List of every 1st round trade for Quarterbacks over the last 10 years

[/dev/null]

1 minute ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

Thats fine. I am saying those picks outside of Wood sucked. This draft has QBs. Go get one

2006 and 2009 had QBs too (Young, Leinhart, Cutler, Freeman, Sanchez)

 

I remember TSW had it's share of Young and Leinhart fanboys.  Rather ironic that they both would eventually end up with the Bills as camp fodder

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

2006 and 2009 had QBs too (Young, Leinhart, Cutler, Freeman, Sanchez)

 

I remember TSW had it's share of Young and Leinhart fanboys.  Rather ironic that they both would eventually end up with the Bills as camp fodder

 

And it was before the time I really watched college football but I can't imagine now knowing what I look for and value in prospects that either Young or Leinart would have floated my boat. I can imagine me having Cutler as my #1 QB with a mid 1st grade... but that is all guesswork really. 

 

I don't think that class was comparable to this one. 

 

If I can get Josh Rosen at #2 I am absolutely willing to pay the price to get there. 

[OldTimer1960]

8 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

Well, let me put it this way, do you think Chicago would make the same trade today that they did a year ago for Trubisky?

Same could have been said of Goff after his rookie year.  Most  of these guys need a few years and some talent around them to look good.

 

Many fans give up and turn nasty on these young QBs way too early.  This is one of my big concerns with the idea of giving up a lot to “go get” a QB.

 

There is one QB who looks ready to step in early- Rosen, but even he will struggle with little talent around him.  Darnold is young with not a lot of experience.  Same can be said of Allen with the additional concern about his accuracy in college (mitigated by his weak supporting cast).  Mayfield looks to be a gamer, but he had GREAT talent around him and would not here.

 

I think Lamar Jackson is going to look good early due to his insane running ability.  I don’t know if he will pan out long-term (like Deshaun Watson) once teams take away their running option.

 

i still don’t see why Mason Rudolph is an afterthought for many.  I think he has just about the same chance of success as any of the others beyond Rosen.  I also like Mike White - go watch all of his game cut-ups and tell me he doesn’t have good ability.

 

Patience by fans and media should be the order of the day for whichever QB they draft.

[BillsFan2313]

18 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

2006 and 2009 had QBs too (Young, Leinhart, Cutler, Freeman, Sanchez)

 

I remember TSW had it's share of Young and Leinhart fanboys.  Rather ironic that they both would eventually end up with the Bills as camp fodder

 

Thats your choice if you want to lump Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield with noodle arm Leinhart and Young. Im not. 

[OldTimer1960]

25 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

You could spread your picks out a little bit so it won't hurt that much this draft.  I could easily see the Bills giving up their two 1sts, a 2nd, a 3rd (#65), and a 2nd next year.  You then get your quarterback, a 2nd and 3rd round pick this year.

No, you get what you HOPE is your QB.

[Victory Formation]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Same could have been said of Goff after his rookie year.  Most  of these guys need a few years and some talent around them to look good.

 

Many fans give up and turn nasty on these young QBs way too early.  This is one of my big concerns with the idea of giving up a lot to “go get” a QB.

 

There is one QB who looks ready to step in early- Rosen, but even he will struggle with little talent around him.  Darnold is young with not a lot of experience.  Same can be said of Allen with the additional concern about his accuracy in college (mitigated by his weak supporting cast).  Mayfield looks to be a gamer, but he had GREAT talent around him and would not here.

 

I think Lamar Jackson is going to look good early due to his insane running ability.  I don’t know if he will pan out long-term (like Deshaun Watson) once teams take away their running option.

 

i still don’t see why Mason Rudolph is an afterthought for many.  I think he has just about the same chance of success as any of the others beyond Rosen.  I also like Mike White - go watch all of his game cut-ups and tell me he doesn’t have good ability.

 

Patience by fans and media should be the order of the day for whichever QB they draft.

I love Rudolph, where will he go though? I've seen him go as late as the 4th round in some mocks, but I think the latest he goes is the top of the 2nd. Am I overvaluing him?

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

No, you get what you HOPE is your QB.

Correct.  Which is the case with every rookie QB ever drafted.

[/dev/null]

2 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

Thats your choice if you want to lump Rosen, Darnold and Mayfield with noodle arm Leinhart and Young. Im not. 

 

My point is that we go thru this QB hype almost every year.  And usually the franchise QB that we absolutely positively have to trade up for flames out

 

Except for 2004 with Ben Roethlesberger and 2005 when we would have been able to draft Aaron Rodgers if Donahoe hadn't traded up for JP Losman the year before

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, NewDayBills said:

I love Rudolph, where will he go though? I've seen him go as late as the 4th round in some mocks, but I think the latest he goes is the top of the 2nd. Am I overvaluing him?

I think that if they like him they should take him at 21.  I could even support a small trade up for him.  To me, I don’t see any worse prospect than any of the others.  His arm may not be quite as strong, but it seems good enough to me and nobody would say that Brady has the best arm in the league.

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Correct.  Which is the case with every rookie QB ever drafted.

