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The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19


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1 minute ago, Nanker said:

Those most at risk in nursing homes are already dead Alf. 

 

So ok to have visitors at nursing homes and caregivers without PPE  and regular covid testing  ?

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1 minute ago, ALF said:

 

So ok to have visitors at nursing homes and caregivers without PPE  and regular covid testing  ?

You really are nuts, aren’t you. 
After the governors of NY, NJ, and MA MURDERED OVER 30,000 of them unnecessarily, it’s proper to take reasonable precautions. And that’s what’s being done NOW. Again, most of those at greatest risk were wiped out by those governor’s actions. They’re despicable.  

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37 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

 

Hmmmmm a the number of cases of a highly infectious disease are increasing?  Say it ain't so.  Why are the deaths not increasing at the same rate? 

 

Many high risk people already dead (heterogeneity of the population's reactions), better treatments, better protection of at-risk people, other passive measures like distancing/washing/masks. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Nanker said:

You really are nuts, aren’t you. 
After the governors of NY, NJ, and MA MURDERED OVER 30,000 of them unnecessarily, it’s proper to take reasonable precautions. And that’s what’s being done NOW. Again, most of those at greatest risk were wiped out by those governor’s actions. They’re despicable.  

 

Yep hindsight is 20/20 

 

Did the governors know at the start  it was ok to have visitors , caregivers needed PPE and was there even a covid test for them  ?

 

Sending covid patients back to nursing homes from hospitals was the disaster that I don't understand.

 

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18 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

Sending covid patients back to nursing homes from hospitals was the disaster that I don't understand.

 

 

This was a bad decision but...in NYC's defense, they had no room in the hospitals and couldn't send seniors to the tents in central park. The ship was for non-Covid and not under the control of NYC. The hospitals needed a lot of coordination to set up a covid hospital and they were busy just dealing with active patients. 

 

No doubt it was bad but in the moment, the situation was a monkey f@cking a football. Vote Cuomo/deBlasio out by all means for doing the wrong thing but I'm not so arrogant as to think I might not have done the same faced with no other good choices. Nursing homes are after all care facilities. It was a clusterF of a moment and the rest of the country benefits from the ugly NYC experiment. The other things that came out of NYC that are very good were a lot of excellent treatment protocols--but those only came AFTER a lot of people died. 

 

We are figuring a lot of this out on the fly. 

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1 hour ago, GG said:

 

You forgot drinking fish tank cleaner in your list of hoaxes.  You're slipping.

 

Fake news. 

2 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

That was my point. Blaming Cuomo for NYS is like blaming Trump for NJ and PA. What happened in March and April was largely unavoidable *in the moment.* In retrospect, we could have done a lot of things better including not putting patients on their backs and rushing to use ventilators, but we just didn't know. I didn't see armies of people advocating for other mitigations and treatments--hell, doctors weren't even pushing for masks for the most part back until mid-April

 

Now, however, we know a lot better. The lack of unity and leadership is astonishing. Jesus, the president was getting attaboys this week for wearing a mask like he discovered a cure. It's July for *****'s sake. Is it some wonder that most people here seem to think masks are BS when the president won't even do the obvious? 

 

Amen. 

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54 minutes ago, ALF said:

 

I'm going to guess high risk people like at nursing homes are now better protected. Better treatment now and younger patients do better.

 

I know this may be crass but I also think those that are highest risk and not properly protected are dead already. 

36 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

Many high risk people already dead (heterogeneity of the population's reactions), better treatments, better protection of at-risk people, other passive measures like distancing/washing/masks. 

 

 

 

Funny how neither of you suggested it due to the higher test rates. 

 

How are the passive measures keeping the death rates down but not the positive diagnosis?  Shouldn't those passive measures reduce the positive results not increase them??  If the virus is going to kill you wearing a mask before or during the illness is not going to reduce the probability of you dying. 

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39 minutes ago, Chef Jim said:

Funny how neither of you suggested it due to the higher test rates. 

 

How are the passive measures keeping the death rates down but not the positive diagnosis?  Shouldn't those passive measures reduce the positive results not increase them??  If the virus is going to kill you wearing a mask before or during the illness is not going to reduce the probability of you dying. 

 

You're all over the map here. 

