Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

[Augie]

18 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

 

I’ll take a little comfort in that being about a month old, and I’ll pray like hell that my 92 year old mother doesn’t see this, or anything like it! I, along with my two sisters, got a long, rambling paranoid text from her last night. She’s in her small retirement apartment and her tiny world has gotten even smaller. There may have been a second glass of wine involved, but it was very disturbing how this is affecting her (and as a result us), and how there is nothing we can safely do to improve her situation. 

 

A couple of her friends have gone to live with family, but short of an outbreak (or even a single case) we feel she is better there with the in-unit precautions for elderly and general level of care. We don’t go to concerts or happy hours, but we do the things we need to do to get by (including shopping for her).  It’s a tricky little balancing act, and we all just do our best. Just like the rest of life......

[BillsFan4]

 

?

[BillsFan4]

 

 

 

This is a good twitter thread. Worth reading IMO.

[BillsFan4]

 

 

 

 

9 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Troubling new learning about covid-19: healthy-feeling or barely ill young patients showing up in hospital with serious strokes

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

It isn’t just the number of patients that was unusual. The first wave of the pandemic has hit the elderly and those with heart disease, diabetes, obesity or other preexisting conditions disproportionately. The covid-19 patients treated for stroke at Mount Sinai were younger and mostly without risk factors.

On average, the covid-19 stroke patients were 15 years younger than stroke patients without the virus.

“These are people among the least likely statistically to have a stroke,” Mocco said.

(...)

In a letter to be published in the New England Journal of Medicine next week, the Mount Sinai team details five case studies of young patients who had strokes at home from March 23 to April 7. They make for difficult reading: The victims’ ages are 33, 37, 39, 44 and 49, and they were all home when they began to experience sudden symptoms, including slurred speech, confusion, drooping on one side of the face and a dead feeling in one arm.

One died, two are still hospitalized, one was released to rehabilitation, and one was released home to the care of his brother. Only one of the five, a 33-year-old woman, is able to speak.

Oxley, the interventional neurologist, said one striking aspect of the cases is how long many waited before seeking emergency care.

The 33-year-old woman was previously healthy but had a cough and headache for about a week. Over the course of 28 hours, she noticed her speech was slurred and that she was going numb and weak on her left side but, the researchers wrote, “delayed seeking emergency care due to fear of the covid-19 outbreak.” (she was already infected)

(...)

Oxley said the most important thing for people to understand is that large strokes are very treatable. Doctors are often able to reopen blocked blood vessels through techniques such as pulling out clots or inserting stents. But it has to be done quickly, ideally within six hours, but no longer than 24 hours: “The message we are trying to get out is if you have symptoms of stroke, you need to call the ambulance urgently. ”

PSA: to screen yourself or a loved one for stroke, Use the FAST test to check for the most common symptoms of a stroke in yourself or someone else.

Face: Smile and see if one side of the face droops.

Arms: Raise both arms. Does one arm drop down?

Speech: Say a short phrase and check for slurred or strange speech.

Time: If the answer to any of these is yes, call 911 right away and write down the time when symptoms started.

 

(from the facts thread)

 

man, this virus is a real monster.  Scary.

[GaryPinC]

19 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I think Sweden is a national, natural "Social Distancing" experiment and Hispanic/Mediterranean countries are um, NOT.  But that's just my opinion.

 

This is just all so preventable.  It did not have to be this way.

 

Current "hot spots" map (places where cases doubling most rapidly).  Click to embiggen. 

 

Some may represent local jumps in testing (eg 412 cases associated with meat packing plant in St Joseph, MO)

Some may represent outbreaks ready to flare.  Guess we're going to "do the experiment".

 

We sure are.  That's why Sweden is so critical to me.  Being in Ohio, population ~11 mil, Michigan pop ~ 10 mil and Sweden pop ~10 mil.  Sweden's worse off then Ohio but better than Michigan (in terms of deaths) so will they mitigate or escalate?  If the former than USA should do ok.  If the latter look out.

 

Part of what makes this country great is that independent spirit and not wanting to be told what to do by our government.  Sadly, it works against us now.  If people were exploding blood in the streets maybe more people would wake up and realize the importance of lockdown and preventative measures.  But, given Sweden's results thus far I'm hopeful reopening doesn't create a bigger mess.

 

You look at how S. Korea, China took symptomatic people and isolated them in gyms, dorms, etc.  There'd be a civil war here if we tried to do that!

So, here we go...

[GaryPinC]

38 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

This is a good twitter thread. Worth reading IMO.

