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YoloinOhio

Shaq Lawson 5th year option on the table

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3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

This team desperately needs offense, and Lawson is an average-to-above-average NFL player at this point. If you want to compare, I'd say he's probably comparable to Robert Woods with regard to how fans viewed him going into his year 4 season. They shouldn't be drafting for a replacement when they already have a decent player there and when the extension isn't that expensive given their cap situation. I'm not opposed to drafting DE if the guy is elite, mind you, but they simply have to fix the desperate offensive talent situation. They'll never go better than 9-7 without truly committing to a serious upgrade on that side of the ball.

I completely agree that the offense needs a lot of focus this off season.

 

Just because we have the money available in 2020 to give Shaq, doesn't mean we should automatically pick up the 5th year option.  You have to balance if his value meets the contract and how it impacts other positional targets, just like you said.

 

I think we need a better pass rush.  Jerry is not getting any younger, either is Zo and he's not even under contract yet, Kyle just retired, and Murphy hasn't shown that he can stay healthy or provide a consistent pass rush either.  

 

Top 10 pick in a class with supposed top end talent, it might be the right time to retool the position.  And save the 5th year option on Shaq, unless the front office thinks he's proven enough or on the correct projectory.  You don't typically hand out the 5th year option for run setting defensive ends, but who knows, we shall see.

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30 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel said:

 

I just disagree with this, even as a rotational DE we can do better imo, I can get behind the fact that we drafted him to be a pass rusher but found out he was better against the run, is there any statistic that shows that he's good against the run, if that's the case why did we end up 19th in the league defending against the run? And of his 4 sacks this season 2 of them came in the Miami game week 17.  His fifth year option will give him 9M+ according to this website https://www.profootballrumors.com/2018/04/nfl-fifth-year-option-salaries-2019, there is no way 4 sacks and run stuffing is worth 9M+ a season.

 

 

You seem to be arguing against yourself.  Read through everything I have written.  I would not pay the 5th year option - I have repeatedly said that.

 

If you can lock him up at 5 million per season - you are not getting much better for a rotational DE.

 

Heck looking at Spotrac and guys stats - he is not a bad rotational player.

 

His stats compare favorably to Quinn, Wake, and Branch in Miami and they all are close or above 10 million a season.  Go To the Rams and guys like Fowler and Brockers have fewer sacks and passes defended again at way more money and with Donald and Suh as DTs. Try Dallas with Crawford with less tackles, sacks, passes defended and forced fumbles, but making 3 times as much money.

 

Even some peers like Leonard Williams In NY - started 16 games and is a full time player and his numbers are on par with Lawson’s and Lawson plays less snaps.

 

Williams has 42 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 passes defended and no forced fumbles - 16 games started and played.

 

Lawson has 30 tackles, 4 sacks, 6 passes defended, and 2 forced fumbles in 2 less games and several games where he was the rotational guy just filling in.

 

So again if you can get him to sign off on a longer term extension right now I would do it.  I would not exercise the 5th year option unless I have to because that exceeds his value as a rotational DE.

 

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On 12/31/2018 at 3:58 PM, whatdrought said:

I’d offer him a contract for 5-7 million a year for 3-5 years and decent guarantees. I doubt he’d get better on the market.

 

With you on this topic, rather would see an extension for reasonable money.

 

The option pick up sounds pricey relative to the overall production, granted this year has been his best.  

 

If the the option is the only way he’s probably still worth retaining to see if he’s still growing, improving. 

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An indication of how the Bills feel about Shaq is how many articles I'm seeing on Facebook and BuffaloBills.com. Just saw one today. Usually players that are on their way out are not spoken of. So I'm predicting that the Bills will pick up his 5th year.

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36 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

An indication of how the Bills feel about Shaq is how many articles I'm seeing on Facebook and BuffaloBills.com. Just saw one today. Usually players that are on their way out are not spoken of. So I'm predicting that the Bills will pick up his 5th year.

