Rocky Landing Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 1 hour ago, BurpleBull said: The discussion was never about... 51 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Again, we can always... You guys should take a breather for a couple days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurpleBull Posted August 7, 2018 Author Share Posted August 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said: You guys should take a breather for a couple days... Lol. Or an hour...an hour would do some good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted August 7, 2018 Share Posted August 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said: You guys should take a breather for a couple days... If you notice, I respond but haven’t initiated anything in this thread in forever. I guess that we can take it to PM if it needs to continue. As far as I’m concerned the thread can die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 14 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: The reality is that the Bills have 2 bad QBs and a young guy with a high ceiling and low floor. just curious. What have you seen in AJ's play on the field that makes you think he is a "bad QB"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurpleBull Posted August 8, 2018 Author Share Posted August 8, 2018 (edited) 22 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: Again, we can always cherry pick the top guys. That’s the point!! For every Tom Brady there are 102 Keith Wennings. We sure say “well look at Tom Brady” more than we do “well look at Keith Wenning.” Statistically, these guys are WAY more likely to be Wenning than they are to even be Gradkowski. Yes, we are talking about opening day starters. I think it is reasonable that any of the 3 could get that job. That doesn’t make the other 2 good. You asked “how do you know they aren’t good?” I guess that I should have responded with “how do you know that they are good?” The reality is that we don’t either way but they are way more likely to fail than succeed. There are mounds of evidence to support this. Brady is merely used as a QB example of how a prospect can pan out in spite of where drafted, he just so happens to be the ultimate example of that. I also use Matt Milano as a case. Unlike Brady, he is not considered a top player currently, though highly praised. How do you explain his falling to the 163rd selection? What was his reason for being passed on 162 times despite his ability? Edited August 8, 2018 by BurpleBull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 41 minutes ago, BurpleBull said: Brady is merely used as a QB example of how a prospect can pan out in spite of where drafted, he just so happens to be the ultimate example of that. I also use Matt Milano as a case. Unlike Brady, he is not considered a top player currently, though highly praised. How do you explain his falling to the 163rd selection? What was his reason for being passed on 162 times in spite of his ability? There are way more position players, drafted late, that succeed than QBs. That’s apples and oranges. 6 hours ago, reddogblitz said: just curious. What have you seen in AJ's play on the field that makes you think he is a "bad QB"? He wasn’t good when he played and he has limited ability. He has a chance to be an okay game manager and a decent backup but he isn’t an NFL starting caliber QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 18 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: Of the 102 guys drafted between rounds 5-7 from 2001-now Tyrod Taylor is the top QB and Fitz is next. I don’t know why it is reasonable to expect BOTH of these guys to surpass that level of play? There is a less than 1% chance that they will be better QBs than Tyrod who we are all in agreement wasn’t the long term answer. We came to that conclusion on Fitz a few years earlier. Everytime we do this hamster wheel I ask myself if I am the crazy one? Why do people always believe that their guy will be in the top .98%? That’s not realistic. Bruce Gradkowski is in the top 7% of guys drafted in those rounds. The stats say that there is a 93% chance that they won’t achieve that level of success!! It’s baffling that I am the one that has to support the argument when there is a 93% chance that they won’t be Gradkowski. Why are they different from the overwhelming majority of their peers? The odds and stats so far wouldn’t support that. Few people believe that McCarron or Peterman are franchise qbs. That discussion needs to be placed in the garbage can in the front of the house that will soon be picked up by the noisy and stinking garbage truck. That's not what the McCarron vs Peterman discussion is really about. It is about which one of these two earnest game managers will be the starting qb when the season begins until Josh Allen is ready to play as a starter. As a fan the more intriguing issue is how many games will be played before the HC crosses the rubicon and puts in the strapping rookie qb. As far as I am concerned both McCarron and Peterman would be acceptable backups. Which one would be preferred? I don't give a dam! This qb scenario is the standard highly drafted qb scenario that takes place almost every year. What makes this issue more compelling than usual is that four teams (Cleveland, NY Jets and Arizona) are undergoing the same situation this year. Kirby, you hear the word Peterman and it triggers a visceral reaction from you. Let it go! Whenever I mention Logan Thomas to Gunner it also triggers a spleen busting reaction from him. Don't worry about what is happening in the distant perimeter. The real issue is all about Josh Allen and where he is at. Everything else about the qb issue is a side issue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurpleBull Posted August 8, 2018 Author Share Posted August 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said: There are way more position players, drafted late, that succeed than QBs. That’s apples and oranges. He wasn’t good when he played and he has limited ability. He has a chance to be an okay game manager and a decent backup but he isn’t an NFL starting caliber QB. So this is your answer in explaining away Milano's production and Peterman's potential production as a prospect drafted in the same round. While, 'there's a reason he was passed on 190 times' is your way of defining Peterman. There are also less thought of position players that are drafted late, who end up excelling and producing at a higher level than more highly touted position players drafted in much earlier rounds. Such as Chargers' DB, Desmond King (151st overall), who I also hoped would be drafted along with Peterman (171st overall) in 2017. I understand you have your percentages and list of late round QB success rates as support in your stance, but let's not act as though names won't be added to that list of QB's who found success, despite being drafted in later rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 How faith and competitive fire drive Nathan Peterman to achieve his ultimate goal Backed by family Built by family He heard you Inner peace and competitive fire 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 20 minutes ago, BurpleBull said: So this is your answer in explaining away Milano's production and Peterman's potential production as a