Two things:  1. Increased and focused testing can make a difference.  4/17 to 4/21 Ohio had enough extra testing and targeted their prisons which exploded the new cases.  The vast majority were asymptomatic and probably never would have been tested under normal circumstances.

 

2.  While the 17% per week sounds intimidating, Ohio, which IMO has done a good job with their flattening, sees at least a 2% daily increase of cases and often 3-4% (especially since increased testing).  Looking at the above numbers, 24,322 to 28,437 over a week:    2% of 24,322 = 486          4% of 24,322 = 972 

                                                                           486 x 7 days = 3402              972 x 7 = 6804

Which in itself can account for the weekly increase.  Obviously they need to start shrinking but bottom line are not unusual.

 

In Ohio, despite the 2-4% increasing cases, the number of intensive care patients is s-l-o-wly coming down and overall hospitalized is static.   

https://www.cleveland.com/coronavirus/2020/05/mapping-ohios-21576-coronavirus-cases-wednedays-updates-and-trends.html

[Gray Beard]

I noticed on a map posted by @Hapless Bills Fan a couple posts up that there is a hot spot in the middle of New York State.  This is the reason...

 

https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/05/green-empire-farms-outbreak-madison-county-tests-150-more-farmworkers-for-coronavirus.html

 

A huge greenhouse in the middle of nowhere halfway between Utica and Syracuse has hundreds of workers with crowded living and working conditions.  It’s somewhat similar to the meat packing plant problems in the middle of the country.   Once it gets started, it gets to almost everybody. 

[BillsFan4]

https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AP/AP07/20200506/110747/HHRG-116-AP07-Wstate-RiversC-20200506.pdf

 

This is Dr. Cainlin Rivers opening statement to congress from the house appropriations subcommittee hearing Wednesday. It’s worth reading.

 

 

Quote

......

 

Current situation: The coronavirus pandemic is one the gravest challenges the world has faced in modern times. As of this writing, there have been over 3.3 million cases and 240,000 deaths worldwide, including the tragic loss of over 65,000 American lives. This toll is compounded by the severe economic losses stemming from the strict physical distancing measures we have had to take to slow transmission of COVID-19and save lives. However, these extreme efforts are working, and the number of new cases in many communities has plateaued or begun to fall.

Nonetheless, it is clear that more difficult times lay ahead. The US still faces 25- to 30,000 new cases and approximately 2,000 deaths every day, a range that held steady for the entire month of April. Many states are in the process of reopening, or are considering doing so, despite inadequate capacities to do diagnostic testing, contact tracing, and insufficient supplies of personal protective equipment. Other states not yet reopening are looking ahead to those decisions, as we all are, to try to understand how and when that transition to reopening should unfold.

It is clear to me that we are in a critical moment in this fight. We risk complacency in accepting the preventable deaths of 2,000 Americans each day. We risk complacency in accepting that our healthcare workers do not have what they need to do their jobs safely. And we risk complacency in recognizing that without continued vigilance in slowing transmission, we will again create the conditions that led to us being the worst-affected country in the world.

And so, at this critical moment, it is important that we renew our focus on the public health actions that we know are effective in defeating COVID-19. These are the strategies of South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, New Zealand, Germany, Iceland – all of which have successfully managed to slow their spread. I will describe three capacities needed, which taken together will allow us to transition safely from staying home to a gradual reopening (steps described in link)

 

She also said that to her knowledge no state reopening meets all the gating criteria.

 

Quote

“To my knowledge, there are no states that meet all four of those criteria“

 

“The first is to see the number of new cases decline for at least two weeks, and some states have met that criteria. But there are three other criteria and we suggest they should all be met," 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, GaryPinC said:

We sure are.  That's why Sweden is so critical to me.  Being in Ohio, population ~11 mil, Michigan pop ~ 10 mil and Sweden pop ~10 mil.  Sweden's worse off then Ohio but better than Michigan (in terms of deaths) so will they mitigate or escalate?  If the former than USA should do ok.  If the latter look out.

 

Part of what makes this country great is that independent spirit and not wanting to be told what to do by our government.  Sadly, it works against us now.  If people were exploding blood in the streets maybe more people would wake up and realize the importance of lockdown and preventative measures.  But, given Sweden's results thus far I'm hopeful reopening doesn't create a bigger mess.

 

You look at how S. Korea, China took symptomatic people and isolated them in gyms, dorms, etc.  There'd be a civil war here if we tried to do that!

So, here we go...

