CJ Beathard only has 3 more career starts than Josh Allen

[H2o]

Shanahan has gotten the most out of every QB he has had at his disposal. You can look at the track record with Griffin, Cousins, Ryan, Garapolo, and Beathard. Allen doesn't have that on his side. 

[Bangarang]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

He is progressing. 

 

Where? What evidence is there that he is actually progressing?

[jrober38]

9 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Where? What evidence is there that he is actually progressing?

 

There hasn't been any.

 

He's bailing out of the pocket faster and faster each game. He's not trusting his protection, and can't seem to get over his habit to run backwards from defenders which results in him walking into sacks (like the one Watt had on Sunday). 

 

On 3rd downs he rarely looks like he's even trying to read the defense. He's just dropping back, and looking at the linebackers trying to figure out how he can run for a 1st down.

 

As is the case with pretty much every project QB who "fixes" their issues during the draft process, he's slowly but surely reverting back to the guy he was at Wyoming who can't consistently operate from the pocket and has hardly any ability to read a defense. 

Edited October 16, 2018 by jrober38

[oldmanfan]

24 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

Where? What evidence is there that he is actually progressing?

From yesterday when I was asked the same question.  I went back and looked at each passing play of the first half.

 

Earlier I was asked to explain why I thought Allen showed progress today vs.  the Packers, his worst game.  So I've gone through passing plays from the game to see how I think he did.  My focus was how accurate he was and whether I felt he was making quicker decisions pre-snapand where to go with the ball. Was he decisive, did he make his read and get the ball out.  Things like that.  With that said,  here we go.  And I would love to have some feedback and discussion vs.  the "he sucks" kind of stuff.

 

1st quarter,

 

Drive 1

 1.  Horrible throw to Clay.  Not even close.  Just awful.

2.  Throw to McCoy.  Hung in pocket for a good amount of time, good escape, risky pass back across but his arm strength is an asset there

3.  2nd pass to Clay.  Decisive read and very accurate.

4.  Swing to Clay.  Again decisive, pass was a little low

5.  Benjamin:  long pass into double coverage. Threw it long.  Better long than short into the double coverage- I think he wanted to put it up high for Benjamin to go get but was too long

6.  Over the middle to Zay.  I think if Zay didn't get tackled it's completed.  Again made his read quickly and got the ball out.

 

Second Drive

 

1.  Went through progression to two guys, saw nothing, got yardage scrambling up the middle

2.  Sacked.  Looked at his first read and rush was getting to him.  Thought he might have had more time to maybe get to a second read but I didn't see a safety valve.  But did not try to spin out backwards or make an ill conceived desperation throw like against the Pack

 

Third Drive

 

1.  Quick out to Ray Ray.  Decisive and on target.  Gets criticized for not being accurate on short throws but was right on the money.

2.  Bullet to Clay.  Again decisive and right on target, fit between two defenders.

3.  Rushed by Watt.  Going backward threw to sideline for no gain.  Showed his arm strength but not a great decision, should have just thrown it away.

4.  Short pass to Clay.  Went through progression to second read.  Short no gain.  Not much to say.

5.  Sideline to James.  Low and outside where only Zay could get it.  Placement was the right idea but could have been a bit higher.  May also been a timing thing with Zay not getting to the spot quicker.

 

Fourth Drive.

 

1.  Quick out to Benjamin.  Again a decisive read and on target throw.

2.  Runs for first down but holding negated play.  Thought he locked into his first read too long.

3.  Sack by Watt.  Kept his head up looking for an open guy, eyes were not down looking for rushers as he's done sometimes.  Needed to sense it more and throw the ball away.

 

Fifth Drive:  the swing to Shady to close the half.  Nothing remarkable either way.

 

So looking at this half, when I say I saw improvement, I saw him being more decisive with the ball, which to me means his pre-snap thought process was improved.  He was generally more accurate, and while he should be with short throws that is one of the criticisms he gets.

 

Need to do the third quarter but have to make the birthday dinner for the daughter.  Would like to get others' thoughts.

[Mark Vader]

4 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Which should show you just how far behind the Bills actually are. 

 

The 49ers have a young QB they drafted in the 3rd round that is currently miles ahead of where the Bills 7th overall pick is -- and the 49ers still made a move to get even better at the position. 

Beathard has a full year of learning in the NFL ahead of Allen. That is considerable.

