Startling Star statistic

[Hapless Bills Fan]

22 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

2) To that point......Kyle was the same guy or better than he had been in 2017..........no drop-off.........he just played about 3%-4% fewer snaps because of better depth at 3T.

 

That may be, but the KW I remember ran in 2013-2015 - and the last few years have seen him drop off markedly from what he was then.

I don't think that (nor playing next to a rookie and in front of one) can be excluded from play into Star's apparent drop off last year, but I acknowledge that I did not deep-dive into the DL play last year.

 

Quote

3) Question.......if you "tie up 2 blockers on every play"........but you play less than 50% of snaps.........aren't you mathematically single blocked?  

 

No

 

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

What do you think his production is worth?    

I'm not talking about stats.

Do you think he's so uniquely talented for McFrazier's special ops 1 tech position that it can be verified neither by eye or stat test whether his contributions are worth $26.5M guaranteed?

What's the difference between what Lorax says about Star and what Hyde said about "Nate Favre" Peterman?

It seems like bickering for the sake of bickering...........they clearly overpaid by A LOT and that will be more than clarified soon enough.

 

I've addressed the contract value question elsewhere....I wasn't a fan of the signing overall, and I certainly don't think he's uniquely talented for McDermott's system.  We more-or-less agree that Beane often seems to get a pass for "cleaning up" a cap mess he largely created by sweeping the roster clean.  I think McDermott had reasons for wanting this guy specifically, and I hope they are fulfilled not just on the field, but in his off-field prep and mentoring.

 

I just don't roll with being "shocked, shocked" that the guy played less than 50% of the snaps, when that was the case during the best D McDermott fielded in CAR and McDermott is known to want a DL rotation - and frankly, if they overpaid, at the time, they may have had to overpay to bring in the guys they wanted.  Not many FA lining up to come to a team without a QB that appears to be jettisoning players.

 

What Hyde said about "Nate Favre" Peterman was proven exactly correct - it was taken in the media as praise, but in fact had a possible different interpretation of being reckless with the ball and throwing a lot of picks - which one must admit is exactly what Peterman did.  Favre led the league in INTs several seasons.  Albeit, he didn't throw 5 per half ever that I know of.  So Nate Favre outdid the Master Gunslinger there.

 

By the way, what I view as KW's best seasons were 2012-2015 (injury shortened), when he was 29-32 yrs old.  So 30 can be a prime age for a DT, even an "undersized" one such as Kyle.

[Big Turk]

On 1/15/2019 at 11:33 AM, MJS said:

I'm fine with him, but it does seem his paycheck is too large for the role he is playing. Hopefully that doesn't impact us negatively in the future.

 

Anybody know the details of his contract and when the Bills have a good out?

 

The team has plenty of cap room...they aren't paying a QB yet so no need to panic...his deal will expire before the Bills would need to commit major jack to a QB.

Edited April 30, 2019 by matter2003

[ColoradoBills]

20 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

This is a pretty apt summation and I would also be in Group 3.  Star's contract makes him something like the #9 paid DLman.  I think that's about 5-10 slots too high, depending upon contract details I'm not motivated to excavate right now.

 

My point overall would be, be startled by his performance or lack thereof on the field (as you like), but

1) not by his snap count, which is the same as it was in great defense years in Carolina (2014-2015)

2) not by his % of the Bills cap, which is #1 only because (as you point out) we don't have any marquee players we're paying - he'd only be #5-#8 on many another team

3) it's legitimately very tough to look at an OLman (or a DT) and grade their performance on each play from the outside, because you don't know what the assignment was.

 

I was under-impressed by the signing when it happened and felt at the time we had over-paid for the player he was.  But if the coaches and players say he's doing what he's asked, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and hope that Horrible Harry takes a step and that Oliver is "all that", and he can return towards his Carolina form this year.

 

 

I looked at the snap count and see your point.

Also, I agree his role is hard to evaluate.  So it's up to OBD to value him correctly (which is hard for us to do).