 

I wouldn't compare Sweden's outcomes to Ohio or Michigan.  Based on cell phone maps of travel, the population of Sweden is being far more mindful of reducing travel and staying home/social distancing than "locked down" Ohio or Michigan, and they don't have people in public gatherings standing maskless and shoulder to shoulder screaming.  Even if those are only a few hundred people, all it takes is for one of them to have been infected, spread it around, those people spread it around and Here We Go.

 

I'm not sure you're correct about the outcome of isolating symptomatic people or people in general.  One of the issues that was a sore spot for my friend's brother ("Major Brother" in a post a while back) was finding a way for his officers to self-isolate away from their families, to keep their families from becoming ill.    That's the point of isolating symptomatic people.  In Korea and China, they are also provided with medical observation and medical support. 

 

I expect that actually most people with covid-19 would actually like to have medical observation that will trigger an alert if (for example) their oxygen levels go low or they start to show clotting problems, and medical support such as oxygen and IV fluid if they have trouble staying hydrated, and to not increase the risk of infecting their families, instead of being sent home and told "come back only if you have trouble breathing".

 

It's one of the reasons IMO why S. Korea is having overall better outcomes for hospitalized people than we are - especially in NYC at the peak, people weren't admitted to hospital until their disease was too advanced for much to help.  It was "all or nothing".

Though probably you are correct that we'd have groups of a few hundred maskless people screaming about personal choice and liberty if the US did try to institute such a quarantine procedure.

 

 

[GaryPinC]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I wouldn't compare Sweden's outcomes to Ohio or Michigan.  Based on cell phone maps of travel, the population of Sweden is being far more mindful of reducing travel and staying home/social distancing than "locked down" Ohio or Michigan, and they don't have people in public gatherings standing maskless and shoulder to shoulder screaming.

 

Even if those are only a few hundred people, all it takes is for one of them to have been infected, spread it around, those people spread it around and Here We Go.

 

I'm not sure you're correct about the outcome of isolating symptomatic people or people in general.  One of the issues that was a sore spot for my friend's brother ("Major Brother" in a post a while back) was finding a way for his officers to self-isolate away from their families, to keep their families from becoming ill.    That's the point of isolating symptomatic people.  In Korea and China, they are also provided with medical observation and medical support. 

 

I expect that actually most people with covid-19 would actually like to have medical observation that will trigger an alert if (for example) their oxygen levels go low or they start to show clotting problems, and medical support such as oxygen and IV fluid if they have trouble staying hydrated, and to not increase the risk of infecting their families, instead of being sent home and told "come back only if you have trouble breathing".

 

It's one of the reasons IMO why S. Korea is having far better outcomes than we are - especially in NYC at the peak, people weren't admitted to hospital until their disease was too advanced for much to help.  It was "all or nothing".

 

 

It's a good point about S. Korea and NYC admitting people too late.

As far as Sweden, the picture at this market was taken April 25th  https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/sweden-says-it-prepared-fight-covid-19-long-term

Tons of pictures of people there gathered together in restaurants, bars and parks.  Articles about nursing home staff saying they are not masked and not doing much to prevent spread of infection.

 

So yeah, I'm not impressed with their Covid flattening steps and choose to look at them in comparison to OH and MI.

 

Is your cell phone sourcing in the other directory?  Is it the US spring breakers being tracked or the general population?

[Warcodered]

What I don't get is the idea that opening back up quickly is going to magically fix the economy. I mean when this thing ramps up and more and more people are getting sick and dying who the hell is going to want to be out shopping.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

Would early treatment, find out got covid right away gave you  hydroxychloroquine, zinc whatever helps? Before it multiply in you? I would think so. Or gives people fighting chance and being ahead of it. Plus as well can help slow down the infection rate to others. Like trying to put out a fire right away. Before get's bigger.

[Halloween Land]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

What I don't get is the idea that opening back up quickly is going to magically fix the economy. I mean when this thing ramps up and more and more people are getting sick and dying who the hell is going to want to be out shopping.

We don't have to open up quickly, we can open up slowly, certain parts in each state. But the bottom line is we need to open up because we can't live like this, being stuck at home. We can still practice social distancing while opening up the nation slowly. If people want to go on a vacation this summer, then they should have the right to, most hotels are open, summer comes once a year, and we only get this good weather for a short amount of time. Call me selfish, I don't care because if I wear a mask or practice social distancing then how am I  being selfish? Why would I stay inside on a nice summer day, even hanging out in your yard gets boring after a while. 

