THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - All Part of the Process

[loveorhatembillsfan4life]

I’m with you Shaw, great write up. I see the future and we are in great shape. We have talent to work with and if we can tweak some roster spots here or there there is no reason why we won’t be competing for a playoff spot year after year. 

 

I don’t worry about the schedule like some have mentioned. It will be tough but there is no reason why we can’t win any of these games.

 

 

[Stroke 17]

there is a reason that the kick off team runs all the way to the end zone on a kick off. The reason is not for the exercise' it is in case the returner does something wrong like the Texans returner did. There is a reason finishing a play is coached' there is a reason you play to the whistle' the reason is because players make mistakes.  The official in the end zone did not blow a whistle' did not wave the play off ' he got out of the way of the ball because he knew the returner did not do what the rule required. I guarantee belichik would have argued that he coaches his team to finish because some dont know the rules. He would have got his way and he would have been right. Sadly we are the Bills and Bills fans and once again waiting until next year.

[EasternOHBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Does "The Process" have milestones?  Is one and done in the playoffs, considered success by most teams after three years of rebuilding in the modern NFL (and facing a historical easy schedule) ? 

Is the year 4 milestone, win a wild card game? then lose in divisional round?
Then in year 5 win a divisional game and lose the champhionship game?
then in year 6 win the conference and lose the super bowl?

and finally in year 7 win the super bowl?

Because its seems like the process is more about bouncing around from 6-10 to 10-6 by beating bad teams and losing to good ones. 

 

Who was our quarterback 2 years ago?

 

Your point is MEANINGLESS. This is the JOSH ALLEN ERA, YEAR 2.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

14 minutes ago, Buffarukus said:

 

im genuinly interested in what that is? we get OC's that run run pass and we scream this is a modern NFL we need to pass. We pass to much and we should run. we have designed qb runs that get chunk yards and a qb that gets a reception for a TD and thats not innovative? no doubt daboll has made some bad calls but we have to also look at poor execution of these plays as well.

 

i dont share in the hate. ive seen too many poor throws, droped passes and missed blocking assignments mixed with ill timed penalties to say daboll is the biggest problem with the Offense.

An innovative offensive mind creates offense based on the strengths of his players and calls plays based on mismatches they create on defenses. An innovative offensive mind understands how to keep a defense off balance.  From what I've seen from Daboll, 90% of the time I know what he is going to do. Every once in awhile they call an awesome trick play or run some smoothly designed play that works well. Then we go back to a predictable series of plays that stall a drive.

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, Stroke 17 said:

there is a reason that the kick off team runs all the way to the end zone on a kick off. The reason is not for the exercise' it is in case the returner does something wrong like the Texans returner did. There is a reason finishing a play is coached' there is a reason you play to the whistle' the reason is because players make mistakes.  The official in the end zone did not blow a whistle' did not wave the play off ' he got out of the way of the ball because he knew the returner did not do what the rule required. I guarantee belichik would have argued that he coaches his team to finish because some dont know the rules. He would have got his way and he would have been right. Sadly we are the Bills and Bills fans and once again waiting until next year.

And there is a reason that good coaches teach their players the rules.  The Texans' failure was a coaching failure, and the officials gave O'Brien a pass.  

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:

An innovative offensive mind creates offense based on the strengths of his players and calls plays based on mismatches they create on defenses. An innovative offensive mind understands how to keep a defense off balance.  From what I've seen from Daboll, 90% of the time I know what he is going to do. Every once in awhile they call an awesome trick play or run some smoothly designed play that works well. Then we go back to a predictable series of plays that stall a drive.

Another example of a fundamental misunderstanding of how the Bills are being built.  This offense is NOT, primarily, built on the strengths of the players.   Sure, the Bills run the QB because that's a strength, but the plan, obviously the plan, is that the Bills are acquiring players who fit the way they want to play.   It started from the very beginning, with Hyde and Poyer, and it's continuing.   

 

And, the point that people lose sight of all the time, is that McDermott''s continuous improvement philosophy demands that everyone get better - that they learn and study and develop and get better.  McDermott will evaluate Daboll and talk to him about the ways the two of them can get Daboll to improve.  If McDermott concludes that Daboll's growth is maxed out, he'll move on.  But if he believes that Daboll will get better, he'll keep him.   

[Figster]

Leave it to you OP to find a way to bottle up all the emotions the seasons ending has given us, and putting it all in good perspective with another, enjoyable, easy reading Rockpile review. Always a pleasure and on point. Well done.

 

 

Thank you Shaw66

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Another example of a fundamental misunderstanding of how the Bills are being built.  This offense is NOT, primarily, built on the strengths of the players.   Sure, the Bills run the QB because that's a strength, but the plan, obviously the plan, is that the Bills are acquiring players who fit the way they want to play.   It started from the very beginning, with Hyde and Poyer, and it's continuing.   

 

And, the point that people lose sight of all the time, is that McDermott''s continuous improvement philosophy demands that everyone get better - that they learn and study and develop and get better.  McDermott will evaluate Daboll and talk to him about the ways the two of them can get Daboll to improve.  If McDermott concludes that Daboll's growth is maxed out, he'll move on.  But if he believes that Daboll will get better, he'll keep him.   

If this is how they are being built on defense, fine. The defense has done well, but the offensive philosophy of going into a shell with the lead is not going to win games. 

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, BillsRdue said:

If this is how they are being built on defense, fine. The defense has done well, but the offensive philosophy of going into a shell with the lead is not going to win games. 

Where do people come up with this crap?

 

Went into a shell?   What are you talking about?    From the point the Bills went up 16-0 to the end of regulation, the Bills ran 25 plays from scrimmage.  19 passes and 6 runs, including Josh's scrambles as runs.   What about that offensive play selection is "going into a shell"?   

 

The Bills went for it on 4th and 27 with less than two minutes to play.  That's "going into a shell"?   

 

That's just nonsense.  

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, BillsRdue said:

An innovative offensive mind creates offense based on the strengths of his players and calls plays based on mismatches they create on defenses. An innovative offensive mind understands how to keep a defense off balance.  From what I've seen from Daboll, 90% of the time I know what he is going to do. Every once in awhile they call an awesome trick play or run some smoothly designed play that works well. Then we go back to a predictable series of plays that stall a drive.

This.  I have been trying to come up with words about how I feel about Dumboll all season long.  He doesn't understand how to keep a defense off balance.    The defense just about always knows what we are doing based on trends and the package on the field.

Edited January 5, 2020 by Scott7975

[leonbus23]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

People make comments like this all the time.  The comment demonstrates that you aren't listening to what McBeane have been saying since they got to Buffalo.

 

The process is designed to build a team that has sustained long-term success.  That means that they're looking for the kind of success that New Orleans and New England and Kansas City have - that is, success where the team keeps winning even thought the players keep changing.  That's what they mean when they talk about building the right way.  

 

So, for example, the Bills went for quantity instead of quality in free agency in 2019.   Other than Morse, they didn't sign a premier free agent on the offensive line.   They signed a lot of journeymen, expecting to get exactly what they got - decent improvement on the offensive line.  They'll decide that one of two of those guys are keepers, and they'll get some new talent next year.  In other words, they didn't bet the farm with the expectation that they could become a Super Bowl contender in 2019.   

 

It's not an accident that the "Championship Caliber" sign went up late this season.  McDermott sets goals with the expectation that once a goal is achieved, they won't go backward.   The goal for 2019 was to become Playoff Caliber, and when that goal was achieved, the goal was changed.   That sign will stay up now.   Every player on this team now knows that that goal is achievable.  

 

There is nothing that anyone ever has said that this is the seven year slog that you make up to be contrarian.  

 

This is one of the youngest teams in the league, with a lot of cap room and ten draft picks and a process in place designed to generate continuous improvement.   6-10 to 10-6, including conceding a loss in the final game, together with going overtime in a Wildcard game, is substantial improvement.   Just because you're unhappy that your team didn't do better doesn't mean that the Bills are seriously on the move.     

This is all true, but Allen has to get better. That's the most important factor. 

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, leonbus23 said:

This is all true, but Allen has to get better. That's the most important factor. 

No question about that. 

[billsfan1959]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

Very good chance the team wins fewer games next year, based on this years results. 

 

What results, specifically, are predictive of less wins next year?

[yungmack]

Thanks for another season of insightful, level-headed analysis. I have my doubts about whether or not this QB and this staff can get the Bills to "the promised land," but I'm willing to give another year to "the process." As you point out, though the O line was vastly improved, it still isn't first-rate. I agree this will get another round of improvement. I think attention will also be paid to WR. A dominating LB too. But in the end, the biggest area of improvement has to be Josh.

[1st Ammendment NoMas]

58 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Where do people come up with this crap?

