Let's for a minute flip the Offense & Defense.... Where would the Bills be?

[Johnnycage46]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

This is where you Fans don't get it......  Defenses & Offenses can change very quickly, but if you have your franchise QB, you are set on offense....  Anyone worry year to year about NO, Seattle, GB, NE, KC or LA's offenses?  You know they will be good year after year & it is then a matter of how good.

 

Conversely let's look @ 2018 defenses & where they are in 2019....  Case in points Chicago, Jacksonville,  Minnesota (again yards allowed).   It is hard to maintain that level and yes the Bills have been right at the top for 2 years, that doesn't mean next year they'll remain there.

It also doesn't mean the O won't progress or that Allen won't progress.  Get it?  And progress is not about some arbitrary number of yards (can you guess that number???).  

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

He is right--a good offense is more sustainable than a good defense.  That said, if the situation was reversed this year, I think the team would have the same record, if not worse.

 

As far as long term outlook, if the goal is to rely on defense year in and year out, we would be in trouble. But we aren't. JA has made leaps forward, Dabol has schemed a system that covers most of the teams flaws, and the offense on a whole is on the way up.  I think this whole foundation is wildly sustainable.   

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Billsfan1972 said:

How every team in the NFL is capable of a 300 yard game except the Bills is what is mind boggling.

 

Didn't you just acknowledge in another thread this isn't even true?

 

But OK, suppose it is, now what's your answer?  Maybe the Bills drafted a chronically inaccurate "joke of a 1st round draft pick" "athlete playing QB" who will never be a capable NFL passer. 

 

Does that notion please you?

 

The other possibility is that they have a young, developing QB with a young, developing OL playing in an extremely complex offense and it's just going to take time to gel and put a few more pieces in place.  It will either happen, or it won't. 

 

There are pass plays with WR open every game that are left on the field.  There are three reasons: 1) Allen doesn't see 'em or makes a different read 2) He throws a catchable ball but it's dropped or not brought in 3) he misfires. 

 

As others have pointed out, the Bills also seem to eschew or not use the plays that pad the passing game stats....the screens, the checkdowns to RBs and TEs

 

Why is it so important to you?  Were the 9-7 Tennessee Titans a better team because Marcus Mariota passed for 305 yds?  OH, I get it - it's all about your personal entertainment, and what you consider "fun to watch"

 

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

He is right--a good offense is more sustainable than a good defense.  That said, if the situation was reversed this year, I think the team would have the same record, if not worse.

 

As far as long term outlook, if the goal is to rely on defense year in and year out, we would be in trouble. But we aren't. JA has made leaps forward, Dabol has schemed a system that covers most of the teams flaws, and the offense on a whole is on the way up.  I think this whole foundation is wildly sustainable.   

 

I'm actually not sure that's true.  A good offense, and a good defense, are both sustainable.  It's a great, shut-down defense that's hard to maintain, as is a great, league-leading, fire-on-all-cylinders offense.

 

For the rest, I hope you're right.  Allen took a step this year.  He needs to take another step.

[SoCal Deek]

I’m not sure why some Bills fan are surprised by the rankings of the offense and defense. They have a defensive minded head coach with a veteran mentor in Leslie Frazier by his side. On the hand they have Daboll sitting in a room by himself with no mentor to bounce things off, trying to be competitive with a super young QB and a far less than adequate WR Corp. You vote with your feet. You get what you pay for. Your treasure is where your heart is.  Etc.

[Jasovon]

This is easy, we would be out of the playoffs like all 5 of the top 5 passing teams this year. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 

When we hand the ball back 2X's in the final 5 minutes to give them a chance to tie, or get the ball with 2 minutes & 3 TO's in a tight game at the end of the first half and play to run out the clock?  Yep probably.....

 

And if the Bills lose because they were conservative on Offense or were unprepared on that side of the ball (as they were vs. Balt & NE), how will you react?

 

I know.....  It is all part of the process & 2020 (or 2021 or 2022) & it will all be okay.... 

I try to avoid over reacting. if they lose then I look forward to the draft/fa and adding more pieces and be grateful they made the post season and look to 2020 to be an even better season.

 

unlike yourself who seems to remain in that dark cloud, regardless of outcome.

 

have a nice day, and can I say, happy new year!

Edited December 27, 2019 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Billsfan1972]

6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Didn't you just acknowledge in another thread this isn't even true?