 

The only thing about a player like Star will be McDermott and the "loyalty" factor if his play is not in line with cost.

Maybe I should say "his guy" type of a thing.  I don't think any of us yet know where that lies.

I don't think he's Rex Ryan kind of HC (LOL, I pray he isn't) but I'm looking at this years roster and seeing IF there can be a clue to it.

Right or wrong I'm using DiMarco as the canary in the coal mine this year.  I think his usefulness has played out.

 

I digressed, but I also kind of think that McDermott is more the emotional guy and Beane is more the business guy.

I hope they work together well.

 

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I looked at the snap count and see your point.

Also, I agree his role is hard to evaluate.  So it's up to OBD to value him correctly (which is hard for us to do).

 

The only thing about a player like Star will be McDermott and the "loyalty" factor if his play is not in line with cost.

Maybe I should say "his guy" type of a thing.  I don't think any of us yet know where that lies.

I don't think he's Rex Ryan kind of HC (LOL, I pray he isn't) but I'm looking at this years roster and seeing IF there can be a clue to it.

Right or wrong I'm using DiMarco as the canary in the coal mine this year.  I think his usefulness has played out.

 

I digressed, but I also kind of think that McDermott is more the emotional guy and Beane is more the business guy.

I hope they work together well.

 

You make the point that I was thinking about. I don't think we have any idea what it was that caused McDermott and Beane to want to bring Star to the Bills. I firmly believe it was some combination of his play, and his attitude and his leadership skills.

 

McDermott has said often that it is important to have a leader in every room. That means he wanted to have a leader in the defensive line room, and he knew that Kyle Williams would be leaving after 2018. I think Beane signed Star in order to fill the leadership void in the defensive line room. He also signed him because they knew about his work ethic and his general leadership skills.

 

I think any effort to evaluate whether Star is worth what he's being paid has to be made in light of what it was that McDermott and Beane wanted, and I don't think we really understand that fully.

 

As others have said, even his play on the field is tough to evaluate.  If his job is to force double teams and simply to occupy blockers, I doubt any of us has studied his play that carefully to know how effective he has been. And M D platoons d linemen, so expecting much more tha. 50% of the snaps isn't reasonable.  

 

I think Beane knew exactly what he was doing when he wrote that check. 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That may be, but the KW I remember ran in 2013-2015 - and the last few years have seen him drop off markedly from what he was then.

I don't think that (nor playing next to a rookie and in front of one) can be excluded from play into Star's apparent drop off last year, but I acknowledge that I did not deep-dive into the DL play last year.

 

 

No

 

 

I've addressed the contract value question elsewhere....I wasn't a fan of the signing overall, and I certainly don't think he's uniquely talented for McDermott's system.  We more-or-less agree that Beane often seems to get a pass for "cleaning up" a cap mess he largely created by sweeping the roster clean.  I think McDermott had reasons for wanting this guy specifically, and I hope they are fulfilled not just on the field, but in his off-field prep and mentoring.

 

I just don't roll with being "shocked, shocked" that the guy played less than 50% of the snaps, when that was the case during the best D McDermott fielded in CAR and McDermott is known to want a DL rotation - and frankly, if they overpaid, at the time, they may have had to overpay to bring in the guys they wanted.  Not many FA lining up to come to a team without a QB that appears to be jettisoning players.

 

What Hyde said about "Nate Favre" Peterman was proven exactly correct - it was taken in the media as praise, but in fact had a possible different interpretation of being reckless with the ball and throwing a lot of picks - which one must admit is exactly what Peterman did.  Favre led the league in INTs several seasons.  Albeit, he didn't throw 5 per half ever that I know of.

 

 

1) No doubt.

 

2) I was anything but shocked that a down trending two down lineman played less than half of the snaps on a bad team.    Knew that would be the case.   He was in decline in Carolina that's why the signing was universally panned.  He fell off even more than anticipated though.  The fact that there weren't many FA lining up to sign with Buffalo is part of the reason you keep your own players.  Kept KB on the roster for most of a season where he wasn't even trying........but couldn't make it work with Dareus who was.   Lord McDermott works in mysterious ways.  

