Chris Trapasso: A Plan for the Bills to Get the Most Out of Josh Allen

[Nihilarian]

6 hours ago, Max Fischer said:

 

I like and respect Trapasso but he seems to get too locked into a narrative without much consideration of circumstance. 

 

There is reason to believe Allen will improve with coaching and a decent supporting cast that would certainly help with all three of these “flaws.” 

 

On most snaps Josh is running for his life, and without the toughness to shake off tackles and athleticism to avoid the rush he would’ve been sacked much more often.  Put Rosen or Rudolph behind that line and they might not be considered top prospects. While Mayfield was a scrambler it seemed to be more style than necessity and he often seemed to have at least one receiver open.  Only Jackson seemed to encounter consistent pressure as Allen. 

 

Yes, you can see Allen taking the extra chance which was often the cause of an interception or bad throw but so often it seemed he was trying to make something happen. To me, his team lived and died on his ability to will them to a win. That’s a ton of pressure on one player. Again, see Jackson compared to other QBs. 

3

This is it exactly. All the top QBs had better talent around them in 2017 over Allen.

 

What worries me is that Cam Newton had better talent around him in his first season.  If you look at the quality of players around Newton in his first season he had a bunch of first and second rounders on that offensive line that was veteran players like all pro center Ryan Kalil. Greg Olsen at TE, Steve Smith at WR.

 

That 2011 Panther team was 11th in rushing attempts yet were #3 in yards, #1 in TDs and #1 in YPA. Granted Newton had 706 yards rushing and 14 rushing TD's. He also had 4051 passing yards. 

 

Now Allen will have McCoy at RB, Benjamin at WR, Charles Clay at TE. But his offensive line will be hot garbage with no Incognito, Woods or Glenn. That all-pro at left guard made both the center and left tackle that looked so much better than they actually were. 

 

The Buffalo Bills need to drastically upgrade the talent on that offensive line or no QB  will play well in 2018.

Edited May 3, 2018 by Nihilarian

[NastyNateSoldiers]

5 hours ago, LikeIGiveADarn said:

 

is there any other player at Wyoming that is forecasted to make the NFL? I legitimately do not know...

I agree he didn't have much help but what team he played other then Iowa had multiple NFL prospects.  Allen didn't play with much but also didnt play against much competition. 

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, No Cease Fires said:

 

Yep. In this very article:

 

In 2017, a whopping 67 percent of Allen's passing yards came through the air, not after the catch, per Sports Info Solutions.

Here's how that stacks up with the other quarterbacks picked in the first round of the 2018 draft:

• Baker Mayfield: 49 percent
• Sam Darnold: 53.1 percent
• Josh Rosen: 50.5 percent
• Lamar Jackson: 54.0 percent

 

I think Allen is going to (hopefully) be an interesting case study as far as the NFL draft goes.

 

In the "scouting vs analytics" discussion, Allen becoming a Franchise QB would be the ultimate argument for scouting.

 

It's really that simple.

[transplantbillsfan]

8 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

I think that's a pretty fair statement given the boom or bust nature of Allen as a prospect in combination with a trade up that cost them two 2nd round picks. 

 

Again... it's a risk if you are making the argument from the perspective of analytics.

 

From the perspective of analytics, Allen was a terrible pick, no matter how you slice it.

 

Analytics absolutely loves Baker Mayfield, which is part of why he went #1.

 

And I 100% wanted to draft Mayfield over any other QB.

 

But with Allen you have to dive deep into personal background, film study, whiteboard breakdowns, one-on-one's and so on.

 

Scouting is harder, more time consuming and very subjective.

 

So, yeah, this is boom or bust. But I think if Beane is a very smart, observant, intuitive scout (GM), then the boom will be more like BOOM!!!!

 

 

 

As for the 2nd round picks... who cares??? Honestly, Allen is literally the only player who makes this draft a success or a bust. If he turns into a Franchise QB, those two 2nd rounders will be quickly forgotten.

