There should be a national dialogue in getting back to work

[Warren Zevon]

7 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

But what does that mean? how do we do it? Not saying that sarcastically, but that is the discussion we need to have

 

I'm not sure at a macro level but I think it would behoove us to have a national testing strategy and a national team of contact tracers. We also need the population to accept social distancing and wearing a mask in public as the new (temporary) normal.  I also think if the leader in the White House and his administration lead by example in promoting wearing a mask in public and social distancing much of the country would follow. 

[Koko78]

15 minutes ago, GG said:

 

If you care to be serious about a topic for a change - USA had a 55/100K rate for "deaths of despair" for 25-64 yr olds in 2017.   That translates to about 185K fatalities each year.  There were numerous studies that tried to explain the increased slope of the deaths of despair trendline, especially in the 2010-2014 periods.   

 

Also notable is that starting in 2018, US life expectancy started to increase, driven primarily by a decrease in the deaths of despair rates.

 

Draw whatever conclusion you want from these data sets.

 

That ***** don't matter. The only thing that will fix everything is if we turn total control over our lives to the government, which will bring about the rainbow-farting unicorns, who will impose a socialist utopia.

[Nanker]

2 minutes ago, dubs said:

 

I would argue that it makes the virus very infectious, but actually less dangerous.  If the estimates this person used are accurate and 1 in 5 people in NYC have been already infected, that's about 1,700,000 cases.

 

Unless you're 65+ years old, and worse - if you're in a nursing home... especially in New York. Over half the deaths in NY are from nursing home patients. In March the state decided that Nursing Homes had to accept Wuhan Virus cases that were released from a hospital. It did stipulate that the homes had to adhere to the CDC protocols. But many of them couldn't, but accepted the patients anyway. 

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/at-a-ny-nursing-home-forced-to-take-covid-19-patients-24-residents-have-died/ar-BB13bhPj

 

https://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-coronavirus-nursing-home-deaths-20200417-g4e4r6xqrfh4jhtzmombzjsfae-story.html

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/us/nursing-homes-coronavirus.html

 

https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/nyc-nursing-homes-besieged-by-coronavirus-deaths-state/

 

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/05/almost-half-of-onondaga-countys-coronavirus-deaths-are-from-nursing-homes.html

 

[plenzmd1]

18 minutes ago, GG said:

 

If you care to be serious about a topic for a change - USA had a 55/100K rate for "deaths of despair" for 25-64 yr olds in 2017.   That translates to about 185K fatalities each year.  There were numerous studies that tried to explain the increased slope of the deaths of despair trendline, especially in the 2010-2014 periods.   

 

Also notable is that starting in 2018, US life expectancy started to increase, driven primarily by a decrease in the deaths of despair rates.

 

Draw whatever conclusion you want from these data sets.

Can you explain this a bit @GG, not quite sure I understand? Thx

[GG]

1 minute ago, Nanker said:

Unless you're 65+ years old, and worse - if you're in a nursing home... especially in New York. Over half the deaths in NY are from nursing home patients. In March the state decided that Nursing Homes had to accept Wuhan Virus cases that were released from a hospital. It did stipulate that the homes had to adhere to the CDC protocols. But many of them couldn't, but accepted the patients anyway. 

 

 

My understanding is that at the time, the nursing homes had to accept the patients no matter what by state decree.

1 minute ago, plenzmd1 said:

Can you explain this a bit @GG, not quite sure I understand? Thx

 

Which part?

[plenzmd1]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

 

My understanding is that at the time, the nursing homes had to accept the patients no matter what by state decree.

 

Which part?

How that correlates to the discussion on opening the economy? Is there an infernce in the study that "deaths of despair" will increase? Is there a percentage attached? Just not sure i understand, and i would like to.Thx

[Deranged Rhino]

https://nypost.com/2020/05/06/faulty-coronavirus-kits-suspected-as-goat-and-fruit-test-positive-in-tanzania/

Faulty tests? Or ... something even worse?

 

FEAR=control. 

[GG]

2 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

How that correlates to the discussion on opening the economy? Is there an infernce in the study that "deaths of despair" will increase? Is there a percentage attached? Just not sure i understand, and i would like to.Thx

 

It's tangential to the question of what's more damaging - allowing the virus to spread more rapidly as you open up society or keep killing the economy by locking people up in their homes.

