Buffalo News: PFF Breaks Down Josh Allen's Accuracy "Issue"

[thebandit27]

I haven't looked, but I'd be interested in knowing if any other QB has produced anywhere near the same percentage of his team's offensive yards and first downs as Allen.

 

To me, that's the biggest indicator that Allen is out there doing it on his own more so than any other QB right now.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 hours ago, Ayjent said:

I can and would if it was worth my time...my time is simply worth more than that. 

 

??? But it's worth your time to come here and make a bunch of unsupported assertions, then dis off the audience when you're called to defend them.

Riiiiiiiiight.

[Ronin]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

The Daboll bit was tongue in cheek. I'd be willing to bet 5k that he doesn't even get an interview. He's lucky to still have a job as an OC. I wasn't a fan of Trubisky and still believe Nagy is the main reason for his success. Although you point out some key distinctions, I still view them as similar QB's. But thanks for ruining that tiny flicker of hope I had/have for Josh Allen! Sheesh.

 

LOL

 

Sorry  

 

If it makes you feel any better I've gone from zero hope post-draft to a flicker myself.    

 

That flicker will still be there until sometime next season when Allen either overcomes those things, or conversely, continues to struggle with them.  If he's still struggling with them by mid-season next year then I'd say that the chances of him correcting them are nil.  That's not to say that he won't provide some excitement, but my hope and presumably yours asl well, is for a competitive team, not an "exciting QB" whatever that translates to, yet fruitless passing in the QB department.  If he can't at least add a good amount to Taylor's production, ... Right now he's not even doing that from a passing perspective.  And Taylor at least minimized his TOs, his INTs in particular.  Allen's close to duplicating what Kizer did last year in Cleveland leading to a what, -28 TO ratio season ending 0-16.  For some perspective, the 31st ranked team had -17.  

 

Enjoy the game today if you're going to watch, should be a good one with Kyle retiring.  

[BananaB]

6 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

I haven't looked, but I'd be interested in knowing if any other QB has produced anywhere near the same percentage of his team's offensive yards and first downs as Allen.

 

To me, that's the biggest indicator that Allen is out there doing it on his own more so than any other QB right now.

 

 

That is pretty much what is happening. Bills have the least desirable situation in the NFL for any QB, not just the rookies. Make shift line, no run game and a bunch of practice squad WRs. Oh yeah, let’s not forget Zay Jones.  Until the Bills start surrounding him with better players you won’t see much improvement from in his scouting report weaknesses. And coming from Wyoming he was in a similar situation that he is in with Buffalo right now. 

[Ronin]

40 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Hoping for the next Brady but thinking Allen is "highly unlikely" to be a successful NFL qb seems to me compatible with pessimist as I understand it. Pessimist doesn't mean "rooting for Allen to be bad." I liked Allen before the draft and I am encouraged by his overall play, so it's evident our criteria and sensibility differ greatly. I really don't see Jackson and Allen as the same type of player, though both obviously are garnering benefit from running ability. You seem to have put a lot of time and effort into scouting Allen. I don't think you're insincere or stupid. I do not spend that kind of time in analysis. My life is invested elsewhere too much and I doubt I have the acumen to do the close analysis some on here do. I have watched a lot of football over a fairly long life and I'm going to stick with my holistic vision of a fella, even if the number crunchers think differently. Regrettable that you think my tone is condescending. I also wish you a happy new year.

 

OK then, your opinions vs. my analysis.   

 

"I do not spend that kind of time in analysis."

 

I don't spend a ton of time anymore, but I'm good at it and efficient with it, and enjoy it, the same way that people enjoy TV shows for example, which I don't watch.  None.  So in the few hours/week, and primarily during the season, that I devote to that, I'm sure that other people spend it more fruitlessly elsewhere.  I can run some pretty complicated analyses fairly quickly using Excel.  The big key is knowing where to go to get the data since most sites simply proffer only the high-level stuff.  

 

BTW, I'm not sure how "holistic your vision of a fella" actually is if you dismiss any numerical analysis on him.  It would seem to contradict the meaning of the word holistic/holism.  Just sayin'.  

 

But yes, we will obviously differ greatly in our views as such, but keep in mind, I've watched him too, so I'm including all the things that you mentioned, which seemingly is simply watching him.  

 

BTW, I'lll dismiss the notion that you intended to be condescending.  But see how it works?  Knife cuts both ways, eh.   

 

Again, Happy New Year!  

[thebandit27]

9 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

LOL

 

Sorry  

 

If it makes you feel any better I've gone from zero hope post-draft to a flicker myself.    