[Commish]

By design, Allen threw hardly any screens or bubbles - not because he can't, but because his coaches asked him to throw intermediate and deep routes. That accounts in large part for the lower percentage completion. Mayfield, in contrast, was all about the short pass - much easier to get that gaudy 70% completion rate.

[eball]

11 hours ago, No Cease Fires said:

 

Yep. In this very article:

 

In 2017, a whopping 67 percent of Allen's passing yards came through the air, not after the catch, per Sports Info Solutions.

Here's how that stacks up with the other quarterbacks picked in the first round of the 2018 draft:

• Baker Mayfield: 49 percent
• Sam Darnold: 53.1 percent
• Josh Rosen: 50.5 percent
• Lamar Jackson: 54.0 percent

 

BOOM goes the dynamite!  Amazing how nobody talked about this leading up to the draft.  At least not that I saw.  Put Allen in the Oklahoma, USC, UCLA, or Louisville offenses and his completion percentage likely looks much different.

 

After watching some tape on Allen since he was drafted (mea culpa -- I watched nary a bit on any QB before the draft) I have come around to the conclusion that he is not, per se, "inaccurate."  He just needs coaching on the nuances of the position, and to learn when and when not to take risks.  The needle continues to tick up on this kid for me, and I've admitted numerous times he was probably my 4th choice pre-draft.

 

Bold prediction:  Allen gives McCarron a run for his money in training camp and creates an interesting decision for McD to start the season.

[Scorp83]

12 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Here's a plan for the Bills to get the most out of Josh Allen, and it involves Cam Newton

When creating a scheme for Allen, the Bills should look to a quarterback head coach Sean McDermott knows well

 

by Chris Trapasso

 

By drafting Josh Allen, the Bills took the biggest risk of all the teams that selected a quarterback in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft.

 

Despite being the most physically-imposing quarterback to enter the NFL in some time, the Wyoming product joins the league with three major flaws to his game. That combination led to Allen being one of the most polarizing signal-caller prospects of the last decade, but he was still a top-10 pick.

 

The moment his name was announced by Roger Goodell, I was confused as to why the Bills decided to take a risk on such a dicey project at quarterback in this draft of all drafts, and I'm skeptical it will work out for him in Buffalo.

 

My concerns with Allen are as follows:

 

• Lack of consistent accuracy
• Habitually leaving the pocket at the first sign of pressure
• Tendency to "overextend" plays while improvising, frequently throwing off-balance into precarious situations

I just don't believe in Josh Allen... I feel like we took the wrong QB... & it concerns me that the front office was willing to give up more picks for this kid. For the front office sake... I hope they are right. But I don't believe in Josh Allen until he actually proves it...

 

"I will not fall for the banana in the tailpipe" - Eddie Murphy

[Tyrod's friend]

11 hours ago, LikeIGiveADarn said:

 

That's what stood out to me. It screams that Allen's receivers WERE NOT GOOD AT ALL. That number screams of "his receivers weren't athletic enough to separate, weren't strong enough to overpower DBs after the catch, but Allen still got the ball in their hands."

That's one assumption. The other might be that Allen stared down his receivers, allowing DBs to close on them. Yet another might be that Allen wasn't throwing his WRs open.

One thing we can put to rest is that his completion percentage fell because of dropped passes. I've read this over and over again about "Just look at the X Game. In the first half he had X drops". Bullsh!t. 

Look, I don't care WHY his completion was too low. In the end, his completion percentage was low and has been all his life because of the choices he made. He likes to throw, across his body, 50-60 yards downfield as he is falling back. His normal, first reaction when facing pressure is often to scramble. He puts himself into situations where he can fail and he does. 

Unlike many, I actually think that the problem with Allen isn't his accuracy. I think it's his inherent decision making - which on some level can certainly be game planned out. But not all of it. He has truly a lifetime of making incredibly bad decisions and if you think you can change a "fight-or-flight" mentality you are frankly NUTS. 

[Soda Popinski]

10 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

Josh Allen is the anti-Tyrod.

 

 

I've missed you

[26CornerBlitz]

Drool worthy throw!

