Never Trade Up -- Here's Why

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

trade up, get your QB, period!

[Dadonkadonk]

2 hours ago, Foxx said:

right. because the team that just won the SuperBowl, traded up into the top 2, 2 years ago.  

And won the SB With a FA QB 

[BuffaloRush]

NEVER NEVER NEVER trade up.  You might end up with a QB like Carson Wentz or Jared Goff.

 

After the talent we’ve trotted out at QB, that’s one risk we can’t take

[Lurker]

3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

Yes- going out and making a move might be the end of Beane but surely not crippling for the franchise. We just cut/traded/didn’t re-sign every day one and two pick made across 4-5 years and still made the playoffs. 

 

Thanks to Andy Dalton 

 

A QB-trade up/bust would surely doom this GM/HC combo.   No way this fan base/owner is patient enough to just shrug it off.

 

But as you say, the Not For Long league would just keep flowing and the Bills could easily be mediocre for another 5-6 years...

[White Linen]

1 minute ago, cage said:

 

I didn't have an objective in looking for anything particularly related to QBs.  What gave me the idea to do this was a different thread a couple days ago that was suggesting that a trade-up was worth it for a "future HOFer" regardless of position.  The OP in that thread was suggesting G Quenton Nelson.  I wanted to see if OL or any particular position warranted any thought like that.  The analysis was a comparison of all positions, but just devolved into talk about QB for obvious reasons...

 

You'll agree that these numbers are skewed by QB's being taken out of draft order to do the enormous importance of the position?  Hence teams climb over each other and players with higher grades to get one.

[NoSaint]

1 minute ago, Lurker said:

 

Thanks to Andy Dalton 

 

A QB-trade up/bust would surely doom this GM/HC combo.   No way this fan base/owner is patient enough to just shrug it off.

 

But as you say, the Not For Long league would just keep flowing and the Bills could easily be mediocre for another 5-6 years...

 

But ultimately, Beane isn’t the bread winner in my house so if he gets fired and in 3 years someone else takes a swing... big deal? 

 

Im not pointing this one at you but there seem to be some posters that are scared that if we miss we are about to start another decade without a chance at the playoffs. It’s not ideal but it’s not the end of the world as long as you are willing to move on from the bust

[BringBackOrton]

4 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

While this is true, the reality is that the draft is such a crap shoot, even at the top, that trading up is probably not going to be a winning proposition for most teams that do it even for a QB.  QBs who are the consensus #1 pick are about as close to "can't miss" picks as possible; they hit at about 80% since 2000.  Even QBs drafted in positions 2-4 fail almost 50% of the time while QBs from 5-32 hit at about 25%.  Except for Wentz, teams trading up for QBs outside the #1 pick have found duds instead of studs over the last 15 years, including JP Losman (2004), Mark Sanchez (2009), and Robert Griffin III.

 

This year there's not even a consensus #1 QB, so drafting a QB is even more dicey, and trading up is nothing but a crap shoot.

 

 

This is the attitude that has resulted in the Bills' failure to find a good QB for a quarter of a century.   Drafting a QB in the first round just to draft one is a flawed strategy because sometimes there just isn't a good one available (EJ Manuel in 2013).  Trading up to do that is even stupider (JP Losman in 2004).   The Bills need to approach drafting a QB with the primary goal of winning football games, not to placate fans to sell tickets, which is what they've done in the past.

 

 

The Bills missed on a trade up in 2004, the Jests missed on a trade up in 2009, and Washington missed on a trade up in 2012.

 

 

Well, if I win the top prize in Powerball, I'm set for life, too.

 

 

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

That's not what I said at all.  I said drafting a first round QB was risky, but that drafting a QB who was the #1 consensus pick was a pretty safe bet.  I also said that trading up to draft a first round QB, especially in a year like 2018 where there's no clear consensus best QB, is even riskier.  I also said that the Bills have drafted QBs in the first rounds in the last quarter century for the wrong reason: to put butts in the seats -- and that's cost them big time, primarily in the lost opportunities to draft QBs who could have actually helped them win games: Aaron Rodgers (2005), Jay Cutler (2006), Joe Flacco (2008), Teddy Bridgewater (2014), and Derek Carr (2014) -- all useful QBs who were better than Losman or Manuel.  Keep in mind that when a team drafts a first round QB, they aren't going to draft another first round QB for about 4 years unless said QB is a bust like a JaMarcus Russell or Johnny Manziel.

 

 

I hope you are right.  Like the OP, I'm not opposed to trading up a few spots to take Mayfield, but I don't think it's possible for the Bills to get into the Top 4 short of sacrificing too much for a QB who's more likely to bust than not, which would likely be Rosen.  If Jackson was available at #21, I'd take him (not at #22!).  I don't know if I'd spend a first rounder on Allen or Rudolph.

 

 

In case you missed it, that team was so good it overcame numerous injuries to key players, including their starting QB, and won the SB with a backup QB.  .

There's no evidence that EJ or JP were drafted for ticket sales.  That's a hindsight argument because they ended up sucking.

 

This "when a team drafts a first round QB they have to wait" nonsense is just that.  There is zero, and I mean ZERO reason to let your decision have consequences like that.

 

The argument of "waiting" to let a QB fall to us can just as easily result in an EJ/JP/Paxton Lynch/Manziel scenario.  You go get your #1 guy, not the 4th or 5th best QB that happens to fall to you because you're too chicken **** to take a chance.

[Domdab99]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloRush said:

NEVER NEVER NEVER trade up.  You might end up with a QB like Carson Wentz or Jared Goff.

 

After the talent we’ve trotted out at QB, that’s one risk we can’t take

 

What makes you think one year of success is going to mean ten+ years of QB stability for those two teams? 

