Gunner's 2020 Mock Draft! UPDATE - v3.0 (and FINAL) now posted on p.8

[Prospector]

I wish these draft simulator sites were more logical, but here is my last First-Picks draft for use. I chose to draft a K and P because I don't really see us having 7 potential roster makers in this draft... maybe 3 at the most, not counting kicker and punter. Anyways, I know each of these players I drafted before round 6 are most likely gone in an actual draft:

 

Round 2 Pick 22: D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia (A+)
Round 3 Pick 22: Kyle Dugger, SS/FS, Lenoir-Rhyne (A+)
Round 4 Pick 22: Chase Claypool, WR/TE, Notre Dame (A+)
Round 5 Pick 9: K.J. Hill, WR, Ohio St. (A+)
Round 6 Pick 9: Braden Mann, P, Texas A&M (A+)
Round 6 Pick 22: Tyler Bass, K, Ga. Southern (A+)
Round 7 Pick 25: Carter Coughlin, OLB, Minnesota (A+)
 

[FireChans]

37 minutes ago, WorstTEever81 said:

I wish these draft simulator sites were more logical, but here is my last First-Picks draft for use. I chose to draft a K and P because I don't really see us having 7 potential roster makers in this draft... maybe 3 at the most, not counting kicker and punter. Anyways, I know each of these players I drafted before round 6 are most likely gone in an actual draft:

 

Round 2 Pick 22: D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia (A+)
Round 3 Pick 22: Kyle Dugger, SS/FS, Lenoir-Rhyne (A+)
Round 4 Pick 22: Chase Claypool, WR/TE, Notre Dame (A+)
Round 5 Pick 9: K.J. Hill, WR, Ohio St. (A+)
Round 6 Pick 9: Braden Mann, P, Texas A&M (A+)
Round 6 Pick 22: Tyler Bass, K, Ga. Southern (A+)
Round 7 Pick 25: Carter Coughlin, OLB, Minnesota (A+)
 

I think every one of your first 4 picks will be gone 20 picks or so earlier.

Edited April 12, 2020 by FireChans

[Prospector]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think every one of your first 4 picks will be gone 20 picks or so earlier.

I agree 1000%

[Lurker]

I can see the Bills trading up 5-6 slots in the second to ensure they get their guy.   It's Beane's mudus operandi and there are 2-3 guys that look like good fits...

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, WorstTEever81 said:

I wish these draft simulator sites were more logical, but here is my last First-Picks draft for use. I chose to draft a K and P because I don't really see us having 7 potential roster makers in this draft... maybe 3 at the most, not counting kicker and punter. Anyways, I know each of these players I drafted before round 6 are most likely gone in an actual draft:

 

Round 2 Pick 22: D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia (A+)
Round 3 Pick 22: Kyle Dugger, SS/FS, Lenoir-Rhyne (A+)
Round 4 Pick 22: Chase Claypool, WR/TE, Notre Dame (A+)
Round 5 Pick 9: K.J. Hill, WR, Ohio St. (A+)
Round 6 Pick 9: Braden Mann, P, Texas A&M (A+)
Round 6 Pick 22: Tyler Bass, K, Ga. Southern (A+)
Round 7 Pick 25: Carter Coughlin, OLB, Minnesota (A+)
 

First-pick is the worst of the sites. I like Fanspeak on the clock and set it to difficult. It is pretty close to right

[Watkins101]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

First-pick is the worst of the sites. I like Fanspeak on the clock and set it to difficult. It is pretty close to right

That also depends on the big board too though. Some are decent. Josh Edwards of CBS' is pretty bad.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, Watkins101 said:

That also depends on the big board too though. Some are decent. Josh Edwards of CBS' is pretty bad.

I stick to fanspeak Steve or Matt Miller

[Thurman#1]

Dugger, Greenard and Terrell Lewis available at #53. I imagine the FO would be thrilled if it falls that way.

 

Thanks, Gunner. Great stuff.

 

I see maybe four or five other guys of interest going in the next ten or so picks. Should be interesting.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Lurker said:

I can see the Bills trading up 5-6 slots in the second to ensure they get their guy.   It's Beane's mudus operandi and there are 2-3 guys that look like good fits...

 

 

To go up 5 - 6 slots they're going to probably have to give up their 4th rounder.

 

With only three picks in the top 130, I don't see that happening.

 

I guess we'll see.

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Dugger, Greenard and Terrell Lewis available at #53. I imagine the FO would be thrilled if it falls that way.

 

Thanks, Gunner. Great stuff.

 

I see maybe four or five other guys of interest going in the next ten or so picks. Should be interesting.

 

I think what surprised me when I started that round 2 mock was just how many corners came off the board early in round 2. But there are some corner needy teams and the depth of this class after the round 1 and 2 guys is not great. 

