How Much Did The Bills Actually Improve the OL? PFF Rankings 2018 vs. 2019 Comparison

[Doc]

30 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

FWIW, the entire free agency except for Morse has been like that. 

 

I mean seriously, reading here about how now we have a #1 WR because we signed Brown?  Seriously?  

 

If anyone had suggested that Brown was our answer to our WR sitution before free agency had begun they'd have been laughed at.  Beasley too.  

 

Brown's catch% is right down there in the bottom-dwelling pits like Jones' is. Think about it, if someone had said prior to FAcy, BEFORE we signed him, that Brown was going to be our "star WR," who would've been excited? I would have laughed. Not sure why I should be excited now just because it's happened. 

The only FA signing that to me is not simply depth-caliber talent is Morse, but before I get too exicted about him he'll have to play in more than the 18 of 32 games he played in over the past two seasons. 

This team is a roster full of depth players on offense, we need above-average impact players. IMO they haven't signed one yet with the sole exception of Morse.  

Beasley's much better than Jones but Allen left so many yards on the table last season looking for players deeper as opposed to where Beasley will typically be on a route, so first Allen has to improve, by leaps and bounds, his short-medium game if this is going to work.

Brown has averaged 645 yards and 4.5 TDs/season. Hardly anything that excites me as our top WR. Only 3 of his 22 TDs have been longer than 33 yards, two in 2014 with Palmer and the other in 2015, none in the past three seasons. Once again, to deemphasize the impact of the deep-game and place the appropriate emphasis on the short-medium game where ALL franchise QBs butter their bread. He barely cracked 1,000 once and has never come close otherwise. 

Beasley has a very good catch%, but he’s averaged less than 500 yards and barely over 3 TDs/season in only 22 starts during a 7-season career. Only 2 of Beasley’s 23 TDs were greater than 24 yards. Also, he’s 30 this season, hardly a spring-chicken and entering his back-9. 

In short, the narrative doesn’t match with reality in terms of the “deep-game.” 

Also, here’s the thing, when you have to expect that players brought on produce to their best seasons ever or better, I’m not sure that’s a well-placed hope, particularly on a team with a QB that was bottom-dwelling in the passing department and one with only depth-caliber offensive talent otherwise and with the QB pending. Are we expecting both of them to post then again 50% of their average production now? If so I'd strongly suggest that that's an unreasonable expectation.  If we get their averages from them they're hardly any "solution" to the passing game.  

I’m not sure whether most people understand what a poor passer Allen is and how much work he needs to do in order to merely become an average PASSER much less a franchise QB caliber passer. The thing is that he’s never performed like that in the passing department, ever, so it’s a tall order. Sure, he’s exciting, can run and hurdle defenders, but that’s not what makes a franchise QB. It's also what's going to get him killed and significantly curtail his career. Let's keep in mind too that teams now have a season of film on him too, no surprise this season. He thrived on surprising opponents last season, this season that advantage is gone.

 

It's your opinion that Morse is the only OL addition that isn't backup quality.  To me they have 4/5 of the OL upgraded with just 1 OG spot in question, but with potential candidates.  And the draft and 3rd wave of FA (post-draft) hasn't happened yet.

 

As for WR's, I liked the addition of Brown because with his and Foster's speed, CB's and S's won't be able to crowd the LOS, which will open up the running game and the underneath for Beasley.  As for Beasley, true Josh eschewed throwing short last season but I'm not sure if that was on him or he was told to look downfield, but with a high-profile addition like Beasley, he probably will throw short more often.

 

And as for Josh, he's not a poor passer.  But we'll see.  He's been given the tools so that he's really got no more excuses. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

I still think we draft some.

 

 

[Doc]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

I still think we draft some.

 

If they're not satisfied with this current group, they just may.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

4 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

If they're not satisfied with this current group, they just may.

 

They seem like mostly depth players except for Morse

 

 

[Dopey]

On 3/17/2019 at 8:38 AM, BobChalmers said:

In other Bills OL news - all NFL OL look like hot garbage playing for Juan Castillo.

 

As mentioned earlier - Long was in the 70's when he played for Bobby Johnson.  Waddle played well for him too?

 

COACHING MATTERS A LOT for NFL OL.

 

...so much so, in fact, that I question giving up on Groy and Miller who both looked like studs (along with most of the line) when coached by Aaron Kromer.

I would have liked to see Miller duke it out for a spot under our new line coach.

