WR Competition - Snap Count Analysis game 3

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, folz said:

 

I'm not saying Zay has lit it up in the preseason or anything, but it is somewhat disingenuous to say that Zay has done nothing except for dropping that TD (where he was about to be lit up by the way). He has had 5 receptions for 77 yards in the preseason. And 4 of those 5 receptions were for first downs. As comparison, John Brown has had 3 receptions for 45 yards, for instance. Should he be cut for doing nothing in the preseason? I still think Zay is on the team, but I'll admit that him playing that long last night did make me for the first time question his role if not his spot on the team.

 

I had always hoped that Duke would make this team, but was losing that hope earlier in camp. But that TD from Barkley showed why it might be nice to have a big guy on the team (besides our TEs).

 

Robert Foster is the biggest mystery of camp. Thought he was a lock from day one, but now I'm not so sure. What the heck is going on there? Maybe it was one of those 2nd year players who after a bit of success his rookie year, thought he had arrived and so didn't put enough work in in the offseason (kind of like Dawkins last year). We just don't have enough information at this point to know what the coaches are thinking of him.

 

Props to Isiah McKenzie. At the start of camp, I didn't think he'd have much of a chance (despite some nice play last year). But, other than his muff last night, he has played really well, when given the opportunity in the preseason games. 

 

RayRay apparently practiced well early on, but I don't think he's shown enough in the games. Maybe another year on the practice squad for McCloud.

 

 

So, I'm going with Brown, Beasley, Zay, Roberts, McKenzie, and Duke (at this point). With Foster being the wild card. If they keep 7 he's in. If it's a fight for the 6th slot and the coaches are planning to keep Foster, then maybe it is McKenzie who goes, since between Roberts, Beasley, and Brown, you already have most of what McKenzie would offer. He'd be nice to have in case of injury, but he's probably not getting many snaps if everyone is healthy. I guess the question is if Roberts gets hurt, do we have someone to return kicks without either Isiah or RayRay?

 

 

Brown has barely played, not a fair comparison.  And again the stat sheet is failing you.

 

With the ones, Zay has done very little.  Half that production came against scrubs last night playing in the 2nd half.  In the first half, he let Josh Allen down and didnt even look for the ball on what was a sure first down throw had he just turned around for the ball.  He dropped an Allen TD strike too last week.  QB and coaches need to trust the WR, what has Zay done to earn that this preseason?

 

We are talking about a guy whose supposed to be stepping up with the ones, and he has not done that.  Brown has played well when on the field, not even close of a comparison.

 

Watch games is all I can say...stop just looking at stat sheets and over looking the context.  I dont mean that as a jerk, mean that the stat sheet doesn't tell the whole story.  What matters is what Zay does against the competition he will be facing week 1, not against guys who won't be on rosters or will be backups at best.  And in those situations, he has done nothing memorable and made some key mistakes, the same mistakes that have plagued him for 2 seasons.

 

Question:  When do we stop making excuses for a 2nd round 3rd year WR and expect him to show on the field he is better than he has been?  I mean real question, as the excuse train is deep on Zay for someone who has yet to make his claim as a starting NFL WR.  

Edited August 24, 2019 by Alphadawg7

[BobbyC81]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Here's my take on the WR group.

 

You have three definite keepers: Brown, Beasley and Roberts as a return man and 4th/5th WR

 

Assuming like most teams they keep 6 WR you have 4 guys competing for three slots.  Reality too is on game day only 5 will be active unless one or two of their starters is somewhat nicked up, then may dress six.

 

So you have 4 guys each bringing a somewhat unique trait:

 

Foster, speed, Browns backup

Mckenzie ST play and gadget plays

Jones Incumbent starter and most game time experience

Williams Size

 

To me the one most expendable is Foster as he's basically a clone of Brown and doesn't bring anything different.  If you do keep him on the 53, unless Brown were to get hurt, he may not even dress for games as the other three each bring something unique to the table.  Foster is just an identical back up.