Beane said in his end of year presser that they like Shaq's approach to the game this year, his commitment, and his resultant play.  He clearly had a turnaround this year.  Beane also said they were going to wait and see how his offseason progressed.  I suppose he wants to make sure that Shaq can maintain that commitment until making a decision on his future with the Bills, which makes sense.  It seems up to Shaq, but I do expect the Bills want to keep him at this point.  

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On 12/31/2018 at 3:53 PM, aceman_16 said:

Skip it. IF he plays well tag him....it will cost about the same anyhow and it will keep him hungry.  if not, the Bills just dump him.

No the Tag cost a lot more.

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On 12/31/2018 at 3:00 PM, boater said:

 

Buffalo needs to avoid a reputation as a tagging team.

 

If you have a rep for tagging, that's a turn-off for free agents that visit. Buffalo is going to have a hard time attracting free agents as it is, last thing needed is a rep for tagging.

You can't franchise tag free agents. The franchise tag is used on players that you drafted. 

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5 minutes ago, Watkins90 said:

You can't franchise tag free agents. The franchise tag is used on players that you drafted. 

 

5th year options are for drafted players in round 1.  A team can tag any player.

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It’s only guaranteed for injury until the start of that season when it becomes fully guaranteed.  They can exercise and rescind later if they can’t work out a LTD and don’t think he’s worth it. The injury risk is worth that IMO. 

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No way we pick up the option. Mkt value at this time is a lot less. Maybe offer him a 3 yr 18 mill deal with about 12 guaranteed.

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On 1/2/2019 at 1:03 PM, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

You seem to be arguing against yourself.  Read through everything I have written.  I would not pay the 5th year option - I have repeatedly said that.

 

If you can lock him up at 5 million per season - you are not getting much better for a rotational DE.

 

Heck looking at Spotrac and guys stats - he is not a bad rotational player.

 

His stats compare favorably to Quinn, Wake, and Branch in Miami and they all are close or above 10 million a season.  Go To the Rams and guys like Fowler and Brockers have fewer sacks and passes defended again at way more money and with Donald and Suh as DTs. Try Dallas with Crawford with less tackles, sacks, passes defended and forced fumbles, but making 3 times as much money.

 

Even some peers like Leonard Williams In NY - started 16 games and is a full time player and his numbers are on par with Lawson’s and Lawson plays less snaps.

 

Williams has 42 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 passes defended and no forced fumbles - 16 games started and played.

 

Lawson has 30 tackles, 4 sacks, 6 passes defended, and 2 forced fumbles in 2 less games and several games where he was the rotational guy just filling in.

 

So again if you can get him to sign off on a longer term extension right now I would do it.  I would not exercise the 5th year option unless I have to because that exceeds his value as a rotational DE.

 

 

 

His stats also compare favorably with Courtney Upshaw while with Baltimore.    

 

Your list of comparison examples are all players who are playing well below their projections when they inked those deals............it's by no means an indication of what teams want to pay for that kind of production.

 

I think Shaq is still A LOT closer to his floor(Upshaw) than his ceiling(Melvin Ingram).

 

And teams basically just got bored with Upshaw...........who, like Shaq, couldn't beat the RT in front of him in pass rush.

 

Edited by BADOLBILZ

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14 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

His stats also compare favorably with Courtney Upshaw while with Baltimore.    

 

Your list of comparison examples are all players who are playing well below their projections when they inked those deals............it's by no means an indication of what teams want to pay for that kind of production.

 

I think Shaq is still A LOT closer to his floor(Upshaw) than his ceiling(Melvin Ingram).

 

And teams basically just got bored with Upshaw...........who, like Shaq, couldn't beat the RT in front of him in pass rush.

 

To be fair to Shaq, he has made silk from a sow's ear in one respect: his inability to get to the QB has evidently sunk in with him, and he's bizarrely one of the better shot blockers I've seen in a long time. It's not a bad skill, and it's not that much worse than a sack. 

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10 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

To be fair to Shaq, he has made silk from a sow's ear in one respect: his inability to get to the QB has evidently sunk in with him, and he's bizarrely one of the better shot blockers I've seen in a long time. It's not a bad skill, and it's not that much worse than a sack. 