Edited March 19, 2019 by Dopey

[Doc]

35 minutes ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

They seem like mostly depth players except for Morse

 

Nsekhe and Long will start. 

[Ronin]

4 hours ago, Doc said:

And as for Josh, he's not a poor passer.  But we'll see.  He's been given the tools so that he's really got no more excuses. 

 

Purely from a passing perspective, Manuel had a better rookie season than Allen did.

 

That's a fact.

 

Also, Allen has largely only played well as a passing QB against the Fins.

 

Those aren't good indicators.

[Kelly the Dog]

9 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Purely from a passing perspective, Manuel had a better rookie season than Allen did.

 

That's a fact.

 

Also, Allen has largely only played well as a passing QB against the Fins.

 

Those aren't good indicators.

That’s not a fact, that’s a crock. 

[Buffalo Barbarian]

4 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Nsekhe and Long will start. 

 

maybe at first, but i can see a situation where rookies take over like Teller did.

 

 

[hurfldurf]

I won't speak to the quality of PFF's grading or service, but I do know that every single NFL team subscribes to them and most work directly with PFF to import PFF grades and data directly to the team's internal video/database/reporting software. 

 

Their service is valued because teams simply don't have the will or manpower to grade every single player in the league on every single play. 

 

That said, there are a LOT of coaches and FO people at every level who more rely on familiarity with schemes, past coaching connections, or physical potential than grades and analytics. Not sure where McBeane falls on that scale.

[Doc]

7 hours ago, Buffalo Barbarian said:

maybe at first, but i can see a situation where rookies take over like Teller did.

 

If so, great. It means they hit on him/them (assuming they draft one or more). 

[mjt328]

On 3/16/2019 at 10:48 PM, BillyWhiteShows said:

I'm not really too familiar with some of the new lineman that the Bills signed this past week, so I looked up their rankings in PFF.  Here's how the 2018 group compares to the current linemen for 2019.  If the PFF rankings mean anything to you - it appears that the Bills shuffled around the chairs on the deck of the Titanic.  Based on the numbers here, there's a marginal improvement at Right Tackle and Center.  Everyone else appear to be a substitution of average to below average depth players....

 

New signees like Waddle, Felciano, and Spencer long are ranked just as low 2018 underperforming class of Vlad and Ryan Groy.  Spencer Long was actually worse than Ryan Groy!!!

 

Many say that these PFF rankings are pure BS...let's hope they are right.

 

2018 Bills Offensive LIne

 

2019 Bills Offensive Line

 

 

 

I enjoy reading Pro Football Focus.  But their grades are just like any other statistic, and should not be taken as gospel.

For instance, Tre'Davious White was the 88th ranked cornerback in the NFL last year.  Most of the Bills fans who watch him every week think White should have been in the Pro Bowl.  Yet his PFF score was lower than almost every CB on our roster, including Phillip Gaines (who we cut mid-season).

 

In terms of upgrading the O-Line, there weren't too many options on the market who blew away PFF's grading system.

Trent Brown, Matt Paradis, Roger Saffold and Ju'Wuan James were also "above average" in 2018, according to the PFF scoring system.  Daryl Williams was average.  Along with Morse, those guys were the premier free agent options according to virtually everyone who covers the NFL.  If you are basing everything off PFF grades alone, there is nothing Beane could have done to earn your approval.

 

At the end of the day, every free agent is someone who was considered expendable by their previous team.  For whatever reason.  Unless it's purely a money/salary cap issue, you will almost never see premium, All-Pro, Top 5 players on the market.  Many are coming off injuries (Morse) or declining because of age.  Some were improperly used and coming off poor seasons (Spencer Long).  Very often, the ones who get the biggest contracts are inconsistent and overrated - and the only ones who know it are the teams letting them walk.  That doesn't mean free agents aren't valuable and can't make an impact.  It's just more proof that the Draft is where a front office needs to focus on truly upgrading the roster.  Free agency is about filling holes with solid veteran depth.

 

In my opinion, Beane is playing the free agency game correctly.  He's filling holes across the roster with solid players.  But he's also got his eyes on the future, knowing our long-term success depends on drafting well and then having the cap room to re-sign our own guys (like White, Milano) when they come up in a few years.  Teams like the Jets are blowing all of their cap space on a few players, and will not be able to keep the bulk of this roster intact for longer than 1-2 years.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

23 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

He was already signed. They just decided to give him a raise when they didn’t need to. He wasn’t going anywhere and still would have led. That’s what the bad man said. 

