020-n1031601 The problem for Trump on these numbers: third party candidates got almost 5% of the vote in 2016. They will probably get more on the order of 1% this year. Hard to imagine that those people will break for Trump in anything more than, say, a 2 (Biden) to 1 (Trump) ratio. Most of these people were anti-Hillary but not pro-Trump, and there's little reason they'd be converted to Trump now. And those people vote regularly -- it takes a pretty committed voter to bother to fill out a ballot for a candidate who is certain to lose. So that means Trump stuck at 47 max probably gets Biden to his 5 point margin. And that's very likely to result in an electoral college victory too. Edited September 30, 2020 by The Frankish Reich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob's House Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Wallace: Will you condemn white supremacists ...? President Trump: Sure Liberals: THE PRESIDENT REFUSED TO CONDEMN WHITE SUPREMACISTS!!! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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