 

In much of the northeast, cases as measured, and likely cases in reality, are down. So I expect we are seeing fewer cases. 

 

In other places, cases are rising. 

 

Our national %positive is a pretty useless statistic at the moment, much like it was in March when people were having Spring Break orgies without (Covid, not syphillis) consequence in Florida while NYC was racking up deaths.

 

If you believe that in March/April, we were undercounting positives in the northeast by 10-20x, and are currently undercounting by 5-6x, we are seeing the positive effect of passive measures, especially in places that take them more seriously (the people, not the law-makers). We are clearly seeing good results because the elderly are not contracting the virus at the shocking rate they were early in the pandemic. And as we keep hearing, this is increasingly a disease of the younger people (unmasked more, less distant, etc.). So clearly the passive measures are working. Not sure how you can think otherwise. 

 

 

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1 hour ago, shoshin said:

 

This was a bad decision but...in NYC's defense, they had no room in the hospitals and couldn't send seniors to the tents in central park. The ship was for non-Covid and not under the control of NYC. The hospitals needed a lot of coordination to set up a covid hospital and they were busy just dealing with active patients. 

 

No doubt it was bad but in the moment, the situation was a monkey f@cking a football. Vote Cuomo/deBlasio out by all means for doing the wrong thing but I'm not so arrogant as to think I might not have done the same faced with no other good choices. Nursing homes are after all care facilities. It was a clusterF of a moment and the rest of the country benefits from the ugly NYC experiment. The other things that came out of NYC that are very good were a lot of excellent treatment protocols--but those only came AFTER a lot of people died. 

 

We are figuring a lot of this out on the fly. 

 

The hospital ship was supposed to be for NON-COVID patients, but they were sent COVID patients anyway, so that plan changed and there were several hundred available beds for nursing home patients on the ship.  (IIRC, only 77 patients went to the hospital ship & only 3 went to the Javits Center; which could've worked wonders to keep non-COVID Nursing Home patients COVID-free.)

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44 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

The hospital ship was supposed to be for NON-COVID patients, but they were sent COVID patients anyway, so that plan changed and there were several hundred available beds for nursing home patients on the ship.  (IIRC, only 77 patients went to the hospital ship & only 3 went to the Javits Center; which could've worked wonders to keep non-COVID Nursing Home patients COVID-free.)

At least put it in context.....Trump sent the ship there for a trophy moment....then to be a total dick...would not allow CV patients on it ...for what ...7-10 days...then acquiesced after it was totally apparent what a total trash move it was...

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14 minutes ago, TH3 said:

At least put it in context.....Trump sent the ship there for a trophy moment....then to be a total dick...would not allow CV patients on it ...for what ...7-10 days...then acquiesced after it was totally apparent what a total trash move it was...

 

The original plan as of when the ship docked was to use the hospital ship to take non-COVID patients so the COVID patients could be kept together and non-COVID patients wouldn't come in contact with it. 

 

No data on why that plan flipped.  News reports made it seem like that was an 'oops' on the part of the people running logistics but don't know that that was the case.

 

Also don't know why neither the ship non convention center was utilized in any meaningful way.  But would really know to know why that was.

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1 hour ago, Taro T said:

 

The hospital ship was supposed to be for NON-COVID patients, but they were sent COVID patients anyway, so that plan changed and there were several hundred available beds for nursing home patients on the ship.  (IIRC, only 77 patients went to the hospital ship & only 3 went to the Javits Center; which could've worked wonders to keep non-COVID Nursing Home patients COVID-free.)

 

You say that like they could have coordinated that easily and had the organization to do so. This isn't like pushing the armies around the Risk board. 

 

Every medical person in NYC was in an all-hands-on-deck moment. The hospitals has hundreds of retired doctors joining their staffs. Setting up the JAvits Center as a full medical operation was NEVER going to happen. They had tents in Central Park too. 

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3 hours ago, shoshin said:

 

You're all over the map here. 

 

In much of the northeast, cases as measured, and likely cases in reality, are down. So I expect we are seeing fewer cases. 

 

In other places, cases are rising. 

 

Our national %positive is a pretty useless statistic at the moment, much like it was in March when people were having Spring Break orgies without (Covid, not syphillis) consequence in Florida while NYC was racking up deaths.

