WNY Housing

[RochesterRob]

  I was watching the news last night and one of the stories talked about a hot local housing (sales) market.  This was on top of the couple days old story that New York continues to lose residents.  Obviously, there is more to this than what has been covered.  Sure, some areas are stable population-wise.  Some current home buyers were most likely long term renters who were able to set aside money for a down payment.  Just wondering what others are seeing.  I see a few desirable neighborhoods and townships having good results in terms of off the market in short order of listed homes.  What I mostly see is neighborhoods and townships where homes are on the market for months and have suspicions that in order to get places sold the sellers are taking a beating.  I think that there is more to it than the sunny assessment of a realtor association person who says buy now before it is too late when a microphone and camera is directed their way.  What are you seeing?

[The Jokeman]

Me and my wife bought our house two and a half years ago, at the time houses were going quick some sold before the open house. We were both long term renters (both in our early 40s) and just made more economical sense to get a house.Today they seem to be going as quick and way more than asking. I think we lucked out as submitted our bid 2-3 weeks after it went up but my realtor told me no other bids were on the house. I did some deep research on our bid on comps in the area both in size/neighborhood and got it for $4.5k below asking and now with the market as it is our house is estimated for about $25k more than we bought it for yet all we've done is removed some shrubs in the front lawn and painted the walls. Most of the houses in our area (suburban Buffalo) sell in less than a month.

[KD in CA]

5 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  I was watching the news last night and one of the stories talked about a hot local housing (sales) market.  This was on top of the couple days old story that New York continues to lose residents.  Obviously, there is more to this than what has been covered.  Sure, some areas are stable population-wise.  Some current home buyers were most likely long term renters who were able to set aside money for a down payment.  Just wondering what others are seeing.  I see a few desirable neighborhoods and townships having good results in terms of off the market in short order of listed homes.  What I mostly see is neighborhoods and townships where homes are on the market for months and have suspicions that in order to get places sold the sellers are taking a beating.  I think that there is more to it than the sunny assessment of a realtor association person who says buy now before it is too late when a microphone and camera is directed their way.  What are you seeing?

 

We could be in the aftermath of a nuclear war and the real estate industry would be preaching "It's a great time to buy!!"

[Gugny]

All I know is @teef likes to brag about his low Rochester property taxes just to piss @Royale with Cheese off.

[Gray Beard]

My son was looking at houses in the Utica area last year (not in the city, but in some of the surrounding towns).  It’s a sellers’ market, and house prices have risen noticeably over the past couple of years.  

 

Houses are going for more than asking price and are selling in a matter of days. He gave up.  He thought he could get a starter house (small 3 bedroom ranch) for under $200K but now it looks like it’s about $250K for anything decent.  

 

Now he’s decided that he doesn’t want to be in the Utica area long enough to bother buying a house, so he stopped looking.  That’s a common attitude.  Forty years ago I was sure I wouldn’t be in the Utica area very long.

 

Note... Utica area is significantly cheaper than other Central NY areas like Syracuse, Rochester or Albany. 

[Augie]

Not about your market, but people often lose sight of the obvious when they track what the house is worth. When you sell, you have to subtract about 6% for the commission, plus thousands in closing costs, then the moving costs. “Oh, my house is up $20k per Zillow!”  First, don’t trust Zillow, and second, it’s not that simple. Don’t buy unless you are pretty confident you will be there for a few years at least, or you will lose money just on the transaction costs.

 

We lost significant money in Nashville, one of the hottest markets in the country because we made improvements (which most people do when they buy) and we sold after only two years, much earlier than expected. 

 

Buyer beware, and as certain as possible. 

[Lurker]

13 hours ago, RochesterRob said:

  I was watching the news last night and one of the stories talked about a hot local housing (sales) market.  This was on top of the couple days old story that New York continues to lose residents.  Obviously, there is more to this than what has been covered.  Sure, some areas are stable population-wise.  Some current home buyers were most likely long term renters who were able to set aside money for a down payment.  Just wondering what others are seeing.  I see a few desirable neighborhoods and townships having good results in terms of off the market in short order of listed homes.  What I mostly see is neighborhoods and townships where homes are on the market for months and have suspicions that in order to get places sold the sellers are taking a beating.  I think that there is more to it than the sunny assessment of a realtor association person who says buy now before it is too late when a microphone and camera is directed their way.  What are you seeing?

 

 

The Buffalo housing market is interesting.  There aren't enough homes coming on the market (supply) even though demand is pretty steady.   That imbalance is great for sellers--good homes in desirable neighborhoods get multiple offers and prices are bid up.    There's only a 2.3 month supply overall, which is amazing since 6 months is considered normal.   As a result, pricing is slowly rising.  Just like we were taught in Economics 101.

 

Properties in less desireable neighborhoods or that need work can sit for a long time.   The realtors I know say first time buyers don't want fixer uppers anymore.   The house has to be in pretty good shape or they're not interested.  The problem is, if the house is in good shape or has been recently remoddled, the owners don't want to sell--they want to stay there--which is driving the inventory shortage.

 

The other thing right now is mortgage rates.   They're near a 3-year low, which makes buying more affordable on a relative basis :   http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by Lurker

[Buffalo_Gal]

My son and his girlfriend bought a house last year in North Buffalo. To say the market was sizzling would be an understatement. They looked for over a year, and finally lucked into one because the sellers were very difficult to work with (divorce case). They still have some work to do on it (first time buyers), but they are happy to be in their house.

