Jets just traded with Colts for #3 pick in first round

[Heitz]

5 minutes ago, BillsFan4 said:

After a single draft, Can we really say that he is no better or different than the previous regime...

 

No, but many will!  The draft (then the season), can’t get here fast enough.

[Reed83HOF]

1 minute ago, BillsFan4 said:

 

Is that really fair to say? 

 

This is Beane & his front office/personnel/scouting staff's very first draft with the Bills.

 

After a single draft, Can we really say that he is no better or different than the previous regime who were not aggressive in finding a QB in at least 4 years (and really the entire time Whaley was here starting in 2010)? 

 

Do you think most GM's are able to land their franchise QB in their very first draft with a new team? 

 

Another thought - how many GMs trade away the farm for a QB in their very first draft with a team?  seems like a huge gamble to make very shortly into his tenure as a first time GM. 

 

 

Look, I want a franchise QB as much as everyone else here, I guarantee it. But I'm not going to write Beane off if he doesn't trade away his entire draft in year 1 of a rebuild, and his very first ever draft as a GM. 

I probably came off a bit harsh, but with the moves McD & Beane have made so far regarding QB (passing on guys last year to load for this) and they don't aggressively go after their guy, it is not a good look. Also, consider that if the Jets turn out to actually get a guy who looks good; these guys are going to be toast in the eyes of many fans; just like past regimes. Peeps can use the narrative all they like that this is a different team, much like Terry only viewed it as a couple years with out playoffs, but that doesn't make it any less true for the fans who have been following this team for longer than Pegs owned them or longer than McD & Beane have been there. The optics of, us saying he took our highest rated QB at 12 and let's say 2 or 3 others a good and we sat pat - they will get eviscerated over it...Fans will fly off the handle if they trade up for Manziel's, but in a qb rich draft if they go for a guy and miss - it happens. 

 

This is almost a free draft in order to make a move up, where you can give draft capital up and not really have to give much up in future years, it's the ideal time to take a shot. If they stay pat or wait until Rudolph and he sucks, you would conceivably have to trade down next year in order to grab more picks for the following 2020 draft. The 2019 draft is shaping up for your Geno Smith EJ type draft. Are you prepared to go 2 more seasons without an answer and then wing and prayer it? 2019 looks to have great pass rushing talent, I don't think you want to trade down there. Stars are aligned for this year without damaging the future years much at all. Plus we have $100 mil in cap space in 2019. Sell out for your top QBthis year, fill holes 2019 FA, score pass rushing help in RD1 next season and see where you end up.

[Boatdrinks]

19 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

I probably came off a bit harsh, but with the moves McD & Beane have made so far regarding QB (passing on guys last year to load for this) and they don't aggressively go after their guy, it is not a good look. Also, consider that if the Jets turn out to actually get a guy who looks good; these guys are going to be toast in the eyes of many fans; just like past regimes. Peeps can use the narrative all they like that this is a different team, much like Terry only viewed it as a couple years with out playoffs, but that doesn't make it any less true for the fans who have been following this team for longer than Pegs owned them or longer than McD & Beane have been there. The optics of, us saying he took our highest rated QB at 12 and let's say 2 or 3 others a good and we sat pat - they will get eviscerated over it...Fans will fly off the handle if they trade up for Manziel's, but in a qb rich draft if they go for a guy and miss - it happens. 

 

This is almost a free draft in order to make a move up, where you can give draft capital up and not really have to give much up in future years, it's the ideal time to take a shot. If they stay pat or wait until Rudolph and he sucks, you would conceivably have to trade down next year in order to grab more picks for the following 2020 draft. The 2019 draft is shaping up for your Geno Smith EJ type draft. Are you prepared to go 2 more seasons without an answer and then wing and prayer it? 2019 looks to have great pass rushing talent, I don't think you want to trade down there. Stars are aligned for this year without damaging the future years much at all. Plus we have $100 mil in cap space in 2019. Sell out for your top QBthis year, fill holes 2019 FA, score pass rushing help in RD1 next season and see where you end up.

That cap space projection will go down considerably. The Bills don't have many players under contract right now. Space will be eaten up quickly. They will be in better shape in 2019 than 2018 for sure, but we'll see by how much. 