 

We kind of know the USA's reported Wuhan mortality of 5.8%, with an estimated 0.5% "actual" rate based on the assumption that a much higher number was actually infected (at least 15% of the population).   We also know what the deaths of despair (suicide, overdose, poisoning, etc) mortality rate is.  There's also evidence that points to a causal relationship between economic downturns and increases in deaths of despair.   

 

So the question to answer is how bad will this thing get if you don't open up the economy?    My guess is that the longer you wait the greater the toll, and it will surpass the Wuhan deaths, especially now that we have bent the curve.

26 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

https://nypost.com/2020/05/06/faulty-coronavirus-kits-suspected-as-goat-and-fruit-test-positive-in-tanzania/

Faulty tests? Or ... something even worse?

 

FEAR=control. 

 

Goat?  Fruit?

 

Did someone say Pan-demic?

 

Coincidence?  I think not.

[Deranged Rhino]

2 minutes ago, GG said:

Goat?  Fruit?

 

Did someone say Pan-demic?

 

Coincidence?  I think not.

 

  

[plenzmd1]

26 minutes ago, GG said:

 

 

 

Goat?  Fruit?

 

Did someone say Pan-demic?

 

Coincidence?  I think not.

Hmm, which brings us naturally to a discussion of this book

 

https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/155516/jitterbug-perfume-by-tom-robbins/

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jitterbug_Perfume

 

Quote

Plot summary[edit]

A powerful and chiseled 8th-century king named Alobar narrowly escapes regicide at the hands of his own subjects, from a custom of killing the leader at the first sign of aging. After fleeing, no longer a king but only a man, he travels through Eurasia, on a newfound quest for the secret to longevity. Eventually he stumbles upon the stamping grounds of the pungent goat-god Pan, who is slowly losing his godly powers as the world turns toward Christianity. Pan encourages Alobar to continue East in search of the masters of immortality.

I am a huge Tom Robbins fan, and this is by far my favorite by him. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

14 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

 

 

 

 

 

[Keukasmallies]

I wonder if the judge metes out the same degree of adherance to the law to every individual brought before his court.  I'm betting that he finds extenuating circumstances on a regular basis.  Why not in this case, beats me; maybe he deemed her to be just too feisty for his liking.

[1B4IDye]

14 hours ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

That salon owner will be able to pay her fine and fight her conviction if she chooses. Her go fund me is over $125k.

 

 

 

And her GoFundMe is now approaching $300K.

[dhg]

Was that judge wearing a mask in an empty courtroom?

[Nanker]

2 hours ago, GG said:

 

It's tangential to the question of what's more damaging - allowing the virus to spread more rapidly as you open up society or keep killing the economy by locking people up in their homes.

 

We kind of know the USA's reported Wuhan mortality of 5.8%, with an estimated 0.5% "actual" rate based on the assumption that a much higher number was actually infected (at least 15% of the population).   We also know what the deaths of despair (suicide, overdose, poisoning, etc) mortality rate is.  There's also evidence that points to a causal relationship between economic downturns and increases in deaths of despair.   

 

So the question to answer is how bad will this thing get if you don't open up the economy?    My guess is that the longer you wait the greater the toll, and it will surpass the Wuhan deaths, especially now that we have bent the curve.

 

Goat?  Fruit?

 

Did someone say Pan-demic?

 

Coincidence?  I think not.

Eye sea whut ewe did their. 

[shoshin]

Interesting tool from the RAND corporation. 

 

https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TLA173-1/tool.html

Quote

 

This tool supports decisionmakers in planning a recovery roadmap by estimating the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on health and economic outcomes. The tool also provides qualitative guidance on the efficacy, costs, and potential unintended consequences of a range of interventions.

 

The tool draws on an epidemiological model and an economic model to estimate effects, based on evidence from past epidemics, peer-reviewed literature, and data from the current pandemic. Data on current impacts are updated daily where available.

 

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by shoshin

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

 

[dubs]

10 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

It really is just that simple.

 

Also, where is the role of the legislatures in this?  I must have missed all the new laws being passed, but I guess at some point some law was passed giving governors and mayors broad discretion and authority to declare states of emergencies and do what they want.

 

 

[shoshin]

1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said:

 

 

Straw man argument is not productive. No one wants to close the country for years.