 

 

Meh....I disagree.........I think a batted pass is of considerable less value than a sack or a hurry.

 

Sacks lead to lost yardage and often fumbles and turnovers and cause QB's to be cognizant of the rush and perhaps rush subsequent throws.

 

Hurries also create wasted downs and opportunities for turnovers.

 

Batted balls are nice.......like a tackle for no gain in the run game.

 

Teams don't pay $5M-$7M for the kind of projected production Shaq has provided so far.............and considering his track record he really should have that free agency carrot in front of him until he proves he's worth $5M-$10M per year...........if he turns into the next Michael Strahan next year, so be it..........no shortage of cap room in immediate future.    

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If the bills like Shaq, would they not be more so inclined to ink him to a long term extension, possibly worth slightly more upfront than they want to give him, but based on their current available cap space? Seems that if they like him, they may as well ink him long term rather than pick up the option for essentially a single season rental at a high price. 

 

On a similar note, is now not a good time to look into reworking Hyde/Poyers deal to try and extend them with current funds for years to come, especially if there is nothing they seem more fit spending their money on. 

 

Edit: Can they rework Tre White's deal yet? 

 

 

Edited by EmotionallyUnstable

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1 hour ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

If the bills like Shaq, would they not be more so inclined to ink him to a long term extension, possibly worth slightly more upfront than they want to give him, but based on their current available cap space? Seems that if they like him, they may as well ink him long term rather than pick up the option for essentially a single season rental at a high price. 

 

On a similar note, is now not a good time to look into reworking Hyde/Poyers deal to try and extend them with current funds for years to come, especially if there is nothing they seem more fit spending their money on. 

 

Edit: Can they rework Tre White's deal yet? 

 

 

 

I believe they can extend White after next season. I think it's after 3 years of a rookie deal. 

Edited by MrEpsYtown

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No brainer, he won't get the option.  He's not worth anywhere near the option #, which was $9.1M for a DE this past year (expect that to climb to about $9.5M this year.)

 

If by mid season he looks to be a player you'd like to keep around go ahead and offer him a 3 year extension, but I don't see the benefit of the team picking up the option, simply because the # just so far exceeds his value.

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On 1/2/2019 at 1:03 PM, Rochesterfan said:

 

 

You seem to be arguing against yourself.  Read through everything I have written.  I would not pay the 5th year option - I have repeatedly said that.

 

If you can lock him up at 5 million per season - you are not getting much better for a rotational DE.

 

Heck looking at Spotrac and guys stats - he is not a bad rotational player.

 

His stats compare favorably to Quinn, Wake, and Branch in Miami and they all are close or above 10 million a season.  Go To the Rams and guys like Fowler and Brockers have fewer sacks and passes defended again at way more money and with Donald and Suh as DTs. Try Dallas with Crawford with less tackles, sacks, passes defended and forced fumbles, but making 3 times as much money.

 

Even some peers like Leonard Williams In NY - started 16 games and is a full time player and his numbers are on par with Lawson’s and Lawson plays less snaps.

 

Williams has 42 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 passes defended and no forced fumbles - 16 games started and played.

 

Lawson has 30 tackles, 4 sacks, 6 passes defended, and 2 forced fumbles in 2 less games and several games where he was the rotational guy just filling in.

 

So again if you can get him to sign off on a longer term extension right now I would do it.  I would not exercise the 5th year option unless I have to because that exceeds his value as a rotational DE.

 

Given this information I don’t see anyway around either exercising his option OR an extension in the $9-11 million a year. Teams will and always do over pay defensive ends like Lawson. 

Personally I feel it is a damned if you do damned if you don’t. Lawson peaked last year. With more playing time he might get more sacks and tackles or he might not. Whose to say him rotating in didn’t keep him fresher and able to make plays? 

If i am the Bills I have to decide either lock him up for 3 years and $30 million with $18 guaranteed ( even this could be low)or let him test FA. 

