Bucky Brooks Scout's Notebook: Stop Overdrafting Quarterbacks!

[GoBills808]

This from the guy who mocked up Manziel at 3rd overall in 2014.

[#34fan]

Sucky-Bucky... Me hate him long time... But he's kinda right about this one.

[GoBills808]

48 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Of course they would be.

 

The issue is that most QBs, in every round, bust, and given that it's the most important position in football, if you're a GM, and you whiff on a QB in round 1, you're probably not going to get a second kick at the can. 

If you take away the guys who go #1 overall, 70% of first round QBs bust, about 75% of 2nd and 3rd rounders bust, about 90% of 4th rounders bust, and good QBs flat out don't come from the 5th to 7th rounds over the past decade. 

 

It's really hard to find a QB, and consequences of choosing one and them not being good usually result in early termination at the GM and HC positions. 

Why would you take away the guys who go #1 overall?

[Locomark]

Bucky Brooks is one awful analyst. I wouldn’t want to put faith in anything he says. Without a better than average QB you can’t do anything in this league. Once LeSean leaves, I bet we go spread offense and start grabbing  WRs galore.

[Cripple Creek]

3 hours ago, CuddyDark said:

This is what I been saying in almost every thread on QBs. I believe there are 7 player better than every QB in this draft. There are no Luck's or Wentz in this draft. No one ranks the QBs as the top players in the draft.

Contratulations.

 

See your QB? Go get your QB.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, jrober38 said:

 

None of this happened while they were wearing a Bills uniform. 

 

Right......but they were drafted in round one based on their talent and they didn't become more talented when they left.    

 

Your QB is the personnel foundation of your team in the 21st century NFL...........you will struggle to build anything sustainable without a strong foundation..........and that leads to roster strife like difficulty evaluating your own players value.........and coaching changes and the subsequent scheme/culture related turnover etc.........which is how the Bills turned themselves into a reliable farm system for the rest of the league the past two decades. 

 

[Pete]

how did Archie Manning work out for the Saints?  A 53 man roster needs much more then a QB

[Section242]

18 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

SCOUT'S NOTEBOOK
Top-five QBs? Not So Fast
The draft stock of 2018's top passers -- Josh Allen, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen -- has seemingly never been higher. Bucky Brooks explains why we may be overvaluing QBs and gives his latest top-10 ranking.

 

Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. The topics of this edition include:

 

-- How the Jason Pierre-Paul trade impacts the Bucs' and Giants' draft plans.

 

-- Bill Belichick's magic hand in the offseason.

 

-- Has time run out for Dez Bryant?

 

But first, a warning about passing on future stars to draft a quarterback ...

* * * * *

Reviewing my notes from the fall, I believe there are only two quarterbacks worthy of top-10 grades, and they don't rank within my top five overall prospects. Here's my top 10 right now:

1) Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
2) Bradley Chubb, DE, N.C. State
3) Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
4) Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
5) Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
6) Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama
7) Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
8) Sam Darnold, QB, USC
9) Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
10) Derwin James, S, Florida State

 

What's the value of a great rb? Two guys in his top 10 could alter the course of a franchise and they're Rosen and Darnold. The best thing for the Bills would be for the Giants to take Barkley or Chubb. The worst thing the Giants could do would be drafting Chubb or Barkley.

 

Get the QB and worry about everything else. If you miss, oh well. Not like other positions couldn't bust.

[26CornerBlitz]

Just now, Section242 said:

 

What's the value of a great rb? Two guys in his top 10 could alter the course of a franchise and they're Rosen and Darnold. The best thing for the Bills would be for the Giants to take Barkley or Chubb. The worst thing the Giants could do would be drafting Chubb or Barkley.

 

Get the QB and worry about everything else. If you miss, oh well. Not like other positions couldn't bust.

 

Agreed. With the rookie wage scale, you can afford to take swings at QB that won't hamstring the franchise.  

[Reed83HOF]

2 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Agreed. With the rookie wage scale, you can afford to take swings at QB that won't hamstring the franchise.  

Which is much different now than in the past, say when RW owned the team

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, Reed83HOF said:

Which is much different now than in the past, say when RW owned the team

 

It's quite a bit different from the previous CBA.   