 

3) Hyde on Brandon Reilly:

 

"I feel like he's that (Adam) Thielen from Minnesota type guy," Hyde said. "He doesn't look like he's going to beat you over the top. He doesn't look like he's going to go up and get a ball on you. But when that ball is thrown, he's going to make plays."

 

Are we clear about the value of quotes from players about teammates?

 

[dave mcbride]

57 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It's not $10M per.  He was guaranteed $26.5M at signing.

 

Obviously you don't see Star on the roster in 2021 because you didn't answer the question.

 

If he's cut after this year.........which seems likely after his "performance" last year........ he will have cost them about $14M per season.

I quickly adjusted my response after I posted that. See above.

[ColoradoBills]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You make the point that I was thinking about. I don't think we have any idea what it was that caused McDermott and Beane to want to bring Star to the Bills. I firmly believe it was some combination of his play, and his attitude and his leadership skills.

 

McDermott has said often that it is important to have a leader in every room. That means he wanted to have a leader in the defensive line room, and he knew that Kyle Williams would be leaving after 2018. I think Beane signed Star in order to fill the leadership void in the defensive line room. He also signed him because they knew about his work ethic and his general leadership skills.

 

I think any effort to evaluate whether Star is worth what he's being paid has to be made in light of what it was that McDermott and Beane wanted, and I don't think we really understand that fully.

 

As others have said, even his play on the field is tough to evaluate.  If his job is to force double teams and simply to occupy blockers, I doubt any of us has studied his play that carefully to know how effective he has been. And M D platoons d linemen, so expecting much more tha. 50% of the snaps isn't reasonable.  

 

I think Beane knew exactly what he was doing when he wrote that check. 

 

I'm sure he was.  He is also needed to fill the role he plays in McDermott's D.  It is by definition a thankless job.

I also have speculated that when Edmunds was drafted (and was struggling some) that McDermott would of wanted Star to keep

Tremaine as clean as possible.  How well Star and Edmunds play together will be very important this year.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

What??? When did I ever say that poor cap management is acceptable? And when is $10 million per a sky-high contract #? It's truly middle-of-the road -- i.e., completely normal -- for mid-career (still in their 20s) d-line vets who have performed well in the past. To be clear, I am not passing judgment on his performance last season. The Bills gave Dareus $16 mil per and Mario Williams $16.5 mill per in a period when the cap was literally $57 million less in 2012 and $34 million less in 2015 than than it was last season.

 

People really should look at sportrac and bone up on cap history. It goes up a lot every year because the league makes even more boatloads of money ever year! The Bills most expensive player NEXT season will be Mitch Morse (not Star!) at $11 million per, which is PEANUTS for a best-paid player. 

 

 

In context those were every down ALL PRO type players that would earn $20M+ with those resumes on the open market now.

 

And a good NT back then was lucky to get $4M.   If they were lucky.  Terrance Knighton would be a KIND comp to Lotulelei from that period.

 

Snax Harrison blew the lid off of the NT market with his $10M plus deal with the Giants but that dude was not just a plugger he was getting 80 tackles per year!

 

No matter how you slice it the payday they gave Star was nuts.   2.5x the guarantee that the Panthers gave his replacement Dontari Poe.    Neither played well last year(PFF rated Poe considerably higher) but at least the Panthers aren't tied into a declining DT by a huge contract.   Very, very poor value.    

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

 

 

I would like for Star's play (statistics and snap count) to be better this year.  However, I don't think Star's contract is anything to

worry about this year unless his play falls off a cliff. 

 

 

 

 

It fell off a cliff last year.

 

He was not providing the challenge he used to for OL and statistically he was invisible.

 

Compare his production in Carolina to the numbers of Damon Harrison when he broke the zero/one tech market when he signed with the NYG.