[No_Matter_What]

Hi Gunner. Thanks for making these for us who don't watch college and/or don't understand football ?

 

I have couple of questions.

 

1. You mentioned couple of times that you have 20 players with 1st round grade. Who are they? I guess 17 are pretty clear: QBs Burrow, Tua, OTs Wirfs, Becton, Wills, Thomas, WRs Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, DEs Young, Chaisson, LB Simmons, DTs Brown, Kinlaw, LB Simmons, CB Okudah and S McKinney.

 

From the first round based on what you wrote I think you consider QBs Herbert, Love, any other WRs and DEs Epenesa and Gross-Matos as first rounders.

 

So who are remaining three? LBs Queen and Murray and CB Fulton? You said you have him graded higher than Henderson but not sure if it warrants 1st round grade. Or are they both in and one of the LBs not?

 

2. How much time do you invest in this? I think you said you have ~120 players graded and I assume that you put at least 2 hours of tape into each one, with much more into some. That has to be crazy amount of time.

 

3. What I miss with mocks and drafts overall is some later evaluation. There are sometimes articles on how drafts pan out but those are really rare. What I would appreciate is if you could put some perspective into past mocks and drafts. Eg. take 2018 draft, take your final mock and make something out of it. Take first round of real draft, mention your draft grade, evaluate how it worked (I think you said you watch every game of NFL so you can evaluate NFL players), and compare your mock with real draft and real performances. Then also take some interesting players from later rounds (Bills players, your remaining top players, players from later rounds who are great) and add them too.

 

I think something like this would be very interesting for many people if you had som time. I'd like to know how your evaluation translates into real NFL.

[Lurker]

16 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Doesn’t he just feel safe to you? I don’t mean that as an insult in anyway either. He feels like a high floor guy to me. Greenard reminds me of Shaq a little bit honestly. Greenard’s game is a little more refined than most of the other edge prospects. He may never be a 15 sack guy but he will get some rush and is solid at the point of attack.

 

Same here. 

 

He'll be an effective rotational player but I suspect we'd always be asking for more from him.    So essentially, a cog not a long-term keeper...

[OldTimer1960]

13 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

Same here. 

 

He'll be an effective rotational player but I suspect we'd always be asking for more from him.    So essentially, a cog not a long-term keeper...

Bills are picking in the bottom 1/3 of each round - first pick 54th.  In that spot, Bills should be happy to get a decent starter.  Yes, sometimes a star is found there or later even, but by round 2 good starter is totally fine.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, No_Matter_What said:

Hi Gunner. Thanks for making these for us who don't watch college and/or don't understand football ?

 

I have couple of questions.

 

1. You mentioned couple of times that you have 20 players with 1st round grade. Who are they? I guess 17 are pretty clear: QBs Burrow, Tua, OTs Wirfs, Becton, Wills, Thomas, WRs Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, DEs Young, Chaisson, LB Simmons, DTs Brown, Kinlaw, LB Simmons, CB Okudah and S McKinney.

 

From the first round based on what you wrote I think you consider QBs Herbert, Love, any other WRs and DEs Epenesa and Gross-Matos as first rounders.

 

So who are remaining three? LBs Queen and Murray and CB Fulton? You said you have him graded higher than Henderson but not sure if it warrants 1st round grade. Or are they both in and one of the LBs not?

 

2. How much time do you invest in this? I think you said you have ~120 players graded and I assume that you put at least 2 hours of tape into each one, with much more into some. That has to be crazy amount of time.

 

3. What I miss with mocks and drafts overall is some later evaluation. There are sometimes articles on how drafts pan out but those are really rare. What I would appreciate is if you could put some perspective into past mocks and drafts. Eg. take 2018 draft, take your final mock and make something out of it. Take first round of real draft, mention your draft grade, evaluate how it worked (I think you said you watch every game of NFL so you can evaluate NFL players), and compare your mock with real draft and real performances. Then also take some interesting players from later rounds (Bills players, your remaining top players, players from later rounds who are great) and add them too.

 

I think something like this would be very interesting for many people if you had som time. I'd like to know how your evaluation translates into real NFL.

 

Thanks. 

 

On question 1 - I am down to 19 again. I just can't get my head around Chaisson at all. It is his Georgia tape against two good tackles where he was just manhandled. He has bounced inbetween low 1st, 1st/2nd borderline and high 2nd on my boars. I thought I had settled on low first and then I have gone back again he is in the borderline category. But yes - Queen, Murray and Fulton are the three. 