 Yes, the Bills want to trade up. It doesn't guarantee that a team with a pick in the area the Bills need will be willing to move back that far. We saw that with the Colts pick. It's more likely at this point that any trade would come after the first round has started. There may be some preliminary discussions, but aside from pick 2 ( which may not be available) no pick would provide certainty that the Bills target player would be available. The best chance for that was the Colts pick at 3. The Jets knew the Bills could jump ahead of them, so they gave the Colts what they wanted. Pick 12 isn't a strong position to be trading from. If a QB  the Bills want is  on the board after the Jets pick, the Bills will look to CLE pick at 4. If that doesn't work then they'll see if the player is there after DEN pick at 5. That would bring the Colts back in play at 6. That's a part of the reason the Colts wanted the Jets pick . There may be other teams looking to move up to the 6th spot for a QB. That wouldn't happen if they had settled on the Bills pick at 12. It was a very crafty move by Ballard to get 3 picks from the Jets for moving back a mere 3 spots. The Bills were never getting the Colts pick at 3 if the Jets were willing to play ball. 

Edited March 19, 2018 by Boatdrinks

[Reed83HOF]

2 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

That cap space projection will go down considerably. The Bills don't have many players under contract right now. Space will be eaten up quickly. They will be in better shape in 2019 than 2018 for sure, but we'll see by how much. 

 Yes, the Bills want to trade up. It doesn't guarantee that a team with a pick in the area the Bills need will be willing to move back that far. We saw that with the Colts pick. It's more likely at this point that any trade would come after the first round has started. There may be some preliminary discussions, but aside from pick 2 ( which may not be available) no pick would provide certainty that the Bills target player would be available. The best chance for that was the Colts pick at 3. The Jets knew the Bills could jump ahead of them, so they gave the Colts what they wanted. Pick 12 isn't a strong position to be trading from. If a QB  the Bills want is  on the board after the Jets pick, the Bills will look to CLE pick at 4. If that doesn't work then they'll see if the player is there after DEN pick at 5. That would bring the Colts back in play at 6. That's a part of the reason the Colts wanted the Jets pick . There may be other teams looking to move up to the 6th spot for a QB. That wouldn't happen if they had settled on the Bills pick at 12. It was a very crafty move by Ballard to get 3 picks from the Jets for moving back a mere 3 spots. The Bills were never getting the Colts pick at 3 if the Jets were willing to play ball. 

 

I agree with cap space, but we can fill quite a few holes, plus with all the dead cap being gone - it will be a huge boost.

 

Check out the MMQB thread I just started, Don't rule out a trade back up yet and don't rule the colts out...

[CountDorkula]

On 3/17/2018 at 10:53 AM, oldmanfan said:

Just stop.  The Bills have ammunition to move to 2 if they want

And if the Giants don't want to move?

 

It's what I and many others are saying. You can get all the draft capital you want, but you need another team to dance with. The Giants may not want to dance. 

[Chuck Wagon]

10 hours ago, USABuffaloFan said:

You will be more frustrated if Buffalo calls the Giants gives up 12, 22, next years 1st, 53 and 65. That would be the cost minimum because we are at 12. Cleveland will take one of the 2 QB's Buffalo is interested in leaving my guess Darnold (small hands are a killer). Where does that leave us, more than likely no middle linebacker worth anything, most likely McCarron or Peterman win the job this year anyway. We gave our 1st next year so losing would do nothing for us. We are not moving up in this draft anymore. Beane would be fired if his QB he picked doesn't start and win year 1. Don't tell me this fan base wouldn't turn on Beane if it became obvious that the 1st pick QB that Buffalo gave up everything for might be the 3rd best on the roster. Just not worth it!

Stupid is as stupid does. So you want to follow what the Jets do in this draft, ONE UP them with the 12th pick, hmmmmm. 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, CountDorkula said:

And if the Giants don't want to move?

 

It's what I and many others are saying. You can get all the draft capital you want, but you need another team to dance with. The Giants may not want to dance. 

Then they don't make the move.  They tried to make the move with the Colts and the Colts wanted to stay top ten after the trade.  They apparently can move to 6 and that may help them move to 2. 

 

I honestly don't know how many times this needs to be said, but it all depends on what Beane and his guys think of these prospects.  If they see a guy they have to have, say Rosen, then he will have the necessary conversations with Gettleman and/or other teams to do all he can to get that done.  He has spent a lot of time and activity being able to make a move like that.  If he does not see a guy he has to have, then he would be stupid to use up a bunch of picks to get a guy just to get a guy.  He could maybe move up a few spots if, for example, he wants Jackson or Allen and he's afraid a team may jump ahead.  Or he can stay put at 12 and get the guy he wants, depending on what his board looks like.

