Time for Beane to Call Gettleman - Beane Says the Bills Have the Capital to Get to #2

[KDIGGZ]

15 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Albert Breer: NFL Draft Rumors Start in Cleveland
Late first-round picks lack value. The other day, I was spit-balling on a potential Bills-Giants swap with a team exec, who said to me, “The problem is that the 22nd pick might as well be in the third round.” He was exaggerating, but only a little bit. The consensus I’ve heard is the difference between 22 and 52 is minimal this year, which is part of why the Colts did well to land a couple high second-rounders in their trade with the Jets.

I saw this too.  A lot of people only see as many as 20 1st round worthy picks in this draft.  Pick 22 might as well be a 2nd rounder

[Roundybout]

Just now, kdiggz said:

I saw this too.  A lot of people only see as many as 20 1st round worthy picks in this draft.  Pick 22 might as well be a 2nd rounder

 

It's very very likely that next year's first is gone. I don't see it any other way. 

[Chuck Wagon]

11 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

Perhaps, but if there are only 18-20 first-round grades, then all it takes is one or two teams doing something relatively unexpected (which almost always happens in the top 20) to push one of those guys to 22.

 

I think they have the ammo to pull it off

 

 

I agree, but you are dealing with uncertainty.  There are a couple pivot points in the draft.  I think 8 is one, where it only takes 1 guy sneaking in and you are looking at one of the 3 "blue chip" position players or one of the 4 QBs, otherwise you are looking at the same tier as 12.  22 certainly feels right about another one, where it only takes 1 or 2 guys sneaking in and you feel very good about the pick, but if everything falls like it should you are basically taking the same level guy as pick ~45.

 

Unless the Giants are going QB (and I'm convinced they are committed enough to Eli and intrigued enough by Webb they are willing to pass), I don't think they are going to pass up 5 or 6 day 1/2 picks regardless of how the tiers fall.

[dave mcbride]

20 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

Albert Breer: NFL Draft Rumors Start in Cleveland
Late first-round picks lack value. The other day, I was spit-balling on a potential Bills-Giants swap with a team exec, who said to me, “The problem is that the 22nd pick might as well be in the third round.” He was exaggerating, but only a little bit. The consensus I’ve heard is the difference between 22 and 52 is minimal this year, which is part of why the Colts did well to land a couple high second-rounders in their trade with the Jets.

That has been my worry too. Good quote.

[What a Tuel]

If 22 is practically a 3rd rounder (exaggeration), then what is 37 and 49 that the Colts got? 4th rounders?

[Chuck Wagon]

12 minutes ago, kdiggz said:

I saw this too.  A lot of people only see as many as 20 1st round worthy picks in this draft.  Pick 22 might as well be a 2nd rounder

 

 

But devils advocate says if you are the Giants or the Browns and you trade down from 1/2/4, you are going to be sitting on more than enough later picks to move up to get one of those "20" 1st rounders.  You turn 1 "1st rounder" into 2 and have more picks beyond that.

[dave mcbride]

13 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

I speculated a couple of days ago that it may be better to move up from 22 into the low teens if it's possible at all.  I don't think pick 12 vs ~7 is the problem, I think it's the other picks.  It also gives some perspective on the Cordy Glenn trade, the Bills did great to move from 21 into the 2nd level of prospects by giving up a guy who seemingly had checked out when the ink was dry on his deal.

 

At 12 you know you are getting one of Ward / Edmonds / Smith / Fitzpatrick / James, it drops off quick after that.

Maybe trade 22, 53, and 96 to GB for #14? It then becomes more conceivable to trade 12, 14, 65 and next year's second to move into the top 5.

2 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

If 22 is practically a 3rd rounder (exaggeration), then what is 37 and 49 that the Colts got? 4th rounders?

It's two instead of 1. Plus 6 is way better than 12.

[Chuck Wagon]

11 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

If 22 is practically a 3rd rounder (exaggeration), then what is 37 and 49 that the Colts got? 4th rounders?

 

 

No.  The belief is there's not much difference between 22 and 49.  There's been quotes there's ~60-70 "starters" in the draft but ~20 "1st rounders".

[thebandit27]

6 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

I agree, but you are dealing with uncertainty.  There are a couple pivot points in the draft.  I think 8 is one, where it only takes 1 guy sneaking in and you are looking at one of the 3 "blue chip" position players or one of the 4 QBs, otherwise you are looking at the same tier as 12.  22 certainly feels right about another one, where it only takes 1 or 2 guys sneaking in and you feel very good about the pick, but if everything falls like it should you are basically taking the same level guy as pick ~45.

 

Unless the Giants are going QB (and I'm convinced they are committed enough to Eli and intrigued enough by Webb they are willing to pass), I don't think they are going to pass up 5 or 6 day 1/2 picks regardless of how the tiers fall.

 

Agreed.

 

3 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

But devils advocate says if you are the Giants or the Browns and you trade down from 1/2/4, you are going to be sitting on more than enough later picks to move up to get one of those "20" 1st rounders.  You turn 1 "1st rounder" into 2 and have more picks beyond that.