 

On question 2 - nobody goes on the board without 3 watches. I have to have been able to find 3 games (certainly not with a first 3 rounds grade) if I have watched a guy twice and I am settling on him as a late round guy I might allow myself to stick him on. The one I have had to cheat myself a little on this year is Kyle Dugger. I have 2 games and the Senior Bowl which is s bit dicey but there we are. With most guys who I end with a kind of top 50 or so grade on I will have gone around the loop twice as well. Chaisson (might be the hardest evaluation in 6 years of doing this) I have probably spent somewhere in the region of 5 or 6 hours watching and re-watching. 

 

EDIT: sorry missed question 3 - happy to do some draft reflections over the summer. Would probably start with 2016 because they are the guys who now have a complete rookie contract behind them.

Edited April 13, 2020 by GunnerBill

[Lurker]

25 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Bills are picking in the bottom 1/3 of each round - first pick 54th.  In that spot, Bills should be happy to get a decent starter.  Yes, sometimes a star is found there or later even, but by round 2 good starter is totally fine.

 

Lawson was not a starter.   IMO, Grennard would likely take a similar path (40% snap type player)...  

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think what surprised me when I started that round 2 mock was just how many corners came off the board early in round 2. But there are some corner needy teams and the depth of this class after the round 1 and 2 guys is not great. 

 

 

Interesting. I've been sort of hoping they wouldn't go corner in the 2nd, that they could fill that need later.

 

I keep falling into that trap, whatever I'm thinking about that day, that's the position I hope they go with round 2. It's seductive. You've given me something to think about. Thanks again. Your work is amazing, I honestly don't know how you manage it. Great stuff.

[stinky finger]

18 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Doesn’t he just feel safe to you? I don’t mean that as an insult in anyway either. He feels like a high floor guy to me. Greenard reminds me of Shaq a little bit honestly. Greenard’s game is a little more refined than most of the other edge prospects. He may never be a 15 sack guy but he will get some rush and is solid at the point of attack.

 

Feels that way to me. Doesn't seem like he'd provide the impact. Edge doesn't seem to have the value at 54.

[Kirby Jackson]

15 minutes ago, inaugural balls said:

 

Feels that way to me. Doesn't seem like he'd provide the impact. Edge doesn't seem to have the value at 54.

I guess that I look at it differently. To me, if we were getting what Shaq gave at 54 or 86 that’s a really good selection. A quality DE, good against the run and 5-10 sacks is a nice pick with our limited needs.
 

Asked a different way, what kind of immediate production are we expecting out of this draft class? We aren’t likely to be drafting an immediate starter in this draft imo. There are a few places where we can get a guy that is going to play the rotation (OLB, CB, RB, edge). I’m viewing this draft as how to we round out the 2 deep across the roster?
 

Greenard would come into a situation where the top 3 players on the depth chart are aging or potentially cap casualties. He could slide in this year and play 40% of the snaps (or whatever) and be in line for a larger role moving forward. If he looks like he can handle a bigger role, the Bills can save money on an aging vet and use that to pay their young stars. 

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

Lawson was not a starter.   IMO, Grennard would likely take a similar path (40% snap type player)...  

I think the Dolphins would disagree, especially with what they paid him.

 

I liked Lawson - I think he is a decent to good starting DE in the league.  The idea that every starting DE is expected to get 10 sacks per year is unrealistic in my opinion.

[JohnC]

53 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess that I look at it differently. To me, if we were getting what Shaq gave at 54 or 86 that’s a really good selection. A quality DE, good against the run and 5-10 sacks is a nice pick with our limited needs.
 

Asked a different way, what kind of immediate production are we expecting out of this draft class? We aren’t likely to be drafting an immediate starter in this draft imo. There are a few places where we can get a guy that is going to play the rotation (OLB, CB, RB, edge). I’m viewing this draft as how to we round out the 2 deep across the roster?
 

Greenard would come into a situation where the top 3 players on the depth chart are aging or potentially cap casualties. He could slide in this year and play 40% of the snaps (or whatever) and be in line for a larger role moving forward. If he looks like he can handle a bigger role, the Bills can save money on an aging vet and use that to pay their young stars.

You make an incisive point about strategic decisions that not only address the present issues but also future roster issues that relate to not only the talent but also cap considerations. This regime came in a few years back and had a blueprint not only on how to build a roster from a talent standpoint but also to restructure the roster from a cap standpoint. 

 

If you recall when McDermott joined the organization big decisions were soon made to cull some of the big ticket players in order to redo the cap structure. Those tough decisions were exemplified by not retaining talented but costly players such as Watkins and Gilmore. Those decisions were influenced as much by future contract considerations as they were talent considerations. It shouldn't be forgotten that two years ago the McBeane tandem absorbed a big cap hit in order to be in a more financially flexible position the next offseason so they could make a number of judicious free agent acquisitions.

 

My main point is that this regime is demonstrably more strategic in their planning and execution and less ad hoc than the prior regimes were.