(Good Read) Which Positions Are the Safest, Riskiest at the Top of the NFL Draft?

[Boca BIlls]

Success is all about who you pick... Not the position.

[Bill from NYC]

This is a good link but it omits something of great importance imo.

 

Tre White is a very good player. I personally think that he is already better than Gilmore. He is anything but a bust. Donte Whitner somehow made the pro bowl. A case could be made (I don't buy it) that he was "good." 

 

Now, were they good draft picks? Of course not!!! These  picks were horrid and self defeating.....based on who they passed on. The Bills walked right by 2 young, promising quarterbacks for White. One had won a national title by carrying his team, the other might now be the best player in football.

In Whitner's case, they passed on Ngata, a wonderful player who had a high ceiling.

 

What I am saying is that there is more to an NFL draft than players being "good" or even busting out. I think that when looking back upon a draft, a critical rating factor should be the list of great players, some at critically important positions, that a team passes on. 

 

These pros are paid well to identify talent, no to take a seemingly safe road and "play not to lose" ala Jauron.

 

jmo.

Edited April 16, 2019 by Bill from NYC

[Nanker]

The game changes over time. The League reacts to that just like traders do to market swings. 

 

Those saying 9 is too high to take a TE will be surprised if Denver takes Hock at the 10 spot. He’s going to be a difference maker wherever he lands. I doubt he makes it past the Broncos if The Bills trade down. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, Nanker said:

The game changes over time. The League reacts to that just like traders do to market swings. 

 

Those saying 9 is too high to take a TE will be surprised if Denver takes Hock at the 10 spot. He’s going to be a difference maker wherever he lands. I doubt he makes it past the Broncos if The Bills trade down. 

 

Yeah I tend to agree - if you end up looking at the top 3:  Kelce, Ertz, Kittle - Those are legit top 15 guys in catches and yards, and are big red zone targets.  All of them are capable blockers too. 

 

If Hock's a great blocker and athletic enough to get to that level - it makes him a top 10 in the draft player.  His combine numbers don't show some of his elite abilities in getting open and blocking either.

[hondo in seattle]

6 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

Success is all about who you pick... Not the position.

 

This is both true and Beane's probable opinion.

 

But I think it would be hubris to ignore the statistical data.  It ought to factor in the decision making process somewhere.  

[Inigo Montoya]

9 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

This is a good link but it omits something of great importance imo.

 

Tre White is a very good player. I personally think that he is already better than Gilmore. He is anything but a bust. Donte Whitner somehow made the pro bowl. A case could be made (I don't but it) that he was "good." 

 

Now, were they good draft picks? Of course not!!! These  picks were horrid and self defeating.....based on who they passed on. The Bills walked right by 2 young, promising quarterbacks for White. One had won a national title by carrying his team, the other might now be the best player in football.

In Whitner's case, they passed on Ngata, a wonderful player who had a high ceiling.

 

What I am saying is that there is more to an NFL draft than players being "good" or even busting out. I think that when looking back upon a draft, a critical rating factor should be the list of great players, some at critically important positions, that a team passes on. 

 

These pros are paid well to identify talent, no to take a seemingly safe road and "play not to lose" ala Jauron.

 

jmo.

 

Hey Bill, I'd respectfully disagree with one of your points.

 

You use the example of the Bills passing on Ngata and selecting Whitner instead.   I would contend that Ngata might not have had the career he had if he started in Buffalo.  And this is not just about Ngata specifically, but about any football player's success or failure in the league. There are so many variables that go into having a great career in this league,  you just can't make a statement that Ngata would have been the same player in Buffalo.  There is a lot of luck involved and a million variables that determine who has a Hall of Fame career and who doesn't.

 

Who is on the roster at your position ahead of you?

What scheme does the offense / defense run? Does it play to your strengths?

Is your position coach fantastic or a dufus?

Does the position coach like you?

Is the team horrid with no supporting talent and you get double teamed and dominated every snap?