[Figster]

44 minutes ago, Halloween Land said:

We don't have to open up quickly, we can open up slowly, certain parts in each state. But the bottom line is we need to open up because we can't live like this, being stuck at home. We can still practice social distancing while opening up the nation slowly. If people want to go on a vacation this summer, then they should have the right to, most hotels are open, summer comes once a year, and we only get this good weather for a short amount of time. Call me selfish, I don't care because if I wear a mask or practice social distancing then how am I  being selfish? Why would I stay inside on a nice summer day, even hanging out in your yard gets boring after a while. 

If you are willing to wear a mask (properly) and practice social distancing you are not being selfish for wanting our way of life to get back to normal IMO.

 

We have hard working Americans in food lines to feed their children. People need to work, collect a paycheck.

 

The ones who will not wear a mask and practice social distancing are the real problem. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

 

7 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

Would early treatment, find out got covid right away gave you  hydroxychloroquine, zinc whatever helps? Before it multiply in you? I would think so. Or gives people fighting chance and being ahead of it. Plus as well can help slow down the infection rate to others. Like trying to put out a fire right away. Before get's bigger.

 

Your fire analogy is a good one.  The hope is that there would be some treatment that could be given to make the disease less severe or make the person not contagious.  For the same "put out fire early" reason, people are recommended to take influenza antivirals as soon as possible.

 

Unfortunately there is nothing yet that is proven to help.  There are many clinical trials ongoing. 

Hydroxychloroquine has not shown benefit for treating sick people.  There are trials of hydroxychloroquine and a bunch of other medication for treating people who have been exposed, such as healthcare workers, or who have just been tested positive but are not symptomatic.  Hopefully one or more will prove out, but they are all still ongoing (which is not good news - if something were unambiguously helpful they would halt the trial and give it to the placebo group).

[Hapless Bills Fan]

9 hours ago, GaryPinC said:

It's a good point about S. Korea and NYC admitting people too late.

As far as Sweden, the picture at this market was taken April 25th  https://www.voanews.com/covid-19-pandemic/sweden-says-it-prepared-fight-covid-19-long-term

Tons of pictures of people there gathered together in restaurants, bars and parks.  Articles about nursing home staff saying they are not masked and not doing much to prevent spread of infection.

 

So yeah, I'm not impressed with their Covid flattening steps and choose to look at them in comparison to OH and MI.

 

Is your cell phone sourcing in the other directory?  Is it the US spring breakers being tracked or the general population?

 

The part about nursing home staff not taking infection prevention measures or masking up is very concerning for their elders.  Big gap if generally true.

 

I'm a bit skeptical of pictures, they can show very localized or one-off situations.  What I hear is life being very different, much sparser, people spacing out (but not much mask wearing in public).

 

I'm not sure I understand your final comment but I think you're asking for a source on mobility data derived from cell phones.

There are several sources online.  The hardest to interpret but least processed is here, from Google. 
 

[ALF]

With so many states partially open we will know in 2 or 3 weeks if they can loosen further.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

6 hours ago, Halloween Land said:

We don't have to open up quickly, we can open up slowly, certain parts in each state. But the bottom line is we need to open up because we can't live like this, being stuck at home. We can still practice social distancing while opening up the nation slowly. If people want to go on a vacation this summer, then they should have the right to, most hotels are open, summer comes once a year, and we only get this good weather for a short amount of time. Call me selfish, I don't care because if I wear a mask or practice social distancing then how am I  being selfish? Why would I stay inside on a nice summer day, even hanging out in your yard gets boring after a while. 

 

We need to open up, but we need to meet the criteria first.   The Federal reopening guidelines were actually pretty well-thought-out.

 

If you wear a mask and practice social distancing you aren't being selfish, and in fact in many areas with stay at home orders, it is not expected to stay inside, it is allowed to go to a park for exercise or to enjoy fresh air  - just asked that if the parking is full, consider that the park is also full and go elsewhere.

Vacations are a mixed thing.  Of course many local economies depend upon vacationers to come and spend money in hotels, restaurants, bars, and activities.  But if people come on vacation and engage in behavior that exposes the community, many more rural parts of the country don't have the hospital capacity to take care of their own, much less vacationers.
 

15 minutes ago, ALF said:

With so many states partially open we will know in 2 or 3 weeks if they can loosen further.

 

Not long enough.  3-14 day incubation period, 2 weeks can be only one infection cycle.  A lot of asymptomatic spread, it can spread for a couple of infection cycles then reach some vulnerable populations and take off.

 

I know, I know, I'm Debbie Downer here.

[Lurker]

[KD in CA]

15 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

At this stage, I'd say a haircut is worth about 6-8 lives.  Maybe 10-12 if they are all people like her.