 

That guy was getting 80 tackles per season AND occupying two blockers and making plays in the backfield..........and even then people shook their heads about the contract because it's not a skillset that is worth that much money.   

 

That's why people scoffed at the Star signing.

 

But then he went out and was a shell of his former self.

 

I think some fans don't realize that the starting point of what he was doing in Carolina wasn't even worth the money.

 

 

[Reed83HOF]

I assume this contract was debated at the time we signed him, frankly I don't recall the exact reasons. To replace Dareus, McD presumably wanted someone he knew to continue to change the culture of the team, he wanted the leadership, the accountability and someone who also bought into the process. Additionally they needed to fill a hole:

 

After trading Marcell Dareus to the Jacksonville Jaguars last October, the Bills allowed a league-high 18 rushing touchdowns and an AFC-worst 1,487 rush yards, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Of those yards, 1,105 were inside the tackles, and opponents' 4.8 yards per rush inside the tackles was tied for worst in the NFL. 2016 third-round pick Adolphus Washington filled in for Dareus and was ranked 113th among NFL defensive tackles by Pro Football Focus. 

 

The Panthers ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (88.1) last season. If Lotulelei did not perform well, Carolina's run defense did not suffer because of it. Moreover, Bills coach Sean McDermott should have a strong idea of how Lotulelei fits into his defensive system after coaching him for four seasons (2013-16) as Panthers defensive coordinator

 

You also have to look at the state of the team. In the 2017 offseason, after we hired McD, fired the FO, passed over Mahomes, traded Watkins, lost woods, overpaid Tolbert, traded darues during the season and got lucky by making the playoffs and over acheived that year. In 2018 new GM, traded TT, Signed AJ, traded Glenn, drafted a not widely loved QB in the draft, John brown wouldn't sign here, etc; the HC declared Nate the starter, Vontae quit at half time,  yadda yadda yadda. Not exactly a model of stability.

 

We overpaid to bring a guy the HC trusted to help with the transition and fill a self-made hole (yes Dareus was an ####### and needed to go). It sure wasn't a great contract for performance, but that was not the entire reason he came in here IMO. The presence he brought into the locker room I assume accounted for a couple million and this year, we had no problem signing FAs. If he played any role in helping turn the tide in terms of stability and getting players to trust the process, he was worth it. That being said, going forward, we should not be handing out awful contracts, which we did not do this offseason when we signed like 879,321 players. 

 

JMO

 

[Shaw66]

35 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

  We more-or-less agree that Beane often seems to get a pass for "cleaning up" a cap mess he largely created by sweeping the roster clean.  I think McDermott had reasons for wanting this guy specifically

Beane's been clear.  They had a choice.  They didn't have the players they wanted.  They could have moved them over a few years and managed the cap less drastically or they could clean house and live with the cap mess.  They decided that the fastest way to get where they want to be was clean house.

 

Given that, I don't think the notion of "getting a pass" applies.  Like lots of new GMs and coaches, they wanted different players.  The only question of relevance is whether they're getting the job done. It looks to me like they are.  The particular question here is whether getting Star and at his price was a good move.  I don't.know, and I don't trust anyone's conclusions here about that.  I'd like to know what McB thinks about that question. 

[eball]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

OMG, was I this annoying when I was a homer?  I get constant negative people suck but you’re the exact opposite.  But you’re right.  Lorax would definitely come out and say Star was overpaid.  Are you serious?

 

if this was a Whaley signing, people would kill him. $10 million for a guy who can be playbooked off the field is not a great investment.  The Pats would simply go spread and Star couldn’t play.  That’s not great. 

 

 

Star is/was a piece of the transition puzzle -- a McD guy who would reinforce the culture.  I'm sure they expected more out of him, but I won't call the signing a "swing and miss" because the Bills' D was actually pretty good.  As others have noted, 10-14M/season isn't an exorbitant deal under the current cap.  If Star only plays half the snaps this season and is gone after 2019 the Bills won't be in bad shape.