Agreed, so do you agree that the risk is less/ margin of error is greater for the Browns who have to give up nothing to take their shot at 1 AND still have 4, 33 and 35 to get very good prospects vs. trading 21, 22, 53 and next year’s first to take a shot AFTER the Browns pick?

[Alphadawg7]

8 hours ago, NewDayBills said:

Out of the teams that traded up for 1st round QBs in the past 10 years:

 

2017:

Chicago for Mitchell Trubisky

Kansas City for Patrick Mahomes

Houston for Deshaun Watson

 

2016:

Los Angeles for Jared Goff

Philadelphia for Carson Wentz

 

2015: no one.

 

 

2014:

Johnny Manziel

Teddy Bridgewater

 

2013: no one.

 

2012:

Washington gave up the farm for RG3.

 

2011: nobody.

 

2010: nobody.

 

2009:

Tampa Bay traded to #17 for Josh Freeman.

 

2008: Nobody

 

So out of the 9 QBs taken:

33% have been great.

(Wentz, Goff, Watson)

 

44% have been busts.

(Freeman, RG3, Trubisky, Manziel)

 

22% the jury is still out on.

(Bridgewater, Mahomes)

 

The scary part of this list is that there are actually no real true sustained hits...YET.  Agree, Watson, Wentz and Goff are all exciting young players right now.  However, its way too early to crown Watson, he had a few hot games, but so have a plethora of other NFL QB's, including one you listed here like RG3 that never sustained success.  He is also coming off his 2nd torn ACL now too that he has to over come.  I like Watson and pulling for him as I really like watching him play, but way too early to be a "hit" as not enough of a sample size and now dealing with yet another serious knee injury.

 

Goff and Wentz made great strides in their 2nd years, but even they are early to really know if they are truly a hit.  Wasn't that long ago people like RG3, Kapernick, Tannehill, etc were all the future in the NFL and got big contracts just to flame out before they were 30 (Kap and RG3 aren't even in the league anymore).  By no means am I predicting that, and in fact I do think Wentz has top 5 QB potential, just stating that all the best examples of hits that you called "great" are from last 2 years and haven't had more than a partial season of great play really.  Wentz to me is the prize of the two, I am still skeptical on Goff and fear he was the product of the genius of McVay and all the weapons they have.

 

Everyone else has mostly been busts with the exception of Mahomes who has barely played.  Bridgewater was ok, not great, before the injuries started happening, so he is a really big question mark...can he get back from the injuries is hard enough..then he still needs to be better than he was before he was hurt.  A lot to ask after the gruesome injuries he had.  

 

I still am very much hoping we trade up, and the guy I personally want the most is Baker.  But its still a scary list you provided with few examples to feel good about other than the new exciting ones who just haven't had enough time to cement their career paths yet.

 

 

[Doc Brown]

11 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Agreed, so do you agree that the risk is less/ margin of error is greater for the Browns who have to give up nothing to take their shot at 1 AND still have 4, 33 and 35 to get very good prospects vs. trading 21, 22, 53 and next year’s first to take a shot AFTER the Browns pick?

I could care less about whether our margin of error is less than the Browns if we move up.  I think the biggest difference between those that want to stay put and those fans who want to trade up is your opinion of the top QB's in this draft class.

 

1.)  I'm thinking 21, 22, 53, 65, and next year's 2nd would do it.

2.)  None of the free agents or Foles are capable of being your franchise QB (imo).

3.)  I think this is a special QB class.  Rosen and Mayfield I believe are highly likely to be great picks and franchise QB's imo.

4.)  Without Beane's forward thinking we would only have one 2nd and one 3rd right now.  We have the draft capital to move up and still have a 2nd and 3rd rounder this year.

5.)  We'll have comp picks next year that could easily allow us to either move into the 2nd round if need be and continue to build this team around our franchise QB. 

[BillsFan2313]

21 minutes ago, /dev/null said:

 

My point is that we go thru this QB hype almost every year.  And usually the franchise QB that we absolutely positively have to trade up for flames out

 

Except for 2004 with Ben Roethlesberger and 2005 when we would have been able to draft Aaron Rodgers if Donahoe hadn't traded up for JP Losman the year before

 

Who? There was a rumor the Bills loved Wentz. Last year, Watson. If the Browns take Barkley at 1, which seems likely, the Bills have an opportunity to identify there favorite QB in the class, and go get him. This seems to be a rare opportunity. 

[OldTimer1960]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

I could care less about whether our margin of error is less than the Browns if we move up.  I think the biggest difference between those that want to stay put and those fans who want to trade up is your opinion of the top QB's in this draft class.

 

1.)  I'm thinking 21, 22, 53, 65, and next year's 2nd would do it.

2.)  None of the free agents or Foles are capable of being your franchise QB (imo).

3.)  I think this is a special QB class.  Rosen and Mayfield I believe are highly likely to be great picks and franchise QB's imo.

4.)  Without Beane's forward thinking we would only have one 2nd and one 3rd right now.  We have the draft capital to move up and still have a 2nd and 3rd rounder this year.

5.)  We'll have comp picks next year that could easily allow us to either move into the 2nd round if need be and continue to build this team around our franchise QB. 