 

Agreed again

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

 

No.  The belief is there's not much difference between 22 and 49.  There's been quotes there's ~60-70 "starters" in the draft but ~20 "1st rounders".

I've heard 17-18 first rounders at most. I think it wouldn't be a bad idea considering a trade up with GB, a team which always seems to find good value in the 40-100 range (think of all of their second and third round receivers who produce like crazy - Nelson, Jennings, Cobb, Adams).

Edited April 12, 2018 by dave mcbride

[What a Tuel]

Just now, Chuck Wagon said:

No.  The belief is there's not much difference between 22 and 49.  There's been quotes there's ~60-70 "starters" in the draft but ~20 "1st rounders".

 

That seems silly, but what do I know. I feel like many teams would instantly trade 49 and 37 to move up to 22. 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, What a Tuel said:

 

That seems silly, but what do I know. I feel like many teams would instantly trade 49 and 37 to move up to 22. 

From everything I've read, there really aren't 22 first round talents this year, and there are a lot of players graded as second rounders. 2 second round-graded players are better than one in terms of your odds of achieving success. You just aren't finding an elite prospect at 22. 

[thebandit27]

9 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I've heard 17-18 first rounders at most. I think it wouldn't be a bad idea considering a trade up with GB, a team which always seems to find good value in the 40-100 range (think of all of their second and third round receivers who produce like crazy - Nelson, Jennings, Cobb, Adams).

 

4 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

From everything I've read, there really aren't 22 first round talents this year, and there are a lot of players graded as second rounders. 2 second round-graded players are better than one in terms of your odds of achieving success. You just aren't finding an elite prospect at 22. 

 

Not that anyone should base things on me, but I have exactly 22 first-round grades this year.  I have 38 2nd round grades and 73 day 2 grades overall.

[billsfan5121]

32 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I've heard 17-18 first rounders at most. I think it wouldn't be a bad idea considering a trade up with GB, a team which always seems to find good value in the 40-100 range (think of all of their second and third round receivers who produce like crazy - Nelson, Jennings, Cobb, Adams).

 

I didn’t read everything that led to this statement, but it got me thinking.  You mention all these 2nd rounders GB has had who turned out very good.  The common demoninator with them all is their qb.  

 

With that said, if we get a real qb, I would bet our draft picks all suddenly become better.  What I mean is this....as we stand now, we need blue chippers across the board because we have all these holes.  If we hit on a qb, I think every draft pick after that suddenly doesn’t have to be blue chip prospects.  We can start to truly count on 5th round receivers being contributors.  We don’t need to trade up for Watkins because our qb can make any wr produce.  Our defense doesn’t have to be the 2000 Ravens, because we can score points.  

 

I know none of that is groundbreaking, but I feel like all future drafts instantly get better, or at the worst, we are less dependent on them.  Example being the Colts, who I feel many have said haven’t drafted well in the 2000s, yet won a SB and went to another because they had Manning.  

[dave mcbride]

25 minutes ago, billsfan5121 said:

 

I didn’t read everything that led to this statement, but it got me thinking.  You mention all these 2nd rounders GB has had who turned out very good.  The common demoninator with them all is their qb.  

 

With that said, if we get a real qb, I would bet our draft picks all suddenly become better.  What I mean is this....as we stand now, we need blue chippers across the board because we have all these holes.  If we hit on a qb, I think every draft pick after that suddenly doesn’t have to be blue chip prospects.  We can start to truly count on 5th round receivers being contributors.  We don’t need to trade up for Watkins because our qb can make any wr produce.  Our defense doesn’t have to be the 2000 Ravens, because we can score points.  

 

I know none of that is groundbreaking, but I feel like all future drafts instantly get better, or at the worst, we are less dependent on them.  Example being the Colts, who I feel many have said haven’t drafted well in the 2000s, yet won a SB and went to another because they had Manning.  

Precisely. I agree 100 percent. That said, the Colts actually made a number of good picks - Edgerrin James, Reggie Wayne (helped because of Manning, of course, but still a great player), Freeney, Mathis, Sanders, and Tarik Glenn (also helped by Manning). Both Freeney and Mathis are borderline hall of famers.

52 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

 

Not that anyone should base things on me, but I have exactly 22 first-round grades this year.  I have 38 2nd round grades and 73 day 2 grades overall.

Maybe you're just an easy grader! 

Edited April 12, 2018 by dave mcbride

[Mat68]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

 

Not that anyone should base things on me, but I have exactly 22 first-round grades this year.  I have 38 2nd round grades and 73 day 2 grades overall.

22 is still better than 53,56.  You have a higher probability of selecting the player you like at 22 than at 33.  With the amount of Qbs that are getting drafted in rd 1 there will be talented guys at 22.  Or Buffalo keeps the crappy 22 pick and trades both 2s and 3s picks up an extra 4th.  

Edited April 12, 2018 by Mat68

[PIZ]

Where does Marcus Davenport project?

 

 

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, PIZ said:

Where does Marcus Davenport project?

 

 

I think 12 is in the ballpark.

[BrooklynBills]

1 minute ago, PIZ said:

Where does Marcus Davenport project?

 

 

12   ; )

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, PIZ said:

Where does Marcus Davenport project?

 

 

Somewhere in the top 15.