 

But OK, suppose it is, now what's your answer?  Maybe the Bills drafted a chronically inaccurate "joke of a 1st round draft pick" "athlete playing QB" who will never be a capable NFL passer. 

 

Does that notion please you?

 

The other possibility is that they have a young, developing QB with a young, developing OL playing in an extremely complex offense and it's just going to take time to gel and put a few more pieces in place.  It will either happen, or it won't. 

 

There are pass plays with WR open every game that are left on the field.  There are three reasons: 1) Allen doesn't see 'em or makes a different read 2) He throws a catchable ball but it's dropped or not brought in 3) he misfires. 

 

As others have pointed out, the Bills also seem to eschew or not use the plays that pad the passing game stats....the screens, the checkdowns to RBs and TEs

 

Why is it so important to you?  Were the 9-7 Tennessee Titans a better team because Marcus Mariota passed for 305 yds?  OH, I get it - it's all about your personal entertainment, and what you consider "fun to watch"

 

 

 

 

 

I'm actually not sure that's true.  A good offense, and a good defense, are both sustainable.  It's a great, shut-down defense that's hard to maintain, as is a great, league-leading, fire-on-all-cylinders offense.

 

For the rest, I hope you're right.  Allen took a step this year.  He needs to take another step.

I said the only team that did not do it in 2018 (other then the Bills) were the historically bad Arizona Cardinals (and look how quickly that has changed).  That is the only team....  

 

And yes it is more fun to watch.....  BTW in 2017 that Mariota 300 yard game was a W!!!!

 

And you are wrong about the Offense, as good offenses are almost 100% due to the QB & as long as he is at or near his prime the Offense is maintained.  Of course this year we saw Big Ben injured and Pitt plummet....  

 

So are the Bills a great shutdown defense or not?  

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

15 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Didn't you just acknowledge in another thread this isn't even true?

 

But OK, suppose it is, now what's your answer?  Maybe the Bills drafted a chronically inaccurate "joke of a 1st round draft pick" "athlete playing QB" who will never be a capable NFL passer. 

 

Does that notion please you?

 

The other possibility is that they have a young, developing QB with a young, developing OL playing in an extremely complex offense and it's just going to take time to gel and put a few more pieces in place.  It will either happen, or it won't. 

 

There are pass plays with WR open every game that are left on the field.  There are three reasons: 1) Allen doesn't see 'em or makes a different read 2) He throws a catchable ball but it's dropped or not brought in 3) he misfires. 

 

As others have pointed out, the Bills also seem to eschew or not use the plays that pad the passing game stats....the screens, the checkdowns to RBs and TEs

 

Why is it so important to you?  Were the 9-7 Tennessee Titans a better team because Marcus Mariota passed for 305 yds?  OH, I get it - it's all about your personal entertainment, and what you consider "fun to watch"

 

 

 

 

 

I'm actually not sure that's true.  A good offense, and a good defense, are both sustainable.  It's a great, shut-down defense that's hard to maintain, as is a great, league-leading, fire-on-all-cylinders offense.

 

For the rest, I hope you're right.  Allen took a step this year.  He needs to take another step.

 

Maybe put it this way: it is easier to sustain an offense that can carry the team than it is to sustain a defense that can carry a team. 

54 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

 

When we hand the ball back 2X's in the final 5 minutes to give them a chance to tie, or get the ball with 2 minutes & 3 TO's in a tight game at the end of the first half and play to run out the clock?  Yep probably.....

 

And if the Bills lose because they were conservative on Offense or were unprepared on that side of the ball (as they were vs. Balt & NE), how will you react?

 

I know.....  It is all part of the process & 2020 (or 2021 or 2022) & it will all be okay.... 

 

So you don't want to the staff to coach to THIS team's strengths? You want them to pretend they are coaching a different team, with different strengths? Generic analytic presumptions do not apply universally to every team in the league. Pretending they do puts teams in unnecessarily difficult positions. 

[Billsfan1972]

5 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

Maybe put it this way: it is easier to sustain an offense that can carry the team than it is to sustain a defense that can carry a team. 

 

So you don't want to the staff to coach to THIS team's strengths? You want them to pretend they are coaching a different team, with different strengths? Generic analytic presumptions do not apply universally to every team in the league. Pretending they do puts teams in unnecessarily difficult positions. 

