THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Bills Come Back, Hold on to Beat Lions

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, PUNT750 said:

 

THANK YOU for this post and reply to the original poster.  I have noticed in all his posts a little biased against our young HC.  He's doing great with very little real NFL talent and a pure rookie QB.  I admire your strength to speak up!  The OP ran a lot of people off several boards because of his reputation!  GO BILLS!

 

Wow.

 

Anyway, I'm a McDermott fan.   I have blasted him a few times, like about all the penalties his team has amassed.   He's all about discipline, and the penalties suggest something has been amiss.   I talk about his conservative approach to some things, but I don't criticize him for it.  I tend to agree with a conservative approach. 

 

I like the process.   I think he knows what he's doing. 

 

I like his defensive style.   It's fundamental and aggressive. 

 

So I don't get where you think I have a bias against McD.   

[T&C]

55 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Wow.

 

Anyway, I'm a McDermott fan.   I have blasted him a few times, like about all the penalties his team has amassed.   He's all about discipline, and the penalties suggest something has been amiss.   I talk about his conservative approach to some things, but I don't criticize him for it.  I tend to agree with a conservative approach. 

 

I like the process.   I think he knows what he's doing. 

 

I like his defensive style.   It's fundamental and aggressive. 

 

So I don't get where you think I have a bias against McD.   

So you know Shaw, Punt750 is Bluto. We already ran him off of the other board. 

[jlgarsh]

3 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree.  And Allen is just a rookie.   He has a lot to learn.   Actually, there's a part of me that wants McKEnzie, Jones and Foster to be the starting receivers next season just so Allen will work with the same receivers for an entire off-season and season.   I think that alone would show improvement over this season. 

 

In fact, I'd be astonished if the starting wideouts next season were those three.  Someone better will show up, in free agency or the draft.   

 

Others have commented over the past few weeks, and it fits in this discussion, about how it's hard to remember one great catch this season.   We're not seeing many out and out drops, but we aren't seeing great catches from any of these guys.   I expect there'll be a better pass catcher somewhere in the lineup. 

I like Foster and McKenzie a lot.  Feel like Zay might need a sports psychologist for his drops.  He has good games followed by brutal ones.  It's like after he drops one, he drops them all.  

[Shaw66]

8 hours ago, jlgarsh said:

I like Foster and McKenzie a lot.  Feel like Zay might need a sports psychologist for his drops.  He has good games followed by brutal ones.  It's like after he drops one, he drops them all.  

I've expressed my view before - most of the players on all NFL teams are average NFL players, with great size and athletic ability compared to us normal humans.  But among themselves, most of them don't stand out.  All three of those guys fit in that category so far as I can tell.  None of them is going to be a top-10 receiver, but one or two or all three will make it in the league and have positive careers for a few years.   That's how the NFL works.   

 

So you get a guy like Robert Woods or Chris Hogan who, when he gets to the right team with a good QB and a system he fits, does well.  McDermott, Daboll and Allen will be the ones, really, who determine whether those guys have careers in Buffalo.  

[Logic]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I've expressed my view before - most of the players on all NFL teams are average NFL players, with great size and athletic ability compared to us normal humans.  But among themselves, most of them don't stand out.  All three of those guys fit in that category so far as I can tell.  None of them is going to be a top-10 receiver, but one or two or all three will make it in the league and have positive careers for a few years.   That's how the NFL works.   

 

So you get a guy like Robert Woods or Chris Hogan who, when he gets to the right team with a good QB and a system he fits, does well.  McDermott, Daboll and Allen will be the ones, really, who determine whether those guys have careers in Buffalo.  

I agree with your overall point about the small talent disparity among NFL players. I disagree, however, that Foster will be "just a guy". Currently, he is averaging 87.6 yards per game. That would put him on a 16-game pace of 1,400 yards receiving. And he's an undrafted rookie at a position that historically takes time to adapt to the NFL!

