4-11: Dane Brugler Talks NFL Draft on WGR

[26CornerBlitz]

4-11: Dane Brugler of NFLDraftScout.com on WGR (13:36)

 

Brugler says Mason Rudolph is a 3rd round prospect who is in for a major adjustment at the NFL level.  Says Lamar Jackson is by far a much better choice in terms of talent and learning curve if the Bills stay at 12.  His best QB prospect is Darnold.  He would take a shot on Josh Allen in the 1st round, but not as a top 5 guy.   His top WR prospects are Calvin Ridley and DJ Moore.  Loves Roquan Smith for the Bills if they can't get a QB at 12. 

Edited April 11, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[jrober38]

Fully agree.

 

I don't see any difference between Rudolph and guys like Bryce Petty or Landry Jones. 

 

He's a very mediocre QB prospect with a low ceiling. 

[26CornerBlitz]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Fully agree.

 

I don't see any difference between Rudolph and guys like Bryce Petty or Landry Jones. 

 

He's a very mediocre QB prospect with a low ceiling. 

 

Not buying into the late hype for him either. 

[JoPar_v2]

7 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Fully agree.

 

I don't see any difference between Rudolph and guys like Bryce Petty or Landry Jones. 

 

He's a very mediocre QB prospect with a low ceiling. 

Yup. Dana (and you) got it exactly right. People talking about saving picks and taking Rudolph at 22 are blowing my mind. Trading up is “bad” and “wasteful” but taking a guy 60 picks too early is a-okay with them? The mind reels at the absolute stupidity.

[BuffaloBillyG]

15 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

4-11: Dane Brugler of NFLDraftScout.com on WGR (13:36)

 

Brugler says Mason Rudolph is a 3rd round pick who is in for a major adjustment at the NFL level.  Says Lamar Jackson is by far a much better choice in terms of talent and learning curve if the Bills stay at 12.  His best QB prospect is Darnold.  He would take a shot on Josh Allen in the 1st round, but not as a top 5 guy.   His top WR prospects are Calvin Ridley and DJ Moore.  Loves Roquan Smith for the Bills if they can't get a QB at 12. 

Imo, Mason Rudolph is getting the placement and hype Josh Allen SHOULD have. But here's to hoping the Browns/Jets shock the world and grab him.

[26CornerBlitz]

Also want to add that he isn't enthused about the 2019 draft with respect to QBs. 

Edited April 11, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[jrober38]

16 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Not buying into the late hype for him either. 

 

If you watch the guy's highlights, he succeeds when he has a perfect pocket around him. He generally needs a perfect pocket to set up from to be effective, and that's incredibly rare in the NFL. When he's pressured, and has to move off his spot, his play suffers badly. 

 

Combine that with limited mobility and a mediocre arm and I see nothing more than a 3rd round prospect. People look at the fact that he threw for 4,900 yards this year and assume he's a great passer. Reality is that he's pretty limited and has very few traits you see from top NFL QBs. 

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

If you watch the guy's highlights, he succeeds when he has a perfect pocket around him. He generally needs a perfect pocket to set up from to be effective, and that's incredibly rare in the NFL. When he's pressured, and has to move off his spot, his play suffers badly. 

 

Combine that with limited mobility and a mediocre arm and I see nothing more than a 3rd round prospect. People look at the fact that he threw for 4,900 yards this year and assume he's a great passer. Reality is that he's pretty limited and has very few traits you see from top NFL QBs. 

 

Spot on assessment.  I can see him struggling at the NFL level with pressure in his face and being very susceptible to turnovers. 

[BuffaloBillies]

Say what you want about Rudolph (team, schedule, system, guys around him, etc), but it's tough to argue with his stats:

 

Improvement every year. 65% comp pct. Nearly 5,000 yards last year with a 37/9 TD/Int ratio and a  passer rating that is off the charts.

Maybe it won't translate to NFL, but at least you'd know he's put up numbers like this in the past, so physically he's capable.

 

Edited April 11, 2018 by BuffaloBillies

[jrober38]

Just now, BuffaloBillies said:

Say what you want about Rudolph (team, schedule, system, guys around him, etc), but it's tough to argue with his stats:

 

Improvement every year. 65% comp pct. Nearly 5,000 yards last year with a 37/9 TD/Int ratio and a  passer rating that is off the charts.

Maybe it won't translate to NFL, but at least you'd know he's put up numbers like this in the past, so physically he's capable.

 

 

It's actually really easy to argue with stats. 

They mean absolutely nothing when projecting NFL success. 

[KDIGGZ]

4 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

If you watch the guy's highlights, he succeeds when he has a perfect pocket around him. He generally needs a perfect pocket to set up from to be effective, and that's incredibly rare in the NFL. When he's pressured, and has to move off his spot, his play suffers badly. 

 

Combine that with limited mobility and a mediocre arm and I see nothing more than a 3rd round prospect. People look at the fact that he threw for 4,900 yards this year and assume he's a great passer. Reality is that he's pretty limited and has very few traits you see from top NFL QBs. 

correct.  in his offense, the passes are basically "long handoffs" where you get the ball instantly to the playmaker.  it's 1 read and throw and they are usually wide open because well it's the big 12 and nobody plays defense.  those plays will definitely pad your stats.  add to that where you have 2 receivers who are going in the top 2 rounds of the NFL draft and against that coverage you can basically just throw the ball up for grabs and they will come down with it, which is what many of his passes are.  Rudolph is at best a backup in this league

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillies said:

Say what you want about Rudolph (team, schedule, system, guys around him, etc), but it's tough to argue with his stats:

 

Improvement every year. 65% comp pct. Nearly 5,000 yards last year with a 37/9 TD/Int ratio and a  passer rating that is off the charts.

Maybe it won't translate to NFL, but at least you'd know he's put up numbers like this in the past, so physically he's capable.

 

 

Means nothing at the NFL level.

[Chuck Wagon]

I can live with Jackson if a trade up simply isn't possible.

 

I don't see much difference in Rudolph vs Falk, Lauletta, Ferguson, White.  There's simply going to be too much talent on the board at 12 and 22 to justify taking anyone from that group before our 2nd / 3rd round picks.

[Tatonka68]

Jackson is garbage. Please look at the games he played against quality defenses and not his padded stats against Duke. TaxSlayer bowl 13 of 31 171 yards and 4 INT's. He is just a gimmick QB who pads his stats against under talented undisciplined defenses. He is Tyrod/RGIII 2.0.

[MrEpsYtown]

10 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Means nothing at the NFL level.

 

Yep. Timmy Chang, Ty Detmer, Colt Brennan, Eric Crouch say hi. Graham Harrell is hanging out somewhere as well. Arguably, the best quarterback in college history is now playing minor league baseball. Another one played point guard for the Knicks. People seem to really struggle to understand the idea of projection and what it takes to win in the NFL versus college. Not really sure what the confusion is on these boards. 

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

50 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

4-11: Dane Brugler of NFLDraftScout.com on WGR (13:36)

 

Brugler says Mason Rudolph is a 3rd round prospect who is in for a major adjustment at the NFL level.  Says Lamar Jackson is by far a much better choice in terms of talent and learning curve if the Bills stay at 12.  His best QB prospect is Darnold.  He would take a shot on Josh Allen in the 1st round, but not as a top 5 guy.   His top WR prospects are Calvin Ridley and DJ Moore.  Loves Roquan Smith for the Bills if they can't get a QB at 12. 

John from Riverside and skycap just had a thunderous, mutual orgasm

[jrober38]

3 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Yep. Timmy Chang, Ty Detmer, Colt Brennan, Eric Crouch say hi. Graham Harrell is hanging out somewhere as well. Arguably, the best quarterback in college history is now playing minor league baseball. Another one played point guard for the Knicks. People seem to really struggle to understand the idea of projection and what it takes to win in the NFL versus college. Not really sure what the confusion is on these boards. 

 

A lot of people have no idea what to look for, so the easiest crutch to lean on is college production. Next is whether or not they look like other NFL QBs (height, weight, mobility guys). 

[BuffaloBillies]

4 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Yep. Timmy Chang, Ty Detmer, Colt Brennan, Eric Crouch say hi. Graham Harrell is hanging out somewhere as well. Arguably, the best quarterback in college history is now playing minor league baseball. Another one played point guard for the Knicks. People seem to really struggle to understand the idea of projection and what it takes to win in the NFL versus college. Not really sure what the confusion is on these boards. 

 

No confusion. Just analyzing as much as possible and prior performance has to at least count for a little something, doesn't it? I'm NOT saying it is at all a primary deciding factor... just a factor. Rudolph 65% and 5,000 yds... Allen 56% and 1,800 yds. last year.  Just something to look at.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo Bills Detective said:

John from Riverside and skycap just had a thunderous, mutual orgasm

 

I believe this is the second or third time I've asked nicely: please knock it off.

[thenorthremembers]

18 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Means nothing at the NFL level.

 

This is completely incorrect.  To say their is no correlation to college stats and future NFL success is wrong. 

 

You wont find a lot of quarterbacks that have found big time success in the NFL who:

 

Started less than 25 games in college

Won less than 20 games in college

Had a winning pct under 60%

Had a comp % under 57%

Threw for less than 200 yards/gm

Threw for less than 1.5 Tds/Gm

and threw more than 1.0 int/gm

 

There are anomalies in every case, but to say it cant be used as some sort of predictor of future success I think is inaccurate.

On the field play may trump stats, but in many cases you cant have one without the other.

[baskingridgebillsfan]

more and more I am thinking they will pick Rosen at 5,6 or 7

allen 

darnold 

Mayfield 

Barkely 

Denver have a friend who lives in Denver the thought is they are not taking a qb. chubb or trade down 

indy has all but announced they want to trade down so you would think 5 or 6 is the sweet spot 

the cost tbd 

[26CornerBlitz]

10 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

This is completely incorrect.  To say their is no correlation to college stats and future NFL success is wrong. 

 

You wont find a lot of quarterbacks that have found big time success in the NFL who:

 

Started less than 25 games in college

Won less than 20 games in college

Had a winning pct under 60%

Had a comp % under 57%

Threw for less than 200 yards/gm

Threw for less than 1.5 Tds/Gm

and threw more than 1.0 int/gm

 

There are anomalies in every case, but to say it cant be used as some sort of predictor of future success I think is inaccurate.

On the field play may trump stats, but in many cases you cant have one without the other.

 

The stats he quoted mean nothing as I posted the1st time. 

 

See Manziel as a prime example: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/johnny-manziel-1.html

[thenorthremembers]

Just now, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

The stats he quoted mean nothing as I posted the1st time. 

 

I see your point on the Rudolph stats.  My only point here is this, if I am trying to decide between two guys like Jackson and Rudolph I am generally going to go with the guy with stats closer to the average of quarterbacks who have found success in the league. 

[26CornerBlitz]

5 minutes ago, thenorthremembers said:

 

I see your point on the Rudolph stats.  My only point here is this, if I am trying to decide between two guys like Jackson and Rudolph I am generally going to go with the guy with stats closer to the average of quarterbacks who have found success in the league. 

 

Scouting by stats will lead to a wasted draft pick on a guy like Mason.   Jackson is much more talented and played in an NFL system with more complex route combinations.  

Edited April 11, 2018 by 26CornerBlitz

[jrober38]

22 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

 

No confusion. Just analyzing as much as possible and prior performance has to at least count for a little something, doesn't it? I'm NOT saying it is at all a primary deciding factor... just a factor. Rudolph 65% and 5,000 yds... Allen 56% and 1,800 yds. last year.  Just something to look at.

 

This makes sense.

 

Overall I think you can use stats to strongly argue certain players won't work out (guys like Allen who didn't produce), but there's no correlation between elite production and NFL success. 

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Not buying into the late hype for him either. 

 

I take every QB review this time of year with a grain of salt. So many "experts" with opposite opinions. You never know who is being paid to shill for certain players by agents.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I take every QB review this time of year with a grain of salt. So many "experts" with opposite opinions. You never know who is being paid to shill for certain players by agents.

 

I don't.  I watch prospects under game conditions to see whether analysts' assessment matches. 

[xRUSHx]

58 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Jackson is garbage. Please look at the games he played against quality defenses and not his padded stats against Duke. TaxSlayer bowl 13 of 31 171 yards and 4 INT's. He is just a gimmick QB who pads his stats against under talented undisciplined defenses. He is Tyrod/RGIII 2.0.

I agree, also like to add.

His lower half really gets me, makes me wonder if he ever worked his lower half of his body. Big NFL players landing on him will break him in half IMO.

 

Sadly it would be so Billsy to take him and screw up such a good QB class to pick from. The others do well in the NFL and the one we get is on IR most of his career if he even finishes his first contract. Run Jackson Run, I can imagine everyone cringing everytime he runs in hope he doesn't get snapped in half with those toothpick legs.

Edited April 11, 2018 by xRUSHx