Again I think the Offense is much much better then it shows & the results are because of McD's style, bad hires & Daboll's inability to game call or adjust.  I was especially appalled how bad they were vs. Baltimore & allowed the Baltimore defense to dictate the game (drops didn't help either).....  

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

Just now, Billsfan1972 said:

Again I think the Offense is much much better then it shows & the results are because of McD's style, bad hires & Daboll's inability to game call or adjust.  I was especially appalled how bad they were vs. Baltimore & allowed the Baltimore defense to dictate the game (drops didn't help either).....  

 

I think that is demonstrably untrue--even a casual watch of any Bills' game reveals guy running open all over the field. The answers are universally there, and Josh just can't hit them. That is ok, he is young and is getting better, but if you think Daboll doesn't make good calls or "adjust," you just flat out do not know what you are looking at. It is true the Bills are 8th in turnovers, but Josh Allen, according to PFF, throws the highest percentage of intercept-able balls. Think what you want about PFF's grades, but that particular stat rings true. That means he makes bad throws, many of which are unforced. If you press throws to stay aggressive in that context, you are inviting trouble.  A perfect example is the Steelers game, which was in essence a race to see who would have the fewest turnovers. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

16 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

I said the only team that did not do it in 2018 (other then the Bills) were the historically bad Arizona Cardinals (and look how quickly that has changed).  That is the only team....  

 

Your original contention was that the Bills were the only team that hadn't had a 300 yd game in 3 seasons.  Look at the 2017 Ravens, 2017 Browns, 2017 Colts, 2019 Steelers and I haven't even gotten halfway through the AFC yet.   You were quite plain and simply mistaken, and unwilling to provide sources or verify.

 

What, are we narrowing it to 2018 now, the year that Allen was a highly raw rookie thrown into the fire with a bunch of WR who are out of the NFL now, Zay Jones, and a OL made of Swiss Cheese?  Do you have to ask why that happened?

 

I think you need to step away from this.

 

16 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And yes it is more fun to watch.....  BTW in 2017 that Mariota 300 yard game was a W!!!!

 

Did it make them a better team?

 

 

[Mango]

Hey f we were to really flip the script, based on how hot and cold Allen can be. We would have a BAL or KC powered offense, with a similar defense to our Pettine led D’s. Can’t get off the field, high TO and sack rate. 
 

That said, that is probably the type of D you want with a high scoring offense. 

[Billsfan1972]

3 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

I think that is demonstrably untrue--even a casual watch of any Bills' game reveals guy running open all over the field. The answers are universally there, and Josh just can't hit them. That is ok, he is young and is getting better, but if you think Daboll doesn't make good calls or "adjust," you just flat out do not know what you are looking at. It is true the Bills are 8th in turnovers, but Josh Allen, according to PFF, throws the highest percentage of intercept-able balls. Think what you want about PFF's grades, but that particular stat rings true. That means he makes bad throws, many of which are unforced. If you press throws to stay aggressive in that context, you are inviting trouble.  A perfect example is the Steelers game, which was in essence a race to see who would have the fewest turnovers. 

Interesting because I did not see that vs. Baltimore & a great video/thread here showing how wrong they were about Josh that game.  I also thought they did a lousy job reacting to blitz after blitz.

 

As for open receivers I was going to post & ask how All-22's look for 31 other teams.  I bet you'll see open receivers on every All-22, but the question is whether Josh is worse at recognizing them or not good at reading defenses, as I don't know.  If the read is Beasley & Brown is wide open (as seen vs. NE) was that a bad read by Allen or was the pass meant for Cole & Brown being open meant nothing.  

 

As for the highest % of interceptable balls, I call bull, as at least since the NE game, I've really seen very few.

 

Another stat I'd like to see is catching contested passes, which I seldom see the Bills do, same as catching tough passes (not drops, but catches that could be made), which again I don't see the Bills doing.....

[Billsfan1972]

18 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Your original contention was that the Bills were the only team that hadn't had a 300 yd game in 3 seasons.  Look at the 2017 Ravens, 2017 Browns, 2017 Colts, 2019 Steelers and I haven't even gotten halfway through the AFC yet.   You were quite plain and simply mistaken, and unwilling to provide sources or verify.

 

What, are we narrowing it to 2018 now, the year that Allen was a highly raw rookie thrown into the fire with a bunch of WR who are out of the NFL now, Zay Jones, and a OL made of Swiss Cheese?  Do you have to ask why that happened?

 

I think you need to step away from this.

 

 

Did it make them a better team?

 

 

Wrong 2017 Browns did it (took 2 qB's, but they did) .....  2017 Colts they did vs. SF.  You got me on Baltimore (my bad)....

Yes & Pitt lost Big Ben game 1 this year, so pretty excusable imo.....

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201710080clt.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201709170rav.htm

 

You are wrong.....  And the Bills have gone 2017, 2018 & 1 game to go in 2019.....  Unacceptable & pretty sad....

 

Edited December 27, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[Rc2catch]

Basically it sounds like you want us to be the new Tampa bay buccaneers. Air it out all over the field non stop and ignore the other facets of the game.  Cause all your arguments don’t make me think of Kansas City or LA they make me think of the Winston led Bucs.  I feel duped you started this topic and basically just wanted to argue we’ve made the wrong hires and Allen can’t succeed with this staff. Tampa has a high powered passing attack and poor defense and Winston has 400 yard games not 300. Would that suit your narrative better? 

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

3 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Interesting because I did not see that vs. Baltimore & a great video/thread here showing how wrong they were about Josh that game.  I also thought they did a lousy job reacting to blitz after blitz.

 

As for open receivers I was going to post & ask how All-22's look for 31 other teams.  I bet you'll see open receivers on every All-22, but the question is whether Josh is worse at recognizing them or not good at reading defenses, as I don't know.  If the read is Beasley & Brown is wide open (as seen vs. NE) was that a bad read by Allen or was the pass meant for Cole & Brown being open meant nothing.  

 

As for the highest % of interceptable balls, I call bull, as at least since the NE game, I've really seen very few.

 

Another stat I'd like to see is catching contested passes, which I seldom see the Bills do, same as catching tough passes (not drops, but catches that could be made), which again I don't see the Bills doing.....

 

You aren't wrong, there really is no way to know where the read is supposed to be. We do not know if open guys are off-read, or simply the next read that JA doesn't make (we also don't know what the checks are at the line of scrimmage). But you don't really know either, so to take such a  hard stance on Daboll is unfair. It reveals that you apply a results based framework, i.e. if the offense sputters, it falls on the OC, full stop. While that is a primary concern, it ignores mountains of context (such as the "QB reads" example). And that context tells us, truly, whether the blame falls on Daboll or elsewhere. Conversely, since we DO know that JA misses wide open guys with some frequency, it is more fair to say that the short coming is JA, not Daboll. 

 

Lets not use the term "intercept-able." Lets just think about it in terms of accuracy. I think you can acknowledge that 2 or 3 times a game, JA throws a wildly incomplete ball. Balls that aren't even close to being catch-able. Even if they aren't near a defender, they are extremely troublesome.  Its solely luck that doesn't cause them to be intercepted. Asking JA to throw more increases the number of wildly inaccurate passes. Asking him to do that is like playing with fire. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Wrong 2017 Browns did it (took 2 qB's, but they did)

 

 

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

.....  2017 Colts they did vs. SF. 

 

 

You may be looking at total and not net passing yards.  Sorry, sacks matter.

 

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

You are wrong.....  And the Bills have gone 2017, 2018 & 1 game to go in 2019.....  Unacceptable & pretty sad....

 

You are entitled to your opinion. 

You've been demonstrated wrong about the "every other team has had a 300 yd passing game every year since 2017 except the Bills".  You need to let that go now.

 

6 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

Basically it sounds like you want us to be the new Tampa bay buccaneers. Air it out all over the field non stop and ignore the other facets of the game.  Cause all your arguments don’t make me think of Kansas City or LA they make me think of the Winston led Bucs.  I feel duped you started this topic and basically just wanted to argue we’ve made the wrong hires and Allen can’t succeed with this staff. Tampa has a high powered passing attack and poor defense and Winston has 400 yard games not 300. Would that suit your narrative better? 