Does a new coaching regime come in your second year and purge the roster of all the previous regimes's players?

Do you get injured in training camp?

Does your team draft another player at your position who outplays you or bring in a free agent?

Do you get caught up in locker room politics or feel you're being treated unfairly by the coaches and become disillusioned and lose your desire to play?

Etc, etc, etc...

 

It's the same flawed thinking that leads people to say if we hadn't missed that field goal on the opening drive, we wouldn't have lost the game 21-20, as if the entire game wouldn't have been different from that point on after that successful field goal kick.

 

There are way too many variables to make a simple apples to apples comparison about player's careers.  It's more like an apples to toaster oven comparison.  No one knows what would have happened if Ngata, just as an example, would have come to the Bills instead of the Ravens.  To state that he would have had the same career is simply not supportable.  

 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

On 4/14/2019 at 2:05 PM, Chandler#81 said:

Interesting study. LB & OG are safest, QB, WR & RB most dangerous. DL better than average.

 

I don’t expect a game changing LB at 9, so OT it is -by this measure.

 

...so with all of the OL activity in FA, would this steer you away from Edge/DL in the 1st, either staying at #9 or trading down for an extra 2nd?............

[Bill from NYC]

2 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

Hey Bill, I'd respectfully disagree with one of your points.

 

You use the example of the Bills passing on Ngata and selecting Whitner instead.   I would contend that Ngata might not have had the career he had if he started in Buffalo.  And this is not just about Ngata specifically, but about any football player's success or failure in the league. There are so many variables that go into having a great career in this league,  you just can't make a statement that Ngata would have been the same player in Buffalo.  There is a lot of luck involved and a million variables that determine who has a Hall of Fame career and who doesn't.

 

Who is on the roster at your position ahead of you?

What scheme does the offense / defense run? Does it play to your strengths?

Is your position coach fantastic or a dufus?

Does the position coach like you?

Is the team horrid with no supporting talent and you get double teamed and dominated every snap?

Does a new coaching regime come in your second year and purge the roster of all the previous regimes's players?

Do you get injured in training camp?

Does your team draft another player at your position who outplays you or bring in a free agent?

Do you get caught up in locker room politics or feel you're being treated unfairly by the coaches and become disillusioned and lose your desire to play?

Etc, etc, etc...

 

It's the same flawed thinking that leads people to say if we hadn't missed that field goal on the opening drive, we wouldn't have lost the game 21-20, as if the entire game wouldn't have been different from that point on after that successful field goal kick.

 

There are way too many variables to make a simple apples to apples comparison about player's careers.  It's more like an apples to toaster oven comparison.  No one knows what would have happened if Ngata, just as an example, would have come to the Bills instead of the Ravens.  To state that he would have had the same career is simply not supportable.  

 

I see and understand your point. The fact however is that the Bills passed up on superior players to draft Whitner. Not only that, I heard Levy say on an interview on Sirius that he turned down numerous trade offers for that #8 pick. He even said that some offers involved more than a trade down in round 1 and an additional 2nd round pick.

The day that pick was made, I predicted that it would set the Bills back 5 years. Was I wrong? Whitner collect approx. 36 million CAP dollars. There was no rookie cap in those days.

You are correct in that anything can happen. Maybe Ngata would have got hurt, I don't know. What I do know is that he was a far superior player to Whitner, and that the Bills needed Ngata more than they did an undersized safety.

Edited April 15, 2019 by Bill from NYC

[LSHMEAB]

2 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

 

There are way too many variables to make a simple apples to apples comparison about player's careers.  It's more like an apples to toaster oven comparison.  No one knows what would have happened if Ngata, just as an example, would have come to the Bills instead of the Ravens.  To state that he would have had the same career is simply not supportable.  

 

Ngata is a great player. Great players tend to..play great. 

 

Not following the logic. What would have derailed a defensive lineman's career in Buffalo?