I look at Foster and everything about him screams "#1 receiver". He was a five-star recruit coming out of high school. He played for Alabama. He is 6"2' and has elite deep speed. He runs crisp routes. He works hard to improve his craft. He has great chemistry with his quarterback. I ABSOLUTELY believe that Foster has what it takes to be a #1 receiver and a star in the league. 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Logic

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Logic said:

I agree with your overall point about the small talent disparity among NFL players. I disagree, however, that Foster will be "just a guy". Currently, he is averaging 87.6 yards per game. That would put him on a 16-game pace of 1,400 yards receiving. And he's an undrafted rookie at a position that historically takes time to adapt to the NFL!

I look at Foster and everything about him screams "#1 receiver". He was a five-star recruit coming out of high school. He played for Alabama. He is 6"2' and has elite deep speed. He runs crisp routes. He works hard to improve his craft. He has great chemistry with his quarterback. I ABSOLUTELY believe that Foster has what it takes to be a #1 receiver and a star in the league. 

You may be right, and I hope you are, but I doubt it.  

 

The guy was a star talent coming out of high school and got the very best possible coaching in college.   He spent his formative football years in the exact same environment Amari Cooper, and more or less the same environment as Julio Jones, but he couldn't produce anything even remotely comparable to either of them.  They were drafted fourth and sixth overall.   

 

Foster, with the same coaching and training, caught 14 passes in his best season at Alabama.  No pro football team thought he was worth spending even a 7th round pick on him.

 

In other words, with all the apparent talent that a Cooper or a Jones had, and with all the opportunities and coaching that those guys had, Foster was unable to accomplish anything that was on the same planet as those guys.   If he couldn't learn to be a standout receiver in five years at Alabama, I have trouble seeing what it is that's going to turn him into a star in the NFL.  

[Figster]

From my coach potato perspective Shaw I thought you guys did a great job and was actually surprised at how loud and fired up Bills/fans appeared to be in a meaningless game.  Josh Allen might have something to do with it.

 

  Well done fellas.

 

Another enjoyable read per the usual OP, much appreciated.

 

Stay safe through the holidays everyone.

[Logic]

12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You may be right, and I hope you are, but I doubt it.  

 

The guy was a star talent coming out of high school and got the very best possible coaching in college.   He spent his formative football years in the exact same environment Amari Cooper, and more or less the same environment as Julio Jones, but he couldn't produce anything even remotely comparable to either of them.  They were drafted fourth and sixth overall.   

 

Foster, with the same coaching and training, caught 14 passes in his best season at Alabama.  No pro football team thought he was worth spending even a 7th round pick on him.

 

In other words, with all the apparent talent that a Cooper or a Jones had, and with all the opportunities and coaching that those guys had, Foster was unable to accomplish anything that was on the same planet as those guys.   If he couldn't learn to be a standout receiver in five years at Alabama, I have trouble seeing what it is that's going to turn him into a star in the NFL.  

Fair enough, Shaw.

I think of Buddy Nix's old quote: "I don't care about the labor pains, just show me the baby". You're referencing the fact that Foster's college "Labor pains" didn't produce much of a "baby" at Alabama. I would argue, though, that what matters is what he's doing in the pros. So far, the "what's he doing in the pros" baby is looking pretty sharp. It's similar to Josh Allen in my mind. He didn't set the world on fire at Wyoming, but he's starting to show that he can play serious ball at the pro level. To me, what a guy does as a pro trumps whatever happened in college. I can't look at a guy who, since he's been starting for the Bills, has less yards than only TY Hilton and Amari Cooper, and not see a potential star...ESPECIALLY a guy who has been producing those results on a below average offense, with a sporadically accurate rookie QB.

Time will tell.

[Shaw66]

44 minutes ago, Logic said:

Fair enough, Shaw.