 

Small sample size is small. 

[Lurker]

2 minutes ago, White Linen said:

 

You'll agree that these numbers are skewed by QB's being taken out of draft order to do the enormous importance of the position?  Hence teams climb over each other and players with higher grades to get one.

 

Not really.   The group-think of draft ratings, buzz, media and fan pressure generally push QBs up each year, causing teams to irrationally say 'It will be worth it this time."   

 

The QBs go where they're slotted and the teams that trade up are the ones who go out of order...

[BringBackOrton]

7 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

 

What makes you think one year of success is going to mean ten+ years of QB stability for those two teams? 

 

Small sample size is small. 

Lol so basically we won't know if trading up for Wentz was a good move until he's a HoFer 10 years from now?

 

That's a reasonable expectation.  MVP candidate and key contributor to a Super Bowl winning team.  Not enough!

Edited March 3, 2018 by jmc12290

[Domdab99]

2 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Lol so basically we won't know if trading up for Wentz was a good move until he's a HoFer 10 years from now?

 

That's a reasonable expectation.  MVP candidate and key contributor to a Super Bowl winning team.  Not enough!

 

If he was so key, how'd they win the SB without him?

[RochesterRob]

4 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

It all depends on the circumstances of where the team is as well as the player and position involved.  I have a feeling that the Falcons aren't regretting the decision to trade up for Julio Jones and KC will be ecstatic if Mahomes turns out to be an excellent QB.

  I am glad somebody is using the word "if" when talking about Mahomes.  There has been too much talk about us bypassing Mahomes as though he already accomplished something in the NFL.

[Rico]

11 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

But ultimately, Beane isn’t the bread winner in my house so if he gets fired and in 3 years someone else takes a swing... big deal? 

 

Im not pointing this one at you but there seem to be some posters that are scared that if we miss we are about to start another decade without a chance at the playoffs. It’s not ideal but it’s not the end of the world as long as you are willing to move on from the bust

No doubt that is the key.

[BringBackOrton]

Just now, Domdab99 said:

 

If he was so key, how'd they win the SB without him?

Because they also had a good team.

 

Carson Wentz finished with the second most passing TD's in the NFL last year, and he only played 13 games.  They only lost two of those games.  He was almost assuredly going to be the MVP pre-injury.

 

Saying that "we're not sure if that's good" is just so asinine it's bizarre.  Don't let EJ ruin your life.  We can get a good QB.

[FearLess Price]

 

Trade up and draft the future of this franchise. We have been passing on top QBs, trading back, etc...for the whole drought. That hasnt worked. Why would you want them to keep doing that? It makes no sense.

[Domdab99]

9 minutes ago, jmc12290 said:

Because they also had a good team.

 

Carson Wentz finished with the second most passing TD's in the NFL last year, and he only played 13 games.  They only lost two of those games.  He was almost assuredly going to be the MVP pre-injury.

 

Saying that "we're not sure if that's good" is just so asinine it's bizarre.  Don't let EJ ruin your life.  We can get a good QB.

 

He had a great year, I agree. But we don't know if that will continue. Word is he won't even be ready to stat the season. And when he does he play, he'll be in a brace. I'm just saying that it could be that Wentz is in the right system and under the right coaches. How would he be doing in, say, the Buc's organization? 

 

Also, one, maybe two instances of trading up for a QB where it works does not cancel out the many, many times teams have traded up for a QB and it did not work out. Hello, JP Losman!

[KD in CA]

It's not trading up that's the problem.  It's trading up for players like JP Losman, John McCargo and Sammy Watkins.

 

[BringBackOrton]

1 minute ago, Domdab99 said:

 

He had a great year, I agree. But we don't know if that will continue. Word is he won't even be ready to stat the season. And when he does he play, he'll be in a brace. I'm just saying that it could be that Wentz is in the right system and under the right coaches. How would he be doing in, say, the Buc's organization? 

 

Also, one, maybe two instances of trading up for a QB where it works does not cancel out the many, many times teams have traded up for a QB and it did not work out. Hello, JP Losman!

Hello Deshaun Watson.  Goff.  We may be adding Mahomes to the party as well.

 

Do you think the Eagles will give back the Super Bowl trophy if Wentz has a brace next year? What are you even trying to argue here?  He got hurt, ergo, don't draft players because they might get hurt too?

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

39 minutes ago, Dadonkadonk said:

And won the SB With a FA QB 

 

so you don't credit wentz for 11 wins before the injury in helping them to reach the postseason? you really believe he would of done worse then the FA QB in his stead?

 

they still likely would of been champions had wentz finished the season.

 

In 13 starts, Wentz finished the year with 3,296 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, 7 interceptions, a 60.2 completion percentage, and a 101.9 quarterback rating.

 

TRADE UP!!

 

get your QB

Edited March 3, 2018 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Domdab99]

1 hour ago, jmc12290 said:

Hello Deshaun Watson.  Goff.  We may be adding Mahomes to the party as well.

 

Do you think the Eagles will give back the Super Bowl trophy if Wentz has a brace next year? What are you even trying to argue here?  He got hurt, ergo, don't draft players because they might get hurt too?

 

Again, We don't know if Watson or Mahomes are going to be long-term solutions at QB yet. They look good, but who knows? 

 

And yes, I'd certainly like to be in the Eagles' shoes. It must be nice to win a SB. But I really don't think they won because they traded up for Wentz. Like you said, the rest of the team was good, too. 

 

All OP is saying that the stats clearly say DON'T TRADE UP FOR A QB. Recent history excepted, of course. It's not a clear cut decision. I want a QB as bad as you, I just don't want to give away the farm to do it. 

Edited March 3, 2018 by Domdab99