 

I started the you don't know squat thread yesterday for a reason.  We don't know what Beane wants to do just yet, because we have no idea right now what his board looks like, and who he might want to take.  He knows, and probably has known for a while, if he wants to ensure he gets a guy he has to have then he'd need to get the 1 or 2 in the draft.  Three wasn't ever going to get him there; at best the Jets get their pick of QBs if Cleveland or the Giants each pass on a QB, or they get the third guy if the teams ahead of them each take a QB.  Al this weekend did was confirm what Beane likely already knew, that he has to get to 1 or 2.  And that is only if there is a guy he sees as a can't miss prospect.

Does anyone here think any of these guys is that kind of player?  I have my doubts personally.  Which is why I think they actually let the draft play out.  Someone will drop, they always do.  And I suspect they take say a Jackson or Allen if he drops, assuming their grades are roughly equal for all these guys, and they make move up a couple spots to get that guy.  Just maybe not to 1 or 2.

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Greensleeves]

On 3/17/2018 at 11:50 AM, Rockinon said:

Mortgaging the whole team for one pick is fail thinking. Jets are going to suck this year.

This is just wishful thinking. The Jets had $97 million in cap space and signed the best corner, a solid running back, a couple linebackers, a center - all young and in their first contract or just starting their second contract. Jet's haven't had a franchise QB since Namath and you think we're mortgaging our future? We had an extra second round pick and we didn't give up our first rounder for next year. Jets could still jump to Cleveland's #1 pick - screw the Giants. Also, history shows that picking a first round QB has a 67% chance of being a solid starter, compared to around 30% in the second round and it just goes south after that. Jets could pick the wrong guy - not like they are picking first, but I'm glad they made the move and didn't risk 4 QBs going in front of them, which would have been possible: Cleveland, Giants, (trade in Colts spot) and Broncos. The GM would have been canned if that happened. Bills will probably get to #6 and get a top guy if the Giants pick Barkely and Cleveland doesn't trade out.

[26CornerBlitz]

3-19: Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News with Howard and Jeremy (8:13)

[Nitro]

On 3/17/2018 at 11:01 PM, Boatdrinks said:

Those were early rumors. We'll never really know what transpired yesterday/ today but Ballard said he wasn't looking to trade out of the top ten. The Jets may have been a late addition to the party , and that pick at 6 trumped what the Bills could offer this year. 

They are already talking about trading back and garnering more picks. Ballard said it will have to be a sweet deal to move back and it is not out of the question.

[BillsFan4]

10 hours ago, Reed83HOF said:

I probably came off a bit harsh, but with the moves McD & Beane have made so far regarding QB (passing on guys last year to load for this) and they don't aggressively go after their guy, it is not a good look. Also, consider that if the Jets turn out to actually get a guy who looks good; these guys are going to be toast in the eyes of many fans; just like past regimes. Peeps can use the narrative all they like that this is a different team, much like Terry only viewed it as a couple years with out playoffs, but that doesn't make it any less true for the fans who have been following this team for longer than Pegs owned them or longer than McD & Beane have been there. The optics of, us saying he took our highest rated QB at 12 and let's say 2 or 3 others a good and we sat pat - they will get eviscerated over it...Fans will fly off the handle if they trade up for Manziel's, but in a qb rich draft if they go for a guy and miss - it happens. 

 

This is almost a free draft in order to make a move up, where you can give draft capital up and not really have to give much up in future years, it's the ideal time to take a shot. If they stay pat or wait until Rudolph and he sucks, you would conceivably have to trade down next year in order to grab more picks for the following 2020 draft. The 2019 draft is shaping up for your Geno Smith EJ type draft. Are you prepared to go 2 more seasons without an answer and then wing and prayer it? 2019 looks to have great pass rushing talent, I don't think you want to trade down there. Stars are aligned for this year without damaging the future years much at all. Plus we have $100 mil in cap space in 2019. Sell out for your top QBthis year, fill holes 2019 FA, score pass rushing help in RD1 next season and see where you end up.

 

They wont be toast in my eyes. You can only control what you can control. There are so many different scenarios that can play out in the coming years. Not everything depends on trading everything away in this draft to get a QB - and I might add a QB draft that's strength lies in its depth.

 

The Jets were desperate. From all the stories being written, Maccagnan basically had to land a top 4 QB this year. His job depended on it. They sold out and went all in on it over a year ago. Now they set the price so ridiculously high that the Bills may not be willing to match it.