Maybe true.  I am somewhat risk averse.  I like Mayfield, but he is no sure thing.  Rosen certainly is a talented passer and very smart.  If he is “all that”, though why would Cleveland take Darnold instead and why wouldn’t Jets or Broncos trade up as they have as much to offer as the Bills do.

[McNubbins]

No risk it no biscuit.

[OldTimer1960]

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

The scary part of this list is that there are actually no real true sustained hits...YET.  Agree, Watson, Wentz and Goff are all exciting young players right now.  However, its way too early to crown Watson, he had a few hot games, but so have a plethora of other NFL QB's, including one you listed here like RG3 that never sustained success.  He is also coming off his 2nd torn ACL now too that he has to over come.  I like Watson and pulling for him as I really like watching him play, but way too early to be a "hit" as not enough of a sample size and now dealing with yet another serious knee injury.

 

Goff and Wentz made great strides in their 2nd years, but even they are early to really know if they are truly a hit.  Wasn't that long ago people like RG3, Kapernick, Tannehill, etc were all the future in the NFL and got big contracts just to flame out before they were 30 (Kap and RG3 aren't even in the league anymore).  By no means am I predicting that, and in fact I do think Wentz has top 5 QB potential, just stating that all the best examples of hits that you called "great" are from last 2 years and haven't had more than a partial season of great play really.  Wentz to me is the prize of the two, I am still skeptical on Goff and fear he was the product of the genius of McVay and all the weapons they have.

 

Everyone else has mostly been busts with the exception of Mahomes who has barely played.  Bridgewater was ok, not great, before the injuries started happening, so he is a really big question mark...can he get back from the injuries is hard enough..then he still needs to be better than he was before he was hurt.  A lot to ask after the gruesome injuries he had.  

 

I still am very much hoping we trade up, and the guy I personally want the most is Baker.  But its still a scary list you provided with few examples to feel good about other than the new exciting ones who just haven't had enough time to cement their career paths yet.

 

 

Outstanding post.  Great perspective.

[Doc Brown]

19 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Maybe true.  I am somewhat risk averse.  I like Mayfield, but he is no sure thing.  Rosen certainly is a talented passer and very smart.  If he is “all that”, though why would Cleveland take Darnold instead and why wouldn’t Jets or Broncos trade up as they have as much to offer as the Bills do.

I'm not sure who Cleveland takes.  They very well could take Rosen and I don't want to trade up for Darnold or Allen.  It would have to be the right situation to move up and I'd be disappointed if we didn't move up, but would take solace in the fact that we have six picks in the first three rounds.  As far as the Broncos and Jets, we have more draft capital than them despite their higher 1st round pick.    

Edited March 11, 2018 by Doc Brown

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, /dev/null said:

And in neither of those drafts would trading up resulted in a franchise QB.  With the exception of Stafford in 2009 who went #1 overall and there was no way the Lions were going to part with that pick anyway

 

I don't know if either of these drafts would have resulted in a franchise QB.  One can never go back.

 

I will say that overall, I think QB development has sucked in the league and especially on the Bills, and the CBA limitations on off-season coach contact make it worse.

[reddogblitz]

9 hours ago, Tsaikotic said:

How is Trubisky a bust already?

 

How aRe Wentz and Goff great already?

[OldTimer1960]

28 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I'm not sure who Cleveland takes.  They very well could take Rosen and I don't want to trade up for Darnold or Allen.  It would have to be the right situation to move up and I'd be disappointed if we didn't move up, but would take solace in the fact that we have six picks in the first three rounds.  As far as the Broncos and Jets, we have more draft capital than them despite their higher 1st round pick.    

Not true for the Jets and marginally true for the Broncos.

 

The top of the 3rd pick for Taylor helps a lot, but 21 in each round is worth a lot less than the 5th or 6th pick in each round.

[USABuffaloFan]

9 hours ago, Foxx said:

your right. lets just continue to do the things we have done for the last 17 years because they have worked so very well.

What have Bills done for QB's Losman, EJ, Edwards. Free Agents or trades, Fitz, Orton, Cassell, Bledsoe, Taylor. I would not call this Good tries. Outside of Bledsoe, where did we ever really get a true Number 1 talent guy in here. Bills have a shot at Qb's 10th pick on, sit back and see what happens. If they want guarantees, Cousins can play, pay to play. Trade for Rivers or Luck, bet they can be gotten. Don't use Buffalo as what to do or don't do for QB's. We rarely risk anything for QB's. Bledsoe and Rob were guys we gave up 1st picks for. Kelly, Losman and EJ the QB's we drafted with 1st picks. That is not a great track record.

9 hours ago, Pbomb said:

Or maybe continuing to not address the qb situation properly is irresponsible

What don't you understand about how many QB's don't make it drafted in the 1st round high. None of these guys are Luck or Manning. Want better odds, get a valid veteran like McCown, draft a guy in late 1st or second round and another guy in 4th and later. Have a wide open camp. Then maybe you have gotten someone better than Taylor for next year. Even that is a 50/50% chance at best. The only sure way is maybe Cousins, trading for Rivers or Luck. There is no other way.