 

[eball]

19 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Drool worthy throw!

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Magox]

40 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Drool worthy throw!

 

 

 

Very few QB's on this planet can throw the ball 50 yards in the air with that low trajectory.   It really gives him such an advantage if he can learn to truly harness it.

[Soda Popinski]

That was a thing of beauty.   

[The Now Moment]

43 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Drool worthy throw!

 

Josh Allen's senior bowl was really solid.  The game was solid as well.  He made some throws down the field just like this one that should make Bills fans jump for joy.  We as a fan base have been begging for a guy to throw the ball down the field, this is the guy to do that.  I still drool over his touchdown throws in the senior bowl game.

[Max Fischer]

7 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

This is it exactly. All the top QBs had better talent around them in 2017 over Allen.

 

What worries me is that Cam Newton had better talent around him in his first season.  If you look at the quality of players around Newton in his first season he had a bunch of first and second rounders on that offensive line that was veteran players like all pro center Ryan Kalil. Greg Olsen at TE, Steve Smith at WR.

 

That 2011 Panther team was 11th in rushing attempts yet were #3 in yards, #1 in TDs and #1 in YPA. Granted Newton had 706 yards rushing and 14 rushing TD's. He also had 4051 passing yards. 

 

Now Allen will have McCoy at RB, Benjamin at WR, Charles Clay at TE. But his offensive line will be hot garbage with no Incognito, Woods or Glenn. That all-pro at left guard made both the center and left tackle that looked so much better than they actually were. 

 

The Buffalo Bills need to drastically upgrade the talent on that offensive line or no QB  will play well in 2018.

 

Agree.  I think one of the reasons to have Allen sit is that early in the season is that AJ McCarron would probably play better with a crappy Oline.  Yes, AJ hasn't taken many NFL snaps but he's had time to learn NFL offenses and probably would play better with the current lineup. Still sucks for AJ but in the long run it might make more sense for the team. If AJ doesn't perform with the current lineup, it could be worth seeing what Allen could do.  

 

 

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Buffalo30 said:

Josh Allen's senior bowl was really solid.  The game was solid as well.  He made some throws down the field just like this one that should make Bills fans jump for joy.  We as a fan base have been begging for a guy to throw the ball down the field, this is the guy to do that.  I still drool over his touchdown throws in the senior bowl game.

 

He did well in the 3rd quarter of the Senior Bowl after playing poorly in the 1st half.  Either way I don't put much stock into the game with defenses limited in how they are allowed to apply pressure. 

 

What?!?

[Dr. Who]

14 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

If Rudolph turns out good he'll look like a genius. Might be worth waiting to see what happens before assuming he's wrong.

I'm not assuming anything except that his obvious preference for one qb most likely skews his impression of another.

[eball]

7 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

 

Now Allen will have McCoy at RB, Benjamin at WR, Charles Clay at TE. But his offensive line will be hot garbage with no Incognito, Woods or Glenn. That all-pro at left guard made both the center and left tackle that looked so much better than they actually were. 

 

The Buffalo Bills need to drastically upgrade the talent on that offensive line or no QB will play well in 2018.

 

This is actually a pretty funny set of statements.  No Incognito, Woods, or Glenn means bad OL -- but Incognito made Woods look better than he is, and Glenn didn't even play.

 

I read this to mean if the Bills find a competent replacement for Incognito they won't have lost much (if anything).  Groy did very well two years ago subbing for Wood, and Dawkins should improve in his 2nd year after holding his own last season.

 

That said, I agree with your premise that the OL is a key to any QB performing well.

[26CornerBlitz]

by Jim Kubiak, Special to Buffalo Sports Page

The jump from Collegiate to Professional football is the greatest transition a football player makes in his lifetime. This profound leap is multifactorial, in that there are many layers that determine a players’ ultimate success at the highest level of competition . It is this study of these specific factors that we as fans are so very interested in. I would like to offer a brief glimpse into several categorical layers that may lead to the successful development of NFL Quarterbacks, and in particular Bills’ 1st round pick, Josh Allen.