 

I can't blame Beane if he does not want to make such a massive overpayment in his very first ever draft as a GM. If he misses, or that player isn't a franchise changing talent, he's likely toast and never gets another GM job. Where as if he only trades up slightly or takes a shot at 12 in a deep QB draft, he's not putting ALL of his chips in already in his first ever draft. 

 

 

I dont see it as a free draft to move up either. The Bills are in year 1 of a rebuild with huge holes all over the team. They traded away numerous talented players to acquire all of these draft picks. They were by no means free, and they opened up more holes on this team. 

You trade away this whole draft (basically) to move up, you are betting everything on a rookie QB. If they stay out and use those picks to fill a bunch of holes, maybe it opens up a trade-up in the next couple years because you now have a more complete team and you can more easily gamble on giving away extra picks. Maybe you trade up for Drew Lock next year (who set an SEC record for TDs throw last season with a ridiculous 44 TD passes!) or some other QB who emerges. There was no Drew Lock in 2013, so I wouldn't call it an EJ type draft just yet. 

 

 

Look, I am still all for trading up if that's what the Bills choose to do. I just don't know if it's possible anymore. The Jets set a stupid high price, and we still have the Broncos ahead of us who may be willing to move up yet. When looking at the draft value charts and what the Jets gave up, To have any chance at trading to 2, you are easily looking at giving up the top 3 rounds of this draft (which is 5 top 65 picks and 6 in the top 90) plus a 1st or 2nd next year, maybe even more. 

Theres been lots of rumors going around that the Giants don't want to trade back out of the top of the draft, either. That they want a franchise changing talent from the top of this draft. So what can you do if the Giants aren't willing to trade back to 12? You can try to move up twice, but now we're talking even more picks. 

 

I want a franchise QB as bad as every Bills fan. I guarantee it. I haven't seen one in a Bills uniform since the days of Jim Kelly. It's been far too long. But that's not Brandon Beane's fault. He hasn't even had 1 draft with the Bills yet. I'm not going to burn him at the stake if he doesn't recklessly trade up in his first ever draft. 

Plus I still have hope that we can land our franchise guy at 12, or with a slight trade up the board. I don't think our ONLY chance is a top 2/3 QB from this draft. We could very well get a top 2 QB from this draft at 12. 

[Bills Pimpin']

I promise you that Beane is not going to overpay for a draft spot. He will move up if he believes the value of what he gives = the value of the spot. The Jets gave up the equivalent of the overall first round pick to move up 3 spots. That is absolutely getting it shoved right in the ass. Complete panic move. 

Come draft day, if the player Beane covets is still around at 5 or 6 or 7 etc., Beane may make a move, but he is trading for a PLAYER, not a DRAFT SPOT. 

 

Besides that there is not one person in their right mind that would bet their life that Rosen or Darnold will be better than say Jackson or Rudolph. It's probable, but not a certainty. Not certain enough to give 3 second round picks when you might have gotten one anyway. 

 

2018 First 3 round Draft Picks: Jets 3, 72.

                                                       Bills 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96. 

 

From MMQB:

STARTING PLAYERS IN THE 2018 NFL DRAFT INTERLUDE.Interesting question. Queried about how many starting-caliber players they felt were in this draft, six scouting people or GMs over the weekend came back with these figures: 35, “40 to 50,” “about 70,” 73, “75-ish,” 83 and 111. I asked because I wanted to figure out whether it made sense for the Colts to try to trade down one more time.

ASTERISK TO STARTING PLAYER INTERLUDE. One of those teams said if you considered “situational starters” like third corners or slot corners, slot receivers or slotback/receiver types like Christian McCaffrey, he’d add 32 players to his team’s total.

 

Jets: Josh McCown 1 year 10 million

Bills: AJ McCarron 2 years 10 million

 

Bills are destroying the Jets this off season up to this point and it's not even close.

[Greensleeves]

7 hours ago, Bills Pimpin' said:

I promise you that Beane is not going to overpay for a draft spot. He will move up if he believes the value of what he gives = the value of the spot. The Jets gave up the equivalent of the overall first round pick to move up 3 spots. That is absolutely getting it shoved right in the ass. Complete panic move. 

Come draft day, if the player Beane covets is still around at 5 or 6 or 7 etc., Beane may make a move, but he is trading for a PLAYER, not a DRAFT SPOT. 

