Accuracy vs. precision

[oldmanfan]

There's been a lot of talk about the accuracy (or lack of) with our first round QB. But the entire concept of accuracy is misunderstood by many.  Some claim that his percentage completion rate should not be used as a measure of accuracy, in that he my be off target but his receivers still make the catch.

 

This is a classic example of mistaking accuracy for precision.  Statistically, accuracy is how close you come to hitting a specific value.  Precision is how often you can repeat a specific value, even if that value is not close to the expected value.  Classically the difference between the two is shown with a dartboard picture:

 

 

So if you look at the high accuracy, low precision picture, that might be the kind of QB that works well in the NFL, but needs his WRs to make catches when the ball is close to them.  The low accuracy, high precision guys are the ones you want to avoid, as they might be able to hit a specific spot every time, but the pot isn't anywhere near the receiver.  and of course, the guys who are both very precise and very accurate at ideal.

 

From what I've read about Allen, he is accurate, but needs to work on precision.  I can live with that vs. being precise but not accurate.

[Sky Diver]

I think that some people look at his completion percentage and make inferences from it that aren't correct.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I wish accuracy was my problem with Allen. He misses some throws but it's not a major issue for me. 

[GG]

3 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

I wish accuracy was my problem with Allen. He misses some throws but it's not a major issue for me. 

 

 Same here.  The vast majority of his passes were right on target.  I think decision-making in the pocket is his biggest issue by far.

[napmaster]

26 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

 The low accuracy, high precision guys are the ones you want to avoid, as they might be able to hit a specific spot every time, but the pot isn't anywhere near the receiver. 

 

This is a blanket statement which needs to be broken down and it's where the scouts make their money.  If the inaccuracy is deemed to be caused by a correctable flaw in mechanics,  then the low accuracy, high precision guy should not be dismissed.  The positive is the repeatability in location, and the location itself may or may not be correctable.

[bmur66]

So we need to send Josh to a gunsmith?

[Juice_32]

30 minutes ago, GG said:

 

 Same here.  The vast majority of his passes were right on target.  I think decision-making in the pocket is his biggest issue by far.

 

What pocket? Watch the full game videos. The guy was running for his life, not by choice. Watch the senior bowl tape. With a pocket he did just fine. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

17 minutes ago, Juice_32 said:

 

What pocket? Watch the full game videos. The guy was running for his life, not by choice. Watch the senior bowl tape. With a pocket he did just fine. 

His supporting cast was bad, I just hate making that excuse. 

[Sky Diver]

56 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

I wish accuracy was my problem with Allen. He misses some throws but it's not a major issue for me. 

 

Every QB misses some throws. What are your major issues?

[K-9]

Ball placement has always equaled accuracy. 

28 minutes ago, bmur66 said:

So we need to send Josh to a gunsmith?

Yes. And teach him to aim for center mass. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, Sky Diver said:

 

Every QB misses some throws. What are your major issues?

Anticipation and timing. But his biggest supporters like Jordan Palmer blame that on the WR's. 

[Juice_32]

Just now, TheTruthHurts said:

His supporting cast was bad, I just hate making that excuse. 

 

I get it, but how can you have pocket presence without a pocket? It's sort of a necessity to be able to make that assessment.

 

Look, I wanted Rosen just like most of us, but if you really watch the game tape of Allen you see a kid trying to win football games by himself. He is not flawless but many of his flaws were accentuated by the fact that the guy was a one man team. If Rosen had played for Wyoming he'd be dead.

[dollars 2 donuts]

Sorry to be speaking out of school a bit on the OT, but didn't someone here also link to a stat that showed that Allen was far and away (maybe by as much as more than 50%) the QB that had the most yards passing through the air before the ball got to his receiver?

 

I bring it up from the strained point (with little to back it up, mind you) that as the ball travels further through the air, there is likely a greater variable on what can happen, either with the coverage or even the receivers perception of the catch that has to be made, as well as the type of pass that needs to be thrown.

 

For example, if I am standing next to oldmanfan, maybe 6-7 feet away, accuracy and precision go a little bit out the window as even if these measures are off, because as we toss the ball back and forth we can recover fairly easily given the limited variation on the equation of what can happen...I could be high, low, whatever on every single toss, but it will still be just a toss and there is little in between us that can change what is going on.