prospect drafted in the same round. While, 'there's a reason he was passed on 190 times' is your way of defining Peterman. There are also less thought of position players that are drafted late, who end up excelling and producing at a higher level than more highly touted position players drafted in much earlier rounds. Such as Chargers' DB, Desmond King (151st overall), who I also hoped would be drafted along with Peterman (171st overall) in 2017. I understand you have your percentages and list of late round QB success rates as support in your stance, but let's not act as though names won't be added to that list of QB's who found success, despite being drafted in later rounds. Again, we go round and round. You are even agreeing with my point in this post. A far greater percentage of late round players at positions other than QB succeed. I haven’t looked through all of them by I’d say, with confidence, that they are 3 or 4 times more likely to succeed than a late round QB. We agree there. Your support for late round QBs succeeding is basically “we know it will happen.” I listed the last 102 QBs (no other position) taken between rounds 5-7 as my support. Those guys are what they are, lottery tickets. There is no reason to expect to win the lottery. If it happens, great but it isn’t the greatest retirement strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Again, we go round and round. You are even agreeing with my point in this post. A far greater percentage of late round players at positions other than QB succeed. I haven’t looked through all of them by I’d say, with confidence, that they are 3 or 4 times more likely to succeed than a late round QB. We agree there. Your support for late round QBs succeeding is basically “we know it will happen.” I listed the last 102 QBs (no other position) taken between rounds 5-7 as my support. Those guys are what they are, lottery tickets. There is no reason to expect to win the lottery. If it happens, great but it isn’t the greatest retirement strategy. I'm getting you a Christmas present. Let me know your size and if you want a home/away/...or even throwback/red alternate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: I'm getting you a Christmas present. Let me know your size and if you want a home/away/...or even throwback/red alternate. Save some money and wait a couple weeks until he's not on the roster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 2 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said: I'm getting you a Christmas present. Let me know your size and if you want a home/away/...or even throwback/red alternate. Perfect, it will go great in my jersey collection of lovable underdogs. I will wear it proudly just like I wear my Tuel, Jasper, Reilly, Hogan and 11 Fred Jackson jerseys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookylookyherecomescookie Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: There are way more position players, drafted late, that succeed than QBs. I believe you're right. Why do you think that is? Is it due to the overwhelming importance of the position and that more time and effort is put into scouting the qbs, so pre-draft evaluation may be more accurate for that position than others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: Save some money and wait a couple weeks until he's not on the roster. I think they keep all 3 QB's. I didn't think that before camp started, I thought Peterman might be the odd man out but he's battling. He's not going down without a fight! 10 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said: Perfect, it will go great in my jersey collection of lovable underdogs. I will wear it proudly just like I wear my Tuel, Jasper, Reilly, Hogan and 11 Fred Jackson jerseys. If you can find me a John DiGiorgio jersey...I'll proudly wear it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Augie Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said: I think they keep all 3 QB's. I didn't think that before camp started, I thought Peterman might be the odd man out but he's battling. He's not going down without a fight! I think they keep all three, mostly to avoid being in a situation where they HAVE TO put Allen in before they would like. It seems like their plan is firm and is a cautious one. I’m good with that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 Just now, Augie said: I think they keep all three, mostly to avoid being in a situation where they HAVE TO put Allen in before they would like. It seems like their plan is firm and is a cautious one. I’m good with that. I'm good with this plan too. You traded up for the guy, be patient with him. The only reason I would put him in this year is if McCaron/Peterman are just bad in the regular season and your playoff hopes are out the door by early November. Hopefully one of the vets, I lean towards McCaron, can just be solid and keep us competitive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 22 minutes ago, lookylookyherecomescookie said: I believe you're right. Why do you think that is? Is it due to the overwhelming importance of the position and that more time and effort is put into scouting the qbs, so pre-draft evaluation may be more accurate for that position than others? I think that is a big part of it. I’d venture to say that the transition from playing CB (for example) in the SEC to the NFL is a smaller transition. You are playing man-to-man with NFL caliber receivers. The scouts have a pretty good idea how those skills will translate. The QB is dependent on so many other factors that are tough to judge. What were his progressions? How good is his line? How good are his pass catchers? How good is his playcaller? That is without even mentioning the physical tools. He needs all of those things (and then some) to be working to even get a fair evaluation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said: There are way more position players, drafted late, that succeed than QBs. That’s apples and oranges. He wasn’t good when he played and he has limited ability. He has a chance to be an okay game manager and a decent backup but he isn’t an NFL starting caliber QB. i got that. Question is the same. What exactly did he do to show he's not a "good QB" besides "he wasn't good". Was it a 3-1 TD to Int ratio? Was it the 2 National Championships? Enlighten me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted August 8, 2018 Share Posted August 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, reddogblitz said: i got that. Question is the same. What exactly did he do to show he's not a "good QB" besides "he wasn't good". Was it a 3-1 TD to Int ratio? Was it the 2 National Championships? Enlighten me. Look no further than the Bengals offense with Dalton vs. McCarron. It was night and day. He has won a lot but he has played with TONS of talent. No team has won BECAUSE of AJ McCarron they have won WITH AJ McCarron. That’s not a knock. He’s a decent game manager and has a place in the league. He’s a good number 2 but not a starting caliber QB. That’s why he got $5M when Josh McCown got $10M. He’s a limited athlete with limited arm talent. He will be in the league for a long time but he’s not a number 1. The league spoke pretty loudly on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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