[Inigo Montoya]

1 minute ago, Bill from NYC said:

I see and understand your point. The fact however is that the Bills passed up on superior players to draft Whitner. Not only that, I heard Levy say on an interview on Sirius that he turned down numerous trade offers for that #8 pick. He even said that some offers involved more than a trade down in round 1 and an additional 2nd round pick.

The day that pick was made, I predicted that it would set the Bills back 5 years. Was I wrong? Whitner collect approx. 36 million CAP dollars. There was no rookie cap in those days.

You are correct in that anything can happen. Maybe Ngata would have got hurt, I don't know. What I do know is that he was a far superior player to Whitner, and that the Bills needed Ngata more than they did an undersized safety.

 

Agree with that 100%.  I would have much rather had Ngata than Whitner.  No argument from me on that.  Our franchise's draft history has been more miss than hit for a long time.  That's not a recipe for a successful team.

[Inigo Montoya]

19 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Ngata is a great player. Great players tend to..play great. 

 

Not following the logic. What would have derailed a defensive lineman's career in Buffalo?

 

Just look at the Rams the last three years. 

 

Look at Gurley and Goff under Jeff Fisher.  

 

Now look at them under Sean McVay.

 

Circumstances matter. 

 

A lot.

[ctk232]

On 4/14/2019 at 12:11 PM, Doc Brown said:

Wish they would've separated DE and DT.

Actually though - they did it for OL why just blanket DL and dismissively address it throughout? Granted, the fact this article came out in 2015 means it wouldn't have exactly addressed DL in the context of this year's class, being that it has unprecedented talent depth at those positions. But an armchair analysis and eye test would have me believe that the greater risk is with the DT position specifically, as opposed to the pass rusher/DE profile players - particularly as of recent years. 

 

Outside of coaching, scheme disparities and transition to the NFL are substantial variables for determining this, but I would almost feel that DE/pass rushers are safer bets in the first round than interior DL. I'm curious what that breakdown would look like here, but also not sure this study could really tell us that either - it still manages to interpret data applications that are otherwise statistically flawed, and doesn't consider other variable factors in terms of scheme evolution and position importance over the course of those year ranges. 

Edited April 17, 2019 by ctk232

[Alphadawg7]

On 4/14/2019 at 11:05 AM, Chandler#81 said:

Interesting study. LB & OG are safest, QB, WR & RB most dangerous. DL better than average.

 

I don’t expect a game changing LB at 9, so OT it is -by this measure.

 

Well one interesting correlation is that the "most dangerous" are also the most dependent on the cast around them to succeed.  For example, a QB's success is greatly impacted by the staffs ability to develop a QB, the protection from the OL, the weapons around him.  Rare QB's can ascend in even bad situations, but most cant.  Even Steve Young looked terrible in TB on one of the worst rosters in history (if not the worst) and then became HOF and a top 5 QB all time in SF with a real franchise.  WR is pretty dependent on having a QB and offense that can get them the ball.  RB's once they get to the NFL are very vulnerable to success or failure based on the ability to open up run lanes.  

 

Where as an interior lineman and LB can still do their job if the surrounding cast isn't as good.  They obviously will do better with more talent around them like any position, but their success isnt as tied to another position like those 3 offensive skill positions are.  

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

On ‎4‎/‎15‎/‎2019 at 5:06 PM, LSHMEAB said:

Ngata is a great player. Great players tend to..play great. 

 

Not following the logic. What would have derailed a defensive lineman's career in Buffalo?

A move to cornerback

[ctk232]

On 4/15/2019 at 5:06 PM, LSHMEAB said:

Ngata is a great player. Great players tend to..play great. 

 

Not following the logic. What would have derailed a defensive lineman's career in Buffalo?

Different schemes, different coaches, different players around him on the line, different division, different field/arena environment - regardless, it's a logical fallacy to say that had Ngata been drafted by the Bills (or any other team) that his career would have taken the same trajectory and seen the same success. It's just simply something that cannot be proven, just speculated on. 

 

Many things can derail a player's development regardless of their inherent talent, including injuries. Now he could have very well performed comparably or even equally had he been drafted by the Bills, but to use that as an absolute or in an argument to prove something would just be false.

