Buffalo_Gal Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: So I'd expect another spicy press conference today. They've been tame since the press got their ass handed to them, went home and actually did some research, and found he was not talking out his behind. I look forward to some fireworks! Edited April 17, 2020 by Buffalo_Gal 2
Deranged Rhino Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Magox said: I think they are going to ask him about Cuomo complaining about tests and money. And they will ask him what his tweets about wanting to "liberate" some of these states such as Michigan, Virginia and Minnesota. It will either be contentious or he will shrug it off and not really address it. A very good bet.
B-Man Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 22 minutes ago, BillStime said: Typical - can’t defend so deflect! . 3
Magox Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, Buffalo_Gal said: They've been tame since the press got their ass handed to them, went home and actually did some research, and found he was not talking out his behind. I look forward to some fireworks! I don't think that's why it's been tame. Trump has changed his style over the past two briefings. He hasn't looked to get in skirmishes with journalists and he has not allowed reporters for the most part not followup with their questions. He also has answered the questions directly with rapid fire sort of responses and moves on quickly to the next question. These reporters will never feel like they have had "their asses handed to them". They believe they are winning every single day. They are feeding their left wing base (their viewers) and that's what their corporate bosses want them to do. 1 1
Magox Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 @shoshin Interesting antibody study out of Santa Clara California Quote Two research groups, assisted by a team of volunteers, sought to get a better sense of the true prevalence in Santa Clara County in Northern California, which was one of the first places in the U.S. where community spread was detected. They tested 3,300 people by asking the volunteers to show up to one of three testing sites locally. In a study published on Friday, the researchers, many of whom hailed from Stanford University, noted that the results suggest that Covid-19 could be far more widespread than the official counts suggest. Specifically, they estimate that between 2.5% and 4.2% of people in Santa Clara County may have antibodies. (The range is a result of different models used to extrapolate the test results to a representative population.) “These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50 (to) 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases,” the authors wrote. 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases??? It's a small test of 3300 people. But Dr. Fauci was talking about 50-75%% could be asymptomatic cases. I don't think we will end up seeing an 85-fold asymptomatic cases throughout the country, but I think this as the Germany test are showing that there is growing evidence that there are many more people that have been infected with the virus then what is being reported. Which I think is more good than bad news. It would mean that the mortality rates are lower than initially feared. I initially said that I believed it was going to end up being between .25%-.5% when it's all said and done. I'm leaning more towards .2% - .4% If we can get a really good grasp of the true mortality rate before October and it falls below .4%. Then I think we need to seriously rethink our social distancing policies. 2
MILFHUNTER#518 Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 59 minutes ago, BillStime said: Typical Trumphole - can’t defend so deflect! You still didn't answer the question. 1
shoshin Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Deranged Rhino said: That’s from yesterday. What they voted to do was force the governor to follow the Open America guidelines. Wolf threatened to veto that. He’s talking now about his plan to reopen so I suspect there’s more to come. Sounds like his plan has three somewhat similar phases from the tweets but I’ll wait to see it. 1
BillStime Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, MILFHUNTER#518 said: You still didn't answer the question. Putin doesn't pay me to answer questions.
Deranged Rhino Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, shoshin said: That’s from yesterday. What they voted to do was force the governor to follow the Open America guidelines. Wolf threatened to veto that. He’s talking now about his plan to reopen so I suspect there’s more to come. Sounds like his plan has three somewhat similar phases from the tweets but I’ll wait to see it. I saw that after I posted and others commented. It was before my coffee, I blame that. 2
snafu Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 (edited) 35 minutes ago, Magox said: @shoshin Interesting antibody study out of Santa Clara California 85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases??? It's a small test of 3300 people. But Dr. Fauci was talking about 50-75%% could be asymptomatic cases. I don't think we will end up seeing an 85-fold asymptomatic cases throughout the country, but I think this as the Germany test are showing that there is growing evidence that there are many more people that have been infected with the virus then what is being reported. Which I think is more good than bad news. It would mean that the mortality rates are lower than initially feared. I initially said that I believed it was going to end up being between .25%-.5% when it's all said and done. I'm leaning more towards .2% - .4% If we can get a really good grasp of the true mortality rate before October and it falls below .4%. Then I think we need to seriously rethink our social distancing policies. The optimist in me thinks that whoever’s making decisions know that there are likely a lot more infected people out there and pushing out the re-opening dates is timed to when they project to be much closer to herd status. Even if it is 25% higher, then NYC is pretty close to having herd immunity. Thats the optimistic take I’ve got. Edit: 25x higher not 25% higher. Edited April 17, 2020 by snafu 1
shoshin Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 I’m all for any good news. But this thing would have to be the most contagious MF on the planet to have infected that many people that quickly. So I remain a bit suspicious. 2
Buffalo Bills Fan Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, Deranged Rhino said: I think golf might be one of the safest things to do without a crowd. Shocked they closed golf courses. Def should reopen them.
snafu Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 1 minute ago, shoshin said: I’m all for any good news. But this thing would have to be the most contagious MF on the planet to have infected that many people that quickly. So I remain a bit suspicious. TDS-16 infected half the country in one evening! So, Covid-19 would be less infectious than that. 3 4
MILFHUNTER#518 Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 29 minutes ago, Deranged Rhino said: More on the above study (thread) That twitter thread was a helluva read 1
Magox Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, snafu said: The optimist in me thinks that whoever’s making decisions know that there are likely a lot more infected people out there and pushing out the re-opening dates is timed to when they project to be much closer to herd status. Even if it is 25% higher, then NYC is pretty close to having herd immunity. Thats the optimistic take I’ve got. New York has around 225,000 confirmed cases. This test is showing 50-85 times greater may have it. Imagine if you have let's say 25 times greater. That would be over 5,625,000 cases. You would be getting pretty close to herd immunity levels. That would be good news on that front, but I think what would be even better news is that the mortality rate would be dramatically lower than the confirmed test rate count. Which based off that data, you could change up public policy. 3 minutes ago, shoshin said: I’m all for any good news. But this thing would have to be the most contagious MF on the planet to have infected that many people that quickly. So I remain a bit suspicious. I think there is a decent chance that what might be the most dangerous part of this VIRUS is how contagious it is. It could end up being 10 times more contagious than the regular flu. 1 1
snafu Posted April 17, 2020 Posted April 17, 2020 Just now, Magox said: New York has around 225,000 confirmed cases. This test is showing 50-85 times greater may have it. Imagine if you have let's say 25 times greater. That would be over 5,625,000 cases. You would be getting pretty close to herd immunity levels. That would be good news on that front, but I think what would be even better news is that the mortality rate would be dramatically lower than the confirmed test rate count. Which based off that data, you could change up public policy. Thats my take. I was trying to do the numbers yesterday (I’m no statistician) but in NYS they trported about 7,500 cases day over day. Extrapolated out to May 15 is when I was figuring they figured herd — considering a 10x rate of error. Like you say, if 25x, then they obvioulsly get there a lot quicker. NYC getting hit hard and coming out quickest is actually better for the rest of the country, in my view. 2 1
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