 

As that distance grows I think things are a little more up in the air, no pun intended.  I can have a higher completion percentage on shorter throws even if the throws are erratic assuming the above interpretation is sound, accuracy and precision be damned.

 

My main point is even if this kid is 50-50, if the throw goes almost 10 yards I will take that as much on 3rd down as I would take someone who is 60-40, but the pass goes 6 yards and the receiver is stopped before the first down marker.

 

Again, my apologies as it is slightly off topic, it's just this thread made me think of it.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2018 by dollars 2 donuts

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, Juice_32 said:

 

I get it, but how can you have pocket presence without a pocket? It's sort of a necessity to be able to make that assessment.

 

Look, I wanted Rosen just like most of us, but if you really watch the game tape of Allen you see a kid trying to win football games by himself. He is not flawless but many of his flaws were accentuated by the fact that the guy was a one man team. If Rosen had played for Wyoming he'd be dead.

I may be overly negative but I don't want people to rush this kid. He needs to sit all of 2018. The biggest reason being the Bills offense is terrible. 

[dollars 2 donuts]

3 minutes ago, Juice_32 said:

 

I get it, but how can you have pocket presence without a pocket? It's sort of a necessity to be able to make that assessment.

 

Look, I wanted Rosen just like most of us, but if you really watch the game tape of Allen you see a kid trying to win football games by himself. He is not flawless but many of his flaws were accentuated by the fact that the guy was a one man team. If Rosen had played for Wyoming he'd be dead.

 

Juice, so much truth in what you said here I wish I could add an extra thumbs up.

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

 

12 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

His supporting cast was bad, I just hate making that excuse. 

 

So don't make it an excuse. Make it a factor. It's valid. 

 

 

[Ramza86]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

 Same here.  The vast majority of his passes were right on target.  I think decision-making in the pocket is his biggest issue by far.

 

Do you have any kind of link or video with a time stamp on it with these kind of errors?

 

I havent been able to find anything. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

17 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

His supporting cast was bad, I just hate making that excuse. 

Watch his 2016 tape then. He was less experienced, but had a better supporting cast.

[GG]

5 minutes ago, Ramza86 said:

 

Do you have any kind of link or video with a time stamp on it with these kind of errors?

 

I havent been able to find anything. 

Watch the Iowa & Oregon games

[Magox]

49 minutes ago, Juice_32 said:

 

What pocket? Watch the full game videos. The guy was running for his life, not by choice. Watch the senior bowl tape. With a pocket he did just fine. 

 

While I largely agree with that, there were quite a few times where he felt a phantom pressure and bailed from the pocket prematurely.  I understand why, he was constantly under siege but none the less it is an area that he will have to correct.    

 

He also needs to learn how to reset his feet better for his check downs, often you would see him hit his intermediate passes with lots of accuracy but when that option was taken away and he checked down he would throw the ball inaccurately to his safety valve option.  That is all mechanics and he'll have to correct that.

 

And of course his progressions.  I wouldn't at all characterize this area as a severe weakness of his, but he definitely isn't at a Josh Rosen sort of level and probably never will be when it comes to this.   That will come with game preparation and experience.

 

Where Allen is much more dominant than where Rosen will ever be in one area is obviously his arm strength.  He can make throws that very few QB's in the NFL can make and make throws that are difficult for most QB's look simple.   Throwing those laser 25 yard passes or those throws he does on the run 40-50 yard down the field are passes that just don't get made the way he can do them.

 

His elite escapability of getting out of the pocket and making the passes he makes is an area that not many other NFL QB's can do.  Sure, lots of QB's can throw from outside of the pocket but not at his potential capabilities. 

 

Then of course there is his athleticism and size, there aren't many QB's in this league that have his size speed combination.  It will serve him well in and out of the pocket and that is a big advantage that he has over someone like a Josh Rosen.

 

Most importantly, what he has upstairs.   He clearly is a very intelligent, hard-working guy that has shown leadership and moldable qualities.  Most successful QB's have all these traits and he happens to be one of them.

 

I think odds are that there is a 50/50 chance of him being better than Flacco with a chance of being as good as Roethlisberger.

Edited May 8, 2018 by Magox