 

So my point, at the end of the day, is why are we so concerned about Star's contract?

[ColoradoBills]

43 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It fell off a cliff last year.

 

He was not providing the challenge he used to for OL and statistically he was invisible.

 

Compare his production in Carolina to the numbers of Damon Harrison when he broke the zero/one tech market when he signed with the NYG.

 

That guy was getting 80 tackles per season AND occupying two blockers and making plays in the backfield..........and even then people shook their heads about the contract because it's not a skillset that is worth that much money.   

 

That's why people scoffed at the Star signing.

 

But then he went out and was a shell of his former self.

 

I think some fans don't realize that the starting point of what he was doing in Carolina wasn't even worth the money.

 

 

 

Bad, it's not that I disagree with your points.  I believe they all have merit.

I guess we just differ on the degree.  I also am sticking with Star trying to keep the rookie kid as free as possible.

Star "ain't goin' nowhere" this year so we all will see how he performs this coming season.

I know you will be watching!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

32 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Beane's been clear.  They had a choice.  They didn't have the players they wanted.  They could have moved them over a few years and managed the cap less drastically or they could clean house and live with the cap mess.  They decided that the fastest way to get where they want to be was clean house.

 

Given that, I don't think the notion of "getting a pass" applies.  Like lots of new GMs and coaches, they wanted different players.  The only question of relevance is whether they're getting the job done. It looks to me like they are.  The particular question here is whether getting Star and at his price was a good move.  I don't.know, and I don't trust anyone's conclusions here about that.  I'd like to know what McB thinks about that question. 

 

Well, you kind of illustrate the point. 

 

The popular notion is that Beane inherited a cap mess from Whaley and had no choice but to scrape the roster into the dustbin and eat the cap hits. 

 

Your take is correct: they had a choice, and they chose to clean house of players they didn't want and handle the cap drastically.

 

But that doesn't mean others don't take or haven't expressed the viewpoint that they absolutely had no choice (ie, they get a pass).  They have and do. 

 

Are they getting the job done?  I don't know.  Objectively, some good, some bad.  #2 D on yards last year, not too shabby - need to give up a few less points and toughen up the run D.

The offense has been floundering, and the initial acquisitions we made on OL and at WR have not worked out well.  So we're in the position of "hoping the rook QB takes a big step in his 2nd season" and hoping this year's OL and WR acquisitions work better.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Are they getting the job done?  I don't know.  Objectively, some good, some bad.  #2 D on yards last year, not too shabby - need to give up a few less points and toughen up the run D.

 

 

 

 

 

The yardage based stats are kind to the Bills because the lead the NFL in permitting the best field position to start drives.........meaning on average that they had the least amount of yards to allow in the NFL before giving up a score.

 

They were also LOUSY in the red zone.

 

That's where a DT who can't get past the LOS is a big problem.

 

People think you want to get bigger in the redzone.........you want to get QUICKER in the redzone........penetration is the key there.

 

Hopefully Ed Oliver helps that but the exchange is a pretty good Kyle Williams so it's not 100% gain...........they need Star or Harrison (or another player to maybe become available the way Snacks did last year) and that guy needs to show enough to command some attention on quick hitting redzone plays.

[ColoradoBills]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, you kind of illustrate the point. 

 

The popular notion is that Beane inherited a cap mess from Whaley and had no choice but to scrape the roster into the dustbin and eat the cap hits. 

 

Your take is correct: they had a choice, and they chose to clean house of players they didn't want and handle the cap drastically.

 

But that doesn't mean others don't take or haven't expressed the viewpoint that they absolutely had no choice (ie, they get a pass).  They have and do. 

 

Are they getting the job done?  I don't know.  Objectively, some good, some bad.  #2 D on yards last year, not too shabby - need to give up a few less points and toughen up the run D.