 

It also could be why you're not seeing much of Foster.  Last year he appeared to have some motivation issues, only after he was cut and returned did he work out.  So now the Bills sign Brown, basically taking his spot.  Maybe he's now back to the moping phase again while the others are out there making an impression?

 

Not saying they shouldn't keep Williams, but do need to be reminded for perspective, he has looked strong the past two games, but is doing it against guys both for and against that half won't even be on an NFL roster in a week.  However for that same reason I wouldn't cut Jones to keep Williams either as some are suggesting. 

 

You want Williams on the roster, cut one of the others instead and that leads me back to Foster.

 

Duke could come down with a back ailment (wink, wink), go on IR at roster cutdown and then be available to return to the active roster later depending on how things shake out.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

9 minutes ago, ColeB said:

 

Duke could come down with a back ailment (wink, wink), go on IR at roster cutdown and then be available to return to the active roster later depending on how things shake out.

 

Someone stated in another thread to be able to be designated to return, you have to first make the 53, then put on IR.  No idea on the truth of this, but it does make sense to prevent what you just described.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Duke is the real deal.  I believe they knew it because they signed him.  Now he's proved it.

[folz]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Brown has barely played, not a fair comparison.  And again the stat sheet is failing you.

 

With the ones, Zay has done very little.  Half that production came against scrubs last night playing in the 2nd half.  In the first half, he let Josh Allen down and didnt even look for the ball on what was a sure first down throw had he just turned around for the ball.  He dropped an Allen TD strike too.

 

We are talking about a guy whose supposed to be stepping up with the ones, and he has not done that.  Brown has played well when on the field, not even close of a comparison.

 

Watch games is all I can say...stop just looking at stat sheets and over looking the context.  I dont mean that as a jerk, mean that the stat sheet doesn't tell the whole story.  What matters is what Zay does against the competition he will be facing week 1, not against guys who won't be on rosters or will be backups at best.  And in those situations, he has done nothing memorable and made some key mistakes, the same mistakes that have plagued him for 2 seasons.

 

Question:  When do we stop making excuses for a 2nd round 3rd year WR and expect him to show on the field he is better than he has been?  I mean real question, as the excuse train is deep on Zay for someone who has yet to make his claim as a starting NFL WR.  

 

I have watched all three preseason games (not just looked at the stat sheet). I even watched the second preseason game a second time (in condensed format). I'm not saying Zay is a great receiver and doesn't need to get better, but a couple of things. 1. Outside of Beasley, what other wide receiver has lit it up with the 1s? No one, not even John Brown. So, all of the other guys that we give props to (Duke, McKenzie, etc.) got their catches against 2s and 3s also. Why do those count but Zay's don't? 2. Again, I'm not saying Zay is great, but right now, after Brown and Beasley, who is better on the team? You can't say Foster is with the preseason he's had. RayRay? No. Duke? Getting better, but don't think you trust him as your third WR yet. McKenzie? Over his career, he's had a lot of drops and way more fumbles than Zay (but no one seems to hold that against him). And if Beasley is on the field, you're not putting McKenzie on the outside as your #2 consistently. Maybe Roberts, but he hasn't done much in the preseason games and they aren't going to want to expose him too much if he's doing both kickoff and punt return duties. Like it or not, Zay is currently the safest number 3 receiver to go with.

 

And just as you think some of us make excuses for Zay, I think some of the anti-Zay people only point out his mistakes and never give him props when he does make a play. At one point last year, I reviewed all of Zay's "drops" from his rookie year. I'm telling you, if you go back and look at it, yes he had a good number of drops, but it actually wasn't as bad as some make it out to be because Tyrod threw so many bad passes. Balls over his head, just out of bounds, at his feet, etc. Honestly. And last year, a lot of the drops were early in the season. Well we had bad QB play and then a rookie QB who hadn't learned not to throw every ball 100 mph yet. By the end of the year, Josh and Zay had a pretty good connection going. He had 7 TDs and almost 700 yards. That's not bad...but for a number 2 (which he should be---not comparing it to number 1 WR stats)