 

I agree, misleading thread; looked like it was going to be some kind of speculation about what moves the Bills could have made to be Killer on offense instead of D

 

Instead just another round of "shots fired" in an inane "we must have 300 yd games, it's unacceptable and sad that we don't because we're the only team that doesn't....oh, wait, well, not the only team that doesn't but the other teams don't matter for *reasons*.....and the teams that do aren't better teams, but that doesn't matter either for nebulous  *reasons*

[Billsfan1972]

14 minutes ago, JoshAllenHasBigHands said:

 

You aren't wrong, there really is no way to know where the read is supposed to be. We do not know if open guys are off-read, or simply the next read that JA doesn't make (we also don't know what the checks are at the line of scrimmage). But you don't really know either, so to take such a  hard stance on Daboll is unfair. It reveals that you apply a results based framework, i.e. if the offense sputters, it falls on the OC, full stop. While that is a primary concern, it ignores mountains of context (such as the "QB reads" example). And that context tells us, truly, whether the blame falls on Daboll or elsewhere. Conversely, since we DO know that JA misses wide open guys with some frequency, it is more fair to say that the short coming is JA, not Daboll. 

 

Lets not use the term "intercept-able." Lets just think about it in terms of accuracy. I think you can acknowledge that 2 or 3 times a game, JA throws a wildly incomplete ball. Balls that aren't even close to being catch-able. Even if they aren't near a defender, they are extremely troublesome.  Its solely luck that doesn't cause them to be intercepted. Asking JA to throw more increases the number of wildly inaccurate passes. Asking him to do that is like playing with fire. 

And if you are right, then the issue is Allen is not the QB for the team or the future (as we see Tennessee has decided with Mariotta).  I have banged the same drum continually that the Bills do need to open up the offense primarily because the future is Allen (the reason he was drafted #7) & while I'm convinced he is a great QB, maybe I am wrong & Daboll & the coaching is covering up for him & that will lead to failure in the future.

 

That is not a good thing for the Bills & why I want them to work hard to see if he is or is not the future.

 

BTW we all too know PFF's anti-Allen stance so I expect every incompletion not OB was considered interceptable.......

 

This is what happened with Mariotta (of just a lousy/wrong OC, though Tannehill may have proven that wrong) & certainly saw that with Blake Bortles & Jax.  And applaud Arizona for making the decision on Rosen.  Plenty of other examples.

 

I have said this over & over.

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

 

 

You may be looking at total and not net passing yards.  Sorry, sacks matter.

 

 

You are entitled to your opinion. 

You've been demonstrated wrong about the "every other team has had a 300 yd passing game every year since 2017 except the Bills".  You need to let that go now.

 

 

I agree, misleading thread; looked like it was going to be some kind of speculation about what moves the Bills could have made to be Killer on offense instead of D

 

Instead just another round of "shots fired" in an inane "we must have 300 yd games, it's unacceptable and sad that we don't because we're the only team that doesn't....oh, wait, well, not the only team that doesn't but the other teams don't matter for *reasons*.....and the teams that do aren't better teams, but that doesn't matter either for nebulous  *reasons*

I proved you wrong & then you use the NET argument.....  The Bills don't need to worry about the net figure, because they havcen't crossed the 300 yard line....  Keep trying....  

Edited December 27, 2019 by Billsfan1972

[JoshAllenHasBigHands]

1 minute ago, Billsfan1972 said:

And if you are right, then the issue is Allen is not the QB for the team or the future (as we see Tennessee has decided with Mariotta).  I have banged the same drum continually that the Bills do need to open up the offense primarily because the future is Allen & while I'm convinced he is a great QB, maybe I wrong & Daboll & the offense is covering up for him & that will lead to failure in the future.

 

This is what happened with Mariotta (of just a lousy/wrong OC, though Tannehill may have proven that wrong) & certainly saw that with Blake Bortles & Jax.

 

I have said this over & over.

 

I am all for this ride or die approach next year.  Right now, I want to see how far they can go doing what they have been doing. I don't think the playoffs is the time to redefine our entire offensive identity. 

 

Next year, it will be time. JA will have had some time with the guys around him; he will have been in the league for two years; he will have seen every defensive formation available. Next year, he needs to pull it together. I have zero interest in the coaching staff finding ways to protect him. He needs to take the big leap.  I think he will, I truly do. 

[Putin]

36 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Again I think the Offense is much much better then it shows & the results are because of McD's style, bad hires & Daboll's inability to game call or adjust.  I was especially appalled how bad they were vs. Baltimore & allowed the Baltimore defense to dictate the game (drops didn't help either).....  

 

You pick a Baltimore game to make your point ? How well did Houston’s offense performed against Baltimore ? How many points have they scored ?