 

To round it out, there are many players who perform at a top level on one team and leave for another and don't perform for x/y/z reason. Along those lines, I've always wondered what kind of QB Brady would've been had he played for any other coach.

[Chandler#81]

26 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well one interesting correlation is that the "most dangerous" are also the most dependent on the cast around them to succeed.  For example, a QB's success is greatly impacted by the staffs ability to develop a QB, the protection from the OL, the weapons around him.  Rare QB's can ascend in even bad situations, but most cant.  Even Steve Young looked terrible in TB on one of the worst rosters in history (if not the worst) and then became HOF and a top 5 QB all time in SF with a real franchise.  WR is pretty dependent on having a QB and offense that can get them the ball.  RB's once they get to the NFL are very vulnerable to success or failure based on the ability to open up run lanes.  

 

Where as an interior lineman and LB can still do their job if the surrounding cast isn't as good.  They obviously will do better with more talent around them like any position, but their success isnt as tied to another position like those 3 offensive skill positions are.  

Agreed. Young is the QB I most compare with Josh. Sure, Southpaw, but definitely always looking to go big on a play and was crazy good running the ball throughout his career -USFL through the end. He also had a couple good weapons..

[H2o]

On 4/14/2019 at 2:23 PM, Johnny Hammersticks said:

 

I think there is a chance Devin White falls to 9.  

That would be outstanding 

[LSHMEAB]

3 hours ago, ctk232 said:

Different schemes, different coaches, different players around him on the line, different division, different field/arena environment - regardless, it's a logical fallacy to say that had Ngata been drafted by the Bills (or any other team) that his career would have taken the same trajectory and seen the same success. It's just simply something that cannot be proven, just speculated on. 

 

Many things can derail a player's development regardless of their inherent talent, including injuries. Now he could have very well performed comparably or even equally had he been drafted by the Bills, but to use that as an absolute or in an argument to prove something would just be false.

 

To round it out, there are many players who perform at a top level on one team and leave for another and don't perform for x/y/z reason. Along those lines, I've always wondered what kind of QB Brady would've been had he played for any other coach.

I will agree to disagree on Ngata. He's a defensive lineman. Maybe he wouldn't have been AS good, but while it can't be PROVEN, there is no reason to believe he wouldn't have had a stellar career regardless of draft team.

 

The question is much more interesting when you add QB to the equation. I personally think Jared Goff is a below average QB who would play below average if not for McVay. Tom Brady? Who in the world knows? You could definitely play that game forever when it comes to QB's.

4 hours ago, MOVALLEYRANDY said:

A move to cornerback

WRONG. He was built to play corner. Hear me out here.......

[ctk232]

58 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

I will agree to disagree on Ngata. He's a defensive lineman. Maybe he wouldn't have been AS good, but while it can't be PROVEN, there is no reason to believe he wouldn't have had a stellar career regardless of draft team.

 

The question is much more interesting when you add QB to the equation. I personally think Jared Goff is a below average QB who would play below average if not for McVay. Tom Brady? Who in the world knows? You could definitely play that game forever when it comes to QB's.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying he definitely wouldn't have been great, just that we can't ever know for certain and to say so isn't entirely accurate as any one of those things could have impeded him in that trajectory - hell, he could've been injured and ended his career. Just noting the reasons why we can't say so.

 

While you definitely can play that game more so with QBs - I don't think DL/DT is exempt from the same considerations. So much of their success is dependent upon their role in the system and the guys next to them being able to execute their roles as well. Talent can combat this to varying degrees but it's often not enough if the rest of the picture isn't there, too. I won't ever argue Ngata wasn't a stud, five time pro-bowler speaks to itself; however, he was a part of a Ravens defense that is arguably among the best of all time - easy for talent to shine there and continue to do so when the opposition has to consider the likes of the other guys they had at every level of the defense for several consecutive years.

Edited April 17, 2019 by ctk232