 

As for the 49'ers attempting to get better at the position.....They gave a five year $137.5 million contract with over $70 million guaranteed to a quarterback who has never played an entire season of NFL football.

 

We shall see how that works out.

[Bangarang]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

From yesterday when I was asked the same question.  I went back and looked at each passing play of the first half.

 

Earlier I was asked to explain why I thought Allen showed progress today vs.  the Packers, his worst game.  So I've gone through passing plays from the game to see how I think he did.  My focus was how accurate he was and whether I felt he was making quicker decisions pre-snapand where to go with the ball. Was he decisive, did he make his read and get the ball out.  Things like that.  With that said,  here we go.  And I would love to have some feedback and discussion vs.  the "he sucks" kind of stuff.

 

1st quarter,

 

Drive 1

 1.  Horrible throw to Clay.  Not even close.  Just awful.

2.  Throw to McCoy.  Hung in pocket for a good amount of time, good escape, risky pass back across but his arm strength is an asset there

3.  2nd pass to Clay.  Decisive read and very accurate.

4.  Swing to Clay.  Again decisive, pass was a little low

5.  Benjamin:  long pass into double coverage. Threw it long.  Better long than short into the double coverage- I think he wanted to put it up high for Benjamin to go get but was too long

6.  Over the middle to Zay.  I think if Zay didn't get tackled it's completed.  Again made his read quickly and got the ball out.

 

Second Drive

 

1.  Went through progression to two guys, saw nothing, got yardage scrambling up the middle

2.  Sacked.  Looked at his first read and rush was getting to him.  Thought he might have had more time to maybe get to a second read but I didn't see a safety valve.  But did not try to spin out backwards or make an ill conceived desperation throw like against the Pack

 

Third Drive

 

1.  Quick out to Ray Ray.  Decisive and on target.  Gets criticized for not being accurate on short throws but was right on the money.

2.  Bullet to Clay.  Again decisive and right on target, fit between two defenders.

3.  Rushed by Watt.  Going backward threw to sideline for no gain.  Showed his arm strength but not a great decision, should have just thrown it away.

4.  Short pass to Clay.  Went through progression to second read.  Short no gain.  Not much to say.

5.  Sideline to James.  Low and outside where only Zay could get it.  Placement was the right idea but could have been a bit higher.  May also been a timing thing with Zay not getting to the spot quicker.

 

Fourth Drive.

 

1.  Quick out to Benjamin.  Again a decisive read and on target throw.

2.  Runs for first down but holding negated play.  Thought he locked into his first read too long.

3.  Sack by Watt.  Kept his head up looking for an open guy, eyes were not down looking for rushers as he's done sometimes.  Needed to sense it more and throw the ball away.

 

Fifth Drive:  the swing to Shady to close the half.  Nothing remarkable either way.

 

So looking at this half, when I say I saw improvement, I saw him being more decisive with the ball, which to me means his pre-snap thought process was improved.  He was generally more accurate, and while he should be with short throws that is one of the criticisms he gets.

 

Need to do the third quarter but have to make the birthday dinner for the daughter.  Would like to get others' thoughts.

 

I think this method is flawed. I wouldn’t call it progress by comparing his worst game to a game where he was still bad but wasn’t a total tire fire. 

 

I see him still struggling with the same things now as when he first started. 

 

Would you say he’s regressing as a QB because he played significantly worse the week after the Vikings? 

[DisplacedBillsFan]

14 hours ago, jrober38 said:

Beathard looks great. 

 

He's got minimal talent but he knows how to play the game. 

That's the thing about immense amounts of raw talent. It gets you through youth sports, high school, and even college, making you look like a star. Then, when you get to the pros you have to actually learn how to play the game. I think this is a factor in what we are seeing with Allen. There are players who dominate the SEC on talent alone, so for Allen to do well in the Mountain West on pure skill and talent is not that surprising. The good news is, I do not think Allen is 100% raw talent who refuses to study, put in the work, or someone who cannot learn to play the game and use what he has at the NFL level (e.g. JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Charles Rogers, Dion Jordan, and others). It is going to take time, but I think he has both the intelligence and work ethic to, eventually, be able to utilize his talent at this level.

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I think this method is flawed. I wouldn’t call it progress by comparing his worst game to a game where he was still bad but wasn’t a total tire fire. 

 

I see him still struggling with the same things now as when he first started. 

 

Would you say he’s regressing as a QB because he played significantly worse the week after the Vikings? 

Of course you think it's flawed.  You have confirmation bias, I think.

 

When I watched the  game the first time I did so on DVR because I was tied up Sunday afternoon.  So I focused my attention on Allen, just to see how he'd look.  last night then after all the hullabaloo about how he's terrible, not progressing, etc., I went back and slow motioned through these plays.  I think if you objectively look at the plays on Sunday it is obvious he's done better than his bad game against the Pack.  He was much more decisive with the ball.  That may be because he's only getting one or two reads per play, but the ball was coming out quicker to be sure.  The other thing was accuracy especially on short throws and while his first pass was God awful there really wasn't any other throws that you could say were way off target.

 

The one throw he made that I thought was risky was when he tried to hit Zay in the corner of the end zone, and that ball could have been intercepted.  Shouldn't have thrown that, but it brings up another point that people make, which I think is flawed.  The idea that he has guys open all the time and doesn't see them.  That paly everyone was blanketed, and I saw a couple others where guys just weren't open.

 

Do like I did, go back and watch each play.  Watch objectively.

[Epstein's Mother]

14 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

Only 3 more career starts.

 

CJ (1-7) has only 3 more career starts than Allen (2-3) and 1 less career win.

[LSHMEAB]

14 hours ago, twoandfourteen said:

 

Look at his stats from his rookie year. 

 

That is what really is troubling.

 

CJB was competent out of the box. Meanwhile, JA has a lot of trouble executing a basic NFL passing play. 

 

Darnold, Mayfield, Rosen -- all of them have at least exhibited the ability to produce respectable passing production at this early stage in their careers. 200 yards seems impossible right now for Josh Allen.

 

 

Yeah, but Allen was a "project" meaning he was supposed to suck for several years before turning the corner and becoming an all time great. 

 

You clearly don't understand the process.

[Bangarang]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Of course you think it's flawed.  You have confirmation bias, I think.

 

I don’t think you know what confirmation bias is if that’s what you’re getting from reading my post.

 

Saying a player is progressing and using the example you used is flawed. I would say the same thing if someone used your logic to show why he is regressing as a QB. 

[uticaclub]

Allen had bust written all over him & we surround him with no talent and subpar offensive coaching. But, “culture”

[BillsfanAZ]

If CJB was so awesome, why did they trade for Jimmy G? So last season the 49ers had Garcon, Goodwin, Celek, Kittle, Hyde, and Juszczyk. All of them were productive in catching passes. Allen was not even supposed to be playing right now. If you want to blame the Bills for not having a better back up plan then fine but picking apart Allen because he struggles doesnt make sense. Everyone knew Allen needed development but when he is forced to play, everyone forgets about that and wants to see big passing yards. 

[jrober38]

21 minutes ago, DisplacedBillsFan said:

That's the thing about immense amounts of raw talent. It gets you through youth sports, high school, and even college, making you look like a star. Then, when you get to the pros you have to actually learn how to play the game. I think this is a factor in what we are seeing with Allen. There are players who dominate the SEC on talent alone, so for Allen to do well in the Mountain West on pure skill and talent is not that surprising. The good news is, I do not think Allen is 100% raw talent who refuses to study, put in the work, or someone who cannot learn to play the game and use what he has at the NFL level (e.g. JaMarcus Russell, Vince Young, Charles Rogers, Dion Jordan, and others). It is going to take time, but I think he has both the intelligence and work ethic to, eventually, be able to utilize his talent at this level.

 

My concern is that he's never been a star at any level of football. 

He was an unrecruited high school player, a mediocre JUCO QB, and a middle of the road QB in the Mountain West Conference.

 

As for work ethic, I think it's overrated at the NFL level because 99% of the QBs in the NFL have a great work ethic. Tim Tebow worked harder than anyone and he was one of the worst QBs to start in the NFL over the past 10 years. 

 

It's one thing to have talent, and it's another to have skill. Allen has tons of talent, but he's not skilled. He can throw a football 80 yards, but he can't consistently complete 5 yard passes for a whole host of reasons.

 

Maybe he'll work out. I don't think he will and that's based off the fact that all the guys drafted with Josh Allen's type of skill set and set of flaws haven't worked out in the NFL over the past 20 years, combined with the awful play I've witnessed from him as our QB so far. 

Edited October 16, 2018 by jrober38

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

some of you guys a being SUPER TROLLS 

 

C.J. Beathard was 1-4 last season 

54.9 % comp

4 TD and 6 INT

19 sacks

 

Now he's a stud?   SMH.   

Edited October 16, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[BuffaloHokie13]

I do like me some CJ Beathard.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

5 minutes ago, BillsfanAZ said:

If CJB was so awesome, why did they trade for Jimmy G? So last season the 49ers had Garcon, Goodwin, Celek, Kittle, Hyde, and Juszczyk. All of them were productive in catching passes. Allen was not even supposed to be playing right now. If you want to blame the Bills for not having a better back up plan then fine but picking apart Allen because he struggles doesnt make sense. Everyone knew Allen needed development but when he is forced to play, everyone forgets about that and wants to see big passing yards. 

Shhhh  You don't confuse them with facts 

[Bangarang]

9 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

My concern is that he's never been a star at any level of football. 

He was an unrecruited high school player, a mediocre JUCO QB, and a middle of the road QB in the Mountain West Conference.

 

As for work ethic, I think it's overrated at the NFL level because 99% of the QBs in the NFL have a great work ethic. Tim Tebow worked harder than anyone and he was one of the worst QBs to start in the NFL over the past 10 years. 

 

It's one thing to have talent, and it's another to have skill. Allen has tons of talent, but he's not skilled. He can throw a football 80 yards, but he can't consistently complete 5 yard passes for a whole host of reasons.

 

Maybe he'll work out. I don't think he will and that's based off the fact that all the guys drafted with Josh Allen's type of skill set and set of flaws haven't worked out in the NFL over the past 20 years, combined with the awful play I've witnessed from him as our QB so far. 

 

He looks amazing on paper and in shorts as a prospect. Prototypical size, arm strength and athleticism. All the good stuff people drool over.

 

People love using the typical buzz words of “raw” and “high ceiling” which basically just means “he sucks but if the stars align and everything goes perfectly he might be really good”. The problem is that asking for that is unlikely even under the most ideal circumstances. I can’t imagine how unlikely it is when you surround him with such little talent at the skill positions and on the coaching staff.

 

McD and BB invested a lot to get him and are setting him up to fail. It’s probably what will get them fired.

Edited October 16, 2018 by Bangarang

[jrober38]

8 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

He looks amazing on paper and in shorts as a prospect. Prototypical size, arm strength and athleticism. 

 

People love using the typical buzz words of “raw” and “high ceiling” which basically just means “he sucks but if the stars align and everything goes perfectly he might be really good”. The problem is that asking for that is unlikely even the most ideal circumstances. I can’t imagine how unlikely it is when you surrounds him with such little talent at the skill positions and on the coaching staff.

 

McD and BB invested a lot to get him and are setting him up to fail. It’s probably what will get them fired.

 

Agreed.

 

When a QB is "raw", it just means that they're terrible on tape but have really good measureables. None of these guys ever go onto become quality NFL QBs.

 

EJ Manuel, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman, Akili Smith, Vince Young, Paxton Lynch, Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker, etc. They were all "raw" QBs who were complete busts as 1st round picks.

 

The only projects who have had success were Joe Flacco coming out of Div 3, who had immediate success, and Pat Mahomes, who threw for a billion yards in college but needed to learn to operate out of a structured offense. I don't think Allen is comparable to either of them.

 

I think Allen's closest comps are Blaine Gabbert and Paxton Lynch. Big, strong, athletic QBs who can run around, who never put it all together in college and were colossal busts in the NFL.

 

EDIT

 

Pro days are the stupidest thing going. Every year I ask why anyone on earth gives a crap about watching a QB throw scripted throws in the most controlled environment you could possibly imagine.

 

What happens on an NFL field is pure chaos. It's the exact opposite of what happens at a pro day. There are 22 guys, all doing something different, and each of them plays a part in the success or failure of any given play.

 

I will never understand how watching a guy throw rehearsed passes at a pro day in shorts and a t shirt has any impact whatsoever on how that QB will perform when under live fire on a real NFL field. 

Edited October 16, 2018 by jrober38

[oldmanfan]

21 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

 

I don’t think you know what confirmation bias is if that’s what you’re getting from reading my post.

 

Saying a player is progressing and using the example you used is flawed. I would say the same thing if someone used your logic to show why he is regressing as a QB. 

How is my example flawed?  Please, go back like I did and watch the plays.  Then if you think it's flawed, explain why.