 

That flicker will still be there until sometime next season when Allen either overcomes those things, or conversely, continues to struggle with them.  If he's still struggling with them by mid-season next year then I'd say that the chances of him correcting them are nil.  That's not to say that he won't provide some excitement, but my hope and presumably yours asl well, is for a competitive team, not an "exciting QB" whatever that translates to, yet fruitless passing in the QB department.  If he can't at least add a good amount to Taylor's production, ... Right now he's not even doing that from a passing perspective.  And Taylor at least minimized his TOs, his INTs in particular.  Allen's close to duplicating what Kizer did last year in Cleveland leading to a what, -28 TO ratio season ending 0-16.  For some perspective, the 31st ranked team had -17.  

 

Enjoy the game today if you're going to watch, should be a good one with Kyle retiring.  

 

I was close to understanding your point of view until that last bit about Allen being close to Kizer--there's no comparison.

 

Kizer was the winning QB zero times and turned the ball over at a far greater frequency. He also didn't make anywhere near as many plays as Allen.

[Ronin]

38 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Tyrod had some very good talent around him his first year in Buffalo.  He also had it with the Browns this year.  He is what he is.

 

 

With the exception of Rosen, who is also looking bad and largely also because of supporting cast, the other QB's have good running games, better OL's (and WR's and TE's). 

 

Allow me to ask, what talent did Tyrod have that Allen does not?  Benjamin was the team's best WR both years.  He did nothing for Tyrod either.  

 

Can you name those better OL's, RBs, WRs, and TEs please?  I'm not seeing it.  

 

Couldn't you also by the same stroke then, and not assuming that what you said is true, that Allen has a better defense to help him out as well?  I mean weren't we ranked 1st most of the season until last week, and then what, Ravens #1 us #2?  

 

You think that a rookie undrafted RB in Baltimore is better?  OK, not sure I agree.  And frankly, who'se fault is all that even if it's true?  And assuming it is, then why is McD/McBeane getting as much credit as they are for as you imply, leaving the offense talent-less?  

 

Big picture

[LSHMEAB]

10 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

 

If it makes you feel any better I've gone from zero hope post-draft to a flicker myself.    

 

 

That's exactly where I'm at. The ridiculous plays he's able to make combined with a league that caters to QB's have given me the slightest bit of hope. I use the Trubisky model quite a bit because I personally hated him as a prospect and am frankly a little surprised that he's been able to have some success. I still don't think he's particularly good, but he's effective enough. We all WANT Allen to succeed, but as you've clearly demonstrated, he'd be defying some serious statistical odds.

3 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Allow me to ask, what talent did Tyrod have that Allen does not?  Benjamin was the team's best WR both years.  He did nothing for Tyrod either.  

 

Can you name those better OL's, RBs, WRs, and TEs please?  I'm not seeing it.  

 

Couldn't you also by the same stroke then, and not assuming that what you said is true, that Allen has a better defense to help him out as well?  I mean weren't we ranked 1st most of the season until last week, and then what, Ravens #1 us #2?  

 

You think that a rookie undrafted RB in Baltimore is better?  OK, not sure I agree.  And frankly, who'se fault is all that even if it's true?  And assuming it is, then why is McD/McBeane getting as much credit as they are for as you imply, leaving the offense talent-less?  

 

Big picture

He's choosing to ignore 2017 and focusing on 2015.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's exactly where I'm at. The ridiculous plays he's able to make combined with a league that caters to QB's have given me the slightest bit of hope. I use the Trubisky model quite a bit because I personally hated him as a prospect and am frankly a little surprised that he's been able to have some success. I still don't think he's particularly good, but he's effective enough. We all WANT Allen to succeed, but as you've clearly demonstrated, he'd be defying some serious statistical odds.

 

Well there's an important lesson in Trubisky's case: take a QB that didn't play as well as allen as a rookie, surround him with speedy playmakers in an offense run by an innovative play caller and great things can happen 

[dakrider]

Its a complete waste of time to put any emphasis into an NFL rookie quarterback statistics period.  Several great NFL quarterbacks did not look very good at all their first year, and many others didn't play much their first year because they weren't good enough to be on the field. Rookie QB stats, and their overall play in general is just not indicative of how well their NFL career will end up.  There's been many quarterbacks come into the league who looked good their 1st or 2nd year and then never improved beyond that and became backups or got shuffled out of the league.  And many have looked poor or average at best and then a few years later look like all pro NFL QB's.  

Just like college success does not translate into NFL success for Quarterbacks, rookie QB success or failure does not translate into how their careers will end up.  
All this analyses should be saved for next year at this time.  