I think of Buddy Nix's old quote: "I don't care about the labor pains, just show me the baby". You're referencing the fact that Foster's college "Labor pains" didn't produce much of a "baby" at Alabama. I would argue, though, that what matters is what he's doing in the pros. So far, the "what's he doing in the pros" baby is looking pretty sharp. It's similar to Josh Allen in my mind. He didn't set the world on fire at Wyoming, but he's starting to show that he can play serious ball at the pro level. To me, what a guy does as a pro trumps whatever happened in college. I can't look at a guy who, since he's been starting for the Bills, has less yards than only TY Hilton and Amari Cooper, and not see a potential star...ESPECIALLY a guy who has been producing those results on a below average offense, with a sporadically accurate rookie QB.

Time will tell.

Agreed.

 

After I posted, I began wondering if Nick Saban has texted Daboll yet.  "Hey, Brian, what the hell?  You have this kid at Alabama and he catches 14 passes in an entire season.  Then you have him in Buffalo, and he catches 19 in five games!"

 

To which Daboll probably responded, "Well, Coach, if you'd said 'yes' seven years ago when Josh Allen asked if he could be your quarterback, Foster would have caught more than 14 passes for you."

59 minutes ago, Figster said:

From my coach potato perspective Shaw I thought you guys did a great job and was actually surprised at how loud and fired up Bills/fans appeared to be in a meaningless game.  Josh Allen might have something to do with it.

 

  Well done fellas.

 

Another enjoyable read per the usual OP, much appreciated.

 

Stay safe through the holidays everyone.

I've been developing my theory about crowd noise on TV vs. in the stadium.   I think TV sets up their crowd noise microphones some places around the lower level.   I sit in the second row in the upper deck.   Most of the empty seats were in the upper deck, so what I heard on Sunday was noticeably quieter than for sellouts.   But on the lower level, where closer to all the seats were full, the noise level that the tv microphones pick up probably is about the same as if it had been a sellout.   

 

I always wonder what the players hear.   Sometimes I think all the noise that's made in the upper deck just goes out and up and doesn't add a lot to the noise that the lower level makes.  That is, I think I should just shut up and let  the lower level people do all the work!

[GoBills808]

23 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 

That's a 70.1 passer rating, which puts him in EJ rookie territory.   

 

I think the passer rating is the best way to evaluate QBs statistically, flaws or not, and 70.1 ain't cutting it.   However, I think there are plenty of legitimate explanations for it.   I'm relying on what I'm seeing, and I think he's a star in the making.  

I agree with the overall point of the post but just to comment on passer rating: I don't think it's the best way to evaluate QBs, especially in today's NFL. What we're seeing w/ Allen right now with respect to passer rating is IMO the major flaw in the equation- namely, that it relies too heavily on completions and rewards TD/penalizes INTs to an extent that isn't really in accordance with the pass-heavy offensive landscape of today's game.

 

The two major issues I have with passer rating are 1- it places WAY too much emphasis on completions. Completions are effectively counted twice in the formula: once for completion% and then again for Yards/Attempt (since an incompletion is a zero for yards)...there's no real logic in my mind to having a completed pass for 0 yards (or even a completed pass for negative yards!) be recognized as a better outcome than an incompletion, let alone be rewarded by a factor of about 2. Passer rating gives a higher score to the QB who goes 40/40 for 100 yards than the guy who goes 20/40 for 325 yards, which is an extreme example but shows how ridiculously high they count completions in passer rating. And for 2- TDs too heavily rewarded/INTs are too heavily penalized considering the amount of passes the average NFL quarterback throws per game as opposed to back when passer rating was first calculated. INTs are penalized at a rate higher than TDs are rewarded, in yardage terms at about a 5/4 ratio, which is backwards IMO- TDs are more positive than INTs are negative (a TD is always worth 6 points, whereas an INT is always worth <6). Then you factor in the percentage of TDs that are simply byproducts of completions (either passes that reflect on variables OTHER than the QB like ones where the wideout made a great play, or 1 yard TD passes, or busted coverages/fluke plays etc) and the equation starts looking very arbitrary to the point of at best needing an update and at worst pretty meaningless in the modern game.

 

@BuffaloHokie13 has a really good system for rating QBs, I tend to prefer his combined with ANY/A because I think it's a way cleaner formula that captures QB quality evenly weighted for today.

[freddyjj]

On 12/17/2018 at 12:08 PM, Shaw66 said:

 

Getting back on the field said something different about the guy.   It’s not like he’s an unknown rookie in the fourth preseason game who desperately wants a chance to make one more play that might be the difference between making the roster and getting cut.   He’s put more than enough quality plays on tape this season, including against the Lions, to be at or near the top of the depth chart going into the 2019 off-season.   No, this wasn’t about that.  It was about heart and commitment to his coaches and his teammates.  This was about winning, because there was nothing more important to him.

 

Count me in as a newly-minted McKenzie fan.  And put another check mark in the plus column for Beane and McDermott, for fostering the kind of environment where guys with that kind of heart and commitment are driving the effort to get better.

Shaw66 - Strong post yet again, enjoy reading your stuff every week even when I disagree with some of it.  

 

The above quote is why I still give McBeane credit for their work to date... yes, even counting this year.  There are only 2 player left from the Marrone Tenure (Hughes and Kyle).  There are only 2 draftees from the 2013-2016 draft classes left on the roster: Shaq Lawson and John Miller.  Miller will likely be gone after this season.

 

So in less than 24 months this new management team tore down a mediocre team and started the building process for a new playoff ready team.   The Process is just that.  It meant finding grounded talented players who value playing over everything else the NFL brings them ($$, Fame, Women, Drugs, Nightlife).   Milano, Johnson, Teller,  Phillips are 2nd or 3rd day guys that fit this profile.  

 

The Facetime call with Milano in the winning locker room speaks volumes to the culture that McD has developed.  These guys play for each other and it really shows in their actions on the field and off it.  They are in tune with the coaching staff too.  Those that aren't or weren't are gone or soon will be.

 

The Bills have had some closely knit teams (Jauron era) during the drought, but there's something different happening at OBD now.  Josh, Tremaine and Tedavious are emerging as leaders on and off the field.

 

Here's hoping that $85mm in FA and 10 draft picks translates into more superior talent coupled with unequaled passion to play.  

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, freddyjj said:

Shaw66 - Strong post yet again, enjoy reading your stuff every week even when I disagree with some of it.  

 

The above quote is why I still give McBeane credit for their work to date... yes, even counting this year.  There are only 2 player left from the Marrone Tenure (Hughes and Kyle).  There are only 2 draftees from the 2013-2016 draft classes left on the roster: Shaq Lawson and John Miller.  Miller will likely be gone after this season.

 

So in less than 24 months this new management team tore down a mediocre team and started the building process for a new playoff ready team.   The Process is just that.  It meant finding grounded talented players who value playing over everything else the NFL brings them ($$, Fame, Women, Drugs, Nightlife).   Milano, Johnson, Teller,  Phillips are 2nd or 3rd day guys that fit this profile.  

 

The Facetime call with Milano in the winning locker room speaks volumes to the culture that McD has developed.  These guys play for each other and it really shows in their actions on the field and off it.  They are in tune with the coaching staff too.  Those that aren't or weren't are gone or soon will be.

 

The Bills have had some closely knit teams (Jauron era) during the drought, but there's something different happening at OBD now.  Josh, Tremaine and Tedavious are emerging as leaders on and off the field.

 

Here's hoping that $85mm in FA and 10 draft picks translates into more superior talent coupled with unequaled passion to play.  

Thanks, Freddy - That's a great post.  

 

I'm expecting Josh and Tremaine to be 10-20% better next season, as they learn more and as Tremaine puts on some muscle.   

 

This will be an off-season unlike any in recent memory.  No significant free agent losses (Lorenzo and Kyle are the only big names, and they'll either retire or stay, I would think, plus J. Phillips, Miller, Groy and Mills), some significant free agent additions, and probably as many as a half dozen rookies who will see significant minutes.   

[Stank_Nasty]

51 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks, Freddy - That's a great post.  