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On 12/31/2018 at 2:42 PM, YoloinOhio said:

I say yes!

I thought he had a pretty decent year  and he definitely took a step forward , according to McD own words he’s been working his butt of

( practice) and earned his playing time on Sunday’s , Maybe it’s just me but I didn’t think signing his to a 5th year option would even be a debate 🤷‍♂️

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On 1/2/2019 at 12:23 PM, dabills21 said:

I completely agree that the offense needs a lot of focus this off season.

 

Just because we have the money available in 2020 to give Shaq, doesn't mean we should automatically pick up the 5th year option.  You have to balance if his value meets the contract and how it impacts other positional targets, just like you said.

 

I think we need a better pass rush.  Jerry is not getting any younger, either is Zo and he's not even under contract yet, Kyle just retired, and Murphy hasn't shown that he can stay healthy or provide a consistent pass rush either.  

 

Top 10 pick in a class with supposed top end talent, it might be the right time to retool the position.  And save the 5th year option on Shaq, unless the front office thinks he's proven enough or on the correct projectory.  You don't typically hand out the 5th year option for run setting defensive ends, but who knows, we shall see.

Add Dexter Lawrence and Austin Bryant to the defensive front with Shaq 

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For the people debating the value of Shaq’s ability to block passes at the line vs sack the QB, I would submit that the NFL passing game has evolved in a way that should significantly increase the value of DL pass blockers.  Quick slants, WR moving pick plays, etc are the new norm of passing offenses.  These plays are extremely difficult, if not impossible for the DB to defend (boarderline but rarely called offensive pass-interference) and the ball comes out so quickly a sack is nearly impossible to achieve.  These plays are called frequently on important downs such as 3rd downs and near the goal line.  Also slants and other quick strikes frequently turn into huge plays (Tyreek Hill for example).

 

On WR moving pick plays (Patriots run them all the time) outside of the QB/WR making a mistake, the only surfire way to defend these plays is to bat the ball down at the line.  Shaq has found a niche for this and should improve on as his experience and awareness grows.

 

This is not to say that sacks aren’t the more impactful of the two... just don’t discount the increased importance of pass defense within 3 to 5 yds of the line of scrimmage given how passing games have evolved.

Edited by Bill Murray

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i don't think he's reached his peak potential yet....not sure how high that ceiling is but, i do think he will get better.  i think the sticking point is maturity and that is the number 1 area in which the team may be concerned with.

 

i've heard lorax as well as murph and tasker talk about him and even though they give him praise for improvement, i did hear the phrase ( still immature ). i think the team will monitor this through the upcoming year and then offer an extension sometime during camp depending on roster moves up to that point.

 

however....i would not be surprised to see him in a trade deal if mcbeane wants to move up a couple of spots. 

for instance if we say...trade the jags a 4th, a 2020 pick and shaq for malik jackson and move up to 7? for josh allen.

 

the mocks i see have him going to the jets but,  i think they go dt there (oliver or williams). i really hope we land josh allen.

Edited by billsredneck1

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Shaq is just so meh. He's like the Ryan Tannehill of defensive ends. He does some things well(tipped passes, contain, etc), but not nearly enough to warrant that price tag.

 

I'm in favor of drafting an edge rusher at 9. I assume the option decision precedes the draft so that could tell us quite a bit about the direction they're going. I didn't know you could pick up the option and rescind. Seems practical but a little bit shady. In a perfect scenario, he takes a 4 year/18-20 mil deal, but I can guarantee you someone will outbid that if we decline the option and his performance is even just steady in 2019.

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Now way I pick up his 5th year option as he is not a 10 mill per year value. He is a nice OK player but if you give him 10 mill a year it is a hole you will not be able to climb out of, as the next contract will be expected to be at least 10 mill per year, or Shaqs agent is *****.

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Don't think he is worth his 5th year option, but he is definitely worth bringing back on a more friendly contract.  He isn't the pass rusher that they drafted him for but is a good role player on defense and makes for nice depth.

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