Mikie2times Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 13 hours ago, NewDayBills said: Well, take Goff, Wentz and Watson off the list then, which makes my reasoning behind this thread even more meaningful. Fans want to trade the farm for a QB when the odds of landing a franchise guy is 33% at best. Bust rate doesn't change if you trade up. 30-35% is about the likelihood of getting the right guy in the top 10. Multiple studies have been posted on this. Trading up doesn't reduce or increase the likelihood of finding a hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boyst Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Ryan L Billz will haunt you for Mitch Trubisky slander. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akm0404 Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 In this thread we learn that some draft picks turn out well, and some others don't turn out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elite Poster Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 Trades into the top 5 are a lot different than trades in the range of picks 20-32. Bad analysis. You are lumping top prospects with guys that were the 3-4th guy taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cba fan Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 14 hours ago, NewDayBills said: Well, take Goff, Wentz and Watson off the list then, which makes my reasoning behind this thread even more meaningful. Fans want to trade the farm for a QB when the odds of landing a franchise guy is 33% at best. That is why you do it 3 years in a row. 33% at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elite Poster Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 4 hours ago, Zebrastripes said: You said 5th to 10th QB taken not 5th to 10th pick very very very big difference. I mean that really changes everything. Foles Stanton and keenum were all backups who only played due to injuries. Cutler was out of the league until Tannehill blew out his knee. Wentz was the number 2 overall pick. Brees was the 2nd qb taken in his class Rodgers was also the 2nd Qb taken Big Ben was 3rd Carr was the 4th QB off the board Believe me I'm well aware of the abnormal situation like Brady panning out on the league. The odds are the more qbs you watch come off the board without taking one the worse your chances of finding a good one are. You are absolutely correct. People weren't going crazy on QBs in the draft before because running every play used to work. Now you need a QB and therefore more QBs go earlier in the draft. To be honest, which pick it is does not matter. What does matter is if you get one of the top 2-3 prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJS Posted March 12, 2018 Share Posted March 12, 2018 16 hours ago, NewDayBills said: When is the last time we've had this many picks? We can literally load up and build a powerhouse. Trading that away for nothing, why do it? I could see moving up 8-10 spots because that would not put a dent in our capital, but moving in the top 10 like some want is irresponsible. You can't have a powerhouse without a QB. Get the QB. Then things will start working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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