[GoBills808]

16 minutes ago, TaskersGhost said:

 

Allow me to ask, what talent did Tyrod have that Allen does not?  Benjamin was the team's best WR both years.  He did nothing for Tyrod either.  

 

Can you name those better OL's, RBs, WRs, and TEs please?  I'm not seeing it.  

 

Couldn't you also by the same stroke then, and not assuming that what you said is true, that Allen has a better defense to help him out as well?  I mean weren't we ranked 1st most of the season until last week, and then what, Ravens #1 us #2?  

 

You think that a rookie undrafted RB in Baltimore is better?  OK, not sure I agree.  And frankly, who'se fault is all that even if it's true?  And assuming it is, then why is McD/McBeane getting as much credit as they are for as you imply, leaving the offense talent-less?  

 

Big picture

You don’t see which offensive linemen from last season were better than the ones we have this season?

[Socal-805]

1 hour ago, Dr. Who said:

Yep. Are these folks projecting the same kind of stark absolutes they frequently engage in onto those they disagree with or are they using a sophist tactic of replacing actual counter-arguments with ridiculous straw men and then asking folks to defend what nobody asserts?

 

"In relative terms, he’s also been one of the least efficient QBs when it comes to hitting the target when the receiver is either open or wide open, with his 85.0 adjusted completion percentage on those throws ranking 38^th. His accuracy struggles don’t really favor any specific depth of the field either, they’ve persisted all over. Allen ranks 32^ndamong QBs with an 82.1 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling no more than nine yards in the air; he ranks 37^thwith a 52.9 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling between 10 and 19 yards in the air; and he ranks 32^nd with a 32.4 adjusted completion percentage on throws traveling 20 or more yards in the air."

 

 

He throws bad....

 

Which is.............  NOT good.

 

[Ronin]

50 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I was close to understanding your point of view until that last bit about Allen being close to Kizer--there's no comparison.

 

Kizer was the winning QB zero times and turned the ball over at a far greater frequency. He also didn't make anywhere near as many plays as Allen.

 

You sure about that?  

 

Wanna post the numbers to back it up?  

 

Because I see the difference between this season's team and last season's team as being the difference between last season's 7th-ranked +9 TO ratio and this season's 28th-ranked -8.  

 

Cleveland had the 32nd-ranked -28 last season and are 4th this season at +9.  

 

Of Cleveland's 41 total giveaways last season, Kizer had 28 of them.  22 INTs and 6 lost fumbles of 9 total fumbles.  He started 15 games.  

Of Buffalo's 31 giveaways this season, Allen has 13 of them.  11 INTs and 2 lost fumbles of 8 total fumbles.  He's started 10 games, 2/3 as many.  

 

Kizer's rate of TO was 1.9, Allen's is 1.3, but the big difference there is the recovered fumbles.  Allen's INT rate is worse than Mayfield and far worse than Jackson, his closest QB comp, and almost the same as Darnold and Rosen but both of them have more passing TDs, Darnold by over twice, and it's not because he has better WRs and RBs or even OL.  Allen ranks 29th of 33 in INT%, not good.  

 

Either way, at the same rate of recovered fumbles, which is essentially pure luck, Allen's TO rate moves to 1.5/game.  Allen has the worst TD/INT ratio of any QB in the league that has started more than a couple of games, meaning among starting QBs.  Rosen's close, but after that it's pretty distant to the next one.  

 

Either way, if you think he can continue on that path and become a franchise QB, great.  Not sure what to say, but  that's my primary point, things are going to have to change drastically in that way in order for Allen to become a franchise QB.  I understand that you disagree.  

 

On a side note I will point out that the Bills under McBeane have not been able to win games unless they generate TOs.  Under McBeane they've only won twice when they didn't finish the game with a positive TO margin. 

 

They won with a neutral +/-0 against Detroit and then only at -2 vs. Indy in last year's snow game. 

When they finish at +4 they're 1-0.

When the finish at +3 they're 3-0.

When they finish at +2 they're 5-1. 

When they finish at +1 they're 3-1. 

When they finish at +/-0 they're 1-5. 

When they finish at -1 they're 0-3. 

When they finish at -2 they're 0-5. 

When they finish at -3 or worse they're 0-4.  

 

Last season Taylor had just over half the total TOs that Allen's had over a full season.  The 0-16 Browns actually out-played us on average last seaason, the only significant difference was us having a +9 and them having a -28.  Imagine if last season we had the -8 we have this season.  You still think we've have finished 9-7?  I'm thinking more like 2-14 under those circumstances.  Say what we want about Taylor, but scoring was greater and TOs didn't happen much.  