 

 

 

Yup.

 

Would've been an excellent move if Wood hadn't had tremendously horrible luck with that neck injury.

 

Any long contract could be made to look bad by a career-ending injury. Pure bad luck.

Edited March 20, 2019 by Thurman#1

[blacklabel]

On 3/17/2019 at 3:44 AM, vincec said:

These rankings are strange to me. For example, Connor McDermott 63 and Jordan Mills 56. If McDermott was better than Mills then he would have been starting in his place.

 

McDermott also played a total of like 30 snaps last year, small sample size to grade on.

[Kelly the Dog]

On 3/17/2019 at 12:44 AM, vincec said:

These rankings are strange to me. For example, Connor McDermott 63 and Jordan Mills 56. If McDermott was better than Mills then he would have been starting in his place.

If any player didn't finish higher rated than Jordan Mills, one would have to reconsider the website's entire reason for existence.

[PrimeTime101]

So if we move Dawkins to LG … you know.. the position we originally drafted him from? and went LT in round one and shifted teller to RG.. how would it look? and even if we go into next season with that line up "witch it doubt" you have to assume 3 things.. LT Dawkins gets better. Tellers upside he gets better and Long goes back to his RG PFF performance.

 

PFF is a guide to where people are at and it does a great job at that.. but it does not tell the whole story. No one is going to sit here and tell me the difference between what Morse does and what Bodine did is only separated by 6.9 pff.. Morse's ability to read defenses is already 100 times better then Bodine. Bodine is why we saw (many times) have the RG help pinch on a DT for NO REASON while an OLB or ILB runs a delay between RG and RT. PFF does not explain these things.

 

The Bills can do one of 3 things to improve there line in the draft.

 

1. They can Draft Best Center in round 2. and play him at Guard till Morse is gone.

2. They can draft a LG in round 2 and move Teller to the right side.

3. They can Draft a LT early round 1, Move Dawkins to LG (the position we drafted him for) and have

LT Rookie round 1,  LG Dawkins, Center Morse, RG Teller, RT Nsekhe.

 

One last note. Long's PFF at RG was way way higher at Guard then at Center.  Moving Long to Center was just as big of a mistake as moving Groy to Center. At RG I would put Long at around 61. PFF where he was at in 2017.

 

So go ahead and fixate on the PFF between the 2 years and say "oh no that's why I didn't like this pick or decision" Because by the time the draft is over and Day 1 season opener starts, we will come out smelling like roses.

Edited March 20, 2019 by PrimeTime101

[Ronin]

13 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

That’s not a fact, that’s a crock. 

You sure about that?  

 

Did you actually look at the FACTS & DATA?  Or are you simply spouting off?  

 

 

You can break it down by game log too, it's no better.  

 

In fact, Allen only played well against the Fins. 

 

5 TDs, 3 INTs for 455 Yards (228 avg.)  

 

In the other 10 games he had 5 TDs, 9 INTs for 1,619 Yards (162 avg.)   He played OK passing vs. the Vikes but not superlatively.  

 

You can see the differences for yourself.  

 

Manuel's Red Zone numbers were much better too.  

 

Allen:  12 of 26 (42%, bottom-dwelling low BTW), 79 Yards, 4 TDs (2 of which were in that last Miami game), 5 1st Downs, 3.0 YPA, 6.1 Adj. YPA

Manuel:  10 of 21 (47.6%), 71 Yards, 6 TDs, 10 1st-Downs, 3.4 YPA, 9.1 Adj. YPA  

 

That last Miami game literally doubled Allen's Red Zone numbers.  He had a mere 2 Red Zone TDs in 11 games prior, worst by a country mile of any starting QB in the league.  

 

Here's a little help for you.  

 

In the Red Zone ...

 

Allen was 5.6% worse in Compl. %

Allen was nearly half-a-yard worse in YPA and 3.0 worse in Adj. YPA. 

Allen's TD% rate was 15.4% which was nearly half of Manuel's 28.6%.  And 15.4% sucks anyway, it's bottom-dwelling.  

 

Frankly, if we want to be frank, Allen's passing in general and Red Zone games were horrific and worse than ANY other starter the league prior to that week 17 emotionally charged Miami game.  

 

As I've said, if he plays like he has vs. Miami next season we can expect to see 40 TDs & 24 INTs.  

 

If he plays like he did in the other 10 games we can expect to see 8 TDs & 15 INTs.  