 

Besides that there is not one person in their right mind that would bet their life that Rosen or Darnold will be better than say Jackson or Rudolph. It's probable, but not a certainty. Not certain enough to give 3 second round picks when you might have gotten one anyway. 

 

2018 First 3 round Draft Picks: Jets 3, 72.

                                                       Bills 12, 22, 53, 56, 65, 96. 

 

From MMQB:

STARTING PLAYERS IN THE 2018 NFL DRAFT INTERLUDE.Interesting question. Queried about how many starting-caliber players they felt were in this draft, six scouting people or GMs over the weekend came back with these figures: 35, “40 to 50,” “about 70,” 73, “75-ish,” 83 and 111. I asked because I wanted to figure out whether it made sense for the Colts to try to trade down one more time.

ASTERISK TO STARTING PLAYER INTERLUDE. One of those teams said if you considered “situational starters” like third corners or slot corners, slot receivers or slotback/receiver types like Christian McCaffrey, he’d add 32 players to his team’s total.

 

Jets: Josh McCown 1 year 10 million

Bills: AJ McCarron 2 years 10 million

 

Bills are destroying the Jets this off season up to this point and it's not even close.

Yeah, right.

 

DBs: Trumaine Johnson, resigned Claiborne to add to Adams and Maye in the secondary

Crowell at RB - 4.2 yards per carry

QB: McCown to mentor a top young QB you guys probably won't be getting ;), Bridgewater - both on 1 year deals. Next year rookie takes over and we cash in on Bridgewater if he plays well to recoup some picks. If rookie plays great we can cut Bridgewater and it only costs us $500,000. We had over 90 million and you're thinking 5 million is a big deal? McCown job is to mentor the young QB we pick at 3 (or 2). Best case scenario is that Browns trade into the #2 spot with the Giants from #4. Jets are a lock to get Rosen if that happens. That would mean Giants want Nelson or Chubb and grab some extra picks and still get who they want. 

Upgrade at center

Upgrade at linebacker

Depth on D-line

And we're not done yet. 

Plus, we're getting Q back as our #1 receiver

Top 3 QB in the draft - quite possibly top 2. Jet's will dominate the division for the next 10+ years once the young QB takes over. You guys had your time, Pats are coming to the end of theirs, Dolphins had theirs - this Jets team will take over in a year for a decade. 

 

Once we get rid of Bowles then we'll really be dangerous. A new owner would be great too, but that's much tougher to get.

[Bills Pimpin']

1 hour ago, Greensleeves said:

Yeah, right.

 

DBs: Trumaine Johnson, resigned Claiborne to add to Adams and Maye in the secondary

Crowell at RB - 4.2 yards per carry

QB: McCown to mentor a top young QB you guys probably won't be getting ;), Bridgewater - both on 1 year deals. Next year rookie takes over and we cash in on Bridgewater if he plays well to recoup some picks. If rookie plays great we can cut Bridgewater and it only costs us $500,000. We had over 90 million and you're thinking 5 million is a big deal? McCown job is to mentor the young QB we pick at 3 (or 2). Best case scenario is that Browns trade into the #2 spot with the Giants from #4. Jets are a lock to get Rosen if that happens. That would mean Giants want Nelson or Chubb and grab some extra picks and still get who they want. 

Upgrade at center

Upgrade at linebacker

Depth on D-line

And we're not done yet. 

Plus, we're getting Q back as our #1 receiver

Top 3 QB in the draft - quite possibly top 2. Jet's will dominate the division for the next 10+ years once the young QB takes over. You guys had your time, Pats are coming to the end of theirs, Dolphins had theirs - this Jets team will take over in a year for a decade. 

 

Once we get rid of Bowles then we'll really be dangerous. A new owner would be great too, but that's much tougher to get.

How nice of a Jets fan to come visit. It's great you have such optimism for your plan B after Cousins left you waiting at the alter. It actually seems quite crazy to put your faith in the final Hail Mary move by a regime that has done a miserable job for three years and a 21 year old Dbag QB from California who you may or may not get. You will get a QB, that is true, it may not be the one you want but keep the faith in your "best case scenario" possibilities, because that is what you gave up 3 2nd rounders for... A possibility. And don't worry about getting rid of Bowles, it won't be that hard when the new GM comes in with his new staff. Just hope he likes that shiny new quarterback you just paid for. 

Edited March 20, 2018 by Bills Pimpin'