The offense has been floundering, and the initial acquisitions we made on OL and at WR have not worked out well.  So we're in the position of "hoping the rook QB takes a big step in his 2nd season" and hoping this year's OL and WR acquisitions work better.

 

 

 

The only thing I would add is Daboll.  People wanted to hang him after 3 games last year. The guy had nothing to work with.

We will see if the Bills got a competent or dare we hope better than competent OC.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

14 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

The yardage based stats are kind to the Bills because the lead the NFL in permitting the best field position to start drives.........meaning on average that they had the least amount of yards to allow in the NFL before giving up a score.

 

Hmmm...

Usually, when yards and points don't match with points much worse, it's a sign that the D is being disadvantaged by TOs.  And we did have a lot of offensive TOs, tied for 2nd most in the league last year.

 

I don't think a 3 yd difference in average drive start between us and our opponents should be that significant?  I don't doubt you, but what are you looking at to say that?

[MJS]

2 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

The team has plenty of cap room...they aren't paying a QB yet so no need to panic...his deal will expire before the Bills would need to commit major jack to a QB.

All true. My comment was from back in January, though. For some reason someone decided to resurrect this thread.

[dave mcbride]

25 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

The yardage based stats are kind to the Bills because the lead the NFL in permitting the best field position to start drives.........meaning on average that they had the least amount of yards to allow in the NFL before giving up a score.

 

They were also LOUSY in the red zone.

 

That's where a DT who can't get past the LOS is a big problem.

 

People think you want to get bigger in the redzone.........you want to get QUICKER in the redzone........penetration is the key there.

 

Hopefully Ed Oliver helps that but the exchange is a pretty good Kyle Williams so it's not 100% gain...........they need Star or Harrison (or another player to maybe become available the way Snacks did last year) and that guy needs to show enough to command some attention on quick hitting redzone plays.

#2 in defensive DVOA, which is a lot more important than the counting stats (to me, at least).  The key driver in that was the fact that opposing QBs had a collective passer rating of 82.6, which is REALLY low in this day and age (3rd in the league behind Baltimore and Chicago:  http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&offensiveStatisticCategory=null&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=PASSING_PASSER_RATING&tabSeq=2&season=2018&role=OPP&Submit=Go&archive=false&conference=null&defensiveStatisticCategory=TEAM_PASSING&qualified=false).  Team passer rating differential is the king of all stats, but the issue for the Bills is that their own team passer rating was a hilariously low 62.6. It's hard to be that bad. Even Arizona's historically awful offense had a team rating of 69.0. 

The Bills' D was 3rd in net yards per passing attempt and 10th in yards given up per rush. Pretty good across the board relative to the rest of the league ... 

Edited April 30, 2019 by dave mcbride

[Shaw66]

39 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Well, you kind of illustrate the point. 

 

The popular notion is that Beane inherited a cap mess from Whaley and had no choice but to scrape the roster into the dustbin and eat the cap hits. 

 

Your take is correct: they had a choice, and they chose to clean house of players they didn't want and handle the cap drastically.

 

But that doesn't mean others don't take or haven't expressed the viewpoint that they absolutely had no choice (ie, they get a pass).  They have and do. 

 

Are they getting the job done?  I don't know.  Objectively, some good, some bad.  #2 D on yards last year, not too shabby - need to give up a few less points and toughen up the run D.

The offense has been floundering, and the initial acquisitions we made on OL and at WR have not worked out well.  So we're in the position of "hoping the rook QB takes a big step in his 2nd season" and hoping this year's OL and WR acquisitions work better.

 

 

Got it.  They had a choice.  You can argue about whether it would have been possible to build a winner just moving forward with what McD inherited.  I really dont know.  

 

On another point, good discussion about how significant second I. total yards really is.  I like the points about DVOA and passer rating.  Those are two gos measures of how effective the D really was.  My impression was that the offense struggled so that badly that the defense simply couldn't win games alone.  A decent offense with that defense would have won a.bumch of games. 

 

O line has to perform this season.  And Allen.  And Daboll.