 

Unfortunately we're not going to have that emotionally charged element present in any of those games this season.  Again, being frank, in the other 11 games of his he was horrific as a passer, statistically/metrically speaking.  

 

He was 152 for 294 (51.7%), for 1,850 Yards, 7 TDs, 11 INTs, with a sack-rate of 8.4, same as Manuel, which is high, particularly or a mobile QB.  

 

I'm quite sorry that you thiink that those numbers are better than Manuel's rookie numbers.  If you don't think that needs massive improvement tho I'm really  not sure what to tell you.  It's far from even average though much less Franchise Caliber.  

 

But those are the FACTS.  

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, TaskersGhost said:

You sure about that?  

 

Did you actually look at the FACTS & DATA?  Or are you simply spouting off?  

 

 

You can break it down by game log too, it's no better.  

 

In fact, Allen only played well against the Fins. 

 

5 TDs, 3 INTs for 455 Yards (228 avg.)  

 

In the other 10 games he had 5 TDs, 9 INTs for 1,619 Yards (162 avg.)   He played OK passing vs. the Vikes but not superlatively.  

 

You can see the differences for yourself.  

 

Manuel's Red Zone numbers were much better too.  

 

Allen:  12 of 26 (42%, bottom-dwelling low BTW), 79 Yards, 4 TDs (2 of which were in that last Miami game), 5 1st Downs, 3.0 YPA, 6.1 Adj. YPA

Manuel:  10 of 21 (47.6%), 71 Yards, 6 TDs, 10 1st-Downs, 3.4 YPA, 9.1 Adj. YPA  

 

That last Miami game literally doubled Allen's Red Zone numbers.  He had a mere 2 Red Zone TDs in 11 games prior, worst by a country mile of any starting QB in the league.  

 

Here's a little help for you.  

 

In the Red Zone ...

 

Allen was 5.6% worse in Compl. %

Allen was nearly half-a-yard worse in YPA and 3.0 worse in Adj. YPA. 

Allen's TD% rate was 15.4% which was nearly half of Manuel's 28.6%.  And 15.4% sucks anyway, it's bottom-dwelling.  

 

Frankly, if we want to be frank, Allen's passing in general and Red Zone games were horrific and worse than ANY other starter the league prior to that week 17 emotionally charged Miami game.  

 

As I've said, if he plays like he has vs. Miami next season we can expect to see 40 TDs & 24 INTs.  

 

If he plays like he did in the other 10 games we can expect to see 8 TDs & 15 INTs.  

 

Unfortunately we're not going to have that emotionally charged element present in any of those games this season.  Again, being frank, in the other 11 games of his he was horrific as a passer, statistically/metrically speaking.  

 

He was 152 for 294 (51.7%), for 1,850 Yards, 7 TDs, 11 INTs, with a sack-rate of 8.4, same as Manuel, which is high, particularly or a mobile QB.  

 

I'm quite sorry that you thiink that those numbers are better than Manuel's rookie numbers.  If you don't think that needs massive improvement tho I'm really  not sure what to tell you.  It's far from even average though much less Franchise Caliber.  

 

But those are the FACTS.  

Raw numbers like that, without context, are worthless. Actually watching the games, considering the situations, players, plays, play calls, improvement, throws, drops, ability, type of passes, length of passes, accuracy, down and distance, field position, and a dozen other factors will show you that Josh Allen's pure passing as a rookie far outweighed EJ's, and I was one of EJ's biggest boosters/apologists.

[Nextmanup]

On 3/17/2019 at 12:05 AM, Misterbluesky said:

We should be able to outscore any team in the league now.

And if we don't, we will still always know we won the 2019 off-season.

 

No one can take that away! 

 

 

[Ronin]

5 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Raw numbers like that, without context, are worthless. Actually watching the games, considering the situations, players, plays, play calls, improvement, throws, drops, ability, type of passes, length of passes, accuracy, down and distance, field position, and a dozen other factors will show you that Josh Allen's pure passing as a rookie far outweighed EJ's, and I was one of EJ's biggest boosters/apologists.

 

LMAO 

 

I fully understand.  But opinions like yours are so much more valuable apart from any real data, metrics, or objective analysis.  

 

Yeah yeah.  

 

LOL  

 

Face it, you didn't do any homework prior to making any statements.  Meanwhile, I'll pencil you in for insisting that throwing half as many TDs as INTs is something other than concerning.