 

Let's face it, Zay should have never been thrust into a number one WR role, which he was his first two years. Even at his best, because of his tools, he's probably a number 2 WR. Yet he always had to face the best corners of the opponent with no pressure on the opposite side of the field, with spotty QB play (for a season and a half), and no run game (last year), etc. It's tough for a young player to thrive like that. Think about Ju-Ju going to Pittsburgh. He had a HOF QB throwing to him and an All-Pro WR opposite him drawing double teams, and a solid run game keeping the defense honest. I'm not comparing Zay and Ju-JU, just the situations they each came into and how that can effect a young player and their confidence. And what about coaching. Two years, two position coaches, both fired. Sounds like last year's WR room was not good and Zay's rookie year he had his college coach, so how much was he learning new or NFL level. Anyhow, those may sound like excuses to you, but I see it as giving context to Zay's situation and why he may still improve rather than being a definite bust.

 

There is no question that this is a make or break year for Zay, if he doesn't take a big step forward, he won't be around next year. But for this year, I think the team is better off with him and I want to see if he can take that next step forward/gain his confidence back now that he'll have a viable offense around him, and where he's not having to be the number one WR on an overall bad offense. Maybe he will or maybe he won't, I just think that is a decision for later this season (as things shake out) or next offseason, not right now.

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

 

Snap count in game 3 is the most easily twisted to fit a narrative stat I can imagine 

 

lots of snaps cause hes the leader 

 

lots of snaps cause you are showcasing a trade

 

lots of snaps to see if he can dig out of a hole

 

no snaps cause you are about to trade him

 

no snaps cause he’s already on the inside

 

no snaps cause he’s a bum 

 

I agree with.  I don't think the snap counts can be read to mean anything.  I mean, there is a reason why each guy got the snaps he did, but we can't tell the reason by looking at the counts.  

 

Having said that, I think it's meaningful that Duke was getting first team snaps and Zay got a lot of second team.  Someone suggested that they knew they would run more than pass with the 1's and they wanted to see Duke block.  But even that's just a guess.  

 

I've said for a couple of months that Zay may be in trouble because he is good at everything but really good at nothing.  Not great speed, not great hands, not great route runner, not great blocker.  Just good at all of it.  

 

Personally, I want a guy on the field who catches everything that comes close to him.  That's Duke.  

[MJS]

If Duke makes this team I'll eat my crow. Didn't think he had a chance, but he's had a few flashes. If he can be a force in the run game and make some contested catches, he's worth being the 6th receiver.

[Chandler#81]

1 hour ago, ColeB said:

 

Duke could come down with a back ailment (wink, wink), go on IR at roster cutdown and then be available to return to the active roster later depending on how things shake out.

Or McKittrick. This would certainly be a way through this dilemma. 

While we don’t have any A-list guys, the WR -& RB groups for that matter, are much better than last season and make for great discussion on what’s the best group to keep. I seriously doubt whoever we cut from these positions will be unemployed long and won’t be available for PS consideration.

[DCbillsfan]

Kroft's health may play a role in who they keep.  If he's not ready for week 1, which I doubt, I see Kroft put on PUP or IR.  The Bills go with 3 TE (Smith, Sweeney, and Knox) and 7 WR.  Revisit everything when he comes back.

 

So 7 WR, 3TE, 2 QB, 9 OL, and 4 RB is my guess for offense.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Bolden and Easley should work on the wave.

[Troll Toll]

I’ll be pissed if we wind up watching Foster light it up on another team while our offense sputters.

[Royale with Cheese]

Sal Capaccio said he believes only 3 WR are safe.  Beasley, Brown and Roberts.  If he had to due a projection right now, he thinks Duke Williams makes it....
He thinks Zay makes it but said he wouldn't be shocked if he doesn't.

@Alphadawg7

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

5 more days!!!  (at most) 

 

snap count .... its preseason and this one is not like the others because of the new cut down date allowing all 90 to remain until 1 week before Kickoff

Edited August 26, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan