BigDingus Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2018/3/25/17129282/buffalo-bills-have-never-picked-a-quarterback-in-the-top-10-of-the-nfl-draft-three-teams "Since the NFL merger in 1970, the Bills are one of three teams to never have used a top-10 draft pick at the most important position in the game. Buffalo is joined on this list by the Minnesota Vikings and Baltimore Ravens." "Buffalo has only used a first-round draft pick on a quarterback three times, with one winding up as a Hall of Famer, and the other two leaving Buffalo after disappointing tenures. The last two times the Bills picked a quarterback in the first round, they missed badly on their quarterback of the future." And we've only been to the playoffs a handful of times outside of the Kelly era... We always try the "build a strong team around a game manager" approach, and we end up with the same results. We bring a new coach who has a renewed commitment to a "strong running game, combined with a hard-nosed defense" philosophy. Then we end up as a mediocre, middle of the road team, coach gets fired, new guy comes in & guts the previous regime's roster, and starts the cycle all over again. Hopefully Beane realizes this cycle needs to change & does what needs to be done. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Again, an interesting tidbit. Again, totally irrelevant to the task at hand. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDingus Posted March 25, 2018 Author Share Posted March 25, 2018 (edited) On 3/25/2018 at 12:08 PM, K-9 said: Again, an interesting tidbit. Again, totally irrelevant to the task at hand. No, it's definitely relevant in context of our franchise futility. It also goes hand in hand with our terrible GM's, coaches, and management philosophy prior to Beane. And in terms of this board, we have yet again countless people in the "kick the can ahead to next year again!" camp...the same people who always say "wait until next year" to draft a QB because they're afraid everyone is a bust if they're not automatically labeled the best QB of all time prior to stepping foot in the league. 100% relevant. Edited March 30, 2018 by BigDingus 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyrod's friend Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, BigDingus said: No, it's definitely relevant in context of our franchise futility. It also goes hand in hand with our terrible GM's, coaches, and management philosophy prior to Beane. And in terms of this board, we have yet again countless people in the "kick the ahead to next year yet again!" camp...the same people who always say "wait until next year" to draft a QB because they're afraid everyone is a bust if they're not automatically labeled the best QB of all time prior to stepping foot in the league. 100% relevant. What is interesting is that the Ravens have been competitive nearly the entirety of their franchise history. The Vikings have definitely been competitive the last three years. SO if the Ravens have been extremely competitive, in a tough division, and the Vikings have won the last three years ... doesn't that go to show you that it isn't an impossible path, but becomes so when you can't evaluate talent generally? You know what? If the Browns really f up and taken Allen or Barkley or Chubb or whatever at #1, and the Giants make it possible to get the best QB prospect in the last five years (Baker Mayfield), maybe you are right. https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-baker-mayfields-tape-numbers-say-he-should-be-no-1-overall-pick 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CommonCents Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Another streak that will soon end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 Let's list all the QBs picked in the first 10 rounds of the draft since 1980: 1980s: Rich Campbell Art Schlichter Jim McMahon John Elway Todd Blackledge Jim Everett Kelly Stouffer Vinnie Testaverde Troy Aikman 1990s: Jeff George Andre Ware David Klingler Drew Bledsoe Rick Mirer Heath Shuler Trent Dilfer Steve McNair Kerry Collins Peyton Manning Ryan Leaf Tim Couch Donovan McNabb Akili Smith 2000s: Michael Vick David Carr Joey Harrington Carson Palmer Byron Leftwich Eli Manning Philip Rivers Alex Smith Vince Young Matt Leinart Jamarcus Russell Matt Ryan Matthew Stafford Butt Fumble 2010s: Sam Bradford Cam Newton Jake Locker Andrew Luck RGIII Ryan Tannenhill Blake Bortles Jameis Winston Marcus Mariota Jared Goff Carson Wentz Patrick Mahomes Not an illustrious list. Certainly not a consistent-enough list that it suggests moving in to the top 10 to select a QB is worthwhile. Between the outright busts and the number of QBs who ended up moving to other teams and being successful, there's a decent argument to be made for moving in to the top 10 to pick a "franchise QB" to be a losing proposition, as more likely than not he'll either fail or be someone else's franchise QB down the road. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 You have to thank everyone’s favorite GM Buddy Nix who drafted twice in the top 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ColoradoBills Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 (edited) 18 minutes ago, BigDingus said: No, it's definitely relevant in context of our franchise futility. It also goes hand in hand with our terrible GM's, coaches, and management philosophy prior to Beane. And in terms of this board, we have yet again countless people in the "kick the ahead to next year yet again!" camp...the same people who always say "wait until next year" to draft a QB because they're afraid everyone is a bust if they're not automatically labeled the best QB of all time prior to stepping foot in the league. 100% relevant. My opinion is that the Owner/Head Coach/GM situation if the most important, more important than the QB. I'm not saying McDermott/Beane is the answer BUT eventually you got to stick with something more than 2-3 years. Since 1969 Steelers have had 3 Head Coaches, Bill's 18. I believe as a general rule, good to great organizations win in the long run! Edited March 25, 2018 by ColoradoBills add Owner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, DC Tom said: Let's list all the QBs picked in the first 10 rounds of the draft since 1980: 1980s: Rich Campbell Art Schlichter Jim McMahon John Elway Todd Blackledge Jim Everett Kelly Stouffer Vinnie Testaverde Troy Aikman 1990s: Jeff George Andre Ware David Klingler Drew Bledsoe Rick Mirer Heath Shuler Trent Dilfer Steve McNair Kerry Collins Peyton Manning Ryan Leaf Tim Couch Donovan McNabb Akili Smith 2000s: Michael Vick David Carr Joey Harrington Carson Palmer Byron Leftwich Eli Manning Philip Rivers Alex Smith Vince Young Matt Leinart Jamarcus Russell Matt Ryan Matthew Stafford Butt Fumble 2010s: Sam Bradford Cam Newton Jake Locker Andrew Luck RGIII Ryan Tannenhill Blake Bortles Jameis Winston Marcus Mariota Jared Goff Carson Wentz Patrick Mahomes Not an illustrious list. Certainly not a consistent-enough list that it suggests moving in to the top 10 to select a QB is worthwhile. Between the outright busts and the number of QBs who ended up moving to other teams and being successful, there's a decent argument to be made for moving in to the top 10 to pick a "franchise QB" to be a losing proposition, as more likely than not he'll either fail or be someone else's franchise QB down the road. Yes, there are a lot of misses on the list. There are also a lot of hits and a few Hall of Famers. You miss all of the shots you don't take. Yes, the Bills could wind up with an Akili Smith or Jamarcus Russell. They could also end up with a John Elway or Peyton Manning. You've got to fire your gun at some point and hope for the best. Lord knows we've got enough bullets this year. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Logic said: Yes, there are a lot of misses on the list. There are also a lot of hits and a few Hall of Famers. You miss all of the shots you don't take. Yes, the Bills could wind up with an Akili Smith or Jamarcus Russell. They could also end up with a John Elway or Peyton Manning. You've got to fire your gun at some point and hope for the best. Lord knows we've got enough bullets this year. You bolded 14 of 49 names (I would have included Carson Palmer and Vinnie GreenBalls, though, as they had reasonably good careers.) That's a 3 in 10 success rate. Given that the overall rate at which top-ten picks go to the Pro Bowl (around 50%), that's a significant indication that teams over-reach for QBs in the top 10. Plus, in this case what's being advocated in this case is moving up to the top 10, which requires the expenditure of additional resources (picks or players). So basically, the idea is that we should over-reach even more than usual on a 7 in 10 chance of a bust. All on the fallacious idea that you have to take all the shots because "you miss all the shots you don't take." Which is thoroughly retarded - you're using a form of gambler's fallacy to raise on drawing a full house on one pair, because although you probably won't draw that full house, you definitely won't if you don't call and take three cards. You really are the most misnamed poster ever. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 While an interesting oddity, that the Bills haven't used a top ten pick on a QB isnt significant in and of itself. How many top ten selections have they had ( since say 1980 as the game in the 1970's was different and Ferguson was a solid starter. ) How many QBs selected in the top ten have the Bills actually passed on ? In other words, was the player actually available to them with their original draft spot? I'd wager that no, the Bills haven't passed on drafting a top QB that was available when they selected in the top ten of the NFL draft. We know the Bills have lacked top end QB play pretty much since the Kelly era. There is no magic bullet strategy that they obliviously failed to employ. They have tried and failed trading for other teams QBs. They have used their own first round selection . They have drafted QBs in other rounds. The greatest failure at drafting QBs has probably been not drafting enough of them. They could have landed Flacco, Dalton, Wilson, Brees, maybe even Rodgers if not for a (eventually) failed move up in round one the year before. A decent enough list. Their overall issue hasn't been the lack of spending a top ten pick, but not taking enough QBs in the draft overall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 30 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: You have to thank everyone’s favorite GM Buddy Nix who drafted twice in the top 10 Which QB in the top 10 did we miss out on those years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloRush Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 6 minutes ago, Bangarang said: Which QB in the top 10 did we miss out on those years? So Buddy Nix didn’t pass on drafting a QB in the Top 10 twice? Thats all im saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 3 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said: So Buddy Nix didn’t pass on drafting a QB in the Top 10 twice? Thats all im saying Who should he have drafted? Jake Locker? Blaine Gabbert? Christian Ponder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 I think Nix passed on Flacco. I don't know if there were other first round QBs that could be considered a " miss" by NIx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said: I think Nix passed on Flacco. I don't know if there were other first round QBs that could be considered a " miss" by NIx. Flacco was taken the year before Nix was our GM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boatdrinks Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bangarang said: Flacco was taken the year before Nix was our GM Ahhh thanks . I'm still not sure the Bills have passed on a QB in the first that has done much save for Flacco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddo Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bangarang said: Who should he have drafted? Jake Locker? Blaine Gabbert? Christian Ponder? That was a problem, top 10 picks and no decent QB to use them on. Makes you wonder how many other times the Bills have actually had top ten picks, in the first place, let alone the chance to use them on a decent QB. Some of the 'misses' are well documented, but most of those appear to be from outside of the top 10 picks anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 28 minutes ago, DC Tom said: You bolded 14 of 49 names (I would have included Carson Palmer and Vinnie GreenBalls, though, as they had reasonably good careers.) That's a 3 in 10 success rate. Given that the overall rate at which top-ten picks go to the Pro Bowl (around 50%), that's a significant indication that teams over-reach for QBs in the top 10. Plus, in this case what's being advocated in this case is moving up to the top 10, which requires the expenditure of additional resources (picks or players). So basically, the idea is that we should over-reach even more than usual on a 7 in 10 chance of a bust. All on the fallacious idea that you have to take all the shots because "you miss all the shots you don't take." Which is thoroughly retarded - you're using a form of gambler's fallacy to raise on drawing a full house on one pair, because although you probably won't draw that full house, you definitely won't if you don't call and take three cards. You really are the most misnamed poster ever. Ah, DC Tom. I know I can always count on you to make personal attacks in posts that don't warrant them. Also, it's 2018, maybe you could come up with some form of criticism other than calling things "retarded"? I guess I was operating under the mistaken impression that this is a message board built for discussion of topics. I missed the part where anyone who disagrees with you automatically has "retarded" opinions and is illogical. For your original post with the list of names to have any merit, we'd have to compare the success rate (30%, as you stated) with the collective success rate of all QBs taken OUTSIDE the top 10 picks in the past four decades. Want to guess which list has a higher rate of success overall? But forgive me, there I go again, DARING to have opinions that differ from yours, for which I must clearly be illogical and "retarded". Some real mature, high quality rebuttal on your part, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peace Frog Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 (edited) 1 hour ago, DC Tom said: Let's list all the QBs picked in the first 10 rounds of the draft since 1980: 1980s: Rich Campbell Art Schlichter Jim McMahon John Elway Todd Blackledge Jim Everett Kelly Stouffer Vinnie Testaverde Troy Aikman 1990s: Jeff George Andre Ware David Klingler Drew Bledsoe Rick Mirer Heath Shuler Trent Dilfer Steve McNair Kerry Collins Peyton Manning Ryan Leaf Tim Couch Donovan McNabb Akili Smith 2000s: Michael Vick David Carr Joey Harrington Carson Palmer Byron Leftwich Eli Manning Philip Rivers Alex Smith Vince Young Matt Leinart Jamarcus Russell Matt Ryan Matthew Stafford Butt Fumble 2010s: Sam Bradford Cam Newton Jake Locker Andrew Luck RGIII Ryan Tannenhill Blake Bortles Jameis Winston Marcus Mariota Jared Goff Carson Wentz Patrick Mahomes Not an illustrious list. Certainly not a consistent-enough list that it suggests moving in to the top 10 to select a QB is worthwhile. Between the outright busts and the number of QBs who ended up moving to other teams and being successful, there's a decent argument to be made for moving in to the top 10 to pick a "franchise QB" to be a losing proposition, as more likely than not he'll either fail or be someone else's franchise QB down the road. Ha, ha.....Butt Fumble. Edited March 25, 2018 by Peace Frog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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