Went into a shell?   What are you talking about?    From the point the Bills went up 16-0 to the end of regulation, the Bills ran 25 plays from scrimmage.  19 passes and 6 runs, including Josh's scrambles as runs.   What about that offensive play selection is "going into a shell"?   

The Bills went for it on 4th and 27 with less than two minutes to play.  That's "going into a shell"?   

That's just nonsense.  

Well that was not imaginative. The runs were Gore's 1 yd loss of down plays and most of the passes were Josh throwing the ball away while under immediate pressure. They plays had no design to move the chains. Texas knew what was coming and attacked it and we had no answer until the last desperate FG drive.   We played conservative with the lead and had no sustained success on any drives. It was infuriating to watch the meltdown against a crap defense. We did not attack their weakness. Going into a shell for me means doing the same things over and over, repeating the same mistakes and hoping we get a different result.  If you were impressed with Daboll or the second half offense, you are in the minority.

 

The other problem is that Josh has to learn to protect the football when running. His fumble while we were driving changed the momentum of the game and the offense went into stall mode thereafter.

Edited January 5, 2020 by BillsRdue

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, yungmack said:

Thanks for another season of insightful, level-headed analysis. I have my doubts about whether or not this QB and this staff can get the Bills to "the promised land," but I'm willing to give another year to "the process." As you point out, though the O line was vastly improved, it still isn't first-rate. I agree this will get another round of improvement. I think attention will also be paid to WR. A dominating LB too. But in the end, the biggest area of improvement has to be Josh.

One reason I'm so optimistic is that it's a team game.  The cumulative effect of improvement across the offensive lineup and in the coach should be bigger than the actual improvement of any particular person.    What I mean is that I expect Josh Allen to be significantly better next season, but the statistical improvement will be only partially attributable to his improvement from this season to next season.  

 

If the Bills do upgrade the oline, and I think that that will happen because they will bring in one or two new starters and because at least Ford will be better than this season, then Allen's rushing attack will be better, making play action more effective.  His pass protection will be better.   Allen would have been better, statistically, this season if he'd had those advantages.  So next season he'll have the luxury of those improvements, plus however much he grows, plus however much Daboll's tinkering with offense improves things.  

 

They're all young and growing.  McDermott too.  

 

So I expect Josh to be a lot better, but not simply because he has made strides.  

[Chaos]

16 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

What results, specifically, are predictive of less wins next year?

Our poor record against teams with winning records this year.  And a schedule next year that includes far more teams with winning records. 

Edited January 5, 2020 by Chaos

[Billsfaninto]

I find it odd that some are saying they went conservative when it's clear the opposite is true. They relied on Allen to win it in this game and it is indicative of the entire season. The moment we realized what we had in Singletary he should have been the focal point of the offense. More than that when Allen gets rattled because of the line there needs to be an emphasis on negating the rush and making things easier for Allen. Screens, slants, passes to the flat, hot reads, rolling the pocket, leaving the RB in the backfield (God I miss Fred for this reason. He was elite at recognizing the free rusher). Daboll did none of this with consistency. McD calling out Allen for trying to hard is difficult to square considering how often he's been leaned on to be the guy through the season. If these changes are implemented proactively Allen wouldn't be having to orchestrate comebacks so often. Surround Allen with better talent, actually use that talent and scheme to scenario.

With respect to the defense I may be in the minority but I don't not see an elite unit. I see an excellent bend but don't break unit that did not have to face any type of elite QBing or offenses and benefited from it. (NE is in the same boat) When push comes to shove they can't hold their own against runs up the middle and are inconsistent with pressure. The losses were to teams who shoved them aside (NE, Baltimore and the Eagles game come to mind) and imposed their will on the D as we saw yesterday. They are really really good and willed us to a lot of wins, but have their weaknesses. Shore up the middle. 

[jkeerie]

5 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Our poor record against teams with winning records this year.  And a schedule next year that includes far more teams with winning records. 

I understand your point, but the Bills weren't blown out by anyone.  They were not overmatched by anyone.   They can play with any team now.  If they get better, which I believe they will, who knows?

[billsfan1959]

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Our poor record against teams with winning records this year.  And a schedule next year that includes far more teams with winning records. 

 

Do you plan on factoring in anything else into your equation, like, say, new additions to the team through the draft and free agency, another year of experience and continuity for the young core of existing players, that the actual, not predicted, strength of opponents next year might not be what you think right now, etc.?

 

Or are you just going to stick with that simplistic approach?