 

[RochesterRob]

  Interesting.  Pent up demand and a narrow focus in the market.  Sounds like a flipper could make it in Buffalo with the correct strategy.

[Lurker]

1 minute ago, RochesterRob said:

  Interesting.  Pent up demand and a narrow focus in the market.  Sounds like a flipper could make it in Buffalo with the correct strategy.

 

It's even tighter in Rochester.   I think they're like at a 1.9 month supply...

 

http://marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/GRAR_z80sms/GRAR_2019-Q4.mp4

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, Lurker said:

 

It's even tighter in Rochester.   I think they're like at a 1.9 month supply...

 

http://marketstatsreports.showingtime.com/GRAR_z80sms/GRAR_2019-Q4.mp4

  A fair amount of new construction over into Ontario County in the Victor/Farmington area.  As said with the Buffalo area good homes in good neighborhoods are in the most extreme short supply.  Having said that if I were looking today (which I am not) I would probably buy something an hour outside of either city unless my career dictated otherwise.  Too much value to be had out in the hamlets.

[Lurker]

17 minutes ago, RochesterRob said:

  A fair amount of new construction over into Ontario County in the Victor/Farmington area.  As said with the Buffalo area good homes in good neighborhoods are in the most extreme short supply.  Having said that if I were looking today (which I am not) I would probably buy something an hour outside of either city unless my career dictated otherwise.  Too much value to be had out in the hamlets.

 

As yiu say, Ontario county is seeing a lot of new build activity (Farmington is booming).   Still, most Millennials and first time buyers want to be closer to and/or in urban areas where there are a lot of things to do and its a more walkable lifestyle.    Villages can offer some of that, but the farther out you get, the less demand there'll be...

[Guffalo]

We have a challenge ahead of us. We currently live on Long Island, high taxes, high cost of living. I have been here since 1982 since my wife is from here. As we start to look at retirement options, I would like to move back to WNY or at least CNY if I could find the right option. Our daughter is going to be staying in Long Island, since she is in the nursing field and established. Her boyfriend has just become a county cop last year. Any move we make will require to be within 1 day driving distance or the wife will balk at moving.

 

I was hoping for something with reasonable taxes (ours are astronomical at 13K between county and school) where we could maybe spend May to November, then go south for December to end of April. As I look at Buffalo real estate I, usually look for something in the downtown or Elmwood village areas, where I can have access to the waterfront or other activities there. I have noticed the prices have been moving up dramatically over the past year. I usually search 2 bed 2 bath condos/townhouses since we will be vacant part of the year. It is now gone from 190's to well over 225 in the last 9 months. I had been saving the emails, and some places have jumped 20K in a year. Are people flipping stuff that quick? Are people speculating on a downtown stadium and scooping up properties? 

[BarleyNY]

I live in Williamsville.  Prices are up 20-25% from when we bought 7.5 years ago.  Homes are not on the market long if they’re priced reasonably.

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

My son and his girlfriend bought a house last year in North Buffalo. To say the market was sizzling would be an understatement. They looked for over a year, and finally lucked into one because the sellers were very difficult to work with (divorce case). They still have some work to do on it (first time buyers), but they are happy to be in their house.

 

 

Now they have to get to work on that grandchild!!

[Buffalo_Gal]

2 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

Now they have to get to work on that grandchild!!

I wish!! 

I've given up on them getting married, and just wish they'd give me a grandchild or two. Adopted, biological, I'm not fussy!  I just want some paybac... er, grandkids!



 

Edited February 2, 2020 by Buffalo_Gal

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

So basically, houses in the "hot areas" of the city are selling great.

 

And this is different than any other city?

[Gray Beard]

3 minutes ago, \GoBillsInDallas/ said:

So basically, houses in the "hot areas" of the city are selling great.

 

And this is different than any other city?

It’s different because a few years ago the prices were noticeably lower and houses sat on the market for a few weeks, even in the hot areas.  My son recently bid $5K over the asking price on a house that was only on the market for a few days, and he didn’t get it.  That’s a new phenomenon around here to my knowledge. 

[RochesterRob]

8 hours ago, Lurker said:

 

As yiu say, Ontario county is seeing a lot of new build activity (Farmington is booming).   Still, most Millennials and first time buyers want to be closer to and/or in urban areas where there are a lot of things to do and its a more walkable lifestyle.    Villages can offer some of that, but the farther out you get, the less demand there'll be...

  Yes, some neighborhoods in the south side of Rochester are seeing quick selling homes due to this. Victor is just about built over so there is a surge in the town of Farmington.  I suspect that Canandaigua will be next if demand stays up for another decade.  Probably would have happened a long time ago if the original plan for 390 going all the way down to Canandaigua Lake had happened.

[RochesterRob]

57 minutes ago, Gray Beard said:

It’s different because a few years ago the prices were noticeably lower and houses sat on the market for a few weeks, even in the hot areas.  My son recently bid $5K over the asking price on a house that was only on the market for a few days, and he didn’t get it.  That’s a new phenomenon around here to my knowledge. 

  That and homes in not so desirable areas (note that I did not say BAD areas) sit for months even with appreciable mark downs.  As said before I would move to a hamlet an hour or more outside of Rochester or Buffalo to get a great value.  Some pretty good homes available for under 100K because younger people want to be at their destination in 5-10 minutes.  For me the ride is sometimes as good as the final destination.