 

I'm expecting Josh and Tremaine to be 10-20% better next season, as they learn more and as Tremaine puts on some muscle.   

 

This will be an off-season unlike any in recent memory.  No significant free agent losses (Lorenzo and Kyle are the only big names, and they'll either retire or stay, I would think, plus J. Phillips, Miller, Groy and Mills), some significant free agent additions, and probably as many as a half dozen rookies who will see significant minutes.   

I think phillips needs to be a serious priority whether meatball retires or not...… but ESPECIALLY if he retires.

 

 

also phillips makes sundays at the stadium way more fun! 

Edited December 18, 2018 by Stank_Nasty

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

I think phillips needs to be a serious priority whether meatball retires or not...… but ESPECIALLY if he retires.

 

 

also phillips makes sundays at the stadium way more fun! 

I agree.  Phillips is entertaining.  I worry he's a little on the edge, but it seems he's a fit with McD.  

 

Point is, even if Philliips goes, in terms of talent, the Bills will be net winners by a lot in 2018, not net losers.  

[billspro]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree.  Phillips is entertaining.  I worry he's a little on the edge, but it seems he's a fit with McD.  

 

Point is, even if Philliips goes, in terms of talent, the Bills will be net winners by a lot in 2018, not net losers.  

 

This free agency may rival the 2003 season where we got Spikes, Adams, Posey, Milloy, and traded for Bledsoe.

[Chandler#81]

Nice article, I just disagree on many topics. IMO, McKensie is just to small and light to secure the football with confidence. I’ll be surprised if he makes next years’ club. The crowd came across very loud over the tv, especially given all the Lions fans in attendance. Getting sacked out of FG range is a definite rookie mistake? Every veteran QB suffers this from time to time, especially if he thinks he can outrun a chasing DLman. Foster is a weak -at best- router runner. Was in college and looked terrible in Preseason. He’s fast, but that’s it. It’ll have to do for now.

[rockpile]

Shaw66, I always look for threads you start because you put some thought into what you want to say, accept opinions different from yours without tossing barbs, and seem to set the tone for a rational conversation that rises above name calling. 

 

Regarding the running game, I think the repetitive running tightened up the defensive "wall" and relaxed the defensive backs just a bit, which set up a few nice passing plays. I had to miss the second half due to family commitments and a defective DVR, but the game ended the way I wanted. 

 

I am also a Josh Allen fan and hope he continues to grow into a QB we can be proud to have on our team. 

 

I really hope the Bills can make Brady look old Sunday. A win would be my Christmas gift!  

 

Rockpile

[Shaw66]

26 minutes ago, rockpile said:

Shaw66, I always look for threads you start because you put some thought into what you want to say, accept opinions different from yours without tossing barbs, and seem to set the tone for a rational conversation that rises above name calling. 

 

Regarding the running game, I think the repetitive running tightened up the defensive "wall" and relaxed the defensive backs just a bit, which set up a few nice passing plays. I had to miss the second half due to family commitments and a defective DVR, but the game ended the way I wanted. 

 

I am also a Josh Allen fan and hope he continues to grow into a QB we can be proud to have on our team. 

 

I really hope the Bills can make Brady look old Sunday. A win would be my Christmas gift!  

 

Rockpile

Thanks.  I have to admit, it makes me feel good that a lot of posters come to these threads with interesting things to say.  What I say in the OP is usually less important than the points made in the discussion that follows. 

[Just Joshin']

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  I have to admit, it makes me feel good that a lot of posters come to these threads with interesting things to say.  What I say in the OP is usually less important than the points made in the discussion that follows. 

You are being gracious - look forward to your posts and thanks for the time commitment.

[rockpile]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks.  I have to admit, it makes me feel good that a lot of posters come to these threads with interesting things to say.  What I say in the OP is usually less important than the points made in the discussion that follows. 

 

You are too modest, but either way, my point is the same. The threads are interesting AND promote conversation because they are somewhat open ended, which promotes debate.