 

Relying on TOs to win games is hardly a way to build a competitive team.  

 

Happy New Year!  

Edited December 30, 2018 by TaskersGhost

[Ronin]

40 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's exactly where I'm at. The ridiculous plays he's able to make combined with a league that caters to QB's have given me the slightest bit of hope. I use the Trubisky model quite a bit because I personally hated him as a prospect and am frankly a little surprised that he's been able to have some success. I still don't think he's particularly good, but he's effective enough. We all WANT Allen to succeed, but as you've clearly demonstrated, he'd be defying some serious statistical odds.

 

Indeed

 

The writer that wrote a pre-draft piece on him at Football Outsiders summarized it best when he closes by stating; 

 

"The conundrum with Allen is that these flashes -- the moments of pure brilliance -- come so few and far between. Allen dazzles once or twice a game with a play that feels impossible, only to look like a late-round pick for the remainder of his appearance. The inconsistency in Allen's play was supposed to be addressed by staying in school for another season, but that did not prove to be the case."

 

I couldn't agree more.  He should have stayed in school, too many QBs come out too early and dash their odds of success in the NFL.  But hey, if you know that you're going to get a 1st-20th overall contract, it's hardly a losing proposition as most people don't make that kind of money in a lifetime, eh.  

 

Anyway, here's that piece, and if you watch the videos you can't help but notice it's the same Allen now as it was at Wyoming.  He has next season to make a leap in performance, if not, time to start thinking of the next QB.  Problem with that is that McBeane must then go.  

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2018/futures-josh-allen

 

 

25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

You don’t see which offensive linemen from last season were better than the ones we have this season?

 

You don't name the all-pro cast of OL-men on the other teams.  

 

So I guess we're even.   

 

And BTW, everyone's been hammering our line, but I saw a time-to-throw stat a week or two ago and Allen's TTT was above average, well.  So say what we want, I'm not sure our OL play last season was as good as everyone remembers.  Woods was the oldest starting center in the entire league easily and far from hwhat he was in his prime, Glenn didn't play much, and nutjob also wasn't all that great.  

Edited December 30, 2018 by TaskersGhost

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Allen has to get this offense into the end-zone more. That’s why Tyrod isn’t here anymore and Allen has been worse than Tyrod. 

 

We get it, rookie and poor surrounding talent (based largely on the decisions McDermott and Beane have made) have slowed this offense down. Allen has not been good overall. 

[dakrider]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Allen has to get this offense into the end-zone more. That’s why Tyrod isn’t here anymore and Allen has been worse than Tyrod. 

 

We get it, rookie and poor surrounding talent (based largely on the decisions McDermott and Beane have made) have slowed this offense down. Allen has not been good overall. 

Allen has been the only thing the Bills have had on offense for the most part of these last 5 games.  Can't expect any rookie QB to carry a team like that and succeed.  

Even great QB's can't carry their team week after week.  Having the coaching staff tell Allen to do less, don't run and don't try so hard and just take the 3 yard dink pass is not the strategy thats going to win games.  

[Socal-805]

2 minutes ago, dakrider said:

Allen has been the only thing the Bills have had on offense for the most part of these last 5 games.  Can't expect any rookie QB to carry a team like that and succeed.  

Even great QB's can't carry their team week after week.  Having the coaching staff tell Allen to do less, don't run and don't try so hard and just take the 3 yard dink pass is not the strategy thats going to win games.  

 

Great.  He still can't throw and this is not likely to change much.  WISH it wasn't true...

 

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 minutes ago, dakrider said:

Allen has been the only thing the Bills have had on offense for the most part of these last 5 games.  Can't expect any rookie QB to carry a team like that and succeed.  

Even great QB's can't carry their team week after week.  Having the coaching staff tell Allen to do less, don't run and don't try so hard and just take the 3 yard dink pass is not the strategy thats going to win games.  

I agree with that. Coaching staff’s who try and change their QB playing style fail - see Robert Griffin III, Mike Vick. 

[billsfan1959]

49 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

That's exactly where I'm at. The ridiculous plays he's able to make combined with a league that caters to QB's have given me the slightest bit of hope. I use the Trubisky model quite a bit because I personally hated him as a prospect and am frankly a little surprised that he's been able to have some success. I still don't think he's particularly good, but he's effective enough. We all WANT Allen to succeed, but as you've clearly demonstrated, he'd be defying some serious statistical odds.

There are absolutely no statistics that are relevant to how good or how bad Josh Allen will be. None.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Socal-805 said:

 

Great.  He still can't throw and this is not likely to change much.  WISH it wasn't true...

 

 

Such ignorance around here