[Boca BIlls]

20 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

SCOUT'S NOTEBOOK
Top-five QBs? Not So Fast
The draft stock of 2018's top passers -- Josh Allen, Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen -- has seemingly never been higher. Bucky Brooks explains why we may be overvaluing QBs and gives his latest top-10 ranking.

 

Former NFL player and scout Bucky Brooks knows the ins and outs of this league, providing keen insight in his notebook. The topics of this edition include:

 

-- How the Jason Pierre-Paul trade impacts the Bucs' and Giants' draft plans.

 

-- Bill Belichick's magic hand in the offseason.

 

-- Has time run out for Dez Bryant?

 

But first, a warning about passing on future stars to draft a quarterback ...

* * * * *

Reviewing my notes from the fall, I believe there are only two quarterbacks worthy of top-10 grades, and they don't rank within my top five overall prospects. Here's my top 10 right now:

1) Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
2) Bradley Chubb, DE, N.C. State
3) Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
4) Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech
5) Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame
6) Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB, Alabama
7) Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
8) Sam Darnold, QB, USC
9) Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
10) Derwin James, S, Florida State

You cant... bucky such an idiot.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

how did Archie Manning work out for the Saints?  A 53 man roster needs much more then a QB

 

 

That was 40 years ago............and then the QB position meant considerably less.   

 

Face it.........the current NFL is set up to be all about the QB..........and the owners like it that way because they only HAVE to pay ONE player...........everyone else is dispensable.

 

The dumbest thing they could do from a business aspect would be to legislate the game to make other positions more closely valued to the QB.

 

Edited March 24, 2018 by BADOLBILZ

[jrober38]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Why would you take away the guys who go #1 overall?

Because we're not going to have the #1 overall pick.

It puts things in perspective for our specific situation, ie it's a long shot that we draft a good QB. 

[GoBills808]

20 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Because we're not going to have the #1 overall pick.

It puts things in perspective for our specific situation, ie it's a long shot that we draft a good QB. 

So what? We’re not going to have 30 out of 32 picks in the first round. Should we only be using past QBs picked at 12 and 22 in determining how bust-prone they may be? There’s no reason to exclude #1 overall QBs except that they skew your stat.

[jrober38]

12 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

So what? We’re not going to have 30 out of 32 picks in the first round. Should we only be using past QBs picked at 12 and 22 in determining how bust-prone they may be? There’s no reason to exclude #1 overall QBs except that they skew your stat.

 

Even with the guys who go #1, over 50% of all first rounders bust.

 

Feel better? 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

22 hours ago, CuddyDark said:

22 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

QBs are rightfully in a different category from other position players given how important they are to long term success at the NFL level.  Your view is too simplistic in this regard. 

And this is the mistake teams make. When you look at the high draft QBs who become great they do so because they are both the best QB in their draft class but also in most cases the best player in the draft overall. It the same question I've said before. If you could have Ray Lewis or Joe Flacco who would you choose? I'd go for Ray Lewis.

 

From what you quoted

 

From a guy who claims QB’s a bust before they play a down.  LOL. 

 

I’m thinking people get blinded by college rivalries and ignore what talent  a player may have or lack thereof.  

Edited March 25, 2018 by ShadyBillsFan

[26CornerBlitz]

 

This underscores the importance of the position in today's NFL. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

This underscores the importance of the position in today's NFL. 

There is a TDB Twitter Page for retweet’s.   Just saying. 

[Da webster guy]

On 3/23/2018 at 10:23 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Get your QB..........then you can stick to your draft board for the next 15-20 years.

 

Like it or not all other positions are basically disposable.

 

During the drought the Bills drafted plenty of All Pro and Pro Bowl non-QB's in round one and yet they usually had only 4-5 of their first rounders on their roster each year...........which was the average length of time of a first round contract during the drought.

 

When they finally made the playoffs they only had one first rounder on the active roster.    Less of those did not matter.  

 

People who think the Bills should horde draft picks and use them on non-QB's just don't understand the math...........and clearly neither does Bucky Brooks. 

 

 

yup.   and don't forget if you hit on a qb draft pick you have him for at least a dozen years, whereas some players like Barkley might have a prime career of half that time.