 

If you believe that in March/April, we were undercounting positives in the northeast by 10-20x, and are currently undercounting by 5-6x, we are seeing the positive effect of passive measures, especially in places that take them more seriously (the people, not the law-makers). We are clearly seeing good results because the elderly are not contracting the virus at the shocking rate they were early in the pandemic. And as we keep hearing, this is increasingly a disease of the younger people (unmasked more, less distant, etc.). So clearly the passive measures are working. Not sure how you can think otherwise. 

 

 


Cases aren’t rising, more people are being tested.

 

If you started issuing IQ tests to the population at large, you’d suddenly notice an epidemic of morons.  There would be just as many morons as there were before, but now you’d be able to identify them without having to listen to them tell you about a spike in Covid cases.

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35 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

You say that like they could have coordinated that easily and had the organization to do so. This isn't like pushing the armies around the Risk board. 

 

Every medical person in NYC was in an all-hands-on-deck moment. The hospitals has hundreds of retired doctors joining their staffs. Setting up the JAvits Center as a full medical operation was NEVER going to happen. They had tents in Central Park too. 

 

Umm, the Navy Hospital Ship arrived on March 30.  You really think that nobody in the NYC medical community could've figured out the logistics of using it for care of hospital discharged nursing home patients that were still contagious within 2 - 3 WEEKS?  IMHO somebody should've been able to figure that out in that sort of a time frame.  Had they started using that ship (or other available facilities) to house them by the 15th-20th they could've saved 1,000's of lives.

 

Not giving them flack for making poor decisions in the heat of the moment.  But at some point the leaders have to step back and say 'holy ####, we have to rethink what we're doing.' And that can't happen 1-1/2 months after assigning death sentences to the most vulnerable IMHO.

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58 minutes ago, TakeYouToTasker said:


Cases aren’t rising, more people are being tested.

 

We don't know that for sure, but that seems likely, yes. 

 

I beleive that's at least in part due to the passive measures around masking and distancing. 

 

49 minutes ago, Taro T said:

 

Umm, the Navy Hospital Ship arrived on March 30.  You really think that nobody in the NYC medical community could've figured out the logistics of using it for care of hospital discharged nursing home patients that were still contagious within 2 - 3 WEEKS?  IMHO somebody should've been able to figure that out in that sort of a time frame.  Had they started using that ship (or other available facilities) to house them by the 15th-20th they could've saved 1,000's of lives.

 

Not giving them flack for making poor decisions in the heat of the moment.  But at some point the leaders have to step back and say 'holy ####, we have to rethink what we're doing.' And that can't happen 1-1/2 months after assigning death sentences to the most vulnerable IMHO.

 

So you're saying that experts with a handle on all the local and national resources, sitting outside the actual line of fire, would have made better decisions? 

 

Agreed: National response and leadership would have made a huge difference. 

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39 minutes ago, shoshin said:

 

We don't know that for sure, but that seems likely, yes. 

 

I beleive that's at least in part due to the passive measures around masking and distancing. 

 

 

So you're saying that experts with a handle on all the local and national resources, sitting outside the actual line of fire, would have made better decisions? 

 

Agreed: National response and leadership would have made a huge difference. 

 

Am saying the people that were in charge should have done better.  (And, as you know, per the way our government is set up, those that were legally in charge were in those positions.)

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1 hour ago, Taro T said:

 

Umm, the Navy Hospital Ship arrived on March 30.  You really think that nobody in the NYC medical community could've figured out the logistics of using it for care of hospital discharged nursing home patients that were still contagious within 2 - 3 WEEKS?  IMHO somebody should've been able to figure that out in that sort of a time frame.  Had they started using that ship (or other available facilities) to house them by the 15th-20th they could've saved 1,000's of lives.

 

Not giving them flack for making poor decisions in the heat of the moment.  But at some point the leaders have to step back and say 'holy ####, we have to rethink what we're doing.' And that can't happen 1-1/2 months after assigning death sentences to the most vulnerable IMHO.

The King ordered it so and threatened administration if they refused. They were against it based on the opinions of the medical staff at those facilities.  That said Tut investigated himself so he did nothing wrong. His single minded refusal to admit he was wrong at the time just as his refusal to admit Trump was right to stop travel from